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Ascend Consultancy Weekly Team Perspective: Advanced air mobility – snapshot July 2024

The number of commitments and orders recorded in Cirium’s database has increased to over 14,500 as of 24 June 2024.

Aircraft Appraiser of the Year


Ascend analyst Yiru Zhang

By Yiru Zhang, valuations analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

At the mid-point of the year, the Cirium Ascend team has noticed that the advanced air mobility (AAM) sector is getting more and more attention. This is reflected in the number of commitments and orders recorded in Cirium’s database, which has increased to over 14,500 as of 24 June 2024, with over 1,000 new commitments and orders since our last update in April 2024. Data coverage includes:

Regional Electric – SmallAura AeroERA
Regional Electric – SmallHeart AerospaceES-19Programme cancelled, and revised to ES-30
Regional Electric – SmallHeart AerospaceES-30
Regional Electric – SmallLYTE AviationLA-44 Skybus
Regional Electric – SmallMaeve AerospaceMaeve 01Programme cancelled, OEM revised to M80
Regional Electric – SmallJektaPHA-ZE 100
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAerofugiaAE200
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityDufour AerospaceAero3
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityBETA TechnologiesALIA-250
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityManta AircraftANN2
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAscendance Flight TechnologiesAtea
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOverair IncButterfly
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityHorizon AircraftCavorite X7Newly added
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityPlanaCopterPlane CP-01
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityWisk Aero LLCCora
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityTCab TechE20 eVTOL
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEHangEH216
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEve Air MobilityEve
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityCrisalion MobilityIntegrityNewly added
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJaunt Air MobilityJourney
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityLilium GmbHLilium Jet
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityArcher AviationMidnight
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOdys AviationOdys eVTOL
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAutoFlightProsperity 1
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJoby AviationS4
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySkyDriveSD-05
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySirius AviationSirius Jet
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityXTI Aircraft CompanyTriFan 600
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAMSL AeroVertiiaNewly added
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloCity
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloConnect
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEHangVT-30
eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVertical Aerospace Group LtdVX4
eVTOL – UAV/UASBETA TechnologiesALIA-250c
Business Electric – Single EngineVoltAeroCassio 330
Business Electric – Single EngineBETA TechnologiesCX300
Business Electric – Multi EngineEviationAlice
Business Electric – Multi EngineBye AerospaceeFlyer 800
Business Electric – Multi EngineElectraElectra eSTOL
Business Electric – Multi EngineElectronElectron 5
Business Electric – Multi EngineAirflowM200

eVTOLs – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

The eVTOL – UAM sector has generated the most activity in the market both in terms of the number of aircraft in development, and commitments received to date. Since the last update in April 2024, the sector has attracted 640 new order commitments. The space now has a total of slightly under 11,000 order commitments captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer. Eve Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to lead the sector with 2,900 and 1,553 commitments respectively.

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 24 June 2024

At the same time, the first certificated type – EHang – has made it to third place with 500 new commitments (including 50 on orders and 450 on options) from Xishan Tourism gained in May 2024. After the newly placed commitments, Xishan Tourism is now EHang’s largest customer and also its second buyer from China. The EHang EH216 orderbook is still concentrated in Asia, with the above mentioned China’s Xishan Tourism ordering 500 units, Indonesia’s Prestige Aviation at 101, United Arab Emirates’ Wings Logistics Hub at 100, China’s Shenzhen Boling Holding Group at 95 units, Malaysia’s Aerotree Flight Services Sdn Bhd at 61 units and Japan’s AirX Inc at 50 units.

The global market for eVTOLs shows a varied regional distribution, with strong presence in North America (3,390), Asia-Pacific (3,185) and Europe (1,705), driven by differing levels of technological advancement, regulatory backing and investment interest.

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 24 June 2024

By looking at the chart below, North America has been accumulating a large number of orders at an early stage and has continued to lead since. As of 24 June 2024, North America is still leading at over 3,350 orders, driven predominantly by the USA (over 3,200). Asia-Pacific followed with rapid and sustained growth to nearly 3,200 orders, where India (900), China (501), Japan (402), South Korea (220) and Vietnam (200) were the top contributors. Europe’s total orders stood at slightly above 1,700, with Ireland now at 755, becoming the largest share and exceeding that for the UK at 473. Latin America and the Middle East followed, showing substantial orders of 550 and 355 respectively. In Latin America, Brazil dominates with 530 orders. In the Middle East, the known only contributors are UAE and Saudi Arabia with 245 and 110 orders separately.

North America has been accumulating a large number of orders at an early stage and has continued to lead since.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as at 24th June 2024

The sector has drawn significant private investments and has also received support from various countries and regions. The research and development of AAM is also part of the technological competition between different countries. In the USA, NASA’s Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) National Campaign and the FAA’s UAM (Urban Air Mobility) Concept of Operations aim to integrate eVTOLs into the national airspace, which involve substantial government investment and collaboration with private industry to develop safe and efficient eVTOL operations. The UK government launched the Future Flight Challenge, a £300 million ($380 million) programme that includes significant investment in eVTOL technologies to revolutionise air transport. The Chinese government is heavily investing in smart city projects, from which EHang received strong support. There are also Germany’s BMVI funding programme, Japan’s Public-Private Conference for Future Air Mobility Revolution, Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) partnership with Volocopter, and South Korea’s K-UAM (Korea Urban Air Mobility) Roadmap, etc.

All of the above-mentioned programmes and support indicate that the AAM sector will experience rapid growth in the next decade.

Business electric – multi-engine

In the business electric sector, Electra’s eSTOL has received almost 1,350 order commitments, including from notable clients like the helicopter lessor Bristow Group. However, the identities of the majority of these order commitments remain undisclosed. Heart Aerospace’s ES-30 follows with over 750 order commitments after the ES-19 programme was cancelled and switched to the ES-30. Aura Aero’s ERA holds third place with nearly 500 order commitments.

Business electric – multi-engine
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 24 June 2024

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