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June 15, 2021
By Max Kingsley-Jones, Senior Consultant at Ascend by Cirium
Amid the gradual decline in stored airliners during recent months, the share of unplaced aircraft now accounts for a fifth of the operating lessors’ idle portfolios.
Data from Cirium shows that the number of stored passenger narrowbodies and widebodies has been steadily falling from 7,800 aircraft in Q1 2021, to around 6,300 at the beginning of June. Of these, just over half (3,220 aircraft) are managed by operating lessors.
Analysis by Ascend by Cirium shows that over 550 mainline aircraft in lessor portfolios are currently idle and unplaced, with no known future lease, cargo conversion or retirement planned. Of these, around 80% (441 aircraft) are more than eight years old.
The growth in the number of lessors’ idle unplaced aircraft has slowed in recent months. But as airlines have returned aircraft to service, the share that unplaced aircraft represent of the lessors’ entire idle portfolios had risen to around 18% by June, according to Cirium data and analysis. The ratio is slightly higher for widebodies, at 19% (129 aircraft), compared with 17% (427 aircraft) for narrowbodies.
The A320ceo family is the most populous idle type in the lessors’ unplaced portfolio, with Ascend by Cirium analysis identifying 200 aircraft. The 737NG is ranked second, with 132 aircraft identified. A third of these A320ceo and 737NG aircraft are more than 16 years old.
Airbus also heads the rankings from a widebody perspective, with Ascend identifying 52 unplaced A330s (all Ceos). The majority of these (58%) are in the 9- to 16-year-old age range.
The 777-200/300 Classic has the second highest tally – 26 aircraft – with the 767 being ranked third (22 aircraft). All the 767s and all but two of the 777 Classics are over 16 years old.
With 40% (220 aircraft) of the lessors’ idle unplaced jets in the 17-years-plus age bracket, it will be interesting to see how many return as flyers in either passenger or freighter form, or are ultimately destined for part-out. And with the industry’s recovery playing out at different speeds geographically, the status of the lessors’ unplaced portfolios will remain dynamic in the near-term.
June 9, 2021
Boom – is it all just noise?
By Richard Evans, Senior Consultant at Ascend by Cirium
There are huge technical, financial, environmental and certification challenges for Boom, and it is an arguably strange decision from an airline that has recently made much of its environmental and sustainability targets.
The Overture has a limited range, quoted as 4,250nm. The definition is not exactly clear, but generally this would translate to a real-world capability to fly great circle routes of perhaps 3,750nm. Without making refuelling stops, this points to a core market of Europe to the East coast of North America. For United, this enables many routes from its Newark and Washington DC hubs to Western Europe, at least in theory.
The Cirium FM Traffic module records a total of 6.2 million business class passengers across the North Atlantic in calendar year 2019, at an average yield of $0.26/RPK. The average distance was 3,860nm, indicating that 50% would likely be on flights beyond the non-stop capability of Boom’s SST. United Airlines carried 850,000 business class passengers across the Atlantic at a very similar average range. If each Boom flight carried 60 United passengers, this equates to 13,000 flights, or 18 return flights per day.
Cirium Tracked Utilization shows the number of business class seats flown between Europe and North America in 2019. By this metric, British Airways led the way, with United the 2nd largest across the Atlantic, with 878,000 seats each way.
Thus, a simple top-down approach indicates a sizeable potential market, but it requires diversion of a substantial portion of business class seat capacity. How would United configure its twin-aisle jets? It still requires business cabins for longer flights. Would it have to operate a sub-fleet of 787s without business class?
The final huge unknown is operating cost relative to business class cabins of conventional aircraft. Fuel burn and maintenance per hour will likely be higher than for a 300-seat Boeing 787. The SST is twice as productive, but that speed itself is an issue. At Mach 1.7 the Overture cannot be scheduled for two round-trip transatlantic flights per day. Time zones mean a regular 7pm departure from New York would arrive at London at 4am. Thus the extremely high purchase price ($200 million?) will be spread over comparatively low monthly utilisation of perhaps 2,000-2,500 hours a year.
In summary, it seems extremely doubtful a new SST will enter service this decade. Instead the technological focus is likely to remain on reducing fuel burn and retaining the flexibility to deal with future business cycles and shifts in demand.
June 2, 2021
Airbus Production Rate Increases – a Strong Recovery on the Way?
By Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium
Late last week Airbus announced plans to increase monthly A320-family production rate to 64 by the second quarter of 2023. The OEM is presently building at Rate 40 and expects to increase to Rate 45 by the end of this year. Airbus is also reported to have asked suppliers to enable Rate 70 by early 2024 and also consider a scenario for Rate 75 by 2025. With these numbers it is possible that Airbus will deliver some 480-520 new A320-family aircraft annually through 2023, before increasing to some 800-850 in the 2024-2025 timeframe. Is the market ready for these aircraft and what is driving the potential increase?
To address the second question first, Airbus currently report a firm order backlog in excess of 5,600 aircraft for the A320-family. At today’s Rate that would equate to more than 12-years’ worth of production. Even allowing for some softness, it would take a huge number of cancellations to normalise the backlog closer to a 5-year level. Hence, contracted demand is a clear justification for increasing Rate.
But will demand justify the increase? Our most recently published Cirium Fleet Forecast, completed in late 2020, uses our base-case demand-recovery scenario, together with productivity and retirement assumptions based upon detailed analysis of the current market, to estimate new single-aisle aircraft deliveries through 2025. Those forecast deliveries are illustrated below.
Over the next five years the forecast projects delivery of just over 3,000 Airbus single-aisle aircraft, albeit note that this does include around 400 A220s. Airbus’s own Rate projections drive an estimate of some 3,200 or so aircraft. So accounting for those A220s, the Airbus Rate projections are only some 20% above our own base case forecast. Given that the forecasts themselves are highly sensitive to the regional and global demand recovery projections, it could only require a marginally accelerated demand recovery, or perhaps fewer parked aircraft to return to service or a slower recovery of aircraft utilization, to build greater new aircraft demand than our base case projects.
At face value then, the Airbus Rate plans may appear optimistic. Perhaps Airbus is more motivated by its ability to raise the delivery market-share bar as its competitor remains in recovery mode from its single-aisle production crisis and evaluates rate increases of its own, rather than building to demand? But with so many variables at play right now it could only require some relatively small changes here and there for the demand to become a reality and the plan to be a demand lead and logical move.
May 25, 2021
By David Griffin, Valuations Consultant, ISTAT appraiser at Ascend by Cirium
Commercial Aircraft Market Sentiment Index, May 2021
Following the successful launch of the Ascend by Cirium Market Sentiment Index in April, this month we focus on lease rates.
The number of participants increased slightly this month and if you would like to participate in future surveys, please contact one of our team.
As per last month, we continue to use an NPS Index for the lease trend – estimated as the number of respondents replying ‘trending up’ minus those replying ‘trending down’, divided by the total sample response. Scores in the 40% to -40% range broadly indicate stability, those below -40% can be considered to indicate a very strong negative trend in lease rates and those above 40% indicate a strong positive trend. Thus, it is clear from the analysis below that the market sees continued negative pressure on all widebody lease rates, but positive pressure on new technology single-aisle aircraft.
The same NPS logic for our Current Market Lease Rates indicates that we have one type where the survey suggests our CMLR is too high, eight where our opinion can be considered ‘about right’ and one where our opinion is ‘too low’.
Looking at the stability measure, the percentage considering the type ‘stable’ is shown above. As with the value stability index, new-generation types are considered to be the most stable (aside from the A350-1000) but what is most interesting is that participants see lease rates for a 10-year-old 737-800 being more stable than for a new 737 Max 8.
Contrasting the NPS Index for values and lease rates (from this and last month’s surveys) above we see remarkable similarity. However, on average there is slightly more optimism for lease rates rather than values.
Potentially, the slightly greater optimism for lease rates could be seen as a leading indicator. While we certainly are not calling the bottom for lease rates, and neither is the market, there is a modicum of hope for new technology narrow body aircraft.
Finally we surveyed participants on one of the most important elements of the supply side – stored aircraft. At the end of 2019, Cirium fleet data recorded 1,466 passenger single-aisle aircraft in storage. By the end of 2020, the parked inventory had increased to 5,156 single-aisle aircraft in storage. So we asked participants where they expect stored inventories to be at the end of 2021. The results appear quite bullish, with 77% voting for less than 4,000 single-aisle aircraft in storage at year end and a significant 34% voting for less than 3,000.
It will be interesting to see where this metric does land in December. Our own Ascend by Cirium recovery scenario 4, our current baseline, projects over 4,400 single-aisles will still be in storage at year end. If we are wrong and the 34% are right, then we will need to see almost 1,500 single-aisles either returned to service or parted-out in the next six months. That in turn will require a fundamental recovery in passenger demand which for now remains frustrated by continued travel restrictions. As the situation remains dynamic we continue to monitor and may revise our scenarios later in the year as more data becomes available.
Next month’s survey (which will return to the original aircraft values as we seek to build a trend data set) will be issued on 9 June and if you would like to participate please contact one of the team.
May 19, 2021
By Max Kingsley-Jones, Senior Consultant at Ascend by Cirium
787 passes 1,000 deliveries
Boeing has recently delivered the 1,000th 787, less than 10 years after the first aircraft was handed over. This makes it the fastest widebody production run to pass that significant milestone.
That Boeing seems to have underplayed the achievement probably speaks to the production woes the programme has been suffering since the final quarter of last year, which saw a four-month hiatus in deliveries. The quality problems, combined with a general slowdown in shipments last year amid the COVID-19 crisis, significantly affected 787 delivery numbers.
Indeed, 787 line-number 1000 – a 787-10 for Singapore Airlines (SIA) – flew over a year ago – on 3 April 2020 – and as these words were written was yet to be delivered to customer Singapore Airlines. This aircraft’s status is denoted with the titles “1000th 787”, and it is probably no coincidence that SIA also took the 1,000th 747, in 1993.
The 747 was the first widebody to pass 1,000 deliveries, reaching that marker after 25 years of production. Five widebody types can now boast four-digit production numbers, the others being the 767 (1,214 deliveries), A330 (1,514 deliveries), 747 (1,561 deliveries) and 777 (1,661 deliveries). The latter was the previous fastest widebody to 1,000 units, passing the 1k-mark after 18 years of production, in 2012.
Cirium data shows that the 1,000th 787 delivery was made on 21 April, a 787-9 to China Southern Airlines as B-20EH on lease from Air Lease.
The achievement comes as Boeing closes the line at Everett, Washington, and concentrates all final assembly at its Charleston, South Carolina plant which came online in the second year of production. Cirium data shows that to date, production has been split roughly 60/40 in favour of Everett. The final Washington deliveries are expected this year as Boeing clears the significant production backlog that has built up at both plants amid inspections to address a “skin-flatness” issue.
Of the 1,003 deliveries completed by the end of April, the -9 variant accounts for over half (565 shipments). It is also the most popular variant on backlog, representing two-thirds of the 486 unfilled orders. Boeing’s big task now is to clear the vast inventory of undelivered Dreamliners. Just 11 787s were handed over in the first four months of 2021, against a Cirium forecast of more than 80 for the full year. With some 79 aircraft recorded in Cirium’s fleet data in the production cycle – that is with a first-flight date recorded – the challenge is significant.
May 19, 2021
By Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium
Cirium’s recently updated fleet data reveals that Avolon placed orders for 14 Airbus A320neo family aircraft on April 28, 2021. Perhaps not significant news in itself, until we delve deeper to discover that Avolon also cancelled orders for 16 A320neo aircraft on exactly the same date. This followed a similar pattern in March, when the lessor placed eight new A320neo orders while cancelling a similar number.
Why would an operating lessor want to cancel an order, only to immediately replace it with an identically sized new order (albeit with a slightly different variant mix)? A potential answer may lie in contract structures, and most specifically in the impact of escalation on likely delivery pricing.
Digging a little more into these specific cancellations reveals that Avolon placed the original orders in 2014. Clearly we are not privy to Avolon’s contract pricing, but for the purposes of this discussion let’s assume the order was made at our extant Market Value (which was $46.0 million). As is typical with aircraft purchase contracts, the delivery price would likely be subject to escalation based upon an agreed formula. Again, we are not privy to the specific formula but it will almost certainly be based upon industry standard labour and commodities indices. Researching these, we can estimate that escalation has been running around 2.0% per annum since 2014. Hence each A320neo ordered in 2014 at that $46.0 million value, would be delivering today for around $52.8 million.
That’s a difference of some $6.6 million between today’s value and the potential escalated price. Although we don’t know when these aircraft will ultimately be delivered, the escalation clock will actually increase that value delta with time (by 2025 it will be $7.2 million). Thus, it is clear that a pricing reset is required to correct price to something closer to Market Value. Hence this apparently odd move to cancel and re-order can be fully rationalised. Even if Avolon has had to forfeit its deposit on the original order, then the loss of a few hundred thousand dollars per aircraft seems palatable in the overall context of the price reset.
One final reason why this reset is required is the rent the aircraft can earn. Back in 2014 our extant Market Lease Rate (MLR) for a new A320neo was $400,000 per month. Today that same MLR is $310,000 per month. This is an almost 25% reduction in the earning potential for the aircraft, providing another clear reason why Avolon needs to see a price reset. Avolon is unlikely to be the only operating lessor facing this challenge in its new aircraft order backlog, so we might expect to see similar moves from others.
May 5, 2021
Hope and Fear: Observation on market and airline operation during 2021 Chinese Labour Day holiday
By Joanna Lu, Head of Consultancy Asia at Ascend by Cirium
This year’s Chinese Labour Day holiday is the first long break the country has seen in a largely COVID-19 free condition for a while. Therefore, it is expected to unleash a pent-up demand for travel after the partial lockdowns necessary through the Lunar New Year, due to multiple coronavirus outbreaks. Consequently, likely demand is estimated to amount to some 200-265 million journeys domestically via ground, rail and air during the five-day holiday, pretty much back to pre-COVID-19 levels.
Although a majority of trips will be via ground and rail transportation, air travel bookings surged significantly for flights between April 30 and May 6, 2021. Seat bookings were up 23% compared with the same period in 2019, according to estimates from Trip.com. Economy-class airfares for trips over the Labour Day holiday have risen 11% compared with 2019 levels. This compares with the average 23% drop versus 2019 levels in Economy-class airfares, observed during the last six months.
At the specific route level, the top routes by booking volume suggest demand for air travel is largely arising from high per capita income cities including Shanghai, Beijing and Chongqin. Bookings on these top routes increased between 100% and 300% compared to the same period in 2019.
However, air fares on these routes are still generally lower compared to 2019 level, except for the top three ranked city pairs (Shanghai-Sanya, Beijing-Sanya and Shanghai-Chongqin). Interestingly the city pairs of top searching and top booking are somewhat different, which indicates a new travel booking pattern, with passengers now booking flights on a much shorter time horizon and with a more flexible itinerary choice. This leaves airlines with a significant capacity planning challenge, as they seek to match their supply to volatile demand.
From an operational perspective, Cirium’s data shows 3,165 aircraft tracked in China on May 1 (the day of peak of demand during 2021 Chinese Labour Day holiday), compared to 2,939 in 2019, thus representing 7.7% growth.
Tracked flights and tracked seats has grown at a higher rate, at 11.7% and 13.2% respectively, Each of these metrics is also 5.4% and 6.8% higher compared to the previous week.
This indicates that Chinese airlines are using larger aircraft and flying more flights over the holiday period in response to the increase passenger demand.
Indeed, our data shows that on May 1, 2021 there were 14.4% more twin-aisle aircraft tracked compared to the previous week and 2.3% more single-aisle aircraft. There were also 23.6% more flights operated by twin-aisle aircraft and 4.1% more flights run by single-aisle aircraft.
While it is plausable that more aircraft are in service during the holiday period compared to 2019, the average daily flight hours per aircraft was only 8.4, some which was 6.0% down compared to 2019 (8.9 hours). The global coronavirus situation remains serious and Chinese airlines’ international passenger traffic still remains negligible, while border restrictions and quarantine rules remain in place. So for airlines a key challenge will be keeping aircraft utilization high once the peak holiday season ends.
May 4, 2021
First reports from Ascend by Cirium Market Sentiment Index
Ascend by Cirium recently launched our Commercial Aircraft Market Sentiment Index. The Index will be published monthly and will track market sentiment on values, lease rates and trends through a survey of key market stakeholders, including lessors, banks, OEMs, part-out shops, airlines and brokers. The first issue of the survey closed on 26 April and from our initial target of 100 participants we were delighted to receive almost 60% participation.
We are keen to broaden our sample base further so if you would like to participate in future surveys, which we envisage will run on a monthly basis and will ask three simple questions connected with commercial aircraft values and lease rates, please contact one of our team. Meantime, we are pleased to report the outcome of the inaugural survey.
This month we asked participants their perception of our Current Market Values (CMV) and the trend in values for ten key aircraft types. Our simple NPS Index for the value trend – estimated as the respondents replying trending up minus those replying trending down, divided by the total sample response – is illustrated below. Scores in the 40% to -40% range broadly indicates stability, whilst those below -40% indicate a strong majority towards continued decline in value trends.
Thus, it is clear that the market sees continued negative value pressure on most widebody values and used narrowbodies, but stability in newer narrowbodies.
The same NPS logic for our actual values suggests that we have one type where the survey suggests our CMV is too high, eight where our opinion is ‘about right’ and one where our opinion is too low. We will use this detail to further direct our research efforts as we strive to ensure our values are the most appropriately calibrated available in the market today.
Our final question will always be a little more general and this time we asked that frequent question; when respondents think global passenger traffic will return to 2019 levels. The results appear quite bullish, with 47% voting for 2023 and a lower 32% for 2024. Our own Ascend by Cirium scenarios project August 2024 in the baseline and May 2023 in the upside, so the market seems to be in line with our own thinking, which was defined in September 2020 but which seems to be tracking well to reported traffic volumes. IATA’s most recent scenarios seem to be projecting early 2024. Clearly time will tell, but the majority certainly believe that by 2024 we will be well on track to recovery.
Next month we will survey on Current Market Lease Rates and trends. If you would like to participate in next month and subsequent surveys, please contact one of our team.
April 27, 2021
A look at how the latest 737 MAX grounding has halted delivery momentum
By Max Kingsley-Jones, Senior Consultant at Ascend by Cirium
The discovery of an electrical issue in early April that grounded over 100 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft has also brought deliveries to a grinding halt just five months after shipments resumed.
Boeing had been delivering aircraft from the stockpile of around 450 aircraft it has accumulated since March 2019, and directly from the assembly line in Renton, Washington. Between December 2020 when deliveries had resumed, and early April when the grounding was ordered, Boeing completed 89 Max deliveries – an average of around 21 a month.
Boeing halted Max deliveries on 7 April after just four aircraft had been delivered since the start of the month, as details emerged of the electrical grounding and bonding issue. This resulted from a design change that was introduced on the Max shortly before the March 2019 fleet grounding, and will be subject to a Federal Aviation Administration airworthiness directive.
One of the conditions stipulated following the November 2020 ungrounding was that each MAX delivery must be overseen by an FAA inspector. This factor may have contributed to Boeing’s delivery rate being tempered: In the four months since deliveries resumed, Boeing generally achieved a maximum of two per day (with three achieved occasionally). So far in 2021, Boeing has delivered 62 of the approximately 360 MAX aircraft Ascend by Cirium estimated Boeing would ship this year, prior to the latest grounding.
The FAA has disclosed that the electrical issue affects 737 Max 8/9s built between early 2019 and April 2021 with line numbers between 7399 and 8082. Boeing says that 106 delivered Max aircraft are affected (including 18 delivered prior to the 2019 grounding). But the line-number range indicates over 600 aircraft are potentially affected (the 737 Max shares its line number sequence with the 737NG, and Cirium Fleets Analyzer shows at least 50 line numbers in the sequence are commercial or military NGs).
Ryanair has been an immediate casualty of the new grounding, as it was poised to finally take delivery of its first MAX 8-200s two years after they were first due. The airline’s chief Michael O’Leary said last month that he expected deliveries would begin in April, with 16 aircraft arriving by the end of May – but none have yet left Boeing.
All MAX shipments are in limbo as Boeing and the FAA work to authorize and mandate a remedy. Once the modification is defined, airlines have indicated that they hope and expect repair work can be completed “in a matter of weeks”.
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April 21, 2021
By Chris Wills, Head of consultancy operations, senior ISTAT appraiser at Ascend by Cirium
Airline leasing versus owned aircraft trends
Following recent airline comments in the market regarding owning versus leasing aircraft, coupled with the single and twin aisle passenger jet fleets finally exceeding 50% market share, it is worth a quick look at the debate in more detail.
While there was a divergence in thoughts over leased versus owned fleets, one common area agreed upon was that Sale and Lease Back of new aircraft is worthwhile for all parties with airlines immediately benefitting from the capital inflow such deals facilitate. The data supports this. Cirium Fleets Analyzer shows that 66% of single and twin aisle commercial jets less than 3 years old are on operating leases.
The question of owning or leasing is of course specific to each operator, but a look at the age profile indicates the trend.
The case for leasing is skewed to newer assets, where capital cost and the associated risk is of greatest importance.Chris Wills, Head of consultancy operations, senior ISTAT appraiser at Ascend by Cirium
Cirium Fleets Analyzer highlights this: of the fleet 0-9 years in age on average 58% is operating leased, 10-19 years 48%, while 20-29 years just 24% of the fleet is on operating lease. Looking at the 0-20 age fleet (88% of the total) 54% is on operating lease.
There are a number of examples of airlines operating a model with preference for ownership of older aircraft. Offsetting capital or leasing costs dramatically changes the equation and focus shifts to variable operating costs (including fuel burn) and reliability, both of which can be managed with the right business competencies.
With the current market conditions airlines with a focus on older aircraft and a relatively stable financial position can take advantage of the buyers’ market for aircraft, particular unencumbered aircraft or those approaching end of lease. In some cases, values are already around part out. While clearly there is a massive need for lessors that is set to grow, perhaps we could see a larger shift of the fleet to airline owned for mid-life assets, considering the numbers involved (over 7,600 aircraft 10-20 years old) it could account for a lot of individual assets.
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April 14, 2021
The Implications of Airline Reorganizations for Operating Lessors
By Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium
The recent news that LATAM is rejecting seven Airbus A350s it leases from AerCap, as part of its US Chapter 11 restructuring, is a potential blow to the lessor and amply illustrates the risk that bankruptcy reorganizations pose to operating lessors.
These specific A350s were all acquired by AerCap from LATAM via purchase and leaseback on delivery from Airbus, between September 2016 and December 2019. The Cirium Core fleets data indicates that the leases were typically scheduled for a 12-year term. Although we are not party to any details of the specific leases, if these aircraft entered those leases at our extant Current Market Lease Rates, then the rents would have been between $1.07 million and $1.1 million per month. We thus estimate that at the start of 2020 AerCap would expect to be collecting just over $7.6 million per month from LATAM for these aircraft.
If the documents submitted to the bankruptcy court are correct then these aircraft will be returned to the lessor in three batches between this month and early June 2021. At that point the lessor will lose the $7.6 million rent – we have no indication of receivables since the onset of COVID-19 so this may already have been the case anyway – and be faced with the significant challenge of placing these seven A350s in a very difficult marketing environment. Even if they are able to place these aircraft relatively quickly at our Current Market Lease Rates, which now stand between $580,000 and $700,000 per month, then the aggregate rents will be some 40% lower per month at around $4.6 million.
In the context of AerCap’s average monthly basic lease rents collected for FY2020 – reported at around $314 million in their Q4 2020 earnings release – the monthly delta of $3 million may not seem significant. But the net cash income loss over the contemplated life of the lease is potentially significant. Based on the rents discussed above they would indeed likely exceed $300 million over the life of the originally contemplated 12-year leases.
AerCap are surely not alone in this predicament. Most operating lessors are likely to be facing similar challenges with other airlines and aircraft types on a weekly basis at present. Whilst there are signs of optimism in demand recovery, it seems likely that lessors will be bearing the cost of airline reorganizations for some time to come.
April 7, 2021
2021 – End of the road for a number of business aircraft types
By Daniel Hall, Senior valuations consultant, ISTAT appraiser, ASA senior appraiser, Ascend by Cirium
In a market downturn, product streamlining is commonplace, as is announcing new models or upgrades as the market starts to rebound. The below commentary discusses three different types which saw production announcements in Q1 2021. All of these models were built in the same location – Wichita, Kansas.
Bombardier will end production of the iconic Learjet; over 3,000 have been built since 1964 and more than 2,000 remain in service today. Annual deliveries had been below 20 for some time, and the Learjet is now a casualty as the manufacturer further streamlines itself for efficiency. During the pandemic Lear 45 and 60 values have actually performed quite well but the Lear 70/75 has continued to rapidly depreciate.
Textron’s Beechcraft announced the end of the King Air C90GTx. The clue was with announcements of new KA 260 & 360 (replacing 250 & 350i). Since the early 1960s almost 3,000 of over 25 variants of the KA90 have been built with around 2,200 in service today. Deliveries numbered around 50 annually pre-2008, but have been sub-15 annually for six years now. The KA90 has actually exhibited really strong value retention and we expect the future outlook to remain bright.
The OEM’s Cessna brand announced the end of the Citation Sovereign+. This had been expected following full certification of the Latitude and Longitude. Those aircraft were clean sheets with superior cabins, and while the Sovereign could compete on a midsize segment price among other aircraft which didn’t offer a true transcontinental range, Embraer’s Praetor 500 has commenced deliveries and offers that. Historically competing with the Hawker 125 / 800 series, 450 were delivered since 2004. More recently, new deliveries had fallen to below 10 per year.
Although the pandemic has forced the cessation of these aircraft types, OEM product support is expected to continue, which will sustain the products’ life and value cycles.
MARCH 31, 2021
A look at the fleet of the world’s new “largest” lessor in China, and its implication for Chinese lessors
By Yuanfei Zhao (Scott), Aviation Analyst at Ascend by Cirium
In recent years, there have been voices in the industry talking about the shift of market power between domestic Chinese lessors and foreign lessors, both of whom compete in the relatively large Chinese leasing market. While the Chinese owned lessors clearly manage the majority of the leased fleet in the domestic market today, some qualitative elements should also be considered when making such a comparison.
The portfolio composition of the world’s new “largest” lessor (the planned AerCap/GECAS merged entity) shows that the proportion of each of the most popular single-aisle and twin-aisle passenger jets managed by the largest lessor against the total lessor managed fleet in China.
While there are currently close to 70 domestic and foreign lessors actively managing fleet in China, it is noteworthy that the proportion of new generation narrow-body and wide-body fleet managed just by the AerCap/GECAS combination in the Chinese market is so high.
This reflects the fact that the world’s leading lessor is weighting more strategic focus on the high-end market in the world’s fastest growing aviation market. This strategy leverages its buying power and favourable slot positions at the OEMs. On the other hand, this also reflects the forward-looking nature of the top tier lessors who tend to plan and invest in premium assets.
The implication here for those Chinese lessors who do not yet have any orders for new aircraft types is that the current downturn provides the opportunity for them to proactively seek purchase and leaseback deals with airlines for new types, or seek to work with OEMs to provide finance for new deliveries where the existing financier has fallen away. Once the market has fully recovered and once again returned to long-term growth in the latter part of this decade, the barriers for acquiring new types could be even higher, so now is the time for action.
MARCH 23, 2021
It’s the hour for by-the-hour
By Thomas Kaplan, Valuations Consultant at Ascend by Cirium
US Bankruptcy courts have been busy this week as we learned of court approvals for amended lease agreements between BBAM & Aeromexico and GECAS & Avianca. These lease agreements are to be based on “by-the-hour” (PBH) payments, rather than a fixed monthly lease rate. PBH agreements have become very common now for new leases, lease extensions and lease restructurings, but what does it mean for lessor revenue?
The Aeromexico restructured lease was for 13 year old 737-800 MSN 34954 which has not flown since last April, per Cirum Tracked Utilization data. It is not known if there is a minimum monthly payment due, but if the utilization stays this low, the lessor won’t be getting much revenue and far below our Market Lease Rate (MLR) opinion of $138k. Prior to Covid, the aircraft was flying over 300 hours per month which, in the unlikely event that utilization returns to those levels soon, the PBH could be more profitable than a 138k lease rate.
The Avianca leases are for 2010-build A320s, MSNs 4487 and 4599. While these sat idle for most of the time since March 2020, they started seeing utilization in October last year and in February 2021 MSN 4487 even notched over 100 hours. Our MLR for these is $140k per month, so even if we assume a high PBH rate of $1,000/Flight Hour, lessors revenue would still be ~30% below the fixed rate.
Why are lessors agreeing to PBH if it means a large cut in revenue? The difficult remarketing environment means that lessors have few alternatives in the short term. Should they take out their aircraft from the defaulting airline, where and when would they place it? And what costs would they have to incur in terms of storage, insurance, reconfiguration etc? And how much would they forego in terms of end of lease compensation with the original lessee? So long as demand for new leases remains low we’d expect these PBH type deals to continue.
MARCH 18, 2021
Scaling the wall of cash
By Michael Graham, Valuations Manager at Ascend by Cirium
Pandemic? What pandemic? Since the start of 2021, one could be forgiven for thinking that international bond markets have been completely ignoring the tumult caused by COVID-19, such is their desire to invest in commercial aviation. For example, at the end of February, EasyJet successfully raised €1.2billion worth of seven-year bonds at a yield of just 1.875% in an offer that was significantly oversubscribed, with almost €6bn worth of demand. In January, Castlelake enjoyed even healthier demand for its $595million CLAS 2021-1 ABS offering, which was up to 12.3 times oversubscribed. In January alone, lessors raised a combined sum of almost $15billion either through bond issuances or ABSs.
While this can be seen a vote of confidence in the sector, the sheer demand exhibited by the market also testifies to the significant ‘wall of cash’ currently chasing after a limited number of suitable opportunities.
As yields on government bonds fell to virtually zero in 2020, many investors have found themselves moving towards comparatively riskier corporate issuances to generate income. It is perhaps unsurprising therefore that airlines, lessors and OEMs have taken advantage of this recent market appetite, in order to bolster cash reserves and refinance existing debt, lest the recovery in passenger numbers become more protracted than anticipated, or if bond investors become more nervous.
Indeed, in the past couple of weeks, there have been signs of turbulence within fixed income markets, with US 10 Year Treasury Yields rising to their highest level since January 2020, thanks to a hawkish US Federal Reserve, as well as the US Government’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, the by-product of which could be higher inflation. If central banks were to respond by raising interest rates, this would push up the cost of capital for all sectors, including aviation. A further sign, if one were needed, that the recovery from COVID-19 could be far from smooth.
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MARCH 10, 2021
Will Boeing 737-800 Values Have to Reduce Further?
by Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium
Early last week Skytech-AIC announced a mandate from SilkAir and Singapore Airlines to re-market seven 2014-2016 vintage Boeing 737-800s for sale. The 737-800 has enjoyed less used aircraft supply pressure through 2020 than many of its peers and competitors. As a consequence the type saw lower fleet weighted average Current Market Value declines last year than peer types.
However, as the global pace of demand recovery remains slow and 737 Max is now returning to service, further supply pressure is building. In addition to the Skytech-AIC mandate, there are two portfolios of Norwegian’s own 737-800s, each ten aircraft, being marketed by two different third-parties. A quick review of the Airfax aircraft availability listing for March 2021 reveals no less than 59 737-800s currently being advertised for sale and / or lease, including these 20 units but not the Skytech seven. That’s increased from only ten aircraft advertised in the same source in March 2020.
Our own Cirium Core fleets data paints an even bleaker picture. As of last Friday, we recorded 99 737-800s currently idle with lessors which have no future fate identified. There are also a further 41 such parked aircraft which are scheduled for future P2F conversion (23), new lease (16) and part-out (2). Back in early July 2020 that idle total was only 31 aircraft, so the recent change is evident and fundamental.
With this in mind we have already reduced 737-800 Current Market Values by a further 11%-22% this year, depending upon vintage. These changes are further supported by transaction data – a mix of cash sales, bids and purchase offers (including those that were rejected) and some part-outs that suggested our previous value opinions were too high.
Given the demand and supply outlook for the type, perhaps those value changes won’t be the last in 2021?
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MARCH 10, 2021
Ascend by Cirium Thought of the Week – How has the market evolved during 2021 Chinese New Year?
By Joanna Lu, Head of Consultancy Asia at Ascend by Cirium
Although the domestic market had more or less returned to 2019 levels, airlines in China were less aggressive in planning their capacities for the 2021 Chinese New Year holiday. Schedule data indicates capacity was typically planned around 10% below the same period in 2020 across different tourist cities. Importantly nowadays airlines are adjusting their schedules on a weekly basis and it is common to see capacity reduce significantly just a week or two prior to actual operation. There were signs of this prior to 2021 CNY. Flight tracking data then reveals the number of flights actually flown. These declined precipitously in the week prior to and during New Year’s week, but flights have now recovered to the same level as observed in December 2020.
Although in the last couple of days traffic did bounce back, the overall air traffic number during the Chinese New Year travel period in 2021 was around 60% down compared to the same Lunar New Year period in 2020. Due to all the disruptions and uncertainty to travel, a new travel booking pattern might be that passengers are now booking flights on a much shorter time horizon, perhaps within a few days of travel now than the few weeks or months that was previously the trend. This leaves airlines with a significant capacity planning challenge as they seek to match their supply to a continued uncertain demand.
Source: Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China