Category: Industry

  • The Alaska – Hawaiian Merger

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    YIRU ZHANG
    Yuri Zhang

    Yiru Zhang, Senior Valuation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    The recent termination of the JetBlue and Spirit Airlines merger has brought more attention to the merger of Alaska and Hawaiian Airlines. There are some similarities but also many differences in the two cases. The unsuccessful case might not be a bad sign for Alaska and Hawaiian.

    Route

    Alaska Airlines ranks as the fifth largest passenger airline in the US. It serves more than 100 destinations across North America, with three hubs including San Francisco International Airport (SFO), Portland International Airport (PDX), and Seattle Tacoma International Airport (SEA).

    Meanwhile, Hawaiian Airlines operates a wide network centered around Hawaii to major cities in Asia Oceania, and North America. Key routes are Honolulu to Tokyo, Maui to Seattle, and Honolulu to Los Angeles.

    Once the merger is completed, Alaska’s strong presence on the west coast combined with Hawaiian’s Hawaii-centered routes can bring more flexibility for travelers to connect among destinations covered, for example, Tokyo – Hawaii – San Francisco.

    Source: Alaska Airlines

    Fleet

    Optimization of the fleet structure is one thing that Alaska and Hawaiian must consider. Alaska’s fleet consists of two Boeing Single-Aisle types, 737 NG and 737 Max, with 80 more 737 Max orders through 2027 (which may be delayed due to the recent investigation). Hawaiian operates a fleet with Boeing 717 for domestic short-haul flights, and Airbus A321 and A330 for long-haul transpacific routes.

    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

    In 2023 Hawaiian announced its plan to replace the 717 fleet by early 2024, but due to the increasing demand, there are still 18 717 currently in service. The previously mentioned potential replacements include A220 and E195 E2, while as the merger goes on, it was widely believed that the final pick would be 737 Max. However, given the recent turmoil at Boeing, this is becoming uncertain again.

    Hawaiian Airlines holds firm orders for 18 787-9 aircraft as of today. After the first delivery of the 787-9 earlier this year, Hawaiian Airlines now has three different aircraft types for long-haul missions. Hence, they need to decide which one to keep, to optimise cost on maintenance, training, etc.

    JetBlue-Spirit

    The JetBlue and Spirit merger was blocked by the Justice Department due to a violation of antitrust law. Spirit Airlines has benefitted its travelers by operating as an ultra-low-cost carrier. According to the US Bureau of Transportation (US DOT), in 2023 Spirit Airlines had 5.1% domestic market share. This means that if the merger happened, higher fares would apply to a large group of travelers which could potentially disrupt the market.

    From that perspective, their situation doesn’t seem to apply to the Alaska–Hawaiian case. According to the same statistics by USDOT, Alaska and Hawaiian rank fifth and tenth, respectively, with market shares of 6.4% and 1.7%. The combined 8.1% will still stay at fifth and far from United, which holds 16% shares.

    Source: US Bureau of Transportation

    Another difference is that the business models of Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines, or at least in terms of service, are not as different as they are between JetBlue and Spirit. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of opposition from either shareholders or passengers.

    At this point, it seems like there won’t be as many barriers for Alaska and Hawaiian compared to the earlier blocked merger. However, they still need to be careful about regulatory requirements, financial implications, and other issues for the merger to go through.


    SEE MORE ASCEND CONSULTANCY POSTS. LEARN MORE ABOUT Cirium Fleets Analyzer. OR FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US.

  • 737-800 Freighter Conversions; Exuberance Abating?

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Chris Seymore aviation market analysis
    Chris Seymore aviation market analysis

    Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Cargo conversions of the Boeing 737-800 have been a success story since the first aircraft was modified in November 2017, as the fleet approaches 250 aircraft in the second quarter of 2024. Yet there are concerns that there is now some oversupply emerging. This may be borne out by the fact that 45 aircraft are currently parked.

    737-800 Annual Cargo Conversions 2017-2023

    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

    The number of aircraft converted annually has steadily increased, with a new peak of 72 aircraft modified during 2023. There are three programmes available, from Boeing, Aeronautical Engineers (AEI) and IAI-Bedek. Boeing’s -800BCF has proven to be the most popular, accounting for almost two thirds of conversions, followed by AEI at 27% and IAI with just 7%. Three quarters of aircraft have been converted at MROs in China, notably in Jinan, Shanghai and Guangzhou.

    The -800 freighter is now in service with 62 operators in 38 countries, notably in Europe, China and the rest of Asia-Pacific. It will soon surpass the combined conversions of the predecessor 737-300/400SF; the extra pallet and 10% more volume than the -400SF has made the -800 a popular successor. Yet three quarters of conversions have actually been for growth rather than replacement, mainly to cater for expanding e-commerce demand.

    Operating lessors have largely driven the conversion market, accounting for almost 80% of business to date.

    Direct conversion orders by airlines/integrators have been limited, with ASL Group, China Postal and DHL the largest customers.

    The popularity of the conversion with lessors is evidenced by some thirty different entities modifying their aircraft. AerCap leads with a quarter of conversions to date, followed by BBAM at 10%.

    Driving the increase in conversions, especially in 2021-22 was the availability of passenger feedstock aircraft as the market struggled to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Surplus mid-life+ aircraft, typically after two leases, had conversion as an attractive option to extend their useful life. The average age at conversion has been 19 years in the past two years and across all conversions the ages have ranged between 10 and 25 years.

    But this scenario has now shifted, as airlines are struggling to add passenger capacity due to delays in getting new aircraft, due to supply-chain problems and the ongoing Max issues.

    Thus lessors are seeing much more activity in the passenger market, with lease extensions and being able to quickly place aircraft coming off lease. AEI noted late last year that it was seeing some conversion slot deferrals and indeed converted fewer -800 aircraft in 2023 than a year prior.

    However, a slowdown in conversions may not be such bad news for supply and demand, as almost 20% of the converted fleet is parked.

    Of the 45 currently parked, six can be effectively excluded as they are in Russia. Of the remaining 39, 11 are with airlines or integrators and most are yet to enter service post conversion. This leaves 28 lessor aircraft, of which 15 have been placed with lessees but are yet to enter service. Some of these were converted as long ago as mid-2022, indicative of the issues some lessors have had in placement. Thus just 13 are with lessors and have no future lessee yet identified; one of which was converted 15 months ago, so there is certainly some surplus of supply.

    This softening of demand has driven the Current Market Lease Rate down in the past three months, albeit they still remain close to the levels enjoyed in 2018/2019, as can be seen in the chart using data from our new Value Trends module.

    737-800 Freighter Market Lease Rate Trend

    Source: Ascend Value Trends; for 12-year old aircraft; mid year and current 2024

    Announced conversion orders halved last year to 34, but the backlog remains robust at around 120. The number converted in 2024 looks set to be lower than 2023, driven by the aforementioned feedstock issues, but the fleet is forecast to ultimately double, and conversions to continue into the 2030s.

    There remains the opportunity of significant replacement of over 200 737NGs and competition is limited. The rival A320 conversion programmes have gained limited traction to date as most focus is on the larger A321.

    So yes, there is some short-term surplus of converted 737-800s and impact on lease rates, but the headline number of 45 parked does not tell the whole story.


    SEE MORE ASCEND CONSULTANCY POSTS. LEARN MORE ABOUT Cirium Fleets Analyzer. OR FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US.

  • Airbus and Boeing’s Single-Aisle Successor Story

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Max Kingsley-Jones, Head of Advisory, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Passers-by to the GE Aerospace stand at February’s Singapore air show will see a scale model of what CFM thinks future turbine powerplants might look like. The GE Aerospace/Safran joint venture’s RISE open-fan concept probably holds more than few clues as to the propulsion technology for a future Airbus single-aisle.

    At the Airbus annual press conference earlier this month, CEO Guillaume Faury provided the most detailed update yet around Toulouse’s thinking for an A320 family successor. He clarified that this study is for an all-new “SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) airplane” which is separate to the “ZEROe” project – a sub-100-seater with hydrogen propulsion.

    Faury said the Airbus future single-aisle would be a “short- to mid-range” family with service entry targeted for the second half of the 2030s “that will rely on burning 100% SAF”. He explained that Airbus wants to use it to enable the industry’s transition from less than 1% SAF usage today to something much closer to 100% by 2050: “That’s the plane that will be in service at 2050.”

    While likely engine technology for this prospective aircraft was not discussed, the CFM RISE project clearly provides one potential avenue for Airbus. CFM says the technology demonstrator will have 100% capability with alternative energy sources such as SAF and hydrogen. It will serve as “the foundation for the next-generation CFM engine that could be available by the mid-2030s”. With its open-fan architecture, RISE has a target to reduce fuel burn and carbon emissions by 20% over today’s engines.

    Airbus and CFM plan to start testing a RISE technology demonstrator on an A380 around two years from now.

    The planned development timescale for the CFM next-gen powerplant matches that of Airbus. And one of the last times Airbus tested an advanced engine concept – the Pratt & Whitney GTF in 2008 – it went on to power the re-engined A320neo family.

    Cirium’s latest 20-year fleet forecast includes an assessment of the potential delivery stream for next generation single-aisles from Airbus and Boeing. We estimate a potential market for around 8,500 deliveries in the seven years from 2036, as production of today’s A320neo and 737 Max families will begin to decline. We expect the market to be split approximately 50/50 between the two protagonists.

    We can only speculate on the likely timing and make-up of seat sizes within these next-gen programmes. But Boeing’s current under-performance against Airbus in the single-aisle sector creates a more urgent need for a replacement, so our hypothesis is that Seattle would come to market slightly earlier.

    The initial offering could be a 180-seater from 2036, with smaller 150-seat and 125-seat versions to follow.

    Airbus could be around a year behind Boeing, bringing a family of 150-seat and 180-seat single-aisle successors from around 2037. A320neo and 737 Max family deliveries could conclude towards the end of the 2030s.

    Programme development is likely to take at least five or six years from go-ahead to the service-entry goal. So to meet the service-entry timeline OEMs would need to target securing commitments and a launch decision from the end of this decade at the latest. But the key pacing item – as ever – will be the progress of powerplant development and the timeframe engine OEMs set to achieve their performance and – crucially – durability goals.


    SEE MORE ASCEND CONSULTANCY POSTS. LEARN MORE ABOUT Cirium Fleet Forecast. OR FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US.

  • Why Production is the Key Aviation Metric to Watch in 2024

    Chris Wills, Head of Consultancy Operations, Senior ISTAT Appraiser, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    The conclusion that we are (mostly) still climbing is what came out of the latest Cirium Ascend Consultancy webinar, Are we still climbing? The 2024 Market Outlook. Moderated by Lalitya Dhavala, Valuations Manager, Rob Morris, Head of Consultancy and George Dimitroff, Head of Valuations discussed the recovery over 2019 of key elements of the market.

    In Summary

    • Traffic is still mostly in the climb, having almost reached 2019 levels in November, the slight dip to 2.5% is not yet indicative of a stall, but we should be conscious of geopolitical risks and macroeconomics.
    • Capacity is up and is projected to climb to be 6% above 2019 levels early in 2024.
    • The global passenger fleet is on the rise, already bigger than in 2019 and a different composition.
    • Aircraft utilisation is climbing, with monthly hours back almost to 2019 levels.
    • Parked inventory is decreasing with around 400 of the young aircraft in storage (temporarily) GTF powered aircraft or 737-9s, although few of the latter remain stored. 
    • Deliveries are struggling to climb. With both deliveries and first flights lower in January 2024 over January 2023 and notably lower than in 2019.
    • Demand for older aircraft continues to climb, with inventories, values and lease rates reflecting that,
    • Commercial backlogs are climbing but are not at the historical highs previously seen when normalised as a percentage of the installed fleet.
    • Based on the Cirium Fleet Forecast there is headroom for orders to climb but this will further increase an already significant backlog as deliveries lag target.
    • Despite anecdotal indications trading is only in a shallow climb.
    • Values and lease rates are climbing, with room for further lease rate growth if interest rates don’t come down quickly/significantly.
    • New aircraft pricing is climbing, which we saw post 9-11 and then collapsed but that might not be the case in this cycle.
    • Engine value as a proportion of the total value of new aircraft is climbing, driven by higher spare engine, overhaul and LLP pricing but that can only continue with an increase in new aircraft pricing, otherwise engine values and maintenance costs would need to slow their rate of climb at some point.
    • The key thing to monitor in 2024 is production, for now specifically progress towards planned increases, however we should also be mindful of the risk if OEMs raise production rates too quickly in the next 5 years, that could ruin the party of rising values and lease rates.
    • Boeing may be forced to accept a lower market share in terms of volume than previously, as there is now a clear focus on quality.
    • Thank you again to everyone who voted for us as the 2024 Appraiser of the Year!

    In More Detail

    Looking at passenger traffic the trend is still positive, however there was a softening in December over November, so globally was down 2.5% over 2019. Large domestic markets, including the US saw some softening of demand, while capacity increased, which is something to watch. Traffic flows are of course seasonal and while the figures to 2019 are December to December, the summer season will be significant in defining if the recovery is still on track.

    Geopolitical risks are ever present, and if anything, risk is increasing.

    Macroeconomics should also be considered but so far rising prices have not impacted demand trends.

    The small softening compared to November, which was almost back to 2019 levels is at least not yet indicative of a stall in recovery.

    While capacity growing faster than traffic is not healthy long term, it can also be a leading indicator of forecast growth. Scheduled capacity marginally passed 2019 levels at the end of 2023 and the projection is a 6% increase over 2019 by the end of the first quarter this year.

    The global passenger fleet is in the climb and has now surpassed the in-service fleet of 2019. It is important to note, that while larger, the fleet in 2024 is different to that of 2019, just one example being the retirement of effectively all 747-400s during the downturn.

    Not only has the fleet grown, the other key capacity metric, utilisation has increased as well. Aircraft monthly hours flown are now nearly back to 2019 levels.

    The parked inventory is decreasing and while there is a portion that won’t return to service there are a significant number that may. Prime candidates are those that have been in storage for less than 2 years, as well as those less than 15 years old. That said, there are 1,000 aircraft over 15 years old, which typically we would not expect to return to service, but given the current supply constraints, some may return. The A320neo and 737-9s are only temporarily out of service and while there will be a rolling average of around 300+ parked in the coming months, ultimately all will return to service.

    The supply of new aircraft is one area where the market is struggling to climb. Deliveries and first flights were lower in January 2024 than in January 2023 and notably lower than in 2019. There are a multitude of factors driving these challenges, despite target monthly delivery rates above the current levels both Airbus and Boeing seem unlikely to achieve them over the coming year. However, longer term oversupply could be an issue if either OEM is tempted to push for even higher production rates once they have achieved their planned targets in 2025 or 2026.

    Commercial backlogs are climbing, approaching 14,000 firm aircraft orders, although as a percentage of the installed fleets they are not at historic highs. Single aisle aircraft peaked in 2020 at around 85% of the fleet (albeit skewed by fleet disruption that year; prior peak was 77% in 2014), while for widebody aircraft this was felt in the previous downturn peaking in 2008 at over 70%.

    Based on the Cirium Fleet Forecast, there is more room for more orders to be delivered towards the end of the decade, but given the already significant backlogs and the delivery challenges facing the OEM’s (Original Equipment Manufacturer), some of which have come post the completion of the most recent Ascend forecast, how much room is there for more orders?

    While the rolling average of sales with lease attached is growing, partly impacted by reduced trading at the end of the year and compared with the anecdotal indications that came out of Dublin at the end of January it is a slower climb then might be expected.

    While not for every type, the majority Values and Lease rates are climbing. On a fleet-weighted average basis, the Market-to-Base Value ratio is higher than it was before Covid.

    While lease rates are growing, they are still following values to a large extent, and there is still room for them to rise further this year. While recent increases are remarkable in percentage terms form the depts of Covid, if we compare them to historical levels, lease rates are not really that high, when inflation and interest rates are considered. It is also worth noting that ownership costs are the fourth largest item in the Direct Operating Cost (DOC) pie for airlines (after labour, fuel and maintenance), so operators can absorb higher lease rates with less pain than their other rising costs.

    New Aircraft pricing is climbing after decades of stagnation, which is a trend we have seen before between 2003 and 2008, but they then collapsed with the Global Financial Crisis and never truly recovered. However, that might not be the case in this cycle for a couple of reasons. The backlog is much bigger and stretches into the 2030s, meaning that OEMs already have an element of escalation built in, which works in favor of the continued rise in new delivery pricing. While supply constraints continue, they support increasing new aircraft prices, however as these are overcome later in the decade and if OEMs start to over-produce, some of the gains could be reversed or the rise could flatten.

    The ratio of engine value to the value of a new aircraft is climbing, but that does not appear sustainable for much longer.  If new spare engine, overhaul and life limited parts (LLP) pricing continue to grow, aircraft values also have to go up, otherwise arbitrage could be created encouraging the parting-out of young aircraft. The solution is for airframers to raise new aircraft pricing consistently and engine manufacturers have to rely less heavily on aftermarket revenues and sell new installed engines for more.

    The key thing to monitor in 2024 and going forward is production rates. For now, there are clear challenges with meeting delivery targets, and higher production rates are desperately needed, but if production continues to rise too much into the end of the decade or beyond, it could create over-supply and pressure values and lease rates once again. Of course, new aircraft are needed to meet demand as well as for replacement, particularly if we are to meet sustainability targets.

    In terms of competition, we don’t see the duopoly going away and the market needs it both for capacity but to maintain a competitive pricing landscape.

    We also don’t see Boeing being able or willing (or needing to) reduce pricing significantly on the 737, having already discounted a lot of white tails after the Max grounding. Lower delivery rates mean higher unit costs. That said, compensation for any heavily delayed deliveries could be expected to reduce the real final price that airlines pay. While Boeing may have focussed on defending market share in the past, it’s current focus is clearly on quality and not quantity. In the past, we may have predicted an all-new aircraft programme launch if market share was to drop significantly for one OEM or the other, however with such large and long-term backlogs there seems less opportunity for this in the near term. Therefore, we might see Boeing accept lower market shares for the time being in terms of volume than we have in the last two decades.

    Thank you again to everyone who voted for us as Appraiser of the Year and we will continue to live up to this accolade in doing everything the most awarded appraiser would be expected to, and more!


    WATCH THE WEBINAR ON-DEMAND, HERE.

  • Decoding Airline Passenger Traffic

    Will Livsey
    Will Livsey

    Will Livsey, Senior Product Manager, Cirium

    Ticket sale data tells part of the traffic story. To understand the intricacies of airline passenger traffic, we need to delve deeper into the data. A comprehensive understanding of the entire shopping and purchasing process is required. Marketing, pricing, equipment, and route planning are all affected by the ticketing cycle.

    Each stage of this shopper-to-flyer journey can yield invaluable insights into the traveler experience. Aviation and travel experts can use this data to analyze, plan, and improve revenue and the passenger experience.

    Breaking Down the Ticketing Process

    Traffic data can be broken into five key areas: interest, booked, ticketed, settled and flown.

    Shopped
    Interest is the earliest indicator of future travel. Data is sourced from travel searches across thousands of websites or an airline’s own points of sale systems. Cirium provides shopping insights through its traveler search data.

    Booked
    An airline booking is a record or reservation of a passenger’s intent to fly at some point in the future. A booking occurs before a ticket is sold. They can be held, changed, or cancelled. However, most consumer booking tools require purchase at time of booking, so corporate travel and travel agents will still book without immediate purchase.

    Ticketed
    When the booking is purchased, an airline ticket is issued using an assigned fare – tickets are issued by travel agents and air carriers. Tickets can still be reissued or exchanged.

    Settled
    Funds are passed to the airlines.

    Flown
    Airlines record the passengers as they board their flight. Through scanning or collecting a paper or digital boarding pass. Most airports and governments require airlines to submit their flown ticket data from the boarding process.

    Ticketing Data Types and Sources

    MIDT (Marketing Information Data Transfer)
    MIDT data is made up of bookings from the major global distribution systems (GDS) including but not limited to Sabre, Amadeus, Worldspan Galileo, Abacus, TravelSky and many others. It includes most bookings, not made directly with the airline.

    MIDT provides a wealth of information, including booking details, passenger information and fare estimates. It allows analysts to gain insights into market trends, demand patterns, and competitor performance. MIDT data allows analysts to study booking trends over time. By examining the origin and destination patterns, airlines can identify popular routes and adjust capacity accordingly.

    TCN (ticket control number)
    TCN is the backbone of ticketing data, facilitating tracking and management of individual transactions. TCN ensures accurate record-keeping, assists in resolving passenger issues, and aids in the reconciliation of financial transactions. Revenue managers rely on TCN to analyze ticket sales at a granular level, optimizing pricing and revenue strategies.

    TCN data can be valuable for understanding the preferences and travel patterns of specific customers, facilitating personalized marketing efforts. It can also be used to detect and prevent fraudulent activities by monitoring unusual or suspicious patterns in ticket transactions.

    ASP/BSP (Airline Settlement Plan/Billing and Settlement Plan)
    ASP and BSP are industry-wide systems that facilitate the settlement of financial transactions between airlines and travel agents. These clearinghouses streamline the financial aspects of airline ticket sales, ensuring a transparent and efficient process for revenue collection. Analysts keen on understanding the financial landscape of the aviation industry find ASP/BSP data instrumental to understand revenue streams and cashflow.

    Civil aviation authority
    Primarily consisting of information collected at boarding, this traffic data is usually aggregated by the regional civil aviation authority, such as the U.S. Department of Transportation, Eurostat, and the UK CAA. It provides the most accurate passengers flown data. In many cases it also tracks customer complaints and service issues.

    Read more about traffic and scheduling tools and request a demo of Cirium data.

    Making Use of Airline Traffic Data

    Cirium traffic data is often used alongside schedules data and appended with demographic and regional data that provides insights into travel habits and traveler personas of local airports.

    Cirium Diio provides a full spectrum of data and reporting tools including schedules, demand indicators, booking data and flown data. It can be accessed through SAAS tools, APIs or provided through a custom data warehouse and integrated into an airport or airline’s existing systems.

  • North American Airlines in 2023: Riding the Winds of Change

    JIm Hetzel Director of Product Marketing
    JIm Hetzel Director of Product Marketing

    Jim Hetzel, Director of Product Marketing, Cirium

     As we reach the end of 2023, it is evident that this has been a significant year for the airline industry, particularly for North American carriers, which is the home to four of the five largest passenger airlines worldwide in terms of flight operations. The industry has experienced a whirlwind of developments, including a continuous increase in travel demand after the pandemic, strain on airport infrastructure, labor shortages, and rising fuel costs. Additionally, the diverse routes and varying weather conditions in North America present additional complexities for airline operations.

    Despite these challenges, North American airlines have excelled in maintaining high operational efficiency and punctuality. Their ability to navigate these complexities is a testament to their resilience and adaptability. In terms of arrival performance, the overall rate for 2023 was 74.45%, with approximately 400,000 more scheduled flights compared to 2022, which had an on-time arrival rate of 74.26%.

    Investment in technology, coupled with an unwavering commitment to customer service, undoubtedly contributed to the impressive on-time punctuality.

    North American airlines have successfully adapted to these market challenges, while meeting the continuous increase in travel demand. Their investment in technology, coupled with an unwavering commitment to customer service, undoubtedly contributed to the impressive on-time punctuality statistics for the year.

    Delta Air Lines once again claims the top spot in terms of performance, with 84.72% arriving on-time on over 1.5M flight operations. Following closely behind, and deserving honorable mention, was Alaska Airlines boasting an OTP of 82.25% on over 400,000 flights and American Airlines at 80.61% on over 1.9M flights. These airlines performed exceptionally over the course of the year overcoming tremendous travel demand and disruptive weather events. Congratulations to Delta Air Lines for their exceptional and consistent on-time performance!

    In 2023, North American airlines underwent a remarkable transformation. They skillfully navigated the dynamic market landscape and elevated their operations in the face of increasing air travel demand. As we look ahead to 2024, we anticipate sustained operational excellence as challenges arising from labor shortages and airport infrastructure are gradually addressed and resolved.


    Report highlights

    • Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running 
    • Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category 
    • Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors 
    • Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award 
    • Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
  • Helicopter Offshore Market – What Will the Future Deliver?

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Sara Dhariwal, Senior Aviation Analyst, Lead Appraiser – Helicopters & AAM, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    The spotlight is once again on the Sikorsky S-92A as concerns mount over the manufacturer’s ability to maintain the aircraft. The lack of parts supply has already prevented some of the type from returning to service. Norway’s energy minister Terje Aasland joined the debate in early 2024, suggesting to news outlet Energy Voice that “oil and gas activity may be hit by a lack of spare parts for S-92 helicopters”.

    Since the fatal crash of Airbus Helicopter’s H225 off the coast of Norway in 2016, the S-92A has been the main heavy helicopter operating in the oil and gas industry. Heavies play a crucial role as they possess the range and payload to complete a return journey to oil rigs furthest offshore without having to refuel.

    The current fleet of just under 200 S-92 helicopters therefore provide important support in transporting oil rig workers, and supplies, between shore and oil rig platforms. A disruption of its ability to operate could, at worst, disrupt the ability to continue to produce oil and gas.

    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

    The highlighted issue brings attention to the risks associated with relying solely on a single helicopter model, such as the S-92A, which possesses comparable payload and range capabilities.

    However, until recently, there was an abundance of aircraft available to fulfil the mission requirements due to excess capacity resulting from the prolonged downturn in the oil and gas industry.

    The increasing demand within the industry has resulted in a swift utilisation of the stored fleet. The storage rates for the S-92 helicopters have experienced a notable decline, reducing from an average of 15% between 2018 and 2022 to a mere 7% at present.

    As a result, and in addition to overhauls required to get stored aircraft back in service, the already operational S-92A helicopters are accumulating higher flight hours, leading to an accelerated need for overhauls.

    This situation creates a potential bottleneck for demand of parts and maintenance capacity.

    In 2015, a new category helicopters were introduced to the market – the super mediums. The category includes Airbus Helicopters H175 and the Leonardo AW189. While they do not have quite the range/payload combination of a heavy, they have proved themselves a worthy replacement of the S-92A on most routes.

    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

    The introduction to the market for the super mediums has so far been relatively slow. With a combined current fleet of just over 80 helicopters, no spare capacity, and a typical lead time of 18-24 months for new orders, they do not provide a short-term capacity solution when the S-92 is unavailable.

    The heavy/super medium categories are not the only type that have seen a sharp decline in deliveries for the offshore sector. The number of overall deliveries into the sector has reduced by over 70% in the past decade, compared to the previous 10-year period.

    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer & Cirium Helicopter Forecast

    Limited growth is predicted in the next decade, and the 2023 Ascend Helicopter Fleet Forecast suggests that focus will be on replacement of around 25% of the current fleet. That means a replacement of around 350 aircraft in the next 10 years, which would require an average of 35 deliveries per year. 

    There are two new types in the market such as the Airbus Helicopters H160 and yet-to-be-certified Bell 525 Relentless. They both have the ability to take some market share from the more established types.

    Even where new orders are an option, financing can be an issue. With the oil and gas downturn, dialogue about reducing reliance on fossil fuels and unfavourable contract terms from the oil majors are increasing investment uncertainty.

    Lessors have increased their share of the overall fleet operating in the offshore sector over the past decade. Lessors can be beneficial in raising finance and managing fluctuating capacity requirements, but a lessor-dominant market brings its own issues.

    Could the Coming Months Provide Some Clues as to the Future of the Sector?

    • Will there be an increase in order announcements, for what and from whom?
    • Will the start of the replacement cycle become more evident?
    • Will the lessors continue to increase market share, or will there be an increase in direct operator ownership?
    • Will oil majors step up to provide more stability?
    • Will there be an improvement in maintenance supply challenges?
    • What about further explorations vs renewables?

    This year is set to be another very interesting one for the helicopter industry and as always, the Cirium Ascend Consultancy team will be there to monitor the developments closely.

    Hear more from Sara as she welcomes special guests Junia Hermont, Líder Aviação, and Samantha Willenbacher, Bristow, to our upcoming webinar on the offshore market. To join them live on Thursday 14th March, register your place.


    SEE MORE ASCEND CONSULTANCY POSTS. LEARN MORE ABOUT FLEETS ANALYZER. OR FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US.

  • Cathay Pacific’s Demand for Manpower

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Eric Tamang
    Eric Tamang

    Eric Tamang, Valuations Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    In the height of the Covid-19 Pandemic, international travel took a severe impact as governments worldwide initiated national lockdowns. Places such as Hong Kong were hit even harder, as it does not have a domestic market to rely on.

    Based on Cirium Tracked Utilization data, the 7-day moving average of daily flights of Cathay Pacific, the de-facto carrier of Hong Kong, fell by 90% in early 2020.

    In order to reduce its cash burn, Cathay Pacific axed almost 6,000 jobs in October 2021, including some 600 pilots.

    They also closed all of their overseas pilot bases such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Australia and final one being the United States which closed in late 2022.

    Daily Tracked Cathay Pacific Flights – 7 Day Moving Average

    Source: Cirium Core, tracked utilization data filed January, 25, 2024

    Now that Covid-19 has become an endemic, demand for air travel has returned, and daily tracked flights have recovered close to pre-Covid levels. However, we can observe a decline in daily tracked flights from mid-December 2023 as Cathay Pacific cancelled at least 42 flights due to pilot illness.

    This chart below from Cirium’s database also shows that Cathay Pacific still has 21 aircraft in storage, about 10% of its entire fleet.

    Cathay Pacific Fleet

    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, 25 January 2024

    There are many reasons why commercial aircraft would be in storage. When we look at Cirium’s Ground Events analytics, we can see that at the time of writing this article (25th January 2024), Cathay Pacific does not have any aircraft going through heavy maintenance. However, it has 21 aircraft in storage – mainly as a result of pilot-shortages.

    Cathay Pacific Maintenance Events

    Source: Cirium Ground Events Analytics, 25 January 2024

    In late 2023, Cathay Pacific announced a plan to hire more than 5,000 employees, including 1,500 cabin crew and more than 800 cadet pilots, in 2023 and 2024 combined. However, it is struggling to hire people and as a result has been cancelling flights since Christmas 2023.

    The Hong Kong Aircrew Officers Association – a union of Cathay Pacific pilots – said that the current shortage of senior pilots was a result of Cathay Pacific’s decisions in 2020, when Covid-19 hit. At the time, the airline made “deep and permanent reductions to the pay of frontline staff.”

    Chinese New Year is just around the corner, falling between 10-24 February 2024.

    It is a peak period for travel, and Cathay Pacific has already cut a dozen flights a day on average until the end of February. It appears further flight cancellations are most likely inevitable.

    In their 2023 Interim Report, Cathay Pacific reported that they are “confident” to reach 100% capacity levels by the end of 2024. However, this is unlikely to be achieved without a successful recruitment campaign.

    FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US.

  • Cirium Ascend Wins Ninth ‘Appraiser of the Year’ Award 2024

    Aircraft Appraiser of the Year

    LONDON, UK – January 30, 2024Cirium Ascend Consultancy, part of the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics company, Cirium, has once again demonstrated its unparalleled expertise in aircraft appraisal by winning the coveted ‘Appraiser of the Year’ award at the Airline Economics Aviation 100 Global Leaders Awards 2024. This remarkable achievement marks the ninth time that Cirium Ascend Consultancy has been honored with this prestigious award, reinforcing its position as a leading consultancy in the aviation industry.

    The award, presented in Dublin at the Growth Frontiers conference, recognizes Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s unwavering commitment to excellence and innovation in aviation analytics and consultancy. This year’s accolade is particularly significant, as it reflects the company’s dynamic adaptation and resilience in the face of ongoing global challenges, including the evolving landscape of the post-pandemic aviation industry.

    Over the years, Cirium Ascend Consultancy has consistently raised the bar in aviation analytics, providing invaluable insights that have shaped the strategies of key players in the industry.

    The company’s comprehensive approach, combining cutting-edge technology with deep market knowledge, has been instrumental in offering precise appraisals and strategic advisory services.

    Cirium Aircraft Appraiser-Award

    The award further underscores Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s role in navigating the recovery and growth of the aviation market in 2024, amidst a rapidly evolving global landscape.

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s contributions extend beyond appraisals, encompassing various aspects of aviation analytics such as risk management, asset tracking, and sustainability evaluations.

    The firm’s innovative solutions, including CO2 emissions benchmarking and fuel consumption analysis, reflect its commitment to supporting the industry’s transition towards a more sustainable future.

    This year’s award also highlights Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s significant impact on aviation finance, with their analytics playing a critical role in smarter investment decisions. The firm’s data and insights have proven invaluable for banks, insurers, lessors, and other financial institutions in managing risk and maximizing opportunities.

    The 2024 ‘Appraiser of the Year’ award not only celebrates Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s achievements but also symbolizes the trust and confidence that the aviation community places in the firm. It is a recognition of their ability to deliver reliable and innovative solutions that drive the industry forward.

    Get more information about Cirium Ascend Consultancy and their award-winning services, here.


    About Cirium Ascend Consultancy
    Cirium Ascend Consultancy, a division of Cirium, offers market-leading expertise to help inform and drive successful strategies in the commercial aviation industry. With a global team of seasoned consultants and analysts, Cirium Ascend Consultancy delivers comprehensive data, expert insights, and tailored services that directly impact strategic investments and open avenues for growth in aviation.

    For Cirium media inquiries please contact media@cirium.com


  • Cirium Commends Delta Air Lines for Operational Excellence – 2024

    Following the release of Cirium’s On-Time Performance Report for 2023, Delta Air Lines has once again been named the most punctual North American airline. The airline recorded an impressive 84.72% punctuality, the best among North American airlines, maintaining a successful performance from the previous year.

    For the third year in a row, Cirium also presented the Atlanta-based carrier with the Platinum Award for Operational Excellence. This prestigious accolade is a testament to Delta’s unwavering commitment to punctuality and operational excellence. The Cirium Platinum Award, given to airlines that excel in on-time performance while navigating considerable operational complexities, reflects the hard work and dedication of Delta’s team.

    The Cirium Platinum Award is not just about on-time performance; it also considers the airline’s network, volume of flights, and the ability to limit the impact of flight disruptions on passengers. Delta’s accomplishment in these areas, particularly during challenging times for the airline industry, speaks volumes about its operational efficiency and customer-focused approach.

    An award presentation took place on January 24th and 25th during Delta LEAD 2024 Conference at the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, to mark their outstanding achievements.

    The LEAD 2024 Conference brought together 6,000 employees from Delta’s leadership team from across the company to discuss the airline’s objectives for 2024. This two-day conference set the tone for the year, discussing the airline’s finance, operations, people, customer experience (CX), and listening to external perspectives.

    Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO, presented Delta’s awards to Ed Bastian, CEO of Delta Air Lines along with six frontline team members representing all who make on-time performance a reality for Delta. Mike Malik, Cirium Chief Marketing Officer, Lydia Webb, Cirium Marketing Director, and Kirk Nagy, Cirium Enterprise Business Development Manager, were also in attendance.

    “At Cirium we have a team that is passionate about airline operations. Many have decades of airline experience; we understand the complexity and challenge of getting people to their destinations safely and on time. Delta’s accomplishment, particularly during challenging times for the airline industry, speaks volumes about its operational efficiency and customer-focused approach.”

    Jeremy Bowen, CEO of Cirium

    Congratulations to the entire Delta team for their hard work and dedication, which have contributed to this amazing success. Delta’s achievement sets a high standard for operational performance in the airline industry, and it is an inspiration for others. – Jeremy Bowen.


    Report highlights

    • Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running 
    • Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category 
    • Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors 
    • Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award 
    • Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

  • Celebrating Airline Performance and the 2024 Industry Outlook

    Jeremy Bowen, Chief Executive Officer, Cirium

    The airline industry has emerged from the shadows of the pandemic, showing signs of robust recovery and resilience. As we review the year 2023 and look forward to 2024, it’s clear that the sector is not just surviving but thriving in many aspects. 

    The 2023 On-Time Performance Review showcases the airline industry’s performance rebound. It’s a pleasure for Cirium to acknowledge the industry leaders of this resurgence.

    A special congratulations to Delta Air Lines for winning the prestigious 2023 Platinum Award for the third year in a row, achieving an impressive 84.72% on-time rate. 

    Cirium’s on-time performance analysis, a staple in the industry for over 15 years, has been pivotal in evaluating the punctuality of airlines and airports. In 2023, the industry saw significant growth, with over 32+ million scheduled passenger flights. This increase, coupled with an upsurge in seat capacity, underscores the sector’s expansion. As we look towards 2024, Cirium remains committed to delivering comprehensive and unbiased on- time performance (OTP) data. This information, derived from an extensive array of sources including airlines, airports, and civil aviation authorities, offers a neutral, third-party perspective. Our independent board of advisors, experts in the field, guarantees the accuracy and fairness of our reports, ensuring they reflect a true picture of the industry’s performance. 

    In reviewing 2023, global passenger numbers made a significant comeback, narrowly surpassing pre-pandemic levels by the peak summer months. This recovery, while uneven across different regions, marked a pivotal moment for an industry that had faced unprecedented challenges. The US and Western European markets led the way, with passenger revenues in the US domestic market reaching 20% above 2019 levels by the third quarter.

    This surge in demand, however, came with its own set of challenges, including increased competition and rising operational costs.

    Business travel, a key segment for the industry, continued to lag behind due to ongoing cost management and a growing focus on sustainability within corporate policies. This was reflected in the major Global Distribution Systems (GDS), where agency bookings remained below pre-pandemic levels throughout 2023. 

    Looking ahead to 2024, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The recovery is expected to continue, albeit at a slightly moderated pace. While passenger numbers might end slightly lower than pre-pandemic levels, revenue growth is projected to be robust, potentially surpassing 2019 figures. However, this optimism is tempered by the need for the industry to balance supply and demand effectively, especially considering the rising input costs. 

    The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China, has shown a delayed but steady recovery trajectory, contributing to the global upswing in demand. This regional growth is expected to play a significant role in driving the global industry forward in 2024. 

    However, the industry faces new challenges and uncertainties. The lessons learned from the pandemic, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions and environmental pressures, are shaping a new era of strategic thinking and operational efficiency in the airline industry.

    How airlines navigate these factors will be crucial in determining their success in the coming year.

    In conclusion, the airline industry is on a path to recovery, marked by significant strides in 2023 and a positive but cautious outlook for 2024.

    The Cirium team looks forward to providing more critical aviation data in 2024. The journey ahead is laden with opportunities and challenges, as the sector adapts to a rapidly changing global landscape. 

    Report highlights

    • Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running 
    • Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category 
    • Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors 
    • Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award 
    • Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
  • AAM Snapshot January 2024

    READ ALL OF THE LATEST UPDATES FROM ASCEND CONSULTANCY EXPERTS WHO DELIVER POWERFUL ANALYSIS, COMMENTARIES AND PROJECTIONS TO AIRLINES, AIRCRAFT BUILD AND MAINTENANCE COMPANIES, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INSURERS AND NON-BANKING FINANCIERS. MEET THE ASCEND CONSULTANCY TEAM.


    Pascal Chui
    Pascal Chui

    Pascal Chui, Valuations Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    At the turn of the year, the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) market reflected the changing seasons with a gradual cooling, influenced by spiking interest rates and the rising cost of capital. Yet, in the face of these headwinds, the number of commitments and orders recorded in Cirium’s database increased to over 13,000 as of 31 December 2023, with over 3,700 secured in the past 12 months.

    Data Coverage Includes:

    Market GroupingManufacturerTypeComment
    Regional Electric – SmallLYTE AviationLA-44 Skybus 
    Business Electric – Multi EngineElectronElectron 5 
    Business Electric – Multi EngineAirflowM200 
    Business Electric – Multi EngineBye AerospaceeFlyer 800 
    Business Electric – Multi EngineEviationAlice 
    Business Electric – Multi EngineElectraElectra eSTOL 
    Business Electric – Single EngineVoltAeroCassio 330 
    Business Electric – Single EngineBETA TechnologiesCX300 
    eVTOL – UAV/UASBETA TechnologiesALIA-250c 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEHangVT-30 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJoby AviationS4 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityManta AircraftANN2 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityWisk Aero LLCCora 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloConnect 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityTCab TechE20 eVTOL 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOverair IncButterfly 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAerofugiaAE200 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityPlanaCopterPlane CP-01 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityDuFour AerospaceAero3 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAutoFlightProsperity 1 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityBETA TechnologiesALIA-250 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySkyDriveSD-05 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEHangEH216 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJaunt Air MobilityJourney 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloCity 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityArcher AviationMidnight 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAscendance Flight TechnologiesAtea 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOdys AviationOdys eVTOL 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityXTI Aircraft CompanyTriFan 600 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityLilium GmbHLilium Jet 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVertical Aerospace Group LtdVX4 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEve Air MobilityEve 
    Regional Electric – SmallMaeve AerospaceMaeve 01 
    Regional Electric – SmallJektaPHA-ZE 100 
    Regional Electric – SmallHeart AerospaceES-19Programme Cancelled
    Regional Electric – SmallAura AeroERA 
    Regional Electric – SmallHeart AerospaceES-30 

    eVTOLs – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

    The competition is heating up, with Eve Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace‘s VX4 at the forefront. Notably, Eve has won a remarkable number of orders even without a full-scale test flight, showing strong investor confidence. At the same time, other start-ups like Archer, Jaunt Air Mobility, Ascendance Flight Technologies, Volocopter, and AutoFlight are also making waves, each with about 200 orders in the past 12 months, indicating a growing interest in these eVTOL types.

    Source: Cirium Fleet Analyzer, as at 31st December 2023

    The order commitment landscape presented a picture of ambition and strategy, with North America leading significantly at over 3,300 orders, driven predominantly by the USA. Asia-Pacific followed with nearly 2,300 orders, where India, China, and Japan were the top contributors. Europe’s total orders stood at around 1,700, with the UK accounting for the largest share. Latin America showed a substantial number of orders at 550, mainly from Brazil.

    Source: Cirium Fleet Analyzer, as at 31st December 2023

    EHang First to Achieve Type Certification

    In October 2023, EHang achieved a major milestone by receiving the world’s first type certification for an unmanned eVTOL, the EH216-S, from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC). EHang aims to transform the experience of aerial sightseeing. The EHang EH216 orderbook includes commitments from different general aviation and business operators across Asia, with Indonesia’s Prestige Aviation ordering 101 units, China’s Shenzhen Boling Holding Group at 95 units, Malaysia’s Aerotree Flight Services Sdn Bhd at 61 units and Japan’s AirX Inc at 50 units.

    Source: Cirium Fleet Analyzer, as at 31st December 2023

    Business Electric – Multi-Engine

    Source: Cirium Fleet Analyzer, as at 31st December 2023

    In the business electric sector, Electra’s eSTOL has received more than 1,100 order commitments, including from notable clients like the helicopter lessor Bristow Group. However, the identities of the majority of these order commitments remain undisclosed. Electra’s eSTOL completed its inaugural all-electric test flight on 11 November, followed by a hybrid-electric flight on 19 November. Unlike eVTOLs, Electra’s eSTOL requires only 1/10th the length of a traditional runway, thanks to its advanced blown lift technology. This feature enables Electra’s eSTOL to offer flights to locations that lack space for conventional runways, significantly expanding potential air travel destinations and operational flexibility.

    Contact us for more information.


    Sara Dhariwal

    Lead Appraiser – Helicopters & AAM

    Ascend analyst Tim Chun Hing Li
    Ascend analyst Tim Chun Hing Li

    Tim Chun-hing Li

    Aviation Analyst

    Pascal Chui
    Pascal Chui

    Pascal Chui

    Valuations Analyst

    YIRU ZHANG
    YIRU ZHANG

    Yuri Zhang

    Senior Valuations Analyst

    Eric Tamang
    Eric Tamang

    Eric Tamang

    Valuations Analyst

  • The Monthly On-Time Performance Report – December 2023

    FIND THE 2024 MONTHLY REPORTS, HERE.

    Learn more about Cirium On-Time Performance and download The 2023 Cirium On-Time Performance Review.
    Learn more about about how to improve Cirium data.
    Subscribe to never miss a new Cirium report.


    GLOBAL SUMMARY – December 2023

    While the majority of airlines saw a decrease in On-Time performance during the Christmas season, North American carriers maintained their supremacy in the global rankings in December. Despite a two-point decrease from the previous month, Delta Air Lines (DL) remained as the top airline in the Global category with an impressive OTP of 89.57%. Qatar Airways (QR) rose to second place with an OTP of 87.74%, which is a slight improvement from the previous month’s 86.06% OTP. United Airlines (UA) came in third place with an OTP of 85.80%, a near 3-point decline compared to last month’s performance. American Airlines (AA) slid to fourth place with an OTP of 84.31%, a 2-point decrease from last month’s performance. American Airlines was followed closely by Iberia (IB) with On-Time Performance of 84.30%. The Madrid-based airline, saw a near 2-point improvement over the previous month’s performance.

    In APAC, Thai AirAsia (FD) took the top place in the Asia-Pacific leaderboard with an OTP of 84.09%, an impressive 4-point improvement over last month’s performance. Philippine Airlines (PR) secured the second spot, which had previously been held by Vietnam Airlines, with an OTP of 83.08%, a 1-point decrease over previous month’s performance. Meanwhile, Singapore Airlines (SQ) maintained its position in third place with an OTP of 83.01%. ANA (NH) climbed to fourth place in December with an OTP of 82.59% which was a slight improvement over last month’s OTP of 81.14%. AirAsia (AK), the regional leader last month, regressed to fifth place in December with an OTP of 81.93%. This was approximately a 5-point decline in performance compared to the previous month.

    In North America, Despite the hectic holiday travel season and operations, Delta Air Lines (DL) as mentioned above concluded December strongly with an impressive OTP of 89.57%. United Airlines (UA) safely secured the second place with and OTP of 85.80%, albeit a near 3-point decline over last month’s performance. American Airlines (AA) remained in third place with an OTP of 84.31%, this was a 2-point decrease compared to the previous month’s performance. Despite the drops in United Airlines and American Airlines, these are still impressive numbers by the big three. Alaska Airlines (AS) finished in fourth position with an OTP of 83.12%, while Southwest Airlines (WN) ended in fifth place with an OTP of 80.76%, a nearly 4-point decrease over last month’s performance.

    In Europe, Vueling (VY) replaced Austrian (OS) as the new leader in Europe this month with an OTP of 86.04%, a minor decrease from previous month’s OTP of 86.31%. Iberia Express (I2) came in second place with an On-Time Performance of 85.73%, this was a 2-point improvement over last month’s result. Aegean Airlines (A3), a new name among the top Europe region ranking, safely secured the third spot with an OTP of 85.14%. Iberia (IB) ascended from its seventh-place last month to fourth place this month with an OTP of 84.30%, a nearly 2-point increase as compared to last month’s OTP. With a 5-point decrease from last month’s performance, Transavia France (TO), which fell to fifth place from its fourth spot with an OTP of 79.07%.

    In Latin America, Copa Airlines (CM) reclaimed the top spot in the Latin America region from Azul (AD) with an OTP of 86.46%, this was a massive 4-point improvement over last month’s performance. Azul (AD) slid to second place with an OTP of 82.35%, a 2-point decrease from last month’s performance. Avianca (AV) followed Azul in third place with an OTP of 82.19%, an impressive 5-point improvement over last month’s performance. LATAM Airlines (LA) and Gol (G3) concluded the month in fourth and fifth places with OTP of 81.04% and 77.75% respectively.

    In the Middle East and Africa and LCCs, Safair (FA) concluded December with an excellent OTP of 93.38%, leading both the Middle East & Africa region and the Low-Cost Carrier categories. Oman Air (WY) remained in second place this month with an OTP result of 89.15%, a 3-point decline from last month’s performance. Qatar Airways (QR) came in third place again with an OTP of 87.74%. Gulf Air (GF) secured the fourth spot with an OTP of 83.97%, this was nearly a 2-point improvement compared to last month’s OTP. Gulf Air (GF) was closely followed by Royal Jordanian (RJ) with an OTP of 83.93% for the month of December.


    GLOBAL SUMMARY – November 2023

    After a record-breaking Thanksgiving holiday traffic and impressive airline operations, it was no surprise that North American airlines led the global category in November. Three of the region’s biggest carriers improved their performances from the previous month and appeared in the top 5 ranking. Delta Air Lines (DL) maintained its dominance in the region with an impressive OTP of 91.29%. United Airlines (UA) followed in second place with an OTP of 88.44%. With an OTP of 86.65%, American Airlines (AA) finally joined the global leaderboard this month in third place. Qatar Airways (QR) and Azul (AD) joined their North American counterparts at #4 and #5 respectively in the Global category.

    In APAC, after its fifth place ranking last month, AirAsia (AK) made a near 5-point improvement in its performance this month and soared to the top of the Asia-Pacific region leaderboard. Vietnam Airlines (VN) came in second with an OTP of 86.28%, a 3-point improvement over last month’s performance. Philippine Airlines (PR) came in third with an OTP score of 84.27%. Peach Aviation (MM) and ANA (NH) came in at #4 and #5, with an OTP of 81.25% and 81.14% respectively.

    In North America, With a remarkable OTP of 91.29% and during one of the busiest travel holidays, Delta Air Lines (DL) maintained its position as the leader in the North America region in November. United Airlines (UA) secured the second spot with an OTP of 88.44%, which is a two-point improvement over the previous month’s performance. Followed closely behind in third place was American Airlines (AA), with an OTP of 86.65%. With a 6-point improvement over last month’s performance, Southwest Airlines (WN) came in at #4 this month with an OTP of 84.52% followed by Alaska Airlines (AS) with an OTP score of 84.50%.

    In Europe, Austrian (OS) is the new leader in the Europe Region this month with an OTP of 87.38%. With more than 5-points improvement over last month’s performance, Vueling (VY) finally made the top 5 ranking in second place with an OTP of 86.31%. With no change in On-Time Performance this month, Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) slipped to third place with an OTP of 86.11%. On the other hand, Transavia France (TO) and Eurowings (EW) both made near 6-point improvements in performances in November and came in #4 and #5 with OTP of 84.49% and 84.22% respectively.

    In Latin America, Azul (AD) is the new leader in the Latin America region this month, with an OTP of 84.49%. Despite a 2-point decline from last month’s performance, Caribbean Airlines (BW) maintained its second-place position in the region in November with an OTP of 83.96%. Copa Airlines (CM) followed Caribbean Airlines in third place with an OTP of 82.30%; a slight decline from its performance in October. Aeromexico (AM) and Sky Airlines (H2) both made improvements this month in their performances over the previous month and came in at #4 and #5, with an OTP of 81.79% and 79.13% respectively.

    In the Middle East and Africa, Oman Air’s (WY) dominance was maintained this month with an OTP of 93%. Safair (FA) also sustained its position at number two with an OTP of 90.81%. Qatar Airways (QR) moved to the third spot in the region this month with an OTP of 87.56%, while Royal Jordanian (RJ) slid to fourth place with an OTP of 84.59%.

    Among the LCCs, Safair (FA) is the leader in both the MEA region and the LCC category with a notable OTP of 93.99%; a 3-point improvement over last month’s performance. Safair’s improvement in performance was an exception among its peers this month. The remaining carriers in the top 5 ranking all experienced a decline in performance compared to October. Oman Air (WY) fell to second place this month with an OTP score of 92.68%, while Qatar Airways (QR) remained in third place with an OTP of 86.06%. Saudia (SV) and Gulf Air (GF) came in at #4 and #5, with OTP of 83.45% and 82.09% respectively.

    Airlines November 2023 OTP

    GLOBAL SUMMARY – OCTOBER 2023

    Delta Air Lines (DL) took the top spot from SA Avianca (AV) this month with an outstanding OTP of 90.84%. SA Avianca (AV) followed with an OTP of 88.78%, just a slight decline from its performance last month. Qatar Airways (QR) came in third place this month with an OTP of 87.56%. United Airlines (UA), a new name in the top five ranking, secured the fourth place this month with an OTP of 86.31%. United Airlines was followed closely by Aeromexico (AM), with an OTP of 86.08%.

    In APAC, ANA (NH) is the new leader in the region with an OTP of 85.08%, a two-point improvement over the previous month’s performance. JAL (JL) retained its position in second place at the same OTP rate as the previous month (83.88%). With an OTP of 83.14%, Vietnam Airlines (VN) took the third spot in the APAC region.

    In North America, with an impressive OTP of 90.84%, Delta Air Lines (DL) maintained its position as the top airline this month. This score was a 4-point improvement over the previous month’s performance. United Airlines (UA) secured the second place this month with an OTP of 86.31%. Alaska Airlines (AS) followed closely in third place with an equally impressive OTP score of 86.07%.

    In Europe, Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) is the leader in the region this month with an OTP of 86.10%. Iberia Express (I2) climbed to second place with an OTP score of 85.69%, while Austrian (OS) slid to the third spot with an OTP of 85.57% this month.

    In Latin America, SA Avianca (AV) maintained its dominance this month with an OTP score of 88.78%. Caribbean Airlines (BW) followed closely behind at number two with an OTP of 86.47%, almost a 3-point improvement over their September OTP performance. Aeromexico (AM) ranked third in the region this month with an OTP of 86.08%.

    In the Middle East and Africa, Oman Air’s (WY) dominance was maintained this month with an OTP of 93%. Safair (FA) also sustained its position at number two with an OTP of 90.81%. Qatar Airways (QR) moved to the third spot in the region this month with an OTP of 87.56%, while Royal Jordanian (RJ) slid to fourth place with an OTP of 84.59%.

    Among the LCCs, With an OTP of 90.81%, Safair (FA) is once again the leader in the Low-Cost Carrier category this month. Jetstar Japan (GK) climbed to the second spot with an incredible OTP of 86.94%, while Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) dropped to third place with an OTP of 86.10%.


    Avianca (AV) continued its dominance in the global ranking this month with an OTP of 89.88%, almost a 3-point improvement from the previous month. Qatar Airways (QR) also maintained its position in the second spot with an OTP of 87.84%, also an improvement from their performance last month. Delta Air Lines (DL) came in third place in the global ranking with an OTP of 86.40% and showed an improvement of almost 4 points over last month. Delta was followed by Azul (AD) with an OTP of 85.71%.

    In APAC, Thai AirAsia (FD) earned the top spot in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, with an OTP result of 87.52%, an improvement of nearly 7 points over its performance last month. Japan Airlines (JL) showed a remarkable 13-point improvement over last month’s performance and ascended to the second place with an OTP of 83.88%. Followed closely behind was Philippine Airlines (PR) with an OTP score of 83.38%. ANA (NH) and Singapore Airlines (SQ) joined the rankings at number 4 and 5, and achieved an OTP of 83.02% and 81.34% respectively.

    In North America, Delta Air Lines (DL) led North American airlines with an OTP of 86.40%. This was nearly a 4-point improvement for the airline over its performance last month. Delta was followed by Alaska Airlines (AS) with an OTP of 83.81%. United Airlines (UA) switched ranks with Alaska Airlines this month in third place, with an OTP score of 82.54%.

    In Europe, Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) led the region this month with an OTP of 87.98%. Austrian (OS) followed Norwegian Air Shuttle in the second spot with an OTP score of 85.47%. Iberia Express (I2) safely secured the third spot with an OTP of 82.95%.

    In Latin America, Avianca (AV) continued its dominance in the Latin America region with an OTP of 89.88%, a 3-point improvement from its performance last month. Copa Airlines (CM) followed Avianca in the second spot, also with an OTP of 89.88%. Azul (AD) came in third place with an OTP of 85.71%.

    In the Middle East and Africa, Oman Air (WY) reclaimed the top spot this month with a remarkable OTP of 94.02%. Safair (FA) slid to second place with an OTP score of 92.29%, while Royal Jordanian (RJ) came in third place with an OTP score of 90.99%.

    Among the LCCs, Safair (FA) maintained the top spot in the category with an OTP of 92.29%. Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) joined the rankings this month at number 2 with an OTP of 87.98%, followed by Thai Air Asia (FD) with an OTP of 87.52%.


    Avianca (AV) returned to the top spot in the Global category this month after briefly losing it to LATAM last month, with an OTP of 86.86%. Qatar Airways (QR) moved up and followed Avianca (AV) closely in the second spot with an OTP of 85.77%. Iberia (IB) ranked third among the top performing global airlines, with an OTP of 85.76%. Azul (AD) returned as a top performer in the global category this month with an OTP of 85.37%.

    In APAC, AirAsia India (I5) rose to the top rank among APAC carriers with an OTP of 86.33%. Indigo (6E) maintained its second-place spot with an OTP of 84.98%. Air New Zealand (NZ) claimed the third spot with 82.81% of its flights arriving on schedule. Garuda (GA) returned as a top performer this month in the fourth spot, with an OTP of 82.60%.

    In North America, Delta Air Lines (DL) returned as the leader this month in the North American category with an OTP of 82.80%. The top spot was briefly taken by Alaska (AS) the last two months. United Air Lines (UA) followed with an OTP of 81.61% at the second spot. Alaska Airlines (AS) took the third place with an OTP of 81.52%.

    In Europe, Iberia (IB) continues to lead the region with an OTP of 85.76%. Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) climbed to second place with 84.61% of its flights arriving on time. Austrian (OS) finished third with an OTP of 81.09%. Air Europa (UX) makes its debut this year among the top performers with an OTP of 80.42%.

    In Latin America, Copa Airlines (CM) continues its dominance at the top spot in the Latin America category with an impressive OTP of 89.78%. Avianca (AV) and Azul (AD) came in second and third, with 86.86% and 85.37% OTP, respectively.

    In the Middle East and Africa, Safair (FA) leads the region again this month with an OTP of 93.13%. Oman Air (WY), the five-month reigning leader slid to second place with an OTP of 90.39%, followed by Etihad Airways (EY) in third place with an OTP of 87.23%.

    Among the LCCs, Safair (FA) is also the new leader in the LCC category with an OTP of 93.13%. Iberia Express (I2) and Spring Airlines Japan (IJ) claimed to the 2nd and 3rd spots with OTP of 88.70% and 86.76% respectively.


    LATAM Airlines (LA) switched positions with Avianca (AV) this month with an OTP of 85.30% and 84.67% respectively. Saudia (SV) took the third position among the top performing global airlines with an OTP of 83.76%.

    In APAC, JAL (JL) jumped to the top spot amongst APAC airlines with an OTP of 83.39%. Indigo (6E) followed with 82.04% and ANA (NH) with 81.80% of their flights arriving on-time.

    In North America, Alaska Airlines (AS) for the second month in a row led North American carriers with an OTP of 82.03% over Delta Air Lines (DL) with an OTP of 78.55%. American Airlines (AA) took the third position with an OTP of 73.01%.

    In Europe, Iberia (IB) led with an OTP of 80.75%. Finnair (AY) followed closely behind with 79.82% of their flights arriving on-time. Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) was in the 3rd position with an OTP of 76.97%.

    In Latin America, Copa Airlines (CM), a consistent top performer, leads the region with an OTP of 89.74%. Azul (AD) and LATAM Airlines (LA) followed respectively with 86.48% and 85.30% OTP percentages.

    In the Middle East and Africa, the top airlines matched June rankings with Oman Air (WY) continuing to lead the region with an OTP of 90.73% followed by Royal Jordanian (RJ) with an OTP of 88.58% then Safair (FA) with an OTP of 88.32%.

    Among the LCCs, Solaseed Air (6J) leads the category with an OTP of 89.87%. Safair (FA) was close behind with an OTP of 88.32% followed by Iberia Express (I2) with an OTP of 87.14%.


    monthly-otp-june

    Avianca (AV) maintained the top spot amongst global airlines with an OTP of 86.61%. Following closely behind was LATAM Airlines (LA) with an 86.54% and Qatar Airways (QR) with 85% OTP.

    In APAC, ANA (NH) continues to lead the region with 84.29% OTP. Air New Zealand (NZ) jumps to the 2nd position with 83.99% and IndiGo (6E) in 3rd with an 83.78%.

    In North America, Alaska Airlines (AS) unseats Delta Air Lines for the top North American airline in June with an OTP of 80.33%. Delta Air Lines (DL) followed closely behind with an 79.73% OTP and American Airlines (AA) with 74.13% OTP.

    In Europe, LOT Polish Airlines (LO) returns to the lead position in Europe with 82.72% of their flights arriving on-time, followed by Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) with 82.02% OTP and Iberia (IB) with 80.89% OTP.

    In Latin America, Copa Airlines (CM) continues to dominate the region with an OTP of 89.46%. Avianca (AV) and LATAM Airlines (LA) follow closely behind with OTP of 86.61% and 86.54% respectively.

    In the Middle East and Africa, Oman Air (WY) leads the region gain this month with an OTP of 93.57%. Royal Jordanian (RJ) jumps to the 2nd position with an OTP of 88.17% followed by Safair (FA) with an OTP of 87.66%.

    Among the LCCs, StarFlyer (7G) jumps to the lead position in the category with an OTP of 90.82%. Solaseed Air (6J) and Hong Kong Express (UO) maintain the 2nd and 3rd positions with OTP of 89.68% and 87.74% respectively.

    Month over month view of On Time Performance June through April.

    Avianca (AV) improved their on-time performance (OTP) by almost 3 points in May, making them the top airline globally with an OTP of 89.51%. Delta Air Lines (DL) closely followed with an OTP of 88.86%, showing a significant improvement of 5 points compared to the previous month. LATAM Airlines (LA) came in third place with an OTP of 88.23%.

    In APAC, ANA (NH) led the region with an OTP of 86.04%. JAL (JL) was a close second with an OTP of 85.86% and Indigo (6E) in third with an OTP of 85.01%.

    In North America, Delta Air Lines (DL) was the North American leader once again with an OTP of 88.86%. Alaska Airlines (AS) followed with an OTP of 84.69% and American Airlines (AA) with an OTP of 83.91%.

    In Europe, Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) took the lead in May with an on-time performance (OTP) of 89.25%, surpassing the previous leader LOT Polish Airlines (LO) with an OTP of 88.68%. Iberia (IB) secured the third position with an OTP of 86.63%.

    In Latin America, Copa Airlines (CM) continues to lead the region with an OTP of 93.44%. Avianca (AV) and Azul (AD) follow closely behind with OTP of 89.51% and 89.03% respectively.

    In the Middle East and Africa, Oman Air (WY) lead the region this month with an OTP of 95.08% followed by Safair (FA) with an OTP of 93.56% and Gulf Air (GF) with an OTP of 89.37%.

    Among the LCCs, Safair (FA) continues to lead the category with an OTP of 93.56%, an improvement of just over 3 points from the previous month. Solaseed (6J) and Hong Kong Express (UO) follow with an OTP of 93.09% and 92.78% respectively.

    Month over month view of On Time Performance May through March.

    Air New Zealand (NZ) Emerges as the Leader in the APAC Region, and LOT Polish Airlines (LO) Secures the Top Spot Among European Airlines

    Iberia (IB) is the global leader in the Global Airlines category with an OTP of 87.28%, a 6pt improvement from March. Avianca (AV) follows closely behind with an OTP of 86.83% and LATAM (LA) with an OTP of 85.80%.

    In APAC, Air New Zealand (NZ) is the new leader in APAC region with an OTP of 84.55%, an improvement of 6pts from March. IndiGo (6E) follows tightly behind with an OTP of 84.49%, a decline of just over 4pts from the previous month. JAL (JL) takes the the 3rd position with an OTP of 83.95%.

    In North America, Delta Air Lines (DL) continues to lead all carriers in the region with an OTP of 83.29%. Delta is followed by Alaska (AS) with an OTP of 82.02% and American Airlines (AA) with an OTP of 78.95%.

    In Europe, LOT Polish Airlines (LO) jumps to the top spot amongst European airlines with a strong OTP result of 89.25%. LOT Polish Airlines is followed closely by Iberia (IB) with an OTP of 87.28% and Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) with an OTP of 87.15%.

    In Latin America, Copa Airlines (CM) continues to lead the region with an OTP of 93.26%. Avianca (AV) and Azul (AD) follow closely behind with OTP of 86.83% and 86.38% respectively.

    In the Middle East and Africa, Oman Air (WY) maintains the top position with an OTP of 92.58%, just edging Safair (FA) with an OTP of 92.20%. Royal Jordanian (RJ) follows with OTP of 87.74%.

    Among the LCCs, Safair (FA) continues to lead the category with an OTP of 92.20%. Solaseed (6J) and Norwegian Air Shuttle (DY) follow with an OTP of 89.69% and 87.15% respectively.

    Month over month view of On Time Performance April through February.

    New Leaders Azul and IndiGo Emerge in Global and APAC

    Azul (AD) is the new leader in the Global Airlines category. Azul takes the leadership position from KLM (KL) this month with an OTP of 89.87%. This is also more than a 4pt improvement from their performance last month (84.37%). ANA (NH) follows Azul with an OTP of 87.24%, also showing a 5pt improvement from last month (82.30%).

    In APAC, IndiGo (6E) is the new leader in the APAC region. IndiGo takes the lead position with an OTP of 89.02% from Thai AirAsia (FD) who had led the pack for two consecutive months. Vietnam Airlines (VN) makes a remarkable improvement to their OTP performance this month (85.00%) over last month (78.42%) to make their debut in the top 5 ranking at #4.

    In North America, with an OTP of 80.93%, Delta Air Lines (DL) continues to lead the North America region. This is a slight decline from its performance last month (84.82%). Alaska (AS) follows Delta closely at #2, with an OTP of 79.57%. The North American airlines experienced a decline in performance because of the Spring break holiday traffic and with the series of bad weather systems. This is evident in the OTP performance of the top 5 performers this month.

    In Europe, Austrian Airlines (OS) is once again the leader in the Europe region with an OTP of 88.66%. This is a decline from their last month’s performance (91.09%). LOT Polish (LO) follows Austrian closely with an OTP of 88.32%; an improvement from their previous month’s performance (85.62%).

    In Latin America, for three consecutive months, Copa Airlines (CM) is the leader in the Latin America region. With an OTP of 92.14%, the Panama-based airline maintains its lead in the region. Azul (AD) follows Copa at #2 with an OTP of 89.87%. This is more than a 5pt improvement in their last month performance (84.37%).

    In the Middle East and Africa, Oman Air (WY) takes the lead back from Safair (FA) this month with an OTP of 94.98%. Safair however follows Oman Air closely at #2 with an OTP of 93.68%; a slight decline from their performance last month (94.89%).

    Among the LCCs, Safair (FA) maintains its lead in the Low-Cost category this month with an OTP of 93.68%; a slight decline from their performance last month (94.89%). StarFlyer (7G) follows Safair at #2 with an OTP of 92.28%; although a small reduction from their performance last month (92.85%).

    Month over month view of On Time Performance March through January

    KLM is the New Leader in the Global Airlines Category

    With an OTP of 89.66%, KLM (KL) airline takes the top spot from Iberia. The airline makes a 3pt improvement from their last month’s performance (86.20%). Iberia (IB) follows closely with an OTP of 89.57%; also showing a 3pt improvement from last month (86.60%).

    In APAC, Thai AirAsia (FD) is once again the leader in the APAC region with an OTP of 89.03%; a slight decline from their January performance (90.68%). IndiGO (6E) and China Southern (CZ) make their debut in the top five at #2 (87.78%) and #5 (82.99%) respectively.

    In North America, Delta Air Lines (DL) maintains its lead in the North America region with an OTP of 84.82%; nearly 5pts higher than last month’s performance (79.88%). This is not an isolated incident in the region. All the top five performers showed improvement from last month and December. Southwest Airlines (WN) follows Delta at #2 with an OTP of 82.43%; a remarkable improvement from December’s performance (69.40%).

    In Europe, Austrian Airlines (OS) is the new leader in the Europe region. With an impressive OTP of 91.09%, the airline takes the lead from Air Europa (UX). Like its North American counterparts, all the European top performers showed significant improvement from last month and December.

    In Latin America, Copa Airlines (CM) maintains its lead in the Latin America region this month with an impressive OTP of 94.39%. Sky Airlines (H2) once again follows Copa at number 2; with an OTP of 89.02%. VivaAir (VH) makes its debut in the top five ranking this month at #4 with an OTP of 86.16%.

    In the Middle East and Africa, Safair (FA) is the new leader in the Middle East & Africa region. The South African-based airlines takes the lead from Oman Air (WY) with an OTP of 94.89%. But Oman Air follows closely at #2 with an OTP of 92.88%. Ethiopian Airlines (ET) makes its debut in the top 5 ranking this month in the region at #5 with an OTP of 86.03; almost a 10pt improvement from its performance last month (75.48%).

    Among the LCCs, with an OTP of 94.89, Safair (FA) also takes the lead from Solaseed this month in the Low-Cost Carriers category.


    Iberia Continues to Be in Top the Leadership Spots

    Iberia (IB) starts the year off with a strong performance and takes the lead with an OTP of 86.80%, almost a four-point improvement from December (82.91%). After missing in the top 10 last month, Latam Airlines (LA) appears in this month’s top 5 ranking at number 4 with an OTP of 86.19%. Aeromexico (AM) finishes at number 5 with an OTP of 85.30%; a vast improvement from last month (77.24%).

    In APAC, Thai AirAsia (FD) is the leader in the APAC region this month with an OTP of 90.68%. Air China (CA) follows in second place with an OTP of 87.60%. Lucky Air (8L) and Shenzhen Airlines (ZH) make their debut in the top five and follow each other very closely at number 4 and 5 respectively; and OTP of 85.58% and 85.24%. This month no Indian airlines feature in the top ten, seasonal weather conditions playing their part in disrupting schedules.

    In North America, Delta Air Lines (DL) continues to lead in North America with an OTP of 79.88%. American Airlines (AA) follows very closely at number two with an OTP of 79.76%. This is an improvement from December’s performance (76.04%) for the Texas-based airline.

    In Europe, Air Europa (UX) is the new leader in the Europe region, with an OTP of 88.68%. This is a huge improvement for Air Europa who finished fourth last month with an OTP of 79.46%. Vueling (VY) returns to the top 5 ranking at number 2 with an OTP of 88.67%: nearly missing the top spot after missing for almost nine months.

    In Latin America, Copa Airlines (CM) is the new leader in the Latin America region. The Panama City-based airline returns to the top spot with an impressive OTP of 90.79%. Copa is followed by Sky Airlines (H2) at number 2; with an OTP of 87.73%; an improvement in performance from last month (84.19%).

    In the Middle East and Africa, Oman Air (WY) continues to lead in the MEA region; with an impressive OTP of 92.14%. Royal Jordanian (RJ) follows at number two with an OTP of 89.90%.

    Among the LCCs, Solaseed Air (6J) takes the lead from Sky Airline as the leader in this category with an OTP of 92.23%; an improvement from last month (88.36%). StarFlyer (7F) and Thai AirAsia (FD) follow closely at #2 (90.71%) and #3 (90.68%) respectively.


    You can find out more on Cirium’s On-Time Performance portfolio and download reports here.

  • Minneapolis Leads; Indian and Latin American Airports Improve

    Luis-Felipe-de-Oliveira-board
    Luis-Felipe-de-Oliveira-board

    Luis Felipe de Oliveria, Director General, ACI World

    According to ACI World, 2024 is expected to be a milestone for global passenger traffic as it reaches 9.4 billion passengers, surpassing the year 2019 that welcomed 9.2 billion passengers (102.5% of the 2019 level).

    Upside factors include the consolidation of the reopening of the Chinese market and surge in domestic travel, supply chain disruptions gradually subsiding, and inflation slowing down.

    While downside risks remain present, we continue to witness the dedicated efforts and commitment of ACI airport members and partners—such as their on-time performance—and we are filled with optimism about the industry’s future.

    The airport categories in the On-Time Performance Review are based on the current level of flight activity. American airports reached great results with Minneapolis-St Paul International Airport (MSP) leading in the Global and Large airport categories. American Airports – Salt Lake City International Airport, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport and Philadelphia International Airport take fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth place respectively in the Global category.  Indian airports strengthen their on-time performance and continue last year’s trend – Rajiv Gandhi International Airport and Kempegowda International Airport leap to second and third place in both the Global and Large Airport categories.

    Japanese airports continue to prove their on-time performance lead with Osaka International Airport holding first position in the Medium Airport category, while Chubu Centrair International Airport takes second position in the Small Airport category.

    Latin American airports make significant headway in all airport categories; Mariscal Sucre International Airport leads in the Small Airport category and Jose Joaquin de Olmedo Airport achieve third place; Tocumen International Airport, Jorge Chavez International Airport, and Brasilia International Airport secure second, third and fourth in the Medium airports category; and El Dorado International Airport the fourth in the Global and Large airports categories–all participating in the top 5 of their respective groups.

    Their stellar performance could not be better timed: Latin America and the Caribbean is in fact forecasted by ACI World to be the first region to surpass its 2019 level, reaching 707 million passengers, or 102.9% of the 2019 level by the end of 2023.

    It is clear that airlines’ performance is attached to airport results and vice versa, showing once more the joint efforts to build efficiency with benefits for passengers and the whole aviation ecosystem. Congratulations to the top airports in each of the categories for their exceptional on-time performance as we continue to build a sustainable aviation ecosystem fit to welcome current and future travellers with efficiency, performance, and an exceptional passenger experience. We can only operate successfully and reach new heights as an ecosystem when all aviation stakeholders come together around the needs of passengers and communities worldwide.