Contact Us

Category: Industry

  • Future Flight: Transforming Travel with Aviation Analytics

    After a period of significant disruption, global travel demand has not only returned but is also setting a new trajectory. Growth is now driven by resilient structural demand, evolving passenger expectations, and ongoing supply-side pressures. For operators, the imperative is clear: data-driven strategies are essential to achieve operational efficiency, enhance future readiness, and improve the passenger journey in a rapidly shifting market. 

    The Cirium webinar, Future Flight: Shaping Traveler Experiences with Aviation Analytics, explored forces shaping commercial aviation as the industry approaches 2026. Drawing on insights from panelists representing various aviation sectors and the latest aviation data, the session covered the global demand outlook, operational responses to emerging pressures, and the expanding role of aviation analytics in strengthening airport resilience and enhancing the passenger experience.  

    The global travel outlook: a new trajectory 

    The outlook for global air travel has shifted as the industry moves beyond pandemic recovery. Global revenue passenger-kilometers (RPKs) have surpassed 2019 levels, reflecting strong demand. However, the industry still trails its pre-covid growth trajectory, representing about four years of lost progress.  

    The rapid growth seen after borders reopened has eased, and demand is being driven by fundamental market forces than by deferred travel. In this climate,  commercial aviation is forging a distinctly new path.  

    An uneven recovery landscape 

    Joanna Lu from Cirium Ascend Consultancy presented 2026 Travel Market: Robust demand in a constrained operating environment 


    While there is a macro picture of strong growth, the patterns remain uneven between markets.  

    Capacity on transatlantic and Europe–Asia routes has surpassed pre-pandemic benchmarks, while in contrast, transpacific traffic and China’s international network still lag compared to 2019 levels. This divergence highlights the impact of persistent structural factors, such as strategic fleet deployment, changing traveler behavior, and ongoing geopolitical challenges.  

    The evolving traveler: new demands and behaviors 

    Demand drivers are shifting. Surveys consistently highlight a growing emphasis on unique travel experiences, even as inflation acts as a headwind for some travelers. Moreover, flexible and hybrid work patterns continue to blur the line between leisure and business trips, creating more diverse travel profiles and shifting travel seasonality.  

    Alongside these behavioral shifts, the rise of Asia’s expanding middle class—particularly in India and Southeast Asia—is fueling demand growth. Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) travel remains a key driver, offering a resilient source of underlying traffic as other segments fluctuate. Combined with the ongoing trend toward short-haul regional journeys, these factors are prompting airlines and airports to revisit network structures and tailor their offerings to better match these evolving passenger expectations.  

    The operational imperative: reliability in an era of growth 

    As network capacity expands to meet renewed demand, maintaining operational reliability continues to be a key challenge. Forecasts for the first quarter of 2026 indicate a 5% increase in capacity across Asia, equating to about 31 million additional passengers. 

    While this demonstrates strong market momentum, it places more pressure on infrastructure, processes, and resources that are already under strain.  

    Leading the panel discussion was Ellis Taylor of Cirium joined by colleague Hamsin Nashrudin, and guest speakers Anthony Cicuttini from Brisbane Airport and Nate Srinath from Inxee.


    Despite network expansion continuing reliability remains a central concern. Cirium data shows that flight cancellation rates in 2025 remain above the pre-pandemic baseline of roughly 1–1.5%. Even a small uptick results in tens of thousands of additional monthly cancellations, directly affecting passenger experience and operational stability. As the sector scales up, reinforcing reliability shifts from operational concern to a strategic priority – and a key competitive advantage.  

    Ongoing supply chain challenges and aircraft delivery delays are set to further constrain available fleet growth, despite infrastructure investments. The recent addition of airports in markets such as Navi Mumbai and Noida adds needed capacity, but these projects must be matched with adequate aircraft resources and integrated networks to realize their full benefits. 

    Driving operational efficiency in aviation 

    Airports are responding to capacity and reliability pressures by leveraging advanced analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) to streamline operations, alongside strategic infrastructure enhancements.  

    The emphasis is on maximizing efficiency from existing assets, while new facilities like Navi Mumbai and Noida expand capacity. However, technology and infrastructure must advance together to achieve measurable improvements in performance.  

    From docking systems to intelligent hubs 

    A clear example of this transition is the evolution of Visual Docking Guidance Systems (VDGS). Once limited to basic stand guidance, next-generation VDGS platforms now serve as intelligent operational nodes. AI enables these systems to go beyond traditional roles by automating billing with precise arrival timestamps and reducing revenue discrepancies from manual reporting. This digital transformation helps resolve longstanding operational inefficiencies and lays a foundation for broader process innovation.  

    Critically, these intelligent platforms are transforming airport turnaround performance by capturing granular timestamps for each step of the process, creating robust datasets for targeted operational analysis—from chocks-on and aerobridge placement to passenger transfer, refueling, and baggage movement. Ready access to these detailed metrics empowers teams to identify bottlenecks and inefficiencies, supporting continuous improvement in processes and asset utilization.  

    Enhancing safety and efficiency 

    AI-enabled systems also play a crucial role in enhancing airside safety. The latest smart VDGS platforms can automatically identify aircraft types and verify wingtip clearance during docking, reducing collision risk and protecting operational integrity. By streamlining processes and improving reliability, these technologies strengthen the resilience of the airport environment.  

    Brisbane Airport: a case study in data-driven strategy 

    With traffic projected to reach 35 million passengers over the next decade, Brisbane Airport (BNE) uses Cirium’s FM Traffic and SRS Analyzer to conduct data-driven assessments that allow it to proactively manage its relationships with airlines, and make infrastructure investment decisions. 

    Using Cirium’s FM Traffic and SRS Analyser, BNE compares individual routes across an airline’s portfolio and identify opportunities for new services or increased frequency by combining real-time passenger flow with detailed schedules. 

    This analytical approach reshapes how BNE develops airline partnerships. Rather than relying on anecdotal feedback, the airport enables collaborative, evidence-based discussions on network performance and shared opportunities. They effectively identify key drivers and co-develop actionable strategies—whether refining capacity allocation or launching targeted joint marketing campaigns. 

    Building the Future of Air Travel

    Successfully navigating this landscape requires adopting integrated, intelligence-led operational models. Aviation analytics now underpin decision-making across key areas—demand forecasting, network optimization, turnaround management, and safety protocols. Embedding data-driven insights into strategy and execution enables stakeholders to respond proactively to changing conditions, mitigate disruptions, and chart a path toward resilient, efficient, and effective operations.  

    In the evolving landscape of commercial aviation, organizations that put analytics at the core of their operations are best positioned for long-term success. The future of air travel will be defined not just by volume, but by how intelligently and efficiently each journey is enabled.   

    Airports and airlines that leverage real-time intelligence and predictive analytics drive operational excellence, strengthen network resilience, and consistently deliver a reliable, seamless passenger experience.

    Watch the Webinar on Demand 

    The full webinar is now available on demand, along with the presentation deck. Watch it here.  

  • Air cargo in 2025: Balancing growth with trade recalibration

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Sofia Zoidou, Senior Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Amid the continued geopolitical conflict and a dramatic escalation of US tariffs, 2025 has been a rollercoaster for global trade.

    According to the WTO-IMF tariff tracker, the average tariff rate on US global imports rose seven-fold during 2025, climbing from 2.6% in January to 19.2% in early November. As the USA escalated tariffs for imports from all its major trading partners (Chart 1), this move has affected over $2.7 trillion of trade value so far.

    US tariffs on Chinese goods have currently settled at an average 41.5%, following a temporary truce via the trade deal reached in early November. This was after tariffs on China ballooned from an average 20% at the start of the year to a staggering 143% at the peak of the two nations’ trade confrontations in April.

    Meanwhile, US tariffs on imports from India, the fastest growing nation in terms of real GDP according to the IMF, rose from 3.4% in January to 47.4% in November, with no trade deal yet at hand (although, reportedly, significant progress has been made in December).

    The introduction of import tariffs by the world’s biggest economy as an international trade deterrent should have in theory painted a bleak picture for the world’s economic outlook. Yet, the impact has been surprisingly more subdued than originally expected – so far.

    According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), US real GDP contracted by 0.6% in Q1 2025 before rebounding at 3.8% in Q2 (annualised figures as per BEA methodology; Q3 figures expected later in December), whilst data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China suggests the Chinese economy grew by 4% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, which is on par with the same period last year. Compared with previous years, this bolsters the argument of a structural GDP growth deceleration in China, as opposed to a tariff-ensuing slow-down.

    Looking forward, the IMF World Economic Outlook projects the world’s real GDP will continue to grow at a rate of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, i.e. largely in line with 2024 (3.3%), despite the reasonably anticipated slow-down in the USA (2% US GDP growth projected for 2025 and 2.1% forecast for 2026 vs. actual 2.8% in 2024).

    On this footing, global air cargo has also held up. Cargo tonne kilometres (CTKs) were up annually by 3.3% year-to-date (Jan-Oct), according to IATA’s Global Outlook for Air Transport, just published in December. IATA now estimates the year for global air cargo will close at 3.1% growth, beating its earlier forecast of just 0.7% for 2025.

    Key driver of acceleration in the air cargo market has been the expansion of the Asia-Pacific to Europe flows, with CTKs on this corridor in January-October up by 10.6% year-on-year. However, the fact that among Europe’s international routes, only those with Asia and North America (+7.1%) grew year-on-year, suggests a meaningful part of this growth may be due to exporters’ repositioning supply chains and rerouting cargo flows to circumvent tariffs.

    In contrast, CTKs between Asia-Pacific and North America declined for the sixth consecutive month in October, leading to 1.2% expected contraction for North America in 2025, as per IATA. In addition to the tariffs, the USA’s lifting of the “de minimis exemption” for imports of small value Chinese packaged goods (worth $800 or less) in May has contributed to this decline.

    Cirium’s tracked utilisation data for cargo flights confirms these trends (Chart 2; note all-cargo flights represent about half of global CTKs, the remaining captured in passenger jet belly capacity). In the first nine months of 2025, the number of cargo flights from China to Europe rose by 41% year-on-year, with flights from Europe to China also up by 52%. Total flights from the rest of Asia-Pacific to Europe also increased by a significant 23%. Whilst daily flights from China to North America have returned to growth after the summer months, flights from other Asia-Pacific destinations (excluding China) into North America remain contracted by 4% year-to-date and not yet showing signs of recovery, which in turn signifies capacity removal from the route.

    Notwithstanding the resilience in the air-cargo markets amidst the uncertainty in 2025, it remains to be seen how much of the growth represents new and sustainable organic demand, and if the levels of rerouting and trade flow recalibration observed this year, offsetting some of the tariffs’ impact, will permanently hold true.

    With the Euro area’s GDP growth projection at a mere 1.2% in 2025 as per the IMF, i.e., well below its average forecast of +1.6% for advanced economies, it is debatable how much European demand can propel air-cargo growth going forward.

    Despite air cargo typically transporting high-value time-sensitive goods, such as pharmaceuticals and high-tech components, part of Asia to Europe cargo also comprises retail e-commerce purchases. Specifically for low-value-goods’ packages entering the EU, of which more than 90% comes from China, the estimated trade value has more than doubled to $19.1bn in the two years to 2024, having now reached $20.5bn in the first nine months of 2025, Reuters reports.  

    However, in view of concerns around health and safety regulation compliance, and the competitive ramifications for the European industries, from November 2026 or earlier, the European Commission plans to introduce new customs and handling fees on low-value packages – a development likely to deplete the air cargo volumes from Asia to Europe to some degree.

    Moreover, the USA’s extension of the “de minimis exemption” removal to small value parcel shipments from all countries, in addition to China, since August is likely to further squeeze US air cargo volumes going forward.

    Lastly, following the ceasefire in the Middle East, most major container-shipping carriers are now resuming Red Sea/Suez Canal transits, after detours added around 10 extra days on their Asia-Europe voyage, which accounts for approximately 10% of global container volumes (East to West is 30-40%). On this basis, and in view of the continuing decline of shipping freight rates, it is likely any benefit from substitution by air cargo will subside in the forthcoming months. For these reasons, and with IATA’s outlook suggesting CTK growth slowing to 2.6% year-on-year in 2026, the air cargo market’s performance is one to closely watch, as it balances between growing demand and the effects of regulatory and geopolitical developments.

  • Cirium Data Powers Perk’s Next-Gen Flight Emissions Tracking

    London, 04 December, 2025: Cirium, the global leader in aviation analytics, has announced a major step forward in sustainable travel, as it signs a landmark deal with Perk, the intelligent platform for unified travel and spend management.

    Through this agreement, Perk’s customers now benefit from Cirium’s advanced flight emissions data – delivered via EmeraldSky, Cirium’s revolutionary flight emissions tracking tool. It enhances visibility into the environmental impact of flight choices, helping businesses and travelers make smarter, sustainability-led decisions. 

    For the first time Cirium’s flight-specific emissions data is marking a major leap forward for Corporate travel. The solution delivers unrivalled precision in CO₂ tracking, thanks to Cirium’s fusion of comprehensive flight data, science-led methodology, and real-time analytics. 

    Perk, one of the world’s fastest-growing travel management platforms, is now leveraging Cirium’s forecast and flown emissions insights to provide travelers and businesses with accurate, transparent CO₂ estimates at point of search. Post travel, these insights feed into Perk’s intelligent reporting suite, supporting sustainability tracking and regulatory compliance for the 10,000 companies the platform supports worldwide. This integration strengthens Perk’s position as the go-to platform for companies aiming to reduce business travel emissions responsibly and at scale.

    JEREMY-BOWEN Cirium
    JEREMY-BOWEN Cirium

    Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO, said: “Accurate flight emissions data is essential to monitor the travel industry’s path to reach sustainability goals, and Cirium is proud to be the trusted source behind one of the most widely used corporate travel platforms. This partnership with Perk reflects the growing demand for credible, science-based data for the flight portion of the travel experience, and thanks to EmeraldSky, Cirium can now provide this to customers across the world who prioritize sustainability when booking flights and choosing their routing.”

    Jean-Christophe Taunay-Bucalo, Perk President and Chief Operating Officer, said: “We’re thrilled to partner with Cirium to bring trusted, high-quality flight emissions data into Perk. CO₂ tracking is essential, but for most teams it’s been a manual, time-consuming task. By combining Cirium’s trusted data with Perk’s intelligent platform, businesses can eliminate that repetitive manual work and move beyond estimates to automated, reliable insights that support compliance and meaningful reductions.”

    This builds on Cirium’s long-standing relationship with Perk, and follows the Group’s 2025 acquisition of AmTrav, an existing Cirium customer, which focuses on the US market.

    Launched in 2024, Cirium’s EmeraldSky is an innovative platform, powered by a revolutionary methodology. It analyzes each flight’s specific aircraft type and configurations, combined with real-time operational data and flight conditions, ensuring unparalleled accuracy and reliability in emission tracking. As businesses face increasing pressure to reduce emissions, Cirium offers a future-proof solution for carbon accountability – empowering companies to meet internal targets while providing travelers with transparency and choice.

    EmeraldSky seamlessly integrates Cirium’s comprehensive data, advanced analytics, and data science techniques to achieve unmatched precision in measuring both forecast and flown CO₂ flight emissions.

    Unlike traditional carbon calculators that depend on broad estimates and generic assumptions – such as using  great circle distance instead of actual flown flight paths, and ignoring variables like wind speed, direction, and actual airframe and engine maintenance records – EmeraldSky provides emissions results based on the seat in a specific class of service and sets a new standard in aircraft emissions measurement.  

    To learn more about Cirium’s comprehensive aviation analytics and detailed insights, visit www.cirium.com.

    For Cirium media inquiries, please contact:
    media@cirium.com

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

    About Perk
    Perk (formerly TravelPerk) is the intelligent platform for travel and spend management, built to eliminate the hidden, manual tasks that drain productivity and morale – Perk calls these ‘Shadow Work’. By automating travel bookings, expenses and invoice processing, the platform gives teams back time to focus on real work, with real impact. Trusted by more than 10,000 companies worldwide – including Wise, On Running, Breitling and Fabletics  – Perk is tackling the 7 hours of lost productivity per employee each week, a $1.7 trillion problem revealed in The Cost of Shadow Work report. Founded in 2015, the global company combines innovation, control, and simplicity to transform how businesses work today and in the future. Perk’s mission is to power real work by removing the invisible tasks that slow teams down.

    Visit www.perk.com for more information.

  • WestJet’s Climb to the Top: What It Really Takes to Lead North America in On-Time Performance

    Mike Malik, Chief Marketing Officer, Cirium

    I’ll be honest—when I saw WestJet’s October numbers come across my desk, I had one thought: Good grief, this is fantastic. 84.66% on-time performance. Number one in North America. Not just good—the best.

    Here’s what makes that achievement so impressive: just over a year ago, WestJet was posting around 71% on-time arrivals across nearly 192,000 flights. That put them near the bottom of major North American carriers—a tough place to be when your customers, your employees, and your investors are all watching the same scorecards.

    Every month, I review on-time performance results with our committee and board. We see incremental improvements, seasonal dips, weather recoveries—the usual rhythm of airline operations. But October 2025 wasn’t usual. This was different. We all felt it was a big deal, and I don’t think most people truly understand what it takes to post these kinds of numbers.

    What Most People Don’t See

    When passengers see an 84% on-time rate, they might think: “Pretty good odds I won’t be delayed.” And they’re right—but they’re missing the real story.

    What that number actually represents is thousands of people doing hundreds of things right, repeatedly, under pressure. It’s gate agents, dispatchers, maintenance crews, pilots, and operations centers all executing with precision. It’s schedules built with discipline. It’s recovery plans that actually work when things go sideways.

    You don’t get to 84.66% OTP by hoping for good weather. You get there through relentless operational focus and a culture that treats reliability as non-negotiable.

    Leadership That Gives Credit Where It’s Due

    I’ve met a lot of airline CEOs over the years. Some are brilliant strategists. Others are financial experts. A few are operations specialists.

    Alexis von Hoensbroech, who became WestJet’s CEO in February 2022, is something different—and refreshingly so. When I met him at a conference, what struck me wasn’t just his impressive background (a physics PhD from the Max Planck Institute, years at Boston Consulting Group, sixteen-plus years in senior roles at Lufthansa Group including CEO and CFO of Austrian Airlines). It was how genuinely warm and personable he was—surprisingly so for a CEO with those credentials.

    More importantly, when he talks about WestJet’s operational progress, he consistently gives credit to the teams doing the work. That kind of humility from a leader with his accomplishments says a lot about how he’s building the airline’s culture.

    His approach appears to focus on two principles: shared accountability across the operation, and schedule discipline as the foundation of everything else. Those aren’t just words at WestJet—they’re visible in the month-over-month data.

    Alexis von Hoensbroech CEO, WestJet

    Alexis von Hoensbroech
    CEO, WestJet

    Building the Foundation

    WestJet’s network today spans major hubs in Calgary, Toronto Pearson, and Vancouver, with extensive transborder and leisure flying. That’s a complex operation—the kind that exposes any weakness in your processes.

    The airline is also midway through significant fleet modernization. In 2025, WestJet announced an order for 67 Boeing aircraft—60 737-10 MAX jets and 7 787-9 Dreamliners, with deliveries through 2034. Modern fleets don’t guarantee operational excellence, but they certainly help create the conditions for it.

    September’s numbers already showed momentum—roughly 84.5% OTP, putting WestJet among the month’s top performers. October confirmed it wasn’t a fluke.

    Why This Matters

    Airlines around the world take on-time performance seriously, and they should. It affects brand reputation, investor confidence, and employee morale. When I see results like WestJet’s, it makes me proud that Cirium’s data plays a role in helping airlines benchmark and improve.

    But more than that, I genuinely want to see the industry succeed. Every carrier doing well lifts the entire sector. And when an airline posts numbers like this—especially after climbing from a challenging baseline—it proves something important:

    You can fix an airline. It takes clear leadership, operational discipline, fleet investment, and teams committed to execution. It doesn’t happen quickly, and it doesn’t happen by chance. But it can be done.

    What Comes Next

    The coming months will tell us whether October represents WestJet’s new normal or an early chapter in a longer story. Either way, this moment matters.

    It’s proof that when airlines focus on the fundamentals—schedule integrity, operational coordination, and accountability at every level—the results show up in the data. And when those results are sustained, everything changes: customer trust rebuilds, brand strength returns, and business resilience grows.

    Congratulations to Alexis and the entire WestJet team. October 2025 will be remembered as the month you reached the top of North American on-time performance.

    And from where I sit, that’s fantastic news for everyone.

  • Number of UK domestic flights halves in the last 20 years

    Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium reveals that the number of domestic UK flights has more than halved over the past 20 years, with 214,796 flights scheduled throughout 2025, compared to a peak in 2006 of 454,375 flights.

    This equates to almost 240,000 fewer flights scheduled in 2025 than 2006, amounting to an average daily reduction of 657 flights across the UK.

    A combination of higher Air Passenger Duty tax, shifting environmental concerns and the ability for airlines to make greater profits from short-haul services beyond the UK have contributed to the decline.

    The reduction in domestic flights has impacted regional airports with several UK hubs closing their commercial operations over the past 20 years, including Doncaster Sheffield in 2022, Blackpool in 2014 and Plymouth in 2011.

    The demise of Flybe, once the UK’s largest domestic operator, during the pandemic in 2020 will also have affected the number of available flights. However, the decline was already prevalent prior to Flybe entering administration and a number of routes previously operated by the carrier have since been taken over by other airlines.

    2025 will see 74,125 fewer flights compared to pre-pandemic levels.

    The number of available seats has significantly decreased during the past 20 years, dropping 35% from 39.1 million in 2006 to 25.5 million seats in 2025. This represents a drop of 37,000 fewer passengers flying on internal flights each day within the UK. 

    More recently, flights have decreased since 2024, with almost a million fewer seats available for domestic UK travel this year.

    The general reduction of internal flights across the UK is driven by a change in customer demand and shifting strategy among airlines which have dropped domestic services following the doubling of Air Passenger Duty rates in 2007.

    Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO, said: “This reduction over the past two decades shows a staggering change in the way we travel throughout the UK. Passengers are looking at more sustainable and affordable ways to travel domestically, so airlines have responded by reducing their internal services and prioritising more popular destinations including Spain, France and Italy.”

    This substantial change in the way people travel throughout the UK coincides with a rise in rail travel, according to the Office of Rail and Road’s (ORR) Passenger rail usage statistics. The ORR has seen a 50% increase in rail travel from 1.15 billion passengers in 2005/6 to almost 1.73 billion in 2024/5.

    See the full dataset below, and further sustainability analysis is available using Cirium’s EmeraldSky tool:

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

  • Chinese ‘big three’ airlines’ nine-month gains: recovery in 2026?

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Yinan-Qin
    Yinan-Qin

    Team Perspective

    Yinan Qin, Senior Aviation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Following the release of their 2025 third-quarter financial reports, China’s “big three” airline groups (Air China, China Eastern and China Southern) have delivered a robust post-pandemic performance.

    All three carriers posted modest revenue growth and continued year-on-year improvements in operating profit, led by China Eastern, which recorded a 19.4% increase in operating income and a 32.5% rise in net profit compared with Q3 2024.

    On the leverage and liquidity side, all three airlines reported a decline in their net debt/EBIT ratios compared with the same quarter last year, coupled with an improved liquidity profile, except for Air China, which recorded massive debt repayments that outpaced the growth of cash flow generated from operating activities.

    Boosted by an exceptional Q3 performance and improving Q2 results, China’s “big three” delivered their first profitable nine-month’s financial result since the onset of the pandemic. This milestone was met with a positive market reaction, reflected in rising share prices.

    Chart 1: Chinese ‘big three’ airlines quarterly EBIT and EBIT margin (post 2024)

    Source: Airline Financials; Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    According to Cirium schedules data, although Chinese domestic market capacity shortly surpassed 2019 levels during Q3 2020 and Q1 2022, it consistently exceeded pre-pandemic levels starting in 2023. While the international market segment remains 20% below pre-pandemic levels at present, it has shown a moderate recovery trend since 2023. Supported by favourable travel and visa policies and an economy further emerging from the impact of the pandemic, both inbound and outbound passenger volumes have begun to climb.

    Chart 2: Chinese market air traffic capacity recovery (ASK, indexed to 2019)

    Source: Cirium schedules data
    Note: As of Nov 2025, Bi-directional traffic

    Benefitting from the large Chinese domestic market scale, Chinese airlines experienced an efficient capacity recovery during the post-pandemic period. Cirium’s schedules data shows that the capacity of the “big three” have largely outperformed their pre-pandemic capacity benchmarks, with ASKs exceeding 2019 levels as of 2023.

    Chart 3:  Chinese ‘big three’ airlines capacity (post-2018)

    Source: Cirium schedules data
    Note: Bi-directional traffic as of Nov 2025; excludes each group’s subsidiaries

    With their eyes on the big recovery potential of the international market and government policy support, all three major carriers have accelerated the restoration and expansion of international routes, with China Eastern standing out as a notable example.

    According to Cirium schedules data, during Q3 2025, China Eastern added a net 17 international routes on top of the 170 routes operated in Q3 2024, primarily focussing on European and South Asian market segments. Air China and China Southern also recorded net increases of 12 and 15 international routes in Q3 2025, compared with Q3 2024 respectively. China Eastern disclosed plans to continue increasing the flight frequencies on several routes connecting key cities in South Asia (Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok) during Q4 2025 and further expanding its international routes in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, China Southern announced its focus on boosting capacity on routes connecting Australia in 2026.

    Chart 4: New international routes launched by ‘big three’ in Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024

    Source: Cirium schedules data

    In addition to sustained growth in air travel demand and the successful strategy of expanding international market segments, wider profit margins were largely driven by precise cost-control measures implemented by the carriers, along with benefits from stable jet fuel prices and the appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar during the first three quarters of 2025. However, these factors represent short-term advantages and may not persist in the longer term. Continued depreciation or volatility of the yuan against the US dollar would heighten operational uncertainty, given that Chinese airlines’ primary currency exposure is to the US dollar.

    However, one issue became particularly concerning in 2025. Although traffic grew strongly in the first half of 2025, airlines saw only a modest improvement in passenger yields, largely due to intense market competition, commonly described as “involution”. This term refers to competition becoming excessively intense without creating additional value, resulting in diminishing returns for all market participants. In the aviation market, this refers to situations where Chinese carriers engage in aggressive fare undercutting to gain market share, often driving prices below sustainable levels.

    Industry experts have also recognised this issue and have begun addressing it through regulatory measures. In 2025, regulators summoned several Chinese airlines for closed-door meetings to address concerns over excessively low ticket prices. Authorities mandated that fares must not drop below CNY200 ($28) and announced continuous price monitoring, warning that any airline selling below this threshold would face penalties. The rationale for the minimum fare is that the marginal cost per seat on many routes exceeds this amount, aligning with the authorities’ objective of preventing predatory pricing below costs.

    In August 2025, the China Air Transport Association (CATA) officially released the “Self-Discipline Convention on Air Passenger Transport” (Convention), aimed at standardising the domestic air passenger market. The Convention emphasises that online travel platforms and ticketing agents must strictly adhere to airlines’ published fares, usage conditions, and refund/change policies, and prohibits unauthorised bundled sales or surcharges.

    The fourth quarter is typically weaker in the Chinese market than the first three quarters due to the absence of public holidays. This contrasts with the US and European markets, where Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year continue to drive visiting friends and relatives (VFR) travel demand. Even so, Q4 traffic is expected to see year-on-year growth, supported by strong booking momentum and robust air travel recorded during October’s Golden Week.

    The positive financial performance over the first nine months is a strong indicator of aviation market recovery and could further boost confidence in the financial outlook for Chinese airlines. International routes remain a critical driver of airline profitability, with load factors on high-yield segments playing a major role in earnings flexibility. In the first half of next year, Chinese carriers are expected to capitalise on increased capacity and supportive policies to boost yields and widen profit margins, potentially reducing losses or even returning to profitability. If strong load factors carry through to summer, combined with gradual fare yields’ recovery and stable costs, Chinese airlines could achieve a meaningful recovery in 2026.

  • EMS: From Growth to Renewal, Navigating the Next Decade

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Team Perspective

    Sara Dhariwal, Senior Aviation Analyst, Lead Appraiser – Helicopters & AAM, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Emergency Medical Services (EMS) helicopters have become a critical component of healthcare in many high-income countries. They enable patients in life-threatening conditions to reach hospital within the “golden hour”, often much faster by air than by road. In some markets, they are also used for inter-hospital transfers when specialised care is required.

    The EMS helicopter sector is highly dependent on funding, which can come from public or private sources. Operating models vary widely and include:

    • Government-funded services at national or local level.
    • Privately-owned hospitals, particularly in the United States.
    • Charity-funded operations, common in the United Kingdom.
    • Publicly funded, non-profit organisations.
    • Insurance and roadside assistance organisations, such as those in Germany.

    Aircraft may be operated directly by these organisations or outsourced to commercial operators under contract.

    The largest EMS helicopter fleet operates in North America, with nearly 1,400 aircraft configured for emergency missions—accounting for around 50% of the global total. Europe ranks second, operating approximately 800 helicopters, which represents close to 30% of the worldwide fleet.

    Source: Cirium Core

    Fleet composition differs significantly between these regions. In North America, single-turbine helicopters make up just over half of the fleet. In contrast, Europe rarely uses single-engine aircraft for EMS, with these representing only about 3% of its total fleet. This disparity stems largely from the single-engine-out rule introduced as part of EASA safety regulations in the early 2000s. This rule required that helicopters operating in certain conditions (e.g., over densely populated areas or at night) must be able to continue safe flight and landing after an engine failure—something single-engine helicopters cannot guarantee.

    There has also been a shift in operational philosophy. Rather than viewing helicopters solely as transport vehicles for moving patients from accident scenes to hospitals, Europe increasingly embraces the concept of delivering advanced emergency care onboard—similar to an ambulance. Consequently, cabin size has become a critical factor, driving a transition towards larger, medium twin-engine models, which now dominate the European EMS fleet.

    Source: Cirium Core

    Over the past decade, the EMS fleet has grown steadily at around 2.5% per year. This expansion has been partly enabled by lessors—of the approximately 560 helicopters added since 2015, 45% were leased aircraft. The leased share of the total EMS fleet is now at 14%, increased from 3% a decade ago.

    The rise in leased fleet share within the EMS sector was likely driven by lessors seeking to diversify portfolios that had previously been heavily exposed to the volatility of the oil and gas market. Another contributing factor is the growing demand for larger, more complex helicopter configurations, which become significantly more accessible through leasing arrangements.

    EMS contracts are generally more stable and long-term than those in the offshore sector—and for good reason. EMS helicopters require highly specialised configurations, often tailored for compatibility with hospital equipment. A seamless ‘plug-and-play’ capability upon patient arrival is critical for continuity of emergency care. Consequently, transferring a leased helicopter between operators typically involves costly interior modifications. Longer contract terms help ensure a return on investment for lessors, making stability essential in this segment.

    Outlook

    Looking ahead, the EMS helicopter market seem to be entering a phase of consolidation rather than rapid expansion. With growth moderating to just over 1.5% annually according to Cirium Fleet Analyzer and driven primarily by Asia, the industry’s focus will shift from fleet enlargement to asset optimisation.

    Approximately 30% of the existing fleet—largely concentrated in Europe and North America—will require replacement, underscoring the importance of lifecycle planning and cost efficiency. Cirium are expecting new deliveries to focus on twin engine types rather than single engine. New types like the H140 and the R88 are likely to stimulate demand.  

    For lessors, whose share of deliveries has plateaued, competitive advantage will increasingly depend on innovative leasing models and value-added services rather than scale.

    In short, success over the next decade is likely to focus on operational resilience and strategic positioning in a market where replacement, not growth, defines the opportunity.

    Attending European Rotors in Cologne, Germany? Sara will be taking part in the HEMS panel, Tuesday, 18th November at 15:15.

  • The outlook for airline capacity and slot allocation

    Herman Tse, Valuations Manager, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    The 157th IATA Slot Conference, scheduled to take place in Lisbon, Portugal from 18–20 November 2025, will serve as a pivotal forum for stakeholders in the aviation industry to address slot allocation and capacity management for the Northern Summer Season, spanning 26 March to 25 October 2026. As the industry continues its recovery and expansion in the post-Covid era, several factors including geopolitical tensions and ongoing aircraft supply constraints could pose potential challenges to sustaining growth momentum. This article examines the key themes likely to shape discussions at the conference and provides an outlook for airline capacity planning in 2026.

    Historically, global GDP growth has exhibited a strong positive correlation with air-travel demand. As economies expand, rising disposable incomes enable more individuals to afford air travel, while businesses increase travel budgets during periods of economic prosperity. Consequently, GDP growth is a critical indicator for forecasting future passenger demand. Recent data shows that entering the fourth quarter of 2025, developing economies such as India and China have demonstrated notable improvements in GDP growth forecasts. The USA, after experiencing a trough in mid-2025, has rebounded to near 2% growth. Looking ahead to 2026, global GDP growth is projected to range between 2.4% and 3.1%, according to leading economic institutions and intergovernmental organizations. This positive macroeconomic outlook underpins a favourable forecast for air travel demand in 2026.

    Chart 1: Development of 2025 GDP growth forecast

    Source: EIU, World is calculated at Market Exchange Rates

    Cirium flight schedules reveal that global airline seat capacity has been on a steady upward trajectory since early 2024, with all regions recording positive growth in 2025. The Asia-Pacific region stands out, driven by robust domestic demand, particularly in China and India. However, further recovery in this region is contingent upon the resolution of geopolitical issues, such as the China-US relationship and Russian airspace overflight restrictions. The Middle East continues to solidify its role as a strategic hub for long-haul traffic between Asia, Europe, and Africa. Notably, some European carriers have scaled back operations in the Chinese market due to competitive disadvantages stemming from Russia overflight constraints, which favour Chinese operators.

    Europe is also experiencing strong growth in both regional and international seat capacity, propelled by the resurgence of leisure travel, visiting friends and relatives (VFR) traffic, and the expansion of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in Southern and Eastern Europe. In contrast, the North American market presents a more nuanced picture. While the US domestic market has shown weakness, with year-on-year declines in the latter half of 2025, the international segment continues to grow, resulting in an overall positive capacity change for the region. Globally, seat capacity growth is expected to reach 3.6% by the end of 2025, with similar trends anticipated for 2026.

    Chart 2: Global seat capacity trend

    Source: Cirium Core, Flight schedules dated 31 October 2025

    Despite the optimistic demand outlook, the industry continues to grapple with aircraft supply shortages. During the pandemic, it is estimated that over 3,600 aircraft deliveries from Airbus and Boeing were cancelled or deferred, creating a significant deficit. However, the situation has gradually improved, with both manufacturers ramping up production rates. Data from Cirium Fleets Analyzer indicates that the Airbus A320 family averaged 55 first flights per month in Q3 2025 and reaching 68 in September 2025. Boeing has also shown progress, averaging 38 737 first flights over the past three months following the resolution of 737-9 and FAA certification challenges in 2024. Cirium Ascend Consultancy estimates 1,390 single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft to be delivered by the two major OEMs in 2025. The global passenger fleet now exceeds 22,000 aircraft, compared to 20,000 in 2019.

    Chart 3: The monthly first flight trend of single-aisle aircraft from Airbus and Boeing

    Source: Cirium Core, Fleets Analyzer dated 13 October 2025

    While the aircraft deficit persists, it is now significantly lower than the initial shortfall. Cirium Ascend analysis estimates the single-aisle passenger aircraft shortage at fewer than 200 units, while the twin-aisle deficit remains around 700. The longevity of single-aisle aircraft has been extended, aided by relatively low and stable oil prices, which make continued operation of older models economically viable. Conversely, many older twin-aisle aircraft were retired or converted to freighters during the pandemic and are unlikely to return to passenger service. Repeated delays to the Boeing 777X program is expected to prolong the shortage of twin-aisle aircraft, potentially impacting long-haul capacity planning.

    In summary, the outlook for passenger demand in 2026 remains robust, supported by continued recovery in international travel, easing supply constraints, and sustained growth in emerging markets. Global airline seat capacity in 2026 is projected to increase by approximately 3-4% compared to 2025. However, growth rates will vary across regions, reflecting differing market dynamics and operational challenges. Airlines are expected to maintain disciplined capacity management, balancing expansion with the realities of ongoing aircraft supply shortages and operational complexities.

    Cirium is a proud sponsor of the 157th IATA Slot Conference. Don’t miss the opportunity to connect with the team to learn more about how we’re supporting the aviation industry with data and insights to power smarter decisions across operations.

    Whether you’re optimizing network planning, enhancing day-of-operations performance, or evaluating route economics, we enable you to unlock new efficiencies and opportunities.

    Secure your meeting with the team today – we look forward to seeing you in Lisbon!

  • A deep dive into the Middle East aviation market 

    Cirium recently hosted its inaugural Middle East Market Briefing, bringing together industry leaders and experts to analyze the region’s aviation landscape. The event provided a comprehensive overview of the market, covering everything from post-pandemic recovery and fleet growth to future forecasts and operational performance. 

    The briefing included presentations featuring global and Middle East insights, as well as a keynote interview with Firoz Tarapore, CEO of DAE Capital. It offered a detailed examination of current trends and future projections, highlighting the region’s robust growth and strategic importance in global aviation. This article recaps the key data and insights shared during the event. 

    Global economic context and market status

    Stephen Burnside, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy began the briefing by setting the global macroeconomic scene. The current economic climate is diverging from the “goldilocks” scenario once envisioned for 2025-2026, where conditions were expected to be “not too hot, and not too cold.” Instead, many economic figures are approaching multi-decade highs or lows, creating a more complex environment for the aviation industry to navigate. 

    Despite these global headwinds, the airline industry is showing resilience. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts continued growth in airline revenue and profit into 2025, signaling sustained recovery and operational strength across the sector. 

    Middle East: a story of resilient recovery 

    A central theme of the briefing was the remarkable recovery of air travel in the Middle East. Andrew Doyle, Senior Director Market Development, provided an analysis of Cirium Diio FM traffic data which reveals that passenger numbers at Middle Eastern airports have not only bounced back from the pandemic dip but have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, reaching a new record in 2024. 

    This trend is also reflected in flight schedules. Data from Cirium Diio SRS Analyzer shows a consistent and strong recovery in scheduled passenger flights. This upward trajectory demonstrates the resilience of the region’s carriers and the sustained demand for air travel to, from, and within the Middle East. The area continues to solidify its position as a critical global hub. 

    Fleet dynamics: growth and future outlook

    The in-service commercial fleet in the Middle East has experienced significant growth over the past three decades. Cirium Ascend Fleets Analyzer data illustrates a steady expansion across all market classes, from narrowbodies to widebodies. This growth trajectory is set to continue. 

    Aircraft orders and backlogs
    The demand for new aircraft remains strong. The global single-aisle backlog is rising again, now equivalent to nine years of production at forecasted delivery rates. Similarly, the twin-aisle backlog has increased substantially in 2025, representing eight years of production. This indicates a long-term commitment from airlines, including those in the Middle East, to modernize and expand their fleets. 

    Aircraft values and lease rates 
    The strong demand for aircraft has also influenced market values and lease rates. Over the past year, values for all aircraft classes have increased by 4-16%. Widebody aircraft saw the most significant gains in lease rates, with a 14% increase year-on-year as of October 2024. This reflects the high demand for long-haul travel and the strategic value of widebody fleets for the region’s network carriers. 

    20-Year Fleet Forecast: doubling down on growth

    Looking ahead, the Cirium 20-Year Fleet Forecast projects a bright future for the region. The global passenger fleet is expected to grow by 23,000 units over the next two decades, and the Middle East is a key driver of this expansion. 

    Middle Eastern carriers are forecast to grow at an impressive 4.9% annually. This growth will be propelled by the continued strength of Gulf network hubs and the rapidly expanding Saudi Arabian market. As a result, the region’s passenger aircraft fleet is projected to more than double by 2044, cementing its role as a powerhouse in global aviation. 

    Find out more about the 2025-2044 Cirium Fleet Forecast

    Operational excellence and performance

    The briefing also explored the operational side of the industry, highlighting the performance of Middle Eastern airlines and airports. 

    On-Time Performance 
    Many Middle Eastern carriers demonstrated exceptional reliability. The region’s airlines that achieved the highest rates of on-time departures during the first three quarters of 2025 were highlighted. Several carriers also showed significant improvement in their departure punctuality compared to the previous year, underscoring a commitment to operational efficiency and passenger satisfaction. 

    Ground events and maintenance 
    The region is also a key center for aircraft maintenance. An analysis of Cirium Ascend Ground Events showed that 14 heavy checks on Boeing 787 aircraft have been completed in the Middle East to date. This capability is vital for maintaining modern, complex fleets and ensuring aircraft are available to meet passenger demand. 

    Strengthening demand and fares 
    Data for Arab Air Carriers’ Organization (AACO) members shows that passenger demand has continued to strengthen throughout the year. This sustained demand underpins the positive financial and operational trends seen across the region. 

    A focus on sustainability 

    Sustainability was another important topic. A review of flight emissions revealed the Middle Eastern airlines and airports with the lowest emissions intensities for the period of January to September 2025. This highlighted the positive impact of operating modern, fuel-efficient fleets and showcased the region’s progress in addressing aviation’s environmental responsibilities. 

    Your partner in aviation analytics 

    The inaugural Middle East Market Briefing underscored the region’s dynamic and resilient aviation sector. With record passenger numbers, significant fleet expansion, and strong operational performance, the Middle East is poised for continued growth and leadership in the global industry. 

    Cirium’s data and analytics provide the foundation for understanding these complex market dynamics. If you would like to explore these insights further, our dedicated team in the Middle East is ready to assist.  

    Contact us to learn how Cirium can support your organization’s strategic goals. 

  • A journey through the ISTAT Professional Development Program

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Eleni Maragkou, Valuations Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Completing the ISTAT Professional Development Program (PDP) was a valuable and rewarding experience, that strengthened both my technical and professional expertise within the aviation finance industry.

    The programme offered valuable deep dive into every aspect of the aviation industry, from aircraft valuation, design and manufacturing to finance and trading. Each module provided practical insight into the commercial and financial drivers that shape the aviation sector. Another significant advantage of the course was the opportunity to network with classmates and knowledgeable course leaders who come from diverse areas across the industry, which supported my understanding the value of the course and its benefits.

    A particular highlight was my opportunity to present my slides on the topic of “Why is aircraft valuation both an art and a science?”, which is a very immersive and open-ended topic. This experience enhanced and demonstrated my ability to communicate complex topics, and our group received positive feedback on both content and delivery.

    The visit to the Airbus A350 assembly line in Toulouse, was another highlight, offering valuable perspective and understanding on aircraft design, production, and programme implementation.

    Towards the final sessions of the course, we conducted an exciting assessment on whether we should place an aircraft on lease or sell it, and the reward for achieving this was a golden ticket which entitles the holder to sit out the final exam. After many discussions and questions, I was informed by the course leaders that I won the tickets, however, I still chose to sit the exam regardless with my fellow coursemates. Additionally, I was also recognised for among the high scores in class along with my graduation diploma.

    Overall, the ISTAT PDP deepened and enhanced my understanding of the aviation value chain, strengthened my commitment to continued professional growth in the industry and provided me with valuable industry connections.

  • Royal Jordanian Airlines: 95% OTP. A Middle East Success Story

    Mike Malik, Chief Marketing Officer, Cirium

    Finding Space Between the Giants

    While Gulf carriers built empires on long-haul wide-body operations, Royal Jordanian identified a different opportunity in the early 2000s. The airline positioned itself as the region’s connectivity specialist, deploying efficient regional jets to secondary cities that larger carriers couldn’t economically serve with 777s and A380s. Routes across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf that seemed too small for the big players collectively created a robust feeder system.

    This wasn’t just about filling gaps—it enabled frequency. More daily departures mean flexibility for business travelers, and flexibility converts to loyalty faster than price alone ever will.

    Global Reach Through Strategic Leverage

    The regional focus provided foundation, but Royal Jordanian’s 2007 entry into Oneworld transformed its competitive position. Suddenly, a carrier focused on short-haul connectivity could offer seamless global itineraries. A passenger could fly Royal Jordanian from a secondary Middle Eastern city through Amman, then connect onward via British Airways, American, or Cathay Pacific—all on one ticket with reciprocal benefits.

    The alliance delivered network scale without requiring capital-intensive fleet expansion. Royal Jordanian maintained operational control over what it does best while gaining access to hundreds of global destinations through partnership infrastructure.

    Differentiation Through Service Quality

    When Air Arabia, flydubai, and Jazeera Airways disrupted the market post-2008 with aggressive pricing, Royal Jordanian faced a choice: compete on price or compete on value. They chose value.

    The airline upgraded cabins, enhanced ground services at Queen Alia, and strengthened the Royal Club loyalty program while maximizing Oneworld benefits. The bet was straightforward—there’s a segment willing to pay more for reliability, comfort, and convenience, even in price-sensitive markets.

    That positioning creates breathing room. Low-cost carriers optimize for different economics and different passengers. Full-service carriers that try to match LCC pricing while maintaining legacy cost structures can lose twice—once on margin, once on brand clarity.

    The Operational Discipline Behind the Rankings

    Royal Jordanian operates over 500 weekly flights with more than 110 daily departures from Amman, spanning four continents. That operational intensity requires precision, and the 2025 performance data demonstrates sustained execution:

    Looking at these month-by-month results, what stands out isn’t just the peaks—it’s the consistency. Using Cirium’s definition of on-time arrivals within 15 minutes of schedule, Royal Jordanian maintained discipline even when they slipped to 5th in June. The airline had finished 3rd regionally in the 2024 Annual Review with 87.02% OTP and 99.31% completion rate.

    These aren’t isolated wins. They represent systematic process management across route planning, turnaround operations, and real-time decision-making under operational pressure.

    Leadership and Execution

    What changed under Chairman Said Darwazeh and CEO Samer Majali wasn’t the strategy—Royal Jordanian’s regional focus predates their tenure. What changed was execution discipline. Majali, who returned to Royal Jordanian in 2021 after leading Gulf Air and SaudiGulf Airlines, brought additional operational discipline that shows in the numbers.

    The 2024 results tell the story: operating profit jumped 260% to JD11.8 million on revenues of JD745.6 million, while carrying 3.7 million passengers. More telling—the airline is self-funding fleet modernization rather than relying on government capital injections. The leadership has plans to have had 70% of the fleet renewed by year-end.

    Fleet decisions drive operational performance. Based on the most current information from Cirium Fleets Analyzer, the airline operates 35 Aircraft currently with 11 on order. Order book includes a six B787-9’s, three A321’s, one A320 and one E195 E2. The average age of the current fleet is 8.7 years. This fleet mix is clearly about matching equipment to mission—and creating the frequency advantage that built the business model in the first place.

    Lessons for Mid-Sized Carriers

    H.E. ENG. SAMER ABDELSALAM MAJALI, Vice Chairman / Board Designee CEO, Royal Jordanian

    Royal Jordanian’s performance offers a template, particularly for mid-sized carriers navigating between legacy constraints and LCC disruption. The lessons are transferable:

    Strategic focus beats scale ambition. Trying to compete everywhere usually means winning nowhere. Royal Jordanian identified underserved regional routes and dominated them rather than fighting for share on contested long-haul corridors.

    Alliances multiply capability without multiplying cost. Oneworld membership gave Royal Jordanian global network reach without the capital requirements of building it organically. For carriers lacking the resources of Gulf super-connectors, alliance leverage becomes essential infrastructure.

    Service differentiation requires operational proof. Promising better service means nothing if flights don’t depart on time. Royal Jordanian’s OTP performance validates their service positioning—customers paying premium fares need reliability first.

    Strategic Clarity in a Crowded Market

    Royal Jordanian didn’t try to become Emirates or match Ryanair’s cost structure. They carved out defensible territory and executed with precision. What strikes me about their approach is the clarity—in an industry where many carriers struggle to articulate what makes them different, Royal Jordanian’s focus is unmistakable.

    That September result—95.39% with perfect completion—isn’t an outlier. It’s what happens when strategy and execution align consistently. With three months remaining in 2025, I’m watching closely to see if they can maintain this momentum through year-end.

  • Cirium forecasts 46,500 aircraft deliveries worth $3.4 trillion

    LONDON (Oct. 14, 2025) – Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, today published its annual Fleet Forecast, revealing the future of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market.

    The long-running independent forecast, produced by Cirium Ascend Consultancy, predicts 46,500 aircraft will be delivered globally over the next 20 years, equating to a total value of USD$3.4 trillion, as airlines continue to invest in newer, more sustainable aircraft.

    However, this year’s forecast comes as the aviation industry faces continued supply chain issues, geopolitical uncertainty, and delays to certification of new programmes, tempering the pace of fleet growth. The analysis projects a 6% reduction in deliveries over the next seven years compared to last year’s edition, mainly due to single-aisle aircraft production ramping up slower than expected. Long-term demand remains strong, with a 1% increase in deliveries overall.

    Other key findings include:

    • Asia continues to drive fleet growth, accounting for 45% of deliveries, led by demand in China and India.
    • Airbus and Boeing are projected to deliver 85% of aircraft and 92% by value through 2044, while COMAC is expected to capture 6% of global demand.
    • Single-aisle aircraft now account for 71% of the global fleet, while twin-aisle and regional jets remain below pre-pandemic levels.

    Stephen Burnside, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “This year’s Cirium Fleet Forecast shows the global aviation industry is moving forward with confidence despite near-term headwinds. Long-term demand remains robust across every region, airlines continue to invest in fleet renewal, and OEMs continue to incrementally increase their R&D budgets in preparation for the next generation of aircraft families. The next chapter of aviation growth is being defined by the need for supply chain resilience, production capacity right sizing, product and service innovation, and a focus on efficiency.

    An executive summary of the Cirium Fleet Forecast is available to download here.

    For Cirium media inquiries please contact media@cirium.com

    Notes to editors:

    • The forecast covers aircraft sized from 30 seats upwards and their freighter equivalents.
    • The forecast does not include electric, hybrid or hydrogen-powered aircraft programmes, as the development of existing or all-new commercial aircraft is expected to be centred on conventional propulsion, powered by increasing use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

  • King Khalid International Airport: Precision, Planning and Performance in Riyadh

    Mike Malik, Chief Marketing Officer, Cirium

    King Khalid International Airport (RUH), positioned 35 kilometers north of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia has established itself as a global benchmark for airport operational excellence. In Cirium’s 2024 On-Time Performance Awards, RUH was recognized as the Most On-Time Global Airport, achieving an industry-leading departure OTP rate of 86.65%—a distinction that places the airport at the forefront of global aviation performance standards.

    In 2024, the airport handled a record-breaking 37 million passengers with double-digit year-on-year growth, added 15 new airlines to its roster and recognized as the second busiest airport in the Kingdom. These results demonstrate effective integration of infrastructure, planning, and process optimization across increasing passenger volumes.

    Leadership Driving Transformation

    Under the stewardship of CEO Ayman Abdulaziz AboAbah, who was appointed in February 2024, Riyadh Airports Company has accelerated its operational excellence initiatives. Mr. AboAbah brings extensive aviation sector experience, having previously served as CEO of Jeddah Airports where he enhanced planning and operations at King Abdulaziz International Airport. His tenure has coincided with RUH’s ascent to global recognition, reflecting strategic focus on operational discipline and systematic performance improvement.

    The leadership team’s commitment to excellence has resulted in exceeding revenue targets by over 15%, with enhanced offerings, stronger partnerships, and significant increases in passenger movements, according to industry reports. This performance underscores the airport’s evolution from regional gateway to emerging global hub.

    Operational Resilience Through Strategic Infrastructure

    Ayman Abdulaziz AboAbah, CEO, Riyadh Airports Company

    RUH’s performance reflects purposeful modernization strategies implemented over several years. The expansion of Terminals 1 and 2 increased the airport’s passenger handling capacity by 40% — from 10 million to 14 million annually. By upgrading baggage handling, adding security lanes, and introducing automation like self-service kiosks and automated boarding gates, the airport has cut processing times per passenger and unlocked higher throughput.

    The 2022 commissioning of Terminals 3 and 4 marked a decisive step in RUH’s evolution. Terminal 3’s reconfiguration from domestic to international operations represents an important strategic shift to accommodate long-haul growth. A centralized check-in system now serves both terminals, allowing flexible resource utilization and enhanced operational fluidity. These terminal linkages, combined with renewed airside control infrastructure, have streamlined aircraft movements and reduced turnaround times—key enablers of on-time departures.

    The airport’s connectivity received another boost with the opening of Riyadh Metro Line 4 on December 1, 2024, providing passengers with efficient access to the city center through stations serving all terminal complexes.

    Strategic Alignment with National Objectives

    RUH’s growth is tightly linked to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, supporting Riyadh’s emergence as a global hub for business and tourism. Backed by GACA and managed by Riyadh Airports Company, its development roadmap ensures infrastructure expansion matches the pace of rising traffic and future demand—positioning RUH as a cornerstone of national connectivity.

    The on-time performance gains reflect systematic operational improvements rather than statistical outliers. Enhancements to landside and airside coordination, expansion of aircraft parking bays, and deployment of real-time operational control technologies are part of a disciplined approach to minimize delays and improve predictability across the passenger journey.

    Data Standards and Industry Recognition

    Cirium’s On-Time Performance program serves as the gold standard for measuring airline and airport operational performance, using rigorous methodology that combines global flight tracking with airport-level operational data. On-time flights at airports are defined as those departing within 15 minutes of scheduled departure times. RUH’s recognition within this program reflects not only punctuality but consistency—demonstrating reliable performance across a complex operational environment.

    The achievement underscores a broader transformation taking place across the Kingdom’s aviation sector—one that extends well beyond operational metrics to fundamental shifts in how airports can function as economic catalysts.

    From Regional Gateway to Global Hub

    Since opening in 1983, King Khalid International Airport (RUH) has evolved from a regional gateway to a critical global node. The transformation required infrastructure investment, operational discipline, and leadership vision working in concert.

    Today, King Khalid International Airport (RUH) stands as one of the world’s most efficient large airports—a working model for how airports can excel amid rising expectations and traffic complexity. In an industry where timing defines competitive advantage, RUH’s four decades of strategic evolution positions it as an essential component of Saudi Arabia’s aviation future, proving that systematic operational excellence achieves results that resonate across global performance benchmarks.

  • For the aircraft engine market, newer may not be better – yet

    Vanessa Gu, Asia Finance Editor, Cirium

    Power to perform: The aircraft engine market was broadcast live Thursday 25th September.

    The cost of maintaining new-generation engines is expected to be higher than current-generation engines even with improvements in hardware, supply and the easing of MRO constraints.

    That is as the latest engines are requiring more shop visits than those of 10 years ago as more efficient fuel burn has inadvertently resulted in quicker wear and tear, and shorter time on wing.

    While ongoing improvements such as Pratt & Whitney’s GTF Advantage programme and more durable blades on the CFM International Leap engines are expected to allay some of those issues, “it still is an altogether different level of cost on engines now compared with the previous generation,” says Giles Thomas, Managing Director at Charlotte Parker Associates.

    “So it will get better. I don’t think, unfortunately, we’re going to get back to the levels of time on wing and product robustness, or reliability … that we, for example, saw relatively now on the CFM56, V2500, widebody, GE CF6, Trent 700 which were pretty predictable,” he adds, while speaking on a panel Cirium’s ‘Power to perform: the aircraft engine market’ webinar.

    At the same time, the unreliability of new-generation engines has made an increasing number of airlines “a bit reluctant to look into the new technology aircraft also because there’s a lot of risk which they got to take on that,” says Mahesh Kumar, chief executive of Capital A subsidiary Asia Digital Engineering, who was also on the panel.

    That reluctance has been exacerbated by engine manufacturers moving away from power-by-the-hour agreements as OEMs have underestimated the amount of maintenance and repair their engines need, says Kumar.

    Coupled with the ongoing supply chain crunch and MRO slot constraints, the values and lease rates of old and new generation engines have rocketed in the past six years, leaving airlines to bear the brunt of added costs.

    “That’s the interesting part of it – your product [new generation engines] is not reliable, the value of your engine went up because the demands spiked up, so on that I would say the airlines are on the suffering part of it,” Kumar states.

    Engine values and lease rates

    The market lease rates of narrowbody and widebody engines have gone up by 34% and 23%, respectively, while market values are up 14% and 5%, respectively, compared to September 2019, details Cirium’s Senior Valuations Analyst Lionel Olonga on the webinar.

    Breaking it down further for narrowbody engines, the increase in value is most pronounced over the last two years for CFM56-7B engines that power Boeing 737-800s and International Aero Engines V2500 powering Airbus A320ceos.

    The increase in values for -7Bs are mainly driven by the NGs operating for longer due to delivery delays, while the increase for V2500s are due to operators which have A320neos powered by Pratt & Whitney’s PW1100G engines in their fleet renewal plans increasing the use of their existing -ceos, explains Olonga.

    On market lease rates, PW1100G has seen a more than two-fold increase on lease rates compared with 2019, while the Leap-1A and -1B engines have seen a more than 50% increase.

    These increases come on the back of an uptick in maintenance costs and green time value for new generation narrowbody engines – such as the Leap and GTF – which have increased by over 50% in the last six years, while those for CFM56s and V2500s are 10-30% higher, says Olonga.

    Widebody engines also tell a similar story, with maintenance costs and green time values up 60% for new generation engines and a 10-30% uptick for older generation engines.

    Gradual decline to sane pricing

    The current issues facing the industry have been described as a perfect storm that is expected to bare its teeth until the end of the decade.

    However, as the supply of new aircraft increases and as MRO constraints ease, there will be a “readjustment”, says Thomas, though he cautions it will be gradual and measured.

    As older aircraft retire with the incoming new generation jets, Thomas is of the view that values of CFM56s or the V2500s “will certainly decline”.

    “A decline, I should clarify, doesn’t mean … necessarily, very quickly. And what I mean is decline from the current very high levels today” to “historic levels pre-Covid” before the aircraft types start retiring in volume, he says.

    An example of “high levels”, he details, is how he heard anecdotally that “completely run out” CFM56 engines with no performance left and “virtually done” life limited parts trading for above $3 million.

    “Therefore, that sort of elevated level of value, which is purely a factor of lack of MRO capacity and lack of power supply, that will disappear, so therefore the engine values would, for that sort of engines, go back to a million or less,” he goes on to say.

    In the meantime, however, values for engines are expected to stay high as airlines continue to grapple with a litany of issues ranging from MRO slot constraints and unreliability of new generation engines.

    Kumar says the need for spares is not merely about manufacturers producing the required engines but also related to increased shop visits due to engine reliability issues.

    And shop visits now have longer turnaround times and increased costs, and from an airline’s perspective, “it might make sense to get another engine in, rather than putting the older engine for a shop visit,” states Kumar. This in turn further drives up values.

    Regardless of when the gradual fall of values might happen, Thomas cautions: “If one is investing in engines today, one needs to be very aware of what engine build standard one is investing in, so that you have some knowledge and competence in the longevity of that particular engine variant of any new engine technology engine.”

    Premature aircraft partout will continue (for now)

    There are at least 15 A320neo family aircraft that have been retired for part-out as the value of a pair of engines is hovering close to 70% of total aircraft value for the type, says Olonga.

    With the value of engines taking up such a big portion of aircraft value, the interest in purchasing aircraft for the engine or for parting them out is expected to continue.

    Thomas recalls how one airline said it was doing four engine changes in the next 10 days “purely to keep its fleet flying”, highlighting a “horrendously complex situation which is not going to be cured quickly”, meaning demand for part-out engines will remain high.

    At the same time, for lessors, leasing an aircraft at a price they need while taking into consideration the high engine values may be hard for airlines to swallow.

    “Therefore the solution for engines is actually pretty neat, and the byproduct of that also is all the serviceable used material from the rest of the aircraft and airframe,” says Thomas.

    Kumar likewise concurs that interest in parting out new generation aircraft will continue, recounting that an airline was willing to lease a widebody just to drop both the engines and put it back to operations.

    “It makes complete sense for the lessors to just drop the engines from the aircraft and then lease it where they can make a better margin out of it, rather than leasing the whole plane,” he says, adding that it also reduces transition and redelivery costs.

    Despite the continued interest, it is widely acknowledged that the parting out of six-year-old aircraft with years of service left due to part shortages and limited MRO slots is highly unsustainable.

    While Thomas expects the situation to continue in the shorter to medium term, he hopes to see “common sense and normal rules of the aviation industry returning in a couple of years’ time”.

    Power to perform: The aircraft engine market is now available to watch on demand.