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  • AAM Snapshot April 2024

    READ ALL OF THE LATEST UPDATES FROM ASCEND CONSULTANCY EXPERTS WHO DELIVER POWERFUL ANALYSIS, COMMENTARIES AND PROJECTIONS TO AIRLINES, AIRCRAFT BUILD AND MAINTENANCE COMPANIES, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INSURERS AND NON-BANKING FINANCIERS. MEET THE ASCEND CONSULTANCY TEAM.

    Ascend analyst Tim Chun Hing Li
    Ascend analyst Tim Chun Hing Li

    Tim Li, Aviation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    As we move into the second quarter of the year, the Cirium Fleets Analyzer database logged slightly below 450 new order commitments for the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector since the beginning of this year, taking the total to slightly over 13,500. The AAM market is inching closer to some of its initial target dates for operation, including Volocopter vowing to begin operations during the Paris Olympics 2024. Some progress has been made in the first quarter, with EHang kickstarting its public sale of the E216-S after obtaining the world’s first type certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), and other OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) obtaining production organization approvals (POAs) from their regulators, which further paves the way towards production of the designs. However, there is still no absolute certainty that these operations will be realised.

    Data coverage Includes:

    Market GroupingManufacturerTypeComment
    eVTOL – UAV/UASBETA TechnologiesALIA-250 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAMSL AeroVertiiaNewly added
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAerofugiaAE200 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityArcher AviationMidnight 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAscendance Flight TechnologiesAtea 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAutoFlightProsperity 1 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityBETA TechnologiesALIA-250 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityCrisalion MobilityIntegrityNewly added
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityDuFour AerospaceAero3 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEHangEH216 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEHangVT-30 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEve Air MobilityEve 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityHorizon AircraftCavorite X7Newly added
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJaunt Air MobilityJourney 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJoby AviationS4 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityLilium GmbHLilium Jet 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityManta AircraftANN2 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOdys AviationOdys eVTOL 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOverair IncButterfly 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityPlanaCopterPlane CP-01 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySirius AviationSirius Jet 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySkyDriveSD-05 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityTCab TechE20 eVTOL 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVertical Aerospace Group LtdVX4 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloCity 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloConnect 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityWisk Aero LLCCora 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityXTI Aircraft CompanyTriFan 600 
    Business Electric – Multi EngineElectraElectra eSTOL 
    Business Electric – Multi EngineAirflowM200 
    Business Electric – Multi EngineBye AerospaceeFlyer 800 
    Business Electric – Multi EngineElectronElectron 5 
    Business Electric – Multi EngineEviationAlice 
    Business Electric – Single EngineBETA TechnologiesCX300 
    Business Electric – Single EngineVoltAeroCassio 330 
    Regional Electric – SmallAura AeroERA 
    Regional Electric – SmallHeart AerospaceES-19Programme cancelled, and revised to ES-30
    Regional Electric – SmallHeart AerospaceES-30 
    Regional Electric – SmallJektaPHA-ZE 100 
    Regional Electric – SmallLYTE AviationLA-44 Skybus 
    Regional Electric – SmallMaeve AerospaceMaeve 01Programme cancelled, OEM revised to M80*

    eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

    The total number of order commitments captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer for the eVTOL sector is now slightly above 10,300. EVE Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to stand out as the OEMs with the most order commitments, even though they did not record any new in the past nine months. These new commitments are predominantly from the Asia Pacific region and are lacking familiar names like lessors that previously logged.

    Source: Cirium Core, as of 3 April 2024

    Source: Cirium Core, as of 3 April 2024

    Sustaining Financing: A Vital Component for Industry Growth

    According to Cirium data, there has been a decrease in the rate of growth of order commitments. In the past six months, the net growth of total commitments amounted to just slightly below 600 units, with around 80% of activity from the Asia Pacific region. Overall, these order commitments observed represents a decline of over 50% compared to the previous six-month period. However, during this stage in the development cycle, a slowdown in the rate of orders is not unexpected.

    As per Cirium’s Fleets Analyzer database, there are currently more than 20 designs registered that have received order commitments, with new entrants continuing to emerge. These factors indicate that enthusiasm towards the AAM market has not yet started to fade.

    Source: Cirium Core, as of 3 April 2024

    An order commitment generally means payment is committed to be made in the future and is often subject to agreed terms and conditions. An example of such a condition is meeting development timelines. While commitments can increase the confidence of investors and eventually translate into payments, they are often not an immediate source of cashflow for the OEM. Product development, particularly of such pioneering technology, is both lengthy and costly. To achieve any milestones set out to fulfil promises and thereby the ability to realise the AAM vision, the OEMs will continue to require new financing, either from their parent companies, governments or existing/new investors.

    A decrease in direct financing would have significant implications for the future development of the industry. In order to ensure continued support for product development and marketing efforts, consolidation could be something to watch for in the near to medium-term future.

    Business Electric – Multi Engine

    Source: Cirium Core, as of 3 April 2024

    The total tally of order commitments for the electric business aircraft sector now stands over 3,200, marking an increase of approximately 500 commitments in the last six months. The Dallas-based JSX Airlines accounts for over 330 of them, spreading across types including Aura Aero’s ERA, Electra’s eSTOL, and Heart Aerospace’s ES-30. Electra’s eSTOL also received an additional commitment from US-based regional aircraft operators Surf Air (90), as well as from India’s Jet Set Go (50).

    *The European startup Maeve Aerospace has revised its strategy and introduced a new concept, an 80-seater hybrid-electric aircraft dubbed the M80. This means that the original M01 44-seater is now on hold. It remains uncertain whether the initial orders will be transferred.

    Most designs for this larger gauge concepts have now diverted from the vision of the aircraft being fully powered by electricity alone, and are instead based on a hybrid concept.

    The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us for more information.

    Sara Dhariwal
    Lead Appraiser – Helicopters & AAM

    Ascend analyst Tim Chun Hing Li

    Tim Chun-Hing Li
    Aviation Analyst

    Pascal Chui

    Pascal Chui
    Valuations Analyst

    Yuri Zhang

    Yuri Zhang
    Valuations Analyst

    Eric Tamang

    Eric Tamang
    Valuations Analyst

  • Navigating Offshore Helicopter Demand in 2024

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Eleni Maragkou, Valuations Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    The offshore oil & gas (O&G) helicopter market presents the industry with more opportunities for replacement rather than growth in the next decade. The emphasis is predicted to be on newer designs with better economics and payload/range, according to the Cirium Helicopter Forecast and discussion at the latest Cirium webinar, Helicopter Offshore 2024. The panel provided perspectives on market dynamics and the future outlook, from industry experts comprising Bristow senior vice-president key accounts Samantha Willenbacher, Lider Aviacao chief executive Junia Hermont, and Cirium Ascend Consultancy lead appraiser helicopters and AAM Sara Dhariwal. The event was moderated by Cirium Ascend Consultancy head of consultancy operations Chris Wills, a senior ISTAT appraiser.

    In summary:

    • The ratio of the operational O&G helicopter fleet to the number of oil rigs decreased from a high of 1.1 in 2016 to 0.8 in 2024.
    • The in-service offshore configured fleet has contracted by around 25% from the peak in 2014.
    • Preference is shifting towards the cabin and range combinations of medium and super medium aircraft sizes.
    • The Cirium Helicopter Fleet Forecast predicts limited growth, with 90% of the 400 new deliveries forecast in the next 10 years to be replacements and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 0.3%.
    • Petrobras in Brazil is increasing activity, with an investment of $102 billion forecast during 2024-2028, while new bids for 2026-2027 are expected to add 50 aircraft.

    Sara Dhariwal noted that the proportion of operational helicopters relative to the number of active oil rigs has reduced from a high of 1.1 in 2016 to 0.8 today. It indicates that there has been a reduction in the significant surplus that existed following the O&G downturn. The reduction is due both to a recovery and increase in active oil rigs, and the fact that the in-service offshore configured fleet has contracted by around 25% since the peak in 2014.

    There is a shift in preference away from single engine and light/intermediate twins, towards the larger cabin and longer-range combination of the medium twin and super medium aircraft sizes. The Cirium Helicopter Forecast predicts that this trend is likely to persist in the next decade, driven by various factors including a move away from the heavy size due to limited replacement opportunity.

    Right sizing remains a key factor for the industry and helicopter values, with the past decade seeing both under- and over-capacity. The implications of this trend were also discussed, based on the future of the offshore market, with a need to adapt to changing market dynamics and for operators to invest in the right size of helicopters to meet demand and customer needs. Diversification of the fleet is key to mitigating supply-orientated risks.

    In the higher capacity helicopter categories, there is evidence that the super mediums, including the AW189 and the H175, are gaining more market share from the main heavy type, the Sikorsky S-92A.

    Competition in this size category is about to become even greater with the entry of the Bell 525 Relentless. During HAI HeliExpo 2024, Norwegian oil major Equinor announced a commitment for 10 Bell 525s, which is the first major order for the type.

    Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2026. The increasing competition in this size category reflects the preference for helicopters with greater capacity and range, catering to the evolving needs of offshore operations. The Cirium Helicopter Fleet Forecast suggests that the trend is likely to continue into the next decade, driven by technology and changes in operational requirements.

    Age can be challenging if their age limit comes midway through a contract…

    Samantha Willenbacher, Senior Vice-president Key Accounts at Bristow

    Bristow’s Willenbacher commented: “Age can be challenging if their age limit comes midway through a contract… the older AW139s, short nose with TCAS 1 and we are seeing this a lot in Brazil which is switching more to requiring TCAS 2. That is a proportion of the AW139 fleet that is going to need to find a part of the world where these aircraft can operate. Customer requirements are shifting.”

    In terms of values, the Rotorcraft Aircraft Market Sentiment Index (RAMSI) by Cirium Ascend Consultancy focused on the offshore sector and indicated a positive trajectory for most in-production types operating in the sector with values trending upwards. The exception is the S-92A, where there appears to be some uncertainty, as it currently faces issues with a shortage of MRO and spares capacity.

    The Cirium Helicopter Fleet Forecast anticipates the focus to be on the replacement of around one-quarter of the current fleet, meaning that 90% of the forecast 400 new deliveries in the next 10 years will be replacements, and a CAGR of just 0.3%.

    The majority of the deliveries are predicted to be of newer designs with better economics and payload and range. The new medium sized Airbus H160 and super medium Bell 525 will be the latest types entering the offshore market. The forecast is for around 40% of deliveries to be of medium and super medium types, with the combined category anticipated to increase its share to 50% by 2032.

    The challenges in the O&G support industry include the importance of long-term contracts to drive investment confidence and encourage growth and stability in the sector.

    Petrobras contracts have only five years, so in order to invest in new helicopters, we need to have long-term contracts

    Junia Hermont, Chief Executive at Lider Aviacao

    The Cirium Helicopter Fleet Forecast anticipates limited growth over the next decade, driven by emerging markets. Challenges such as equipment diversification, contract terms and an aging fleet remain key considerations for operators. The emergence of new technologies such as manned and unmanned vertical take-off and landing aircraft (VTOLs), could present development opportunities for the industry but requires careful navigation through certification processes and operational adjustments.

    In conclusion, the offshore helicopter market presents both challenges and opportunities while seeing signs of recovery. By understanding the market dynamics, fostering confidence and embracing technological advancements, key industry players can navigate the evolving landscape and capitalise on recovery prospects in the years to come.

    FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US. Watch the webinar, Helicopter Offshore 2024, on demand now.

  • Cirium Congratulates Avianca on Their Historic On-Time Performance

    March 21, 2024, Bogota, Colombia – Cirium, the global leader in aviation analytics, presented the 2023 On-Time Performance (OTP) Award for global airlines to Avianca. The ceremony celebrated and recognized the unwavering dedication by Avianca to on-time performance in 2023.  This is the first on-time global award for the airline in its 104 year history.

    Jeremy Bowen, Chief Executive Officer for Cirium presented the award to crew members and other leaders in the organization representing all who make on-time happen for Avianca and its customers.  The ceremony was attended by Adrian Neuhauser, Executive Vice Chairman, Grupo Abra Group, Frederico “Fred” Pedreira, Chief Executive Officer, Avianca, representatives from Quito airport, ministry of tourism, Colombia immigration services, the Avianca executive team, members of the media, and over 200 Avianca team members.

    As a trusted source of aviation industry data and analytics, Cirium is proud to present this award honoring the achievements of Avianca while underscoring the critical importance of on-time performance in enhancing passenger satisfaction, operational efficiency, and the overall success of the airline industry.

    “Behind this achievement is the commitment of more than 14,000 people from the Avianca team who, in coordination with authorities and allies, work to ensure that our customers reach their destinations safely, on time and with their suitcases. And of course, we thank the more than 32 million passengers who trusted us to fly during 2023. We are proud of this recognition that puts us on a par with world-class airlines and Colombia as an international benchmark in the airline sector.” Frederico Pedreira, CEO, avianca.

    “It takes an incredible amount of hard work and teamwork to run an on-time airline operations when also taking into account all the external factors; weather, staff shortage s, mechanical issues, etc. and especially in 2023 when demand surged.  The positions at the top of the performance table are often only separated by fractions of a percentage.  Avianca won the Global Category with an OTP of 85.73%…just 0.2% higher than the second-place airline.  But it’s turnaround in performance of how Avianca used to perform before the pandemic, to how they’re performing now is what they should be most proud of.   The 2023 OTP figure is over 10% higher than it was in 2019 and 2% higher than 2022.  The turnaround figures are truly remarkable!” – Jeremy Bowen, CEO, Cirium.

    In Cirium’s award analysis, an on-time flight is defined as a flight that arrives within 15 minutes of the scheduled gate arrival. For an airport, it is defined as departing within 15 minutes of its scheduled departure.

    About Avianca:

    Avianca is a company that comprises Avianca- a Star Alliance member- LifeMiles, and Avianca Cargo. In passenger transportation, Avianca is the leading airline in Colombia, Ecuador, and Central America, with over 104 years of continuous operation since 1919. It has one of the largest air operations in Latin America with 147 routes, nearly 710 daily flights, and a fleet of 140 Airbus 320 and Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft, connecting over 75 destinations in 25 countries in the Americas and Europe. In 2023, Avianca transported over 32.3 million customers through the operation of more than 213,000 flights. Its loyalty program, LifeMiles, is one of the largest in Latin America with over 12.4 million members and 500 partner brands. In cargo transportation, Avianca Cargo is a regional leader and the main operator in various markets in the Americas. With its affiliate airline, Aerounion, it serves over 50 destinations with a fleet of 9 cargo aircraft, in addition to cargo operations in passenger aircraft bellies. More information can be found at www.avianca.com.

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

    Report highlights

    • Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running 
    • Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category 
    • Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors 
    • Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award 
    • Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
    DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT

  • 2023 Boeing 737 Production Rates

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    RobMorris Cirium
    RobMorris Cirium

    Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    At the recent Bank of America Global Industrials conference in London on 20 March Boeing’s CFO Brian West was non-specific about the current 737 production rate but did note that previously the company did get to ‘low- to mid-30s’ per month. Cirium fleet data illustrates this via the chart below, which tracks first flights from both Boeing and Airbus’s key single-aisle production lines. However, it also clearly shows that Boeing achieved only 19 and 11 first flights in January and February respectively, well below the ‘low- to mid-30s’ that we can see was achieved between February and July last year when we saw a monthly average close to 36 aircraft. Since that time we have seen a clear downward trajectory and now production sits around ‘low- to mid-teens’.

    What does this mean for 2024 deliveries? At present, Cirium Ascend’s working hypothesis is for 500 737 Max deliveries this year. A few weeks ago that did feel like a robust assumption, but there now seems to be significant downside risk to this hypothesis.

    To date (as I write on 22 March), Cirium’s data records 58 737 deliveries in 2024, including one 737-800 based P-8 which is excluded from the analysis (but is included in the first flight data above). Hence, as we approach end of the quarter only 57 737 Max in that total. The same data indicates that Boeing have 167 Max in inventory – aircraft which have flown but not yet delivered – but this total includes 27 737-7 Max and 6 737-10 Max which almost certainly will not be delivered to customers in 2024 as neither variant has yet been certificated by FAA. Hence, the maximum we can assume will be delivered from inventory is 130 737-8 Max and 4 737-9 Max. Add those to the year-to-date total and we achieve 191 deliveries.

    This means that Boeing will need to fly and deliver a further 309 aircraft to achieve our current hypothesis of 500 deliveries.

    Applying simple arithmetic, that would mean more than 34 new-build aircraft per month if we assume that Boeing is able to ramp back up to its ‘low- to mid-30s’ next month. However, this seems an unlikely scenario. Perhaps more likely to assume that it will take up to three months before Boeing can fix its issues and start to increase production back towards those mid-2023 levels again.

    In this scenario, if we assume that production remains around today’s levels through June, then ramp back towards the ‘low- to mid-30s’ by September, the resulting additional new-build aircraft in 2024 is around 250 units. Adding those to the current total and estimated future deliveries from inventory results in a total 2024 delivery estimate of around 440 aircraft.

    There is one potential bright spot that mitigates this risk marginally. In Boeing’s Q4 earnings call on 29 January, CEO Dave Calhoun noted “there are around 25 airplanes produced in 2023 that are still WIP (work in progress)”. If these aircraft have not yet flown then they could be candidates to be completed and delivered this year, to some extent reducing that downside risk (albeit we don’t know what variant these are).

    Hence, the downside risk to our existing hypothesis of 500 737 Max deliveries in 2024 is around 40-60 aircraft.

    We are already hearing airlines speak of expected delivery shortfalls this year, which continues to exacerbate regional and global capacity shortages. Boeing’s production woes on the 737 need to be fixed quickly if this ‘crisis’ isn’t to continue for a long while yet.

    FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US.

  • The Future of the E175 and 70-Seater Regional Jets

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Alex Vathylakis
    Alex Vathylakis

    Alex Vathylakis, PhD, Principal Valuations Analyst, ISTAT Appraiser, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    In a significant move for Embraer, American Airlines’ recent firm order of 90 new E175-E1 aircraft has not only boosted the OEM’s order book but also created another scope clause oxymoron: a past generation jet at the top of the OEM’s order book, accumulating a total of 190 orders which is almost 10 units more than the E195-E2. Based on American Airlines’ press release, the E175-E1 is expected to deliver through the early 2030s. As the Mitsubishi SpaceJet was already the first scope clause casualty, does the E175-E2 also now face the same threat? And how do the latest developments impact the existing fleet?

    Historical fleet trends show that North America continues to increase its concentration of 30-to-70-seater aircraft, with limited appetite for smaller regional aircraft in other parts of the World.

    At the same time, there seems to be no scope clause relaxation in sight, despite Embraer’s hope to deliver its first E175-E2 in the late 2020s. A substantial order from a non-US, perhaps Indian, operator would thus be the remaining hope for the programme, although this seems unlikely given the past long-term trends.

    While Embraer may have more flexibility to keep a programme dormant for longer, it is presumably more challenging to keep Pratt & Whitney committed to produce a scaled-down GTF engine at smaller volumes than initially planned due to the SpaceJet’s termination. This would be in addition to the major challenges which the wider GTF programme is facing at present and for the years to come.

    All of the above creates continued favourable winds for the larger scope clause compliant regional jets, and especially the most fuel-efficient, “Enhanced” winglet-equipped E175-E1 sub fleet. Despite the US concentration, they are expected to enjoy a solid liquidity advantage as well as better value retention compared to all other 50- to 70-seaters.

    This is also supported by the fact that the 50-seater market will continue to contract, as US Majors United and American follow Delta in exiting the ERJ-145 and CRJ100/200 types.

    At the same time, this is resulting in a reduction in flight frequencies on some routes or the complete cessation of others, making it remarkable that there is such inelasticity in the US market towards introducing turboprops, as perception, and arguably comfort, are not traded for greener, more fuel-efficient, and similarly sized turboprops.

    This suggests a growing opportunity for a new aircraft to fill the gap as well as to bridge a wider range of market classes, which could be anything from a less risky new-gen turboprop, or an open-rotor aircraft family, to a hybrid-electric or hydrogen-powered aircraft. Until then, E175-E1 program will have reached its 30th production anniversary by the time the last of this recent American Airlines order are delivered, marking the longest production run of a commercial passenger jet of its generation.

    SEE MORE ASCEND CONSULTANCY POSTS. LEARN MORE ABOUT CIRIUM FLEETS ANALYZER. OR FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US.

  • The Alaska – Hawaiian Merger

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    YIRU ZHANG
    Yuri Zhang

    Yiru Zhang, Senior Valuation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    The recent termination of the JetBlue and Spirit Airlines merger has brought more attention to the merger of Alaska and Hawaiian Airlines. There are some similarities but also many differences in the two cases. The unsuccessful case might not be a bad sign for Alaska and Hawaiian.

    Route

    Alaska Airlines ranks as the fifth largest passenger airline in the US. It serves more than 100 destinations across North America, with three hubs including San Francisco International Airport (SFO), Portland International Airport (PDX), and Seattle Tacoma International Airport (SEA).

    Meanwhile, Hawaiian Airlines operates a wide network centered around Hawaii to major cities in Asia Oceania, and North America. Key routes are Honolulu to Tokyo, Maui to Seattle, and Honolulu to Los Angeles.

    Once the merger is completed, Alaska’s strong presence on the west coast combined with Hawaiian’s Hawaii-centered routes can bring more flexibility for travelers to connect among destinations covered, for example, Tokyo – Hawaii – San Francisco.

    Source: Alaska Airlines

    Fleet

    Optimization of the fleet structure is one thing that Alaska and Hawaiian must consider. Alaska’s fleet consists of two Boeing Single-Aisle types, 737 NG and 737 Max, with 80 more 737 Max orders through 2027 (which may be delayed due to the recent investigation). Hawaiian operates a fleet with Boeing 717 for domestic short-haul flights, and Airbus A321 and A330 for long-haul transpacific routes.

    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

    In 2023 Hawaiian announced its plan to replace the 717 fleet by early 2024, but due to the increasing demand, there are still 18 717 currently in service. The previously mentioned potential replacements include A220 and E195 E2, while as the merger goes on, it was widely believed that the final pick would be 737 Max. However, given the recent turmoil at Boeing, this is becoming uncertain again.

    Hawaiian Airlines holds firm orders for 18 787-9 aircraft as of today. After the first delivery of the 787-9 earlier this year, Hawaiian Airlines now has three different aircraft types for long-haul missions. Hence, they need to decide which one to keep, to optimise cost on maintenance, training, etc.

    JetBlue-Spirit

    The JetBlue and Spirit merger was blocked by the Justice Department due to a violation of antitrust law. Spirit Airlines has benefitted its travelers by operating as an ultra-low-cost carrier. According to the US Bureau of Transportation (US DOT), in 2023 Spirit Airlines had 5.1% domestic market share. This means that if the merger happened, higher fares would apply to a large group of travelers which could potentially disrupt the market.

    From that perspective, their situation doesn’t seem to apply to the Alaska–Hawaiian case. According to the same statistics by USDOT, Alaska and Hawaiian rank fifth and tenth, respectively, with market shares of 6.4% and 1.7%. The combined 8.1% will still stay at fifth and far from United, which holds 16% shares.

    Source: US Bureau of Transportation

    Another difference is that the business models of Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines, or at least in terms of service, are not as different as they are between JetBlue and Spirit. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of opposition from either shareholders or passengers.

    At this point, it seems like there won’t be as many barriers for Alaska and Hawaiian compared to the earlier blocked merger. However, they still need to be careful about regulatory requirements, financial implications, and other issues for the merger to go through.

    SEE MORE ASCEND CONSULTANCY POSTS. LEARN MORE ABOUT Cirium Fleets Analyzer. OR FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US.

  • Iberia Express Wins Cirium On-Time Performance Award

    March 12, 2024, Tenerife, Spain – Cirium, the global leader in aviation analytics, is thrilled to present the On-Time Performance (OTP) Award for European airlines to Iberia Express. Taking place on March 12, 2024, this prestigious ceremony recognized the unwavering dedication to on-time performance demonstrated by the entire crew at Iberia Express in 2023.

    Mike Malik, Chief Marketing Officer for Cirium presented the award to Carlos Gomez Suárez, Chief Executive Officer, Iberia Express.  An award was also presented to Iberia Airlines for their achievement as a second-place winner among European airlines in the 2023 On-Time Performance Review.  Gonzalo Salinas Pereira, Director for Operations Control Center at Iberia received the award on behalf of the entire staff.

    Also in attendance at the Tenerife North Airport were Francisco Javier Osman Rodriguez, Tenerife Airport Director, Miguel Angel Rodriguez, Canary Islands Tourism Representative, and 12 members of the Iberia Express front-line crew. 

    Mike Malik, CMO, Cirium, presents the award to Carlos Gomez Suarez, CEO of Iberia Express.

    As a trusted source of aviation industry information and analytics, Cirium is proud to present this award honoring the achievements of Iberia Express while underscoring the critical importance of on-time performance in enhancing passenger satisfaction, operational efficiency, and the overall success of the airline industry.

    “At Iberia Express, we strive to maintain ambitious standards of efficiency and excellence in our operations to provide the best experience to our customers on each flight. This achievement is a source of pride for us because it serves as a testament to the commitment and dedication of the entire Iberia Express team,” said Carlos Gómez Suarez, CEO of Iberia Express, during the event.

    “Iberia Express’s performance is notable in 2023 especially when you consider its 10% capacity growth for its 2023/2024 winter schedule, compared to 2022.  It’s important to note that Iberia Express has performed well for many years, in fact, it has been a top performer and won an OTP award 9 times in the past.  But in 2023, Iberia Express has truly set a high bar, the Most On-Time European airline with an OTP rate of 84.58%.  A heartfelt congratulations to everyone at Iberia Express, Mr. Suarez, and the team.” – Mike Malik, CMO, Cirium.

    Cirium presented the 2nd Place Award to the Iberia Airlines operations team

    In Cirium’s award analysis, an on-time flight is defined as a flight that arrives within 15 minutes of the scheduled gate arrival. For an airport, it is defined as departing within 15 minutes of its scheduled departure.

    About Iberia Express

    Iberia Express is part of the Iberia Group, the leading low-cost airline at Madrid Airport and on routes to the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands. It offers short and medium-haul routes to feed Iberia’s long-haul network and to efficiently compete in the low-cost airline segment. Iberia Express operates a very efficient fleet of 25 aircraft and has developed a hybrid business model that includes connecting flights and Business Class service on all its planes. For five consecutive years (2014-2018), it was the most punctual low-cost airline in the world. In 2022, it was the most punctual low-cost airline in Europe, and in 2023, it was the most punctual airline in Europe and the fifth most punctual low-cost airline in the world, according to Cirium.

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

    Report highlights

    • Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running 
    • Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category 
    • Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors 
    • Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award 
    • Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
    DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT

  • 737-800 Freighter Conversions; Exuberance Abating?

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Chris Seymore aviation market analysis
    Chris Seymore aviation market analysis

    Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Cargo conversions of the Boeing 737-800 have been a success story since the first aircraft was modified in November 2017, as the fleet approaches 250 aircraft in the second quarter of 2024. Yet there are concerns that there is now some oversupply emerging. This may be borne out by the fact that 45 aircraft are currently parked.

    737-800 Annual Cargo Conversions 2017-2023

    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

    The number of aircraft converted annually has steadily increased, with a new peak of 72 aircraft modified during 2023. There are three programmes available, from Boeing, Aeronautical Engineers (AEI) and IAI-Bedek. Boeing’s -800BCF has proven to be the most popular, accounting for almost two thirds of conversions, followed by AEI at 27% and IAI with just 7%. Three quarters of aircraft have been converted at MROs in China, notably in Jinan, Shanghai and Guangzhou.

    The -800 freighter is now in service with 62 operators in 38 countries, notably in Europe, China and the rest of Asia-Pacific. It will soon surpass the combined conversions of the predecessor 737-300/400SF; the extra pallet and 10% more volume than the -400SF has made the -800 a popular successor. Yet three quarters of conversions have actually been for growth rather than replacement, mainly to cater for expanding e-commerce demand.

    Operating lessors have largely driven the conversion market, accounting for almost 80% of business to date.

    Direct conversion orders by airlines/integrators have been limited, with ASL Group, China Postal and DHL the largest customers.

    The popularity of the conversion with lessors is evidenced by some thirty different entities modifying their aircraft. AerCap leads with a quarter of conversions to date, followed by BBAM at 10%.

    Driving the increase in conversions, especially in 2021-22 was the availability of passenger feedstock aircraft as the market struggled to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Surplus mid-life+ aircraft, typically after two leases, had conversion as an attractive option to extend their useful life. The average age at conversion has been 19 years in the past two years and across all conversions the ages have ranged between 10 and 25 years.

    But this scenario has now shifted, as airlines are struggling to add passenger capacity due to delays in getting new aircraft, due to supply-chain problems and the ongoing Max issues.

    Thus lessors are seeing much more activity in the passenger market, with lease extensions and being able to quickly place aircraft coming off lease. AEI noted late last year that it was seeing some conversion slot deferrals and indeed converted fewer -800 aircraft in 2023 than a year prior.

    However, a slowdown in conversions may not be such bad news for supply and demand, as almost 20% of the converted fleet is parked.

    Of the 45 currently parked, six can be effectively excluded as they are in Russia. Of the remaining 39, 11 are with airlines or integrators and most are yet to enter service post conversion. This leaves 28 lessor aircraft, of which 15 have been placed with lessees but are yet to enter service. Some of these were converted as long ago as mid-2022, indicative of the issues some lessors have had in placement. Thus just 13 are with lessors and have no future lessee yet identified; one of which was converted 15 months ago, so there is certainly some surplus of supply.

    This softening of demand has driven the Current Market Lease Rate down in the past three months, albeit they still remain close to the levels enjoyed in 2018/2019, as can be seen in the chart using data from our new Value Trends module.

    737-800 Freighter Market Lease Rate Trend

    Source: Ascend Value Trends; for 12-year old aircraft; mid year and current 2024

    Announced conversion orders halved last year to 34, but the backlog remains robust at around 120. The number converted in 2024 looks set to be lower than 2023, driven by the aforementioned feedstock issues, but the fleet is forecast to ultimately double, and conversions to continue into the 2030s.

    There remains the opportunity of significant replacement of over 200 737NGs and competition is limited. The rival A320 conversion programmes have gained limited traction to date as most focus is on the larger A321.

    So yes, there is some short-term surplus of converted 737-800s and impact on lease rates, but the headline number of 45 parked does not tell the whole story.

    SEE MORE ASCEND CONSULTANCY POSTS. LEARN MORE ABOUT Cirium Fleets Analyzer. OR FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US.

  • Airbus and Boeing’s Single-Aisle Successor Story

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Max Kingsley-Jones, Head of Advisory, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Passers-by to the GE Aerospace stand at February’s Singapore air show will see a scale model of what CFM thinks future turbine powerplants might look like. The GE Aerospace/Safran joint venture’s RISE open-fan concept probably holds more than few clues as to the propulsion technology for a future Airbus single-aisle.

    At the Airbus annual press conference earlier this month, CEO Guillaume Faury provided the most detailed update yet around Toulouse’s thinking for an A320 family successor. He clarified that this study is for an all-new “SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) airplane” which is separate to the “ZEROe” project – a sub-100-seater with hydrogen propulsion.

    Faury said the Airbus future single-aisle would be a “short- to mid-range” family with service entry targeted for the second half of the 2030s “that will rely on burning 100% SAF”. He explained that Airbus wants to use it to enable the industry’s transition from less than 1% SAF usage today to something much closer to 100% by 2050: “That’s the plane that will be in service at 2050.”

    While likely engine technology for this prospective aircraft was not discussed, the CFM RISE project clearly provides one potential avenue for Airbus. CFM says the technology demonstrator will have 100% capability with alternative energy sources such as SAF and hydrogen. It will serve as “the foundation for the next-generation CFM engine that could be available by the mid-2030s”. With its open-fan architecture, RISE has a target to reduce fuel burn and carbon emissions by 20% over today’s engines.

    Airbus and CFM plan to start testing a RISE technology demonstrator on an A380 around two years from now.

    The planned development timescale for the CFM next-gen powerplant matches that of Airbus. And one of the last times Airbus tested an advanced engine concept – the Pratt & Whitney GTF in 2008 – it went on to power the re-engined A320neo family.

    Cirium’s latest 20-year fleet forecast includes an assessment of the potential delivery stream for next generation single-aisles from Airbus and Boeing. We estimate a potential market for around 8,500 deliveries in the seven years from 2036, as production of today’s A320neo and 737 Max families will begin to decline. We expect the market to be split approximately 50/50 between the two protagonists.

    We can only speculate on the likely timing and make-up of seat sizes within these next-gen programmes. But Boeing’s current under-performance against Airbus in the single-aisle sector creates a more urgent need for a replacement, so our hypothesis is that Seattle would come to market slightly earlier.

    The initial offering could be a 180-seater from 2036, with smaller 150-seat and 125-seat versions to follow.

    Airbus could be around a year behind Boeing, bringing a family of 150-seat and 180-seat single-aisle successors from around 2037. A320neo and 737 Max family deliveries could conclude towards the end of the 2030s.

    Programme development is likely to take at least five or six years from go-ahead to the service-entry goal. So to meet the service-entry timeline OEMs would need to target securing commitments and a launch decision from the end of this decade at the latest. But the key pacing item – as ever – will be the progress of powerplant development and the timeframe engine OEMs set to achieve their performance and – crucially – durability goals.

    SEE MORE ASCEND CONSULTANCY POSTS. LEARN MORE ABOUT Cirium Fleet Forecast. OR FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US.

  • Cirium Presents 2023 On-Time Performance Awards to MSP Airport

    MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL — Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP) wrapped up 2023 with a rare double win in Cirium’s 2023 On-Time Performance Review, garnering the top global airport and large airport awards.

    Minneapolis-St.Paul International Airport

    Cirium presented the awards Tuesday to Metropolitan Airports Commission Executive Director/C.E.O., Brian Ryks and Chair Rick King during a ceremony at MSP that included hundreds of airport employees.

    “These awards highlight the incredible teams and employees at the MAC who support our airline partners in delivering the best on-time performance rates while minimizing passenger disruptions throughout the year,” Ryks said. “Last winter challenged our region with heavy and frequent snowstorms, yet our teams showed their dedication keeping equipment, facilities and the MSP airfield in prime condition to achieve the best possible operational capabilities that contributed to achieving this rare industry honor.”

    Now in its 15th year, the Cirium On-Time Performance program monitors global airline and airport operational performance through extensive and unbiased data, derived from over 600 real-time information sources. 

    MSP is only the second North American airport to win a Cirium global award following Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA) in 2011.

    MSP’s 2023 global on-time departure rate of 84.44% was calculated across 289,817 flights, ahead of the other top five finishers: Rajiv Gandhi International Airport (India), Kempegowda International Airport (India), El Dorado International Airport (Colombia), and Salt Lake City International Airport (U.S.). “On-time performance is a critical way we deliver on MAC’s purpose: providing exceptional airport experiences so Minnesota thrives,” King said.

    “These awards affirm the trust and expectations that MSP has earned over many years in helping millions of people travel easily and efficiently across the globe to strengthen regional business connections and support personal and leisure travel.”

    Rick King, Chairman at MSP

    “Cirium’s Annual On-Time Performance Review brings to light the exceptional strides we’re seeing across the global aviation sector. The 2023 results speak volumes about how our airports are not just meeting but surpassing expectations in efficiency, especially as we witness a resurgence in demand,” said Cirium Chief Marketing Officer Mike Malik.

    “The team at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport have really set the bar high, leading the pack in both the global and large airport categories. Cirium extends our deepest congratulations to the team at MSP for their dedication and outstanding commitment to excellence.”

    In Cirium’s 2023 airline rankings, MSP’s hub carrier Delta Air Lines was honored with the Platinum Award for the third year running as the top global performer. Delta also topped the rankings for most on-time airline in North America.

    In Cirium’s award analysis, an on-time flight is defined as a flight that arrives within 15 minutes of the scheduled gate arrival. For an airport, it is defined as departing within 15 minutes of its scheduled departure.

    About The Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC)
    The Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC) owns and operates one of the nation’s largest airport systems, including Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) and six general aviation airports. The MAC’s airports connect the region to the world and showcase Minnesota’s extraordinary culture to millions of passengers from around the globe who arrive or depart through MAC airports each year. Though a public corporation of the state of Minnesota, the organization is not funded by income or property taxes. Instead, the MAC’s operations are funded by rents and fees generated by users of its airports. For more information, visit www.metroairports.org.

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

    Report highlights

    • Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running 
    • Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category 
    • Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors 
    • Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award 
    • Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
    DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT

  • Low-cost Carrier Performance: Key to High Aircraft Utilization

    Jeremy Bowen, Chief Executive Officer, Cirium

    When low-cost carriers reach their peak, they not only offer customers affordable fares but also achieve high operating margins. In fact, they often rank among the top performers in the airline industry.

    On-time performance directly correlates with customer satisfaction and efficient aircraft utilization, which are the core strengths of low-cost airlines.

    Indeed, the on-time performance of the top three Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) not only matches but often exceeds that of many traditional legacy airlines.

    Timeliness is crucial for a business model that relies on maximizing aircraft utilization and minimizing costly flight delays that have a direct impact on operating costs.

    This year, Cirium is pleased to report that the South African carrier, Safair (FA), led the charge for all low-cost carriers globally in 2023 with 92.36% of their 55,444 flight operations arriving on time, edging 2nd place Azul (AD) operating 310,972 flights with an OTP arrival of 85.51% and Hong Kong Express (UD) with an OTP arrival of 85.23% on 23,761 flights.

    Cirium congratulates Safair for this feat, as well as honorable mention to Azul and Hong Kong Express. After all — low-cost carriers fly in the same space as the world’s largest carriers, with all of the same challenges.

    Cirium Safair

    Report highlights

    • Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running 
    • Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category 
    • Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors 
    • Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award 
    • Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
    DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT

  • Medium-Sized Airports Excel in On-Time Departures

    JIm Hetzel Director of Product Marketing
    JIm Hetzel Director of Product Marketing

    Jim Hetzel, Director of Product Marketing, Cirium

    In the bustling world of aviation, medium-sized airports often find themselves in a unique position – big enough to serve a significant volume of passengers, yet small enough to avoid some of the logistical nightmares that come with mega-airport status. Today, we’re shining a spotlight on these middleweight champions, particularly those that have demonstrated exceptional performance in on-time departures throughout 2023, serving between 15,000,000 and 25,000,000 travelers annually worldwide.

    Our annual report highlights the top 20 airports worldwide in this category. The data clearly shows that there are several medium-sized airport hubs that excel in departure on-time performance.

    Leading the pack and taking the #1 ranking is Osaka International Airport (ITM), the regional gateway for Japan’s Kansai region, boasting a departure performance of 90.71% on over 130,000 flights for the year.

    Deserving of honorable mention, is Tocumen International Airport (PTY) in Panama, a gateway airport to the Americas, with a departure OTP of 90.51% on over 121,000 flights. Also ranking high is Jorge Chavez International Airport (LIM) in Lima, Peru, with a departure OTP of 89.10% on over 150,000 flights.

    These top performers are accompanied by numerous other medium-sized airports that have demonstrated impressive on-time departure performance. Congratulations to Osaka International Airport for their exceptional performance!

    While ensuring on-time departures is crucial, it is equally important to adopt a comprehensive approach to airport management. The exemplary performance of medium-sized airports in 2023 has demonstrated that success stems from a combination of robust infrastructure, strategic partnerships, economic growth, and a culture of innovation. This serves as a valuable lesson for airports of all sizes, emphasizing the significance of embracing these principles.

    Report highlights

    • Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running 
    • Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category 
    • Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors 
    • Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award 
    • Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
    DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT

  • Timely Performance for Copa Airlines

    Jay Morgan, Director, Professional Data Services, Cirium

    In a very demanding year Copa Airlines soared to the top of our on-time rankings.

    Copa operated at a very high level of on-time performance, with 89.46% of its flights arriving on time, surpassing avianca (85.73%) and last year’s winner Azul (85.51%). In addition, Copa achieved significant reduction in cancellations (63%) year over year—a noteworthy improvement in the passenger experience.

    In 2023 LATAM (84.07%) recorded over 494,000 flights — more than double the number of the other carriers in the top nine, apart from Azul that flew approximately 303,000 flights.

    Latin America continued to see growth in operations throughout 2023. Increased demand for domestic and international travel, cargo, plus the addition of Aerus and Mexicana de Aviacion set the stage for newly opened routes and significant new aircraft orders and leases.

    Scheduled Latin American commercial passenger flights increased by 16% year over year. The top carriers in the region operated at 117% of their pre-pandemic levels and are fully expected to continue to see growth in 2024.

    These are very encouraging statistics overall, in a year that saw the restructuring of three major Latin American carriers. These airlines added new routes to their schedules and modernized their fleets demonstrating that they are keeping pace with a very strong post-COVID recovery.

    COPA Airlines

    Report highlights

    • Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running 
    • Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category 
    • Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors 
    • Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award 
    • Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
    DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT

  • ¡Bien Hecho, Ecuador! Small Airport On Time Performance Winners

    Mike Arnot, Juliett Alpha Media

    Mariscal Sucre International Airport had the best operational performance in 2023 among the world’s small airports. Located near Quito, Ecuador, the airport is referred to as Tababela, and is relatively new — it opened in 2012. It’s Ecuador’s largest airport. The two largest carriers there are Avianca and LATAM, each flying around 1M seats in 2023, with Avianca flying around 43% more seats from there since 2019.

    Mariscal Sucre beat out Chubu Centrair, the Japanese single runway operation just outside of Nagoya, Japan. ANA is the largest carrier there, whose strong on-time performance factors into both that carrier and this airport’s excellence.

    2023’s results are an excellent result for these Ecuadorian airports.

    The top three small airports are rounded out by José Joaquín de Olmedo International Airport, serving Guayaquil, Ecuador, and Ecuador’s second largest airport, after Mariscal Sucre. 2023’s results are an excellent result for these Ecuadorian airports. Cirium categorizes airports by percentile, and a small airport serves between the 25th and 50th percentile by total flights served in a month, with an actual gate departure coverage 80% or better.

    Report highlights

    • Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running 
    • Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category 
    • Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors 
    • Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award 
    • Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
    DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT