Ascend by Cirium delivered a presentation in an Airline Economics Webinar on Friday 27 March which included a slide that analyzed operating lessor OEM backlog and highlighted known and unknown lease placements for 2020 and 2021 deliveries.
To be clear, the aircraft labelled as unplaced (and scheduled for delivery in 2020 and 2021 according to the Cirium Fleets Analyzer database) are those aircraft that Cirium estimates will be delivered to the relevant operating lessors over the stated period but where Cirium has no knowledge of a contracted customer placement.
Since we are not party to confidential lessor firm backlog, there is a risk that we have overstated availability for lessors.
In particular, it has been brought to our attention that the situation shown for AerCap varies significantly from that stated in their most recent (November 2019) investor presentation when we understand they explained the requirement to place only three aircraft from their 2020 OEM delivery schedule with customers and a further 15 such aircraft in 2021.
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