Fleets Forecast for 2021-2040

Financial investments

Industry trend — Monitoring the secondary market for fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft

December 9, 2020

In 2020, data from Cirium Fleets Analyzer lists 9,031 secondary market transactions involved 8,048 unique aircraft across all market classes.

The secondary market has been witnessed interesting activity in 2020, albeit with less transactions from a year ago, as the various market classes have represented unique opportunities for buyers and sellers. Data from Cirium Fleets Analyzer, during the January-November 2020 period, shows monthly peaks and valleys of aircraft involved in secondary market transactions from out-right purchases, purchased off lease and purchased-subject to existing lease.

In 2020, data from Cirium Fleets Analyzer lists 9,031 secondary market transactions involved 8,048 unique aircraft across all market classes. The comparative figure for 2019 is 11,877 secondary market transactions across all 11,363 aircraft for a decrease of 29% YoY for all market classes (plus an additional 1,448 transactions involving 1,373 unique aircraft for December 2019). Market classes range from commercial aviation, business aviation, helicopters, military fixed-wing and utility transport but excludes general aviation piston-engine aircraft.

Commercial Aviation

The total number of 2020 single-aisle and twin-aisle jets in secondary market transactions involved 581 unique aircraft. The comparative figure for 2019 is 1,107 unique aircraft for a decrease of 43% YoY (plus an additional 165 unique aircraft for December 2019). 737-800s, and A320-200s and 737-700s represented 56% of aircraft for 2020 in the single-aisle market class. 767-300ERs, 777-200ERs and 747-400Fs represented 46% of aircraft for 2020 in the twin-aisle market class.

the secondary market for fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft

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The total number of 2020 regional jets and regional turboprops in secondary market transactions involved 392 unique aircraft. The comparative figure for 2019 is 735 unique aircraft for a decrease of 43% YoY (plus an additional 52 unique aircraft for December 2019). CRJ200s, E190s and ERJ-145s represented 62% of aircraft for 2020 in the regional jet market class. Beech 1900D and C-1 variants, Q400s and Dash-8 100s represented 50% of aircraft for 2020 in the regional turboprop market class.

the secondary market for fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft
  • Separately, purchase-and-leasebacks (PLBs) activity (subscription to Cirium Dashboard required), of used commercial aircraft compared to newly delivered aircraft is highlighted by Ascend by Cirium senior consultant Max Kingsley-Jones where he reviews lessor transaction volumes this year

Business Aviation

The total number of 2020 business jets and business turboprops in secondary market transactions involved 3,323 unique aircraft. The comparative figure for 2019 is 4,225 unique aircraft for a decrease of 14% YoY (plus an additional 644 aircraft for December 2019). With regards to market classes:

  • Hawker 800s, Learjet 45 and 60 variants, 680 Citation Sovereigns, 560XL Citation Excels and 650 Citation IIIs represented 50% of the aircraft in the Midsize – Jets market grouping; 750 Citation Xs, Falcon 2000s and Falcon 50s, Challenger 300s and Challenger 604s represented 51% of the aircraft for 2020 in the Super Midsize – Jets market grouping;
  • 550 Citation IIs, 525B CJ3s, 525 CitationJets, Phenom 300s, 560 Citation Vs, 550 Citation Bravos, 525A CJ2s, 501 Citation I SPs and Citation M2s represented 51% of the aircraft in the Light – Jets market grouping; Phenom 100s and 510 Citation Mustangs represented 57% of the aircraft for 2020 in the Very Light – Jets market grouping;
  • PA-46-500TP Malibu Meridians, PC-12-47s and 208B Grand Caravans represented 45% of aircraft for 2020 in the Single Engine-Turboprops market grouping; King Air 350, 200 & B200 and C90 & C90B represented over 45% of aircraft in the Multi Engine-Turboprops market grouping.

Civil Helicopters

The total number of 2020 civil turbine and civil piston helicopters in secondary market transactions involved 2,005 unique aircraft. The comparative figure for 2019 is 2,719 unique aircraft for a decrease of 20% YoY (plus an additional 232 aircraft for December 2019). With regards to market classes:

  • Bell 206 Bs, AS350 B2 & B3 variants, R66, Bell 407s and H125s represented 53% of aircraft in the Single Engine – Turbine market grouping; AW109Es, S-76 Cs, AW109S/SPs, H225s, AW139s, Bell 429s and EC145s (BK117 C2) represented 37% of aircraft for 2020 in the Multi Engine – Turbine market grouping;
  • R44 Raven & Raven II variants and R22 Betas represented 75% of aircraft for 2020 in the Single Engine – Piston market grouping.
the secondary market for fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft

Further reading:

The unfolding impact of COVID-19 on business aviation

More (or less) oil on troubled waters

SOLUTIONS AT WORK

Five top-level insights with Cirium Fleets Analyzer

Monitor the evolving landscape and identify the next opportunities using the most complete fleets data in the aviation industry

Cirium’s fleet data stretches over 300 unique aircraft fields in over 400,000 aircraft records driven by over two million event records from the beginning of the jet-engine age of the 1950s through to the current order backlog. The comprehensiveness of this foundation data set allows our clients to track operational and financial-related developments at the individual aircraft level for commercial aviation, business aviation, turbine and piston helicopters and military fixed-wing aircraft.

The following five insights from our fleet data set details the various developments being affected by the Coronavirus pandemic affects to the aviation industry:

  1. Aircraft Financing
    Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium, describes how market opportunities created by the pandemic could propel the leasing sector into an increasing share of the industry’s assets: COVID-19 crisis could lead lessors to 50% fleet penetration
  2. Aircraft Transactions
    Fixed-wing and rotary-wing secondary market trends.
  3. Fleet Storage
    The Coronavirus pandemic led to over 65% of the global fleet entering into storage over a four-week period. The data research team at Cirium explain their methodology for stored aircraft during and after the pandemic: Understanding Cirium’s methodology for stored aircraft during COVID-19
  4. Fleet Retirements
    Airline retirement announcements show the removal of aircraft from operational service and financial reporting where the confirmation of aircraft’s end-of-life is at a time unknown to the industry: Understanding how end-of-life commercial aircraft retirements are determined in the Cirium data research process
  5. Fleet Data Research Team
    The Fleets and MRO research team is made up of over 45+ researchers and analysts with many years subject-matter-expertise and industry expertise in the various elements that make up this foundation dataset. They are often able to add additional color and detail and can assist with a variety of data questions both internally and externally.
    In 2019, the fleet data research team recorded over 424,000 updates, equating to over 1,000 updates a day for fixed-wing and rotary-wing updates. These updates are happening overnight every single day, so the data is only ever a maximum of 24-hours out of date. Spotlight on Cirium’s fleets database research team with Gabby Gibson, Senior Data Researcher
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