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Aviation fuel suppliers can better estimate future demand of jet fuel

December 6, 2022

Enhanced consumption data is being used throughout the industry to address business challenges.

Jim Hetzel
Isaac Pato
Sheik Muraadh

By Jim Hetzel, Director of Product Marketing; Isaac Pato, Aviation Data Analyst / Engineer, Sheik Muraadh, Aviation Fuel & Aircraft Leasing EMEA at Cirium


As the aviation industry continues to grow, so does the demand for aviation fuel. To meet this ever-increasing demand, aviation fuel suppliers need to have a clear understanding of past and present trends in fuel consumption to accurately forecast the future needs. More precise data is now available to help these suppliers more accurately estimate future demand. This article looks at how enhanced consumption data is being used throughout the industry to address business challenges.

Enhanced fuel consumption data at work

One of the biggest benefits of enhanced fuel consumption data is that it is helping aviation fuel suppliers fine-tune their production plans.

In the past, suppliers have had to rely on estimates that were based on limited factors, including aircraft type, and miles flown.

However, these estimates were often imprecise, which made it difficult for suppliers to know how much fuel to produce to meet demand. 

New data enrichments help suppliers be more precise in their planning by providing them with detailed estimates on how much fuel will be needed by airlines tomorrow and over the next several months. This information goes beyond aircraft type and miles flown by factoring ground time (taxi in/out), airtime, take-off weight, aircraft configuration, aircraft weight, landing weight, passenger and cargo loads, and other factors that can impact fuel consumption. By considering these factors, suppliers can more accurately estimate how much fuel will be needed in the future and plan their production and distribution accordingly. 

What are the benefits? 

This new level of precision in planning can be attributed to several benefits for both aviation fuel suppliers and airlines.  

On the supplier side, there is less waste because production is better aligned with actual demand.

This means that less fuel needs to be stockpiled, which reduces costs. In addition, shorter lead times are now possible because production can be aligned with demand. All these factors together lead to increased efficiency and profitability for aviation fuel suppliers.  

* Powered by Cirium’s Global Fuel Forecast Workbook 

Additionally, precise fuel consumption data can help aviation fuel suppliers optimize their operations and supply chains. For example, if a supplier knows that a particular airport is using more fuel than expected, the supplier can adjust its delivery schedule accordingly. Or, if a supplier learns that a customer is using a different type of aircraft than anticipated, the supplier can make sure that the correct type of fuel is delivered. The availability of more precise data will allow aviation fuel suppliers to improve their operations and better serve their customers.  

For airlines, the benefits are twofold. First, they can get the aviation fuel they need when they need it because production can be coordinated with demand patterns. Second, they can save money because they are no longer paying for excess fuel that goes unused due to inaccurate planning on the part of suppliers.  

* Powered by Cirium’s Global Fuel Forecast Workbook 

The results are clear 

Accurate forecasting is essential for any business, but it is especially important for businesses that deal in commodities like aviation fuel. The ability to predict future demand with greater accuracy will allow aviation fuel suppliers to optimize their pricing strategies and/or enter hedging contracts with greater confidence. Additionally, precise fuel consumption data can help aviation fuel suppliers optimize their operations and supply chains. Cirium provides these suppliers with more precise data that will enable aviation fuel suppliers to make better decisions about supply and pricing, which is essential to their bottom line as well as their customers – the airlines who purchase jet fuel from them in large quantities.   

Cirium Fuel Consumption Forecast 

Cirium dashboard leverages Cirium’s proprietary fuel and emissions model to provide accurate fuel consumption and emission estimates. 

By applying the industry’s most accurate fuel burn modeling to comprehensive datasets – spanning physical aircraft, flight operations, and payload information; Cirium is uniquely positioned to forecast global fuel consumption empowering our customers to better predict demand. 

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW OUR FUEL BURN DATA AND FORECASTING CAPABILITIES CAN BENEFIT YOUR ORGANIZATION, CONTACT US. 

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