Before using the Cirium Scenario Planner tool, a user should spend time reviewing schedules and traffic figures data to help inform route forecasting. Scenario Planner allows users to apply a stimulation factor to the market by adjusting market share, market size or fares.
Step 1: Market input
A user can select the future month and year for a proposed route along with selecting the historical demand time period on which the scenario will be based. The user will add the prospective origin and destination, flight departure times, and update the equipment by aircraft type. Importantly users can update the operational days by using a 1-7 format that represents Monday to Sunday. This will allow the user to forecast less-than-daily routes.
Step 2: Market adjustments
Users can stimulate the market to represent fare and demand changes on a specific route. The analyst can differentiate stimulation between local and flow markets to more adequately represent the passenger composition of the route being forecasted.
Step 3: Quality Service Index (QSI)
Users can quantify several qualitative factors. Type of aircraft and non-stop or one stop have different scores that relate to expected passenger experience – widebody – non-stop is the best experience – turbo-prop – one stop is less desirable, and can be reflected as such in the model.
Step 4 – Connection windows
Passengers prefer shorter total travel time on a journey versus spending a lot of time waiting for a connecting flight at a midpoint. Users need to be able to model this preference on a route-by-route basis. The analyst can require the model to penalize long connections while favouring itineraries that require less time at a connecting airport.
Step 5 – Time of day factors
Passengers typically will want to fly at certain times and want to avoid late at night connections or arrivals. The user can increase the score if they have evidence that a route will be more popular at a certain time. For example, a flight between two business hubs that arrives at 8am will provide enough time for the traveller to arrive at a meeting.
Step 6 – Circuity level
Before adjusting the circuity threshold in the model users can add information on code share partners and relevant metro codes. Routes with low circuity result in more favorable scores in the model as the passenger itinerary is shorter than itineraries that require more distance to be covered.
Step 7 – Analyze results
After completing the previous steps, a user is presented with a set of results that include detailed information on the route. Including but not limited to information on weekly industry passengers, Industry fare, modelled Quality of Service Index (QSI) points for the specific route and the airline’s base QSI, in order to derive a forecasted passenger count, load factor and fare revenue for the scenario being planned. Airports can present this information to specific airlines in their business case for proposed new service.
New Cirium route forecast tool: Scenario Planner
Existing Cirium Diio, Cirium SRS Analyzer with FM Traffic customers can now subscribe to Cirium Scenario planner. A new add-on that helps Airports to propose new routes based on actual performance.
- Stimulate the market with historical traffic and schedules data
- Adjust potential connection, and, arrival & departure times
- Analyze forecast outputs at the O&D level