Contact Us
  • Aerospace
  • Air cargo
  • Air finance
  • Airline
  • Announcement
  • Ascend Consultancy

Cirium projects slowed production of single-aisle aircraft over next seven years; 46,500 aircraft delivered worth USD$3.4 trillion over the next 20 years


The 20-year global commercial aircraft market forecast shows 1% increase in deliveries over the long-term compared to 2024, tempered by the persistent short-term production constraints facing the aviation industry.

LONDON (Oct. 14, 2025) – Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, today published its annual Fleet Forecast, revealing the future of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market.

The long-running independent forecast, produced by Cirium Ascend Consultancy, predicts 46,500 aircraft will be delivered globally over the next 20 years, equating to a total value of USD$3.4 trillion, as airlines continue to invest in newer, more sustainable aircraft.

However, this year’s forecast comes as the aviation industry faces continued supply chain issues, geopolitical uncertainty, and delays to certification of new programmes, tempering the pace of fleet growth. The analysis projects a 6% reduction in deliveries over the next seven years compared to last year’s edition, mainly due to single-aisle aircraft production ramping up slower than expected. Long-term demand remains strong, with a 1% increase in deliveries overall.

Other key findings include:

  • Asia continues to drive fleet growth, accounting for 45% of deliveries, led by demand in China and India.
  • Airbus and Boeing are projected to deliver 85% of aircraft and 92% by value through 2044, while COMAC is expected to capture 6% of global demand.
  • Single-aisle aircraft now account for 71% of the global fleet, while twin-aisle and regional jets remain below pre-pandemic levels.

Stephen Burnside, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “This year’s Cirium Fleet Forecast shows the global aviation industry is moving forward with confidence despite near-term headwinds. Long-term demand remains robust across every region, airlines continue to invest in fleet renewal, and OEMs continue to incrementally increase their R&D budgets in preparation for the next generation of aircraft families. The next chapter of aviation growth is being defined by the need for supply chain resilience, production capacity right sizing, product and service innovation, and a focus on efficiency.

An executive summary of the Cirium Fleet Forecast is available to download here.


For Cirium media inquiries please contact media@cirium.com

Notes to editors:

  • The forecast covers aircraft sized from 30 seats upwards and their freighter equivalents.
  • The forecast does not include electric, hybrid or hydrogen-powered aircraft programmes, as the development of existing or all-new commercial aircraft is expected to be centred on conventional propulsion, powered by increasing use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

About Cirium
Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities, enabling them to optimize operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth.

Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam, and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.

For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

RELX logo