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Ascend Consultancy Weekly Team Perspective: Advanced Air Mobility – Snapshot April 2024

Cirium Fleets Analyzer logged slightly below 450 new order commitments for the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector since the beginning of this year.


Ascend analyst Tim Chun Hing Li

By Tim Li, Aviation Analyst at Cirium Ascend Consultancy

As we move into the second quarter of the year, the Cirium Fleets Analyzer database logged slightly below 450 new order commitments for the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector since the beginning of this year, taking the total to slightly over 13,500. The AAM market is inching closer to some of its initial target dates for operation, including Volocopter vowing to begin operations during the Paris Olympics 2024. Some progress has been made in the first quarter, with EHang kickstarting its public sale of the E216-S after obtaining the world’s first type certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), and other OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) obtaining production organization approvals (POAs) from their regulators, which further paves the way towards production of the designs. However, there is still no absolute certainty that these operations will be realised.

Data coverage Includes:

Market GroupingManufacturerTypeComment
eVTOL – UAV/UASBETA TechnologiesALIA-250 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAMSL AeroVertiiaNewly added
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAerofugiaAE200 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityArcher AviationMidnight 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAscendance Flight TechnologiesAtea 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAutoFlightProsperity 1 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityBETA TechnologiesALIA-250 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityCrisalion MobilityIntegrityNewly added
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityDuFour AerospaceAero3 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEHangEH216 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEHangVT-30 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEve Air MobilityEve 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityHorizon AircraftCavorite X7Newly added
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJaunt Air MobilityJourney 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJoby AviationS4 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityLilium GmbHLilium Jet 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityManta AircraftANN2 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOdys AviationOdys eVTOL 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOverair IncButterfly 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityPlanaCopterPlane CP-01 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySirius AviationSirius Jet 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySkyDriveSD-05 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityTCab TechE20 eVTOL 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVertical Aerospace Group LtdVX4 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloCity 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloConnect 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityWisk Aero LLCCora 
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityXTI Aircraft CompanyTriFan 600 
Business Electric – Multi EngineElectraElectra eSTOL 
Business Electric – Multi EngineAirflowM200 
Business Electric – Multi EngineBye AerospaceeFlyer 800 
Business Electric – Multi EngineElectronElectron 5 
Business Electric – Multi EngineEviationAlice 
Business Electric – Single EngineBETA TechnologiesCX300 
Business Electric – Single EngineVoltAeroCassio 330 
Regional Electric – SmallAura AeroERA 
Regional Electric – SmallHeart AerospaceES-19Programme cancelled, and revised to ES-30
Regional Electric – SmallHeart AerospaceES-30 
Regional Electric – SmallJektaPHA-ZE 100 
Regional Electric – SmallLYTE AviationLA-44 Skybus 
Regional Electric – SmallMaeve AerospaceMaeve 01Programme cancelled, OEM revised to M80*

eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

The total number of order commitments captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer for the eVTOL sector is now slightly above 10,300. EVE Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to stand out as the OEMs with the most order commitments, even though they did not record any new in the past nine months. These new commitments are predominantly from the Asia Pacific region and are lacking familiar names like lessors that previously logged.

Source: Cirium Core, as of 3 April 2024

Source: Cirium Core, as of 3 April 2024

Sustaining Financing: A Vital Component for Industry Growth

According to Cirium data, there has been a decrease in the rate of growth of order commitments. In the past six months, the net growth of total commitments amounted to just slightly below 600 units, with around 80% of activity from the Asia Pacific region. Overall, these order commitments observed represents a decline of over 50% compared to the previous six-month period. However, during this stage in the development cycle, a slowdown in the rate of orders is not unexpected.

As per Cirium’s Fleets Analyzer database, there are currently more than 20 designs registered that have received order commitments, with new entrants continuing to emerge. These factors indicate that enthusiasm towards the AAM market has not yet started to fade.

Source: Cirium Core, as of 3 April 2024

An order commitment generally means payment is committed to be made in the future and is often subject to agreed terms and conditions. An example of such a condition is meeting development timelines. While commitments can increase the confidence of investors and eventually translate into payments, they are often not an immediate source of cashflow for the OEM. Product development, particularly of such pioneering technology, is both lengthy and costly. To achieve any milestones set out to fulfil promises and thereby the ability to realise the AAM vision, the OEMs will continue to require new financing, either from their parent companies, governments or existing/new investors.

A decrease in direct financing would have significant implications for the future development of the industry. In order to ensure continued support for product development and marketing efforts, consolidation could be something to watch for in the near to medium-term future.

Business Electric – Multi Engine

Source: Cirium Core, as of 3 April 2024

The total tally of order commitments for the electric business aircraft sector now stands over 3,200, marking an increase of approximately 500 commitments in the last six months. The Dallas-based JSX Airlines accounts for over 330 of them, spreading across types including Aura Aero’s ERA, Electra’s eSTOL, and Heart Aerospace’s ES-30. Electra’s eSTOL also received an additional commitment from US-based regional aircraft operators Surf Air (90), as well as from India’s Jet Set Go (50).

*The European startup Maeve Aerospace has revised its strategy and introduced a new concept, an 80-seater hybrid-electric aircraft dubbed the M80. This means that the original M01 44-seater is now on hold. It remains uncertain whether the initial orders will be transferred.

Most designs for this larger gauge concepts have now diverted from the vision of the aircraft being fully powered by electricity alone, and are instead based on a hybrid concept.

The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us for more information.

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