Scott McCartney, Aviation Consultant and Adjunct Professor Duke University
On 12 of the first 25 days of November, United Airlines said hundreds of flights at Newark Liberty International Airport had to be canceled or delayed simply because of a shortage of air-traffic controllers.
It was nothing new. All year, the Federal Aviation Administration, short about 3,000 controllers nationwide, required cuts to flight schedules in the busiest aviation corridor in North America. During the summer, a 10% schedule reduction was ordered for the three main New York airports and more cuts in Washington, D.C. Then even more flights had to be grounded in August.
Despite that challenge and others, North American airlines posted a higher on-time arrival rate in 2024 at 76.36% compared to 74.45% last year.
There were more than 4% more total flights.
One key for airlines has been moving to powerful artificial-intelligence computing that can quickly re-arrange operations. That has always been a most-difficult puzzle. When airplanes and crews are out of place, gates are full and passengers are stranded, how an airline recovers greatly impacts overall performance.
Southwest Airlines, for example, suffered a major disruption at the end of 2022 not because of a bad winter storm but rather the airline’s inability to restart its 800 airplanes.
Southwest invested in new recovery system that improves crew communications and in minutes develops an efficient plan so a three- or four-day disruption is limited to a single day.
Last year, on-time performance increased almost two percentage points to 77.26%
Delta Air Lines once again was #1 in OTP, a particularly remarkable achievement considering Delta not only operates two hubs in New York but also fell victim to a week-long disruption from the July CrowdStrike cyber security failure. Delta’s recovery was much slower than other carriers.
Yet despite that setback, Delta’s performance the other 51 weeks of the year exceeded rivals by significant margins.
United is close on Delta’s heels, posting an on-time arrival average of 80.93%, just behind Delta’s 83.46%. For the year, Delta’s OTP was about one point below 2023 while United’s was about one point higher.
Considering the two are now the two largest airlines in the world in passenger traffic, as well as the leaders in OTP in their region, the reliability is a remarkable achievement. Despite increased growth, complexity, congestion and external headwinds like controller shortages, U.S. airlines continue to improve dependability, better-serving customers and their own bottom lines.
Report highlights
Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running
Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category
Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors
Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award
Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
Aeromexico has reached two significant milestones in 2024, securing Cirium’s prestigious Global On-Time Performance (OTP) Award with an impressive on-time rate of 86.70%, and celebrating a milestone 90th anniversary on September 14, 2024, marking nearly a century of contributions to Mexico’s aviation industry.
With its vibrant cultural heritage and economic significance, Mexico stands as a nation rich in history and tradition. Renowned for its diverse landscapes, from ancient ruins to bustling urban centers, it is the second-largest economy in Latin America. Mexico’s robust macroeconomic framework and industrial diversity position it as a critical player in regional and global commerce, fostering strong ties through trade and tourism alike.
The airline industry plays a central role in advancing Mexico’s economic integration and connectivity. Aeromexico, a leading airline with deep roots in the nation, commands a significant 39% share of the domestic market and 47% of the international market. The broader aviation market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% through 2032, reflecting heightened demand for both domestic and international air travel. This sustained growth strengthens Mexico’s position as a key aviation hub, driving trade, tourism, and investment while solidifying the industry’s indispensable role in the country’s economic framework.
Consistent Excellence in On-Time Performance
Throughout 2024, Aeromexico has consistently demonstrated superior on-time performance, earning it recognition as one of the most reliable airlines worldwide.
In September, the airline achieved an OTP of 91.13%, a nearly 5% improvement from August’s 86.54%. These results reflect Aeromexico’s effective operational strategies, meticulous scheduling, and proactive approach to minimizing delays across its network.
The airline’s success is based on its robust infrastructure, built on a foundation of cutting-edge technology and efficient processes. By streamlining maintenance operations and adopting real-time data analytics to monitor performance, Aeromexico ensures passengers can depend on timely departures and arrivals—a cornerstone of its operational philosophy.
Continued Fleet Expansion
Aeromexico’s ability to achieve an 86.70% OTP in 2024 can be attributed to its strategic investments in fleet modernization and technological advancements. Over the past year, the airline has expanded its fleet to 113 aircraft, with 16 more on order—one of the youngest and most fuel-efficient in the industry—with an average age of just 7.1 years. Key acquisitions, including the Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 and 787 Dreamliners, have bolstered operational capacity while maintaining high standards for performance and environmental sustainability.
Additionally, Aeromexico’s adoption of advanced scheduling systems and AI-powered tools, has further enhanced its operational agility. These technologies have enabled proactive management of potential disruptions, including weather-related challenges, ensuring the airline retains its edge in on-time performance and reliability.
Collaborative Efforts and Industry Leadership
The achievement of this On-Time milestone is proof of the dedication and expertise of Aeromexico’s team, whose collaborative efforts have been instrumental in driving success. From front-line staff to operational planners, every member of the Aeromexico family has contributed to creating a reliable and efficient network. Under the operational leadership of COO Santiago Diago, the airline has implemented effective strategies that have significantly enhanced on-time performance and overall performance. Meanwhile, CEO Andrés Conesa’s strategic vision has ensured that Aeromexico remains focused on growth, innovation, and delivering a world-class passenger experience. Together, their leadership has been pivotal in fostering the culture of excellence that continues to set Aeromexico apart.
Additionally, strong partnerships with key airports, including its hub at Mexico City Benito Juarez International Airport, have further bolstered its operational capabilities.
This recognition reflects not only the airline’s innovative approach but also its resilience and unwavering commitment to excellence in the face of industry challenges.
Congratulations to the entire Aeromexico team for a brilliant performance!
Report highlights
Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running
Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category
Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors
Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award
Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
Jay Morgan, Director, Professional Data Services, Cirium
Iberia Express (I2) has once again proven itself as one of Europe’s most reliable airlines, securing the top spot for On-Time Performance (OTP) in 2024. For the second year running, the airline achieved impressive operational efficiency, with 84.69% of its 44,140 flights arriving on time. This accomplishment sets a high standard in European aviation.
Building on its strong performance in 2023, Iberia Express has excelled in 2024 with notable expansions. While the Canary and Balearic Islands remain key markets, its seasonal routes saw significant growth, including flights to Marrakech (+460%), Menorca (+52%), Edinburgh (+250%), and Cairo (+885%).
This achievement highlights Iberia Express’s dedication to punctuality and reflects its broader commitment to operational excellence and forward-thinking culture.
A Culture of Excellence
Headquartered in Madrid, Iberia Express focuses on precision, efficiency, and customer service. As part of the Iberia Group which itself is part of the International Airlines Group (IAG), the airline benefits from a legacy of operational rigor and innovation.
Its success is no accident. Iberia Express uses advanced analytics and technology to optimize processes like fleet maintenance and scheduling.
This data-driven approach helps manage complex variables affecting OTP, ensuring passengers enjoy seamless journeys. A workforce committed to professionalism and collaboration also drives its consistent performance.
Madrid: A Hub of Success
Madrid, the city that headquarters Iberia Express, plays an essential role in shaping the airline’s success. The Spanish capital is not just a major European transportation hub; it is also a symbol of cultural pride and efficiency. Spain’s deep historical emphasis on innovation and discipline is reflected in its aviation sector, with Madrid-Barajas Adolfo Suárez Airport serving as a crucial node for international and regional flights alike.
The city’s geographic position reinforces Iberia Express’s strategic importance within European aviation.
Situated at the crossroads of Europe, Africa, and Latin America, Madrid enables the airline to seamlessly connect diverse global markets while maintaining stringent operational standards. This unique positioning helps Iberia Express stand at the forefront of European connectivity, making its achievements in OTP all the more remarkable.
A Symbol of Spanish Excellence
Spain’s focus on precision and innovation is reflected in Iberia Express’s success. From its high-speed rail to world-class infrastructure, the country’s values of efficiency and reliability influence the airline’s operations. These cultural attributes strongly influence the airline, making it a symbol of Spanish reliability and quality.
Topping Europe’s OTP rankings, Iberia Express demonstrates more than punctuality—it embodies a spirit of excellence. As a leader in European aviation, the airline bridges high expectations with exceptional service, setting a benchmark for others to follow.
Report highlights
Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running
Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category
Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors
Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award
Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
At a ceremony held February 10, 2025, in El Dorado Airport (BOG), Cirium’s Chief Executive Officer, Jeremy Bowen, presented the inaugural Platinum Award for Operational Excellence to Natali Leal, General Manager/CEO of Aeropuerto Internacional El Dorado, and representatives from the Colombian Civil Aviation Authority (Aerocivil) and the National Infrastructure Agency of Colombia (ANI). Congratulations to the entire team at BOG for this outstanding achievement.
This award recognizes outstanding airport performance, acknowledging achievements in on time performance, mitigating passenger impact during delays, operational excellence, and connectivity and growth.
Luis Felipe de Oliveira, Executive Director and CEO, Exactly Consulting and Services SARL
We present the Airport Platinum Award to the world’s best airport, which has demonstrated operational excellence for the year.
El Dorado Bogota International Airport wins this inaugural award this year. This accolade recognizes the airport’s exceptional performance beyond on-time performance. We recognize the airport’s performance through a broader lens, including its ability to limit passenger impact during flight disruptions, operational excellence, and growth.
Airports play a crucial role in the aviation industry, serving as primary hubs for both airlines and passengers. Their attractiveness can significantly influence the success of airlines and the satisfaction of travelers. Several factors contribute to making an airport appealing to both these groups.
Operational Efficiency
For airlines, operational efficiency is a top priority. Airlines favor airports that offer quick turnaround times, minimal delays, and streamlined processes for baggage handling and refueling. Efficient airports help airlines maintain their schedules and reduce operational costs. Additionally, modern infrastructure, including well-maintained runways, ample gates, and advanced air traffic control systems, is essential. Airports that invest in these areas can handle more flights and larger aircraft, making them more attractive to airlines.
Cost-Effectiveness
Cost-effectiveness is another critical factor. Despite of the less than 4% in average represent the airport charges in the airlines cost basis, they can significantly impact an airline’s bottom line. Airports that offer competitive pricing for landing fees, parking, and other services are more likely to attract airlines. Additionally, incentives and discounts for new routes or increased traffic can be a strong draw. Connectivity and network capabilities also play a significant role.
Connectivity and Network
Connectivity and network capabilities also play a significant role.
Airports that serve as major hubs with extensive connectivity to other destinations are highly attractive.
Airlines prefer airports that can facilitate easy transfers for passengers and cargo, enhancing their network efficiency.
For passengers, accessibility and location are crucial. Airports situated close to city centers or well-connected by public transportation are more convenient and thus more attractive to travelers. Passengers also appreciate airports that offer a wide range of amenities, such as comfortable lounges, diverse dining options, shopping, and free Wi-Fi. These services enhance the overall travel experience, making the airport more appealing.
Safety and Security
Safety and security are paramount for passengers. Airports that implement stringent security measures and maintain a clean, safe environment are more likely to be favored by travelers. Additionally, friendly and efficient customer service can significantly enhance a passenger’s experience. Airports that prioritize customer satisfaction through helpful staff, clear signage, and efficient processes tend to attract more passengers.
Given the aging population and the need to make airports more inclusive, enhancing accessibility for people with disabilities is essential to better meet the needs of all passengers.
In conclusion, the attractiveness of an airport to both airlines and passengers rests on a combination of operational efficiency, infrastructure, cost-effectiveness, connectivity, accessibility, amenities, safety, and customer service.
Airports that excel in these areas are well-positioned to thrive in the competitive aviation industry, generating better revenues and improve the social and economic activity in the places served.
Report highlights
Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running
Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category
Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors
Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award
Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Sara Dhariwal, Senior Aviation Analyst, Lead Appraiser – Helicopters & AAM, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
The year 2024 was a mixed bag for the Advanced Air Mobility industry. Whilst some great advances were made by China’s EHang, the European OEMs faced challenges leading to the first high profile insolvency filings. To date, the Cirium team has registered order commitments for 26 different eVTOL OEMs. There are undoubtedly more out there. Consolidation among the vast number of competing companies appears inevitable, as they strive to position themselves as a frontrunner to operate in civil capacity.
Data coverage includes:
eVTOLs – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)
The eVTOL – UAM sector has generated the most activity in the market both in terms of the number of aircraft in development, and commitments received to date. Since the last update in October 2024, the sector has attracted 711 new order commitments. The space now has a total of just under 12,000 order commitments captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer. Eve Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to lead the sector with 2,950 and 1,552 commitments respectively.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 31st December 2024. *Volocopter filed for insolvency 26th December 2024
The global market for eVTOLs shows a varied regional distribution. Between the last update in October 2024 and 31st December 2024, APAC surpassed North America as the region with the most orders at a total of 3,914 taking a 32% share.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 31st December 2024
European eVTOL OEMs Face Challenges
Early 2024, the eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) industry gained momentum when Chinese company EHang reported successful completion of the first series of passenger carrying commercial demonstration flights by its EH-216S pilotless electric aircraft. The aircraft achieved certification by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), in quarter four of 2023. The company continued to make progress throughout the year and in November 2024, the OEM reported it had also completed debut passenger flights in Thailand.
Cirium Fleets Analyzer has registered 42 deliveries of the EH216 – 27 to Wencheng County Transportation Development Group, ten to Xishan Tourism and five to Shenzen Boling Holding Group – all for Sightseeing/Tourist usage.
Meanwhile, the European eVTOL industry faced some turbulence primarily linked to certification and funding challenges –
Volocopter – In June 2023, German-based Volocopter, along with Paris Airport operator Groupe ADP and the French Civil Aviation Authority, had announced their plan to offer eVTOL services to the general public during the 2024 Summer Olympics. It would make Paris the first European city to embrace this novel mode of transportation and was greatly anticipated right up until the event. However, certification issues hindered the plans, resulting in only demonstration flights taking place.
In a major blow, Volocopter filed for insolvency proceedings in Germany on December 26, 2024.
Rolls Royce – In November 2023, renowned UK-based engine OEM Rolls-Royce had announced its electric flight division was up for sale, as the company prioritized improving profits in its established jet engine business. A year later, in October 2024, Rolls-Royce declared the closure of its electrical business after failing to secure a buyer.
Vertical Aerospace – Following the divestment of Rolls-Royce’s electric flight division, UK-based Vertical Aerospace faced the challenge of finding a new engine partner. Despite this setback, the company remains determined and insists that they are on track, with ambitions remaining high. As reported on Cirium Dashboard in November 2024, under a new plan dubbed ‘Flightpath 2030’, Vertical intends to deliver at least 150 aircraft to customers by 2029 and break even in cash terms in 2030.
The OEM reportedly reached a rescue deal in 2024, with its biggest creditor, US-based Mudrick Capital, obtaining a 70% stake in the business.
At the start of January 2025, Vertical Aerospace announced it had become “the second company in the world” to achieve piloted thrustborne flight maneuvers with a full-scale vectored thrust eVTOL aircraft.
Lilium – Lilium stood out among eVTOL OEMs for debuting on US stock exchanges after merging with special purpose acquisition companies (SPAC), also known as “blank check companies.”
The OEM secured substantial commitments and funding, with some reports claiming a valuation at $3.3 billion at its peak. In July 2024, the OEM announced one of the largest commitments in the eVTOL sector—an agreement with Saudia Group in July 2024 to acquire up to 100 eVTOLs.
However, in November 2024, following an unsuccessful bid to secure a further loan of EUR100 million from the German Government, Lilium’s principal German subsidiaries applied for self-administration proceedings. On Christmas Eve 2024, the OEM announced they had secured a buyer by a little-known entity called the Mobile Uplift Consortium, reportedly from Europe and North America. This acquisition preserves almost 80% of Lilium’s workforce.
While setbacks and challenges have plagued European eVTOL manufacturers, the industry as a whole continues to evolve.
However, undoubtedly the eVTOL industry will continue to face significant hurdles primarily relating to certification and funding, but also market positioning and scale of manufacturing.
In addition, many eVTOL OEMs rely heavily on government funding, which could be affected by geopolitical uncertainty as countries prioritize higher budgets for defense, potentially impacting incentives for electric aircraft.
The BBC raised the following question in an article published 15th November: “Given all the uncertainty and expense, you may wonder why investors put money into new electric aircraft in the first place”. Bjorn Fehrm, with a background in aeronautical engineering and ex-combat pilot for the Swedish Air Force, replied: “No one wanted to miss out on the next Tesla.”
Business Electric – Multi-Engine
In the business electric sector, there was a little less turbulence.
Electra’s EL-2 Goldfinch hybrid-electric short takeoff and landing (eSTOL) marked the first flight of an electric aircraft with a pilot onboard at NASA’s Langley Research Centre in July 2024. The eSTOL has received almost 1,350 order commitments, including from notable clients like the helicopter lessor Bristow Group. However, the identities of the majority of the source of order commitments remain undisclosed.
Aura Aero’s ERA have the second most order commitments at a total of 570. The OEM signed a co-operation agreement with Airbus Protect in May 2024. According to the OEM’s press release, by committing to the PAC, “Aura Aero will receive technical advice services from EASA, whilst helping to draft the generic elements to set the foundations of the future formal product certification basis”.
Meanwhile, Sweden’s Heart Aerospace unveiled its first full-scale X1 demonstrator of the company’s regional 30-passenger ES-30 aircraft and will fly this in 2025. The ES-30design has been revised into a hybrid-electric aircraft. The ES-30 has just over 530 order commitments.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 31st December 2024
The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us.
For the fourth year in a row, Delta Air Lines has clinched Cirium’s prestigious Platinum Award for Operational Excellence, underscoring the airline’s commitment to delivering superior on-time performance amidst the complexities of a global airline operation. This back-to-back recognition highlights Delta’s resilience, operational expertise, and dedication to ensuring a consistent, high-quality travel experience for passengers. Its full year on-time performance was 83.46% across 1,712,529 flights.
In 2024, Delta faced its share of industry-wide disruptions, including a significant technological setback caused by a worldwide software issue in July, affecting key operational systems. Despite this challenge and the criticism, Delta rebounded, showcasing their effective crisis management and the depth of their operational infrastructure. You must give credit where its due! The airline had rebounded with an on-time performance rate of 90.53% by October.
In the affected month, July, they dropped from the top spot in the North American category to third place and then recovered the following month to regain the top spot.
Through close collaboration with key hub airports and leveraging a highly talented team, Delta has once again demonstrated their industry leadership in both reliability and passenger satisfaction.
Continued Strategic Expansion
Delta’s approach to excellence isn’t just about numbers; it’s about a structured dedication to building an operation that passengers can trust. The airline’s fleet grew this year with the introduction of Airbus A330-900neo aircraft and placed an order for an additional 20 Airbus A350-1000 aircraft for delivery in 2026. This year alone, Delta launched an ambitious Latin American and Caribbean winter schedule, adding 35,000 seats across multiple routes— notable growth that bolstered its service footprint without compromising operational efficiency.
Outstanding Recovery Amidst a Challenging Summer
In July 2024, Delta’s operations were significantly impacted by a global disruption of Microsoft Windows software, caused by an update error by CrowdStrike, one of the world’s leading cybersecurity providers. The incident led to flight cancellations worldwide, and Delta, as a major user of the affected systems, bore the brunt of the issue with nearly 7,000 flights disrupted over five days. However, the airline demonstrated operational resilience and agility, recovering rapidly in August and maintaining leading on-time performance through September.
August and September: Delta’s Swift Return to the Top
The rapid recovery from July’s challenges was significant. By August, Delta was back on top in North America, achieving an impressive 80.9% on-time arrival rate, followed by an industry-leading 87.81% on-time performance in September. Even in the face of a difficult July, Delta managed to maintain a completion factor of 94.72%.
People Drive Delta’s Success
It’s no secret a big part of Delta’s strong on-time performance is a direct result of the dedication, expertise, and teamwork of its employees. The airline’s accomplishments reflect a workforce unified by a shared commitment to operational excellence, guided by the mantra: “safe, clean, and on time with bags.” Every Delta team member contributes to maintaining the airline’s reputation as a leader in reliability and customer satisfaction.
This performance is driven by Delta’s ongoing investment in its people. Comprehensive training programs, performance-aligned incentives, and a culture that prioritizes safety and punctuality equip employees to consistently deliver high-quality service. By fostering collaboration and a shared sense of purpose, Delta ensures its workforce is prepared and motivated to uphold the airline’s high standards, even in challenging circumstances.
Moreover, Delta’s close partnership with its hub airports, like Atlanta, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Salt Lake City, has been integral to its success.
Cirium’s monthly airport performance data underscores how these hubs contribute to Delta’s ability to run an efficient, customer-centric operation.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Delta’s Operational Excellence?
Reflecting on Delta’s achievements, Ed Bastian, Delta’s CEO, and Dan Janki, CFO, have attributed this year’s success to the airline’s disciplined focus on innovation and its team’s relentless pursuit of excellence. The airline’s commitment to learning from disruptions, strengthening operational protocols, and investing in cutting-edge technology positions it to maintain its role as a leader in airline reliability.
Congratulations to the entire Delta team for their exceptional performance in 2024. With its continued investments in people, processes, and technology, Delta Air Lines is once again setting the benchmark for what operational excellence can look like in the airline industry, inspiring others with its enduring commitment to delivering a world-class travel experience.
Report highlights
Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running
Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category
Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors
Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award
Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
London, 14 January 2025: Cirium Ascend Consultancy, part of the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, Cirium, has once again landed Airline Economics’ prestigious title of ‘Appraiser of the Year’ at an award ceremony last night.
This marks the tenth win for Cirium Ascend Consultancy, demonstrating its unparalleled expertise within aviation consultancy and underlining its unwavering commitment to excellence, transparency and accuracy.
The annual award was presented to Rob Morris, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, at the Airline Economics Aviation 100 Global Leaders Awards 2025 in Dublin, Ireland, which celebrates the best companies, individuals and transactions in the aviation finance and leasing sector.
2025’s landmark win makes it the first time a single firm has won the title 10 times, recognising Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s invaluable insights that have shaped the strategies of key players in the industry.
Voters of this year’s award praised Cirium’s accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals that have provided the valuations and analysis needed to understand market outlook, evaluate risks, and identify opportunities.
Rob Morris, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “As we start 2025, we are humbled to have been named ‘Appraiser of the Year’ for the tenth time, reaching an impressive milestone in our history. Winning this prestigious accolade not only symbolises the trust and confidence our industry has in us, but is a tribute to the Ascend Consultancy team’s dedication and commitment throughout 2024. We have continued to strive for excellence, offering clients independent and transparent insights in a volatile year for OEMs, lessors, and the wider supply chain.”
Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s contributions extend beyond appraisals, encompassing various aspects of aviation analytics such as risk management, asset tracking, and sustainability evaluations. The firm’s innovative solutions, including CO2 emissions benchmarking and fuel consumption analysis, reflect its commitment to supporting the industry’s transition towards a more sustainable future.
With worldwide teams, and the industry’s largest team of ISTAT/ASA certified appraisers, Cirium Ascend Consultancy is poised to further drive industry analysis and improvement in 2025.
About Cirium Ascend Consultancy Cirium Ascend Consultancy, a division of Cirium, offers market-leading expertise to help inform and drive successful strategies in the commercial aviation industry. With a global team of seasoned consultants and analysts, Cirium Ascend Consultancy delivers comprehensive data, expert insights, and tailored services that directly impact strategic investments and open avenues for growth in aviation.
About Cirium Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth.
Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
The complimentary OTPAwardsAIhelps in the analysis of the Cirium 2024 On- Time Performance results
Users can analyse and review on-time performance scores, flights, completion factors, and uncover performance trends with ease
This is the first of several GenAI assistants that Cirium will be launching this year, with a OTP Improvement AI coming soon
Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, has unveiled the industry’s first generative AI assistant designed specifically for airline and airport on-time performance (OTP). OTP Awards AI is the first of Cirium’s generative AI assistants designed to supplement the analysis of Cirium’s 2024 On-Time Performance Review.
The AI assistant empowers anyone connected to aviation to dig deeper into the top performer results, review the on-time performance scores, tracked flights and completion factor insights, and uncover performance trends with ease. With this tool, users can query and compare their metrics with industry leaders to identify performance gaps.
“2025 will be a pivotal year for aviation as it seeks to enhance the use of analytics and automate workflows,” said Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO. “Cirium’s new AI assistants supports the growing need for data availability, which is essential for advanced, data- driven decision-making. The first of our assistants is designed to augment the analysis of the 2024 Cirium On-Time Performance Review and is the first of its kind in the market. This is only the beginning.”
Using the assistant, the user can uncover insights and identify airline and airport performance trends. The tool can show a carrier’s ability to recover from disruption and maintain a high level of on-time performance. One of the key features of the OTP Awards AI is its ability for airlines and airports to compare their performance with that of their peers. The OTP Awards AI is the first of several assistants that Cirium will be releasing to the market this year.
Cirium’s AI assistants are being created with a focus on accuracy and precision by connecting directly to Cirium’s industry leading data platform, which is considered to be the most comprehensive in the industry. Up next is the OTP Improvement AI, which is designed to take OTP analysis even further and pinpoint opportunities for operational efficiency, enhancing situational awareness and conducting deep disruption analysis.
Learn more about Cirium’s OTP Awards AI and to sign up to the OTP Improvement AI waitlist.
About Cirium Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth.
Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
As we commence 2025, the story is that every airline is desperate for new aircraft to meet growth or to replace older aircraft, or both. Many have very ambitious expansion plans. It seems an opportune moment, then, to consider how often airlines achieve goals for rapid expansion, and the factors that might help realise their dreams.
For this analysis, the fleet and backlog data includes passenger single-aisles and twin-aisles, from all manufacturers.
The airlines with the largest backlogs today are shown below, and then contrasted with the position a decade ago.
They are a mixture of the largest carriers, with a higher share of replacement demand, and airlines in fast-growing developing countries.
As at the end of 2024, there were 13,800 aircraft on order for airlines, compared to a total fleet of 23,600 passenger aircraft. Therefore the backlog-to-fleet ratio is around 0.58:1. Note that the order total includes just over 1,000 aircraft that are for unannounced airline customers, many of which are likely destined for Chinese carriers and lessors. Ten years ago, the fleet stood at 17,300, with a firm backlog of 10,300 aircraft. The ratio was therefore almost identical to today, at 0.59:1.
It is obvious that most of these airlines have backlog-to-fleet ratios well above the industry average, with several well above one. Thus, they have sufficient aircraft on order to replace the entire fleet in service today, or to support huge growth. Three of the listed carriers are based in India, which Cirium Ascend Consultancy expects to be the fastest growing market over the next 10-20 years, as discussed in previous thought leadership. Three are the major Chinese carriers, who have relatively small announced backlogs. The four largest US airlines are present, with quite modest backlog-to-fleet ratios between 0.28 and 0.69, plus low-cost carrier (LCC) Frontier Airlines, with a ratio of 1.19.
Wizz Air Group has the most ambitious plans, with a backlog-to-fleet ratio of 1.34.
Europe is represented by the three major LCCs, plus the Lufthansa Group. Within these, Wizz Air Group has the most ambitious plans, with a backlog-to-fleet ratio of 1.34. In contrast, Ryanair has a relatively small backlog, and is planning on slower growth over the next few years. Turkish Airlines, including its subsidiary Ajet, has the seventh largest backlog.
There are two Middle East carriers in the ranking. These are Emirates, and Saudia Group (including its LCC subsidiary Flyadeal). Although outside the top 20, the combined order backlogs for Qatar Airways, Riyadh Air, Flydubai, Air Arabia, Etihad and Flynas now amount to nearly 700 aircraft, leading to concerns about future overcapacity in the region.
The remaining three carriers are in Southeast Asia, and are primarily seen as LCCs. Their order backlogs have largely been in place since before Covid, and have seen several deferrals and order restructurings.
A review of these airlines and the history of the Gulf connector airlines may be useful to understand the context of airline ‘mega-orders’ and the nature of rapidly-growing markets.
The situation a decade ago was not altogether different to today. IndiGo is there, and has seen its fleet more than quadruple since 2014, from 88 to 382 aircraft. The four US Majors were listed, as were two of the Chinese ‘Big 3’, the Lufthansa Group, and Turkish Airlines. There were two airlines in Latin America, not represented today. This market has seen considerable upheaval and airline bankruptcies during Covid.
What stands out is Lion Air and AirAsia Groups had the largest backlog in 2014, in terms of aircraft units. They had backlog-to-fleet ratios of 3.54 and 2.03 respectively, in anticipation of huge market growth. Both companies, but especially AirAsia had plans to grow their brands across the region, using JVs or minority stakes in multiple countries.
The second highest ratio was Norwegian, which had similar ambition to break out of Norway to expand across Europe, and to launch long-haul services.
It is well-documented how the latter plan brought the airline down, but it also struggled to compete with the bigger players.
The three Gulf carriers were all present in the table in 2014. At the time, Emirates, Qatar and Etihad had a combined fleet of 450 aircraft, with 685 on backlog. Flydubai, since merged into the Emirates Group added a fleet of 88, with 127 on order. Thus, the combined backlog-to-fleet ratio was around 1.5, signifying how each carrier aimed to continue growing rapidly.
Case Study – Emirates
Emirates had a fleet of 219 passenger aircraft in 2014, being easily the largest of the Middle East airlines. It had grown rapidly, and its hub at Dubai International Airport (DXB) was seen as becoming full around 2015-2020. Dubai had announced plans for a massive new airport, now known as Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International (DWC) in 2005. Construction started in 2007, with the first freight service landing in 2010, and the passenger terminal in 2013.
The original DWC plan envisaged it becoming the hub for Emirates by 2018, with an eventual capacity of 150 million passengers and six runways.
This was to support plans to grow the airline to a fleet of 500-600 aircraft.
Things changed in 2011, however. It was decided to expand DXB to handle 90 million passengers. DWC growth was slowed, with it set to support Emirates switching its hub around 2025 instead. DXB handled 87 million passengers in 2023, and will exceed 100 million in 2025. However, DWC expansion is back on the rails, with the June 2024 announcement that it will replace the city’s existing gateway by 2034. All operations will move to the new airport, with plans for passenger facilities capable of handling 260 million passengers a year.
So, what has all this meant for Emirates and its competitors? The airline’s fleet has hardly grown since 2015, after having trebled in the preceding 10 years. Covid-19 had a major impact, with Emirates relying on long-haul international traffic. Airframer issues have impacted its plans too, with Airbus unwilling to further develop the A380, and Boeing suffering interminable delays on the 777X. It has been able to expand capacity somewhat, by use of larger aircraft.
Airlines often plan on the basis of growing faster than the market average. Airline A may plan on gaining market share, or capturing more transfer traffic. However, so might Airline B and Airline C. The Middle East has not seen rapid GDP growth over the past decade, and remains geo-politically unstable. However, collectively, airlines were successful in building transfer hubs and also stimulating some local traffic and inbound tourist visitors. The success of Dubai led to Qatar and Abu Dhabi aiming to replicate this, with Bahrain and Oman looking to expand too. Today, Saudi Arabia is investing heavily in promoting itself and its airlines seek to expand rapidly.
Back in 2013, as well as Emirates’ plan to double its fleet, Etihad wanted to triple its fleet by 2026, and Qatar was looking ahead to the 2022 World Cup. LCC competition was expanding from Air Arabia, and locally Flydubai was independent of Emirates.
Chart 4: Middle East Airline Fleet Expansion 2014-2024
Perhaps the biggest threat was to come from Turkish Airlines. It has a huge home market, offers shorter elapsed times from Europe to much of Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and was building airport capacity. Turkish Airlines had a fleet of 231 aircraft in 2013, and had just placed orders for 212 new aircraft. Its long-term plan was a fleet of 421 aircraft in 2021. It has largely achieved this. Despite some setbacks, it had a fleet of 440 by January 2024, when it outlined a Group plan to reach 950 aircraft by 2033.
Emirates has also seen growing competition from Indian and Chinese carriers on the Europe-Asia market, but has perhaps benefitted from capacity reductions from other Asian airlines, such as Thai, Malaysian, and Garuda.
This example shows how much can change in 10 years. External shocks and local economic upsets have played a part, but competition with other hubs, with other existing airlines, and the entry of new LCCs have all affected growth plans, with the result that many aircraft on order in 2013-14 have never been delivered. Plans must adapt, and Emirates has certainly been successful in doing this, including co-ordinating better with Flydubai. The Emirates Group delivered a solid profit in 2024, in contrast to many Middle East airlines, showing that rapid growth and shiny new planes do not necessarily go hand-in-hand with market success.
In the second part of this Team Perspective, we will discuss Southeast Asia, and consider what other factors influence order backlog developments.
Mexico’s flag carrier topped the global category, followed by Saudia, and Delta Air Lines
Regional Winners Include: Copa Airlines (Latin America), Delta Air Lines (North America), Iberia Express (Europe, and Low-Cost Airline), Japan Airlines (Asia-Pacific), and FlySafair (Middle East and Africa)
Riyadh King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, today announced the winners of its 2024 On-Time Performance Review, celebrating airlines and airports that excelled in on-time and operational performance.
Cirium’s Annual report is the gold standard for global airline and airport performance analytics. An on-time flight is defined as a flight that arrives within 14:59 minutes of the scheduled gate arrival time. Airports measure punctuality as departing flights within 14:59 minutes of their scheduled departure time.
Mexico’s Flag Carrier Tops Global Rankings
Aeromexico claimed the prestigious title of the most On-Time “Global Airline” in 2024, achieving an impressive On-Time performance rate of 86.70%. Saudia followed closely as the runner-up with 86.35%, while Delta Air Lines secured third place with 83.46%, continuing to showcase its operational reliability on the world stage.
Cirium’s Annual Review also acknowledges the operational excellence of airlines across the world, with five regional awards. Iberia Express, member of the International Airlines Group, had success as both the most On-Time airline in Europe, and the most On-Time Low-Cost airline globally. Japan Airlines ranked first within Asia-Pacific, just slightly ahead of All Nippon Airways.
Delta Air Lines continued its dominance in North America, while Copa Airlines achieved a landmark 10th win in Latin America. FlySafair also won most On-Time airline in the Middle East and Africa. The full tables of results by region and category are presented below.
Riyadh’s King Khalid Airport Takes Top Honors in the Global Airport Category
In the Airport categories, Riyadh King Khalid International Airport, the gateway to Saudi Arabia’s capital, claimed this year’s prestigious title of the most On-Time “Global Airport” with an impressive 86.65% of flights departing on time. The Middle Eastern hub further distinguished itself by securing victory in the ‘Large Airport’ category, outperforming top contenders from around the world.
Special Recognition of Operational Excellence: The Cirium Platinum Awards
Delta Air Lines topped the table for a fourth consecutive year, landing Cirium’s Platinum Award for global operational excellence. This prestigious accolade comes as the Atlanta-based airline continues to be praised for its unwavering commitment to operational performance.
The Platinum award considers the complexity of the carrier’s network, volume of flights, and the ability to limit the impact of flight disruptions on passengers over the entire year.
The airline was recognized for its on-time performance over the course of 2024 at 83.46%, on more than 1,712,529 total flights in 2024.
This year, Cirium also presented its first annual Platinum Award to a global airport, with El Dorado International Airport in Bogotá, Colombia receiving this prestigious award. The Airport Platinum Award considers a broader range of factors including the impact of delays on passengers, the duration of disruptions, operational complexity, and the airport’s appeal, with a particular focus on growth. This holistic approach highlights excellence across multiple dimensions, setting a new benchmark in airport performance evaluation.
Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO, said: “In an industry defined by operational complexity, we are extremely proud to be celebrating the airlines and airports who have provided customers the most on-time flights and best performance in 2024, acknowledging their operational excellence.”
“2024 was a difficult year for airlines, facing a large-scale IT outage, and unseasonable and severe weather patterns. Despite these challenges, these airlines and airports have worked tirelessly to ensure their customers have a smooth journey and reach their destination on-time.”
“We extend our congratulations to all the winners of this year’s On-Time Performance Review, each of whom has set new standards in operational excellence. A special recognition goes to Delta Air Lines for continuing their outstanding winning streak with Cirium’s Platinum Award for airlines, Copa Airlines for achieving its 10th title as Latin America’s most On-Time airline, Iberia Express for its consistent performance as Europe’s most On-Time airline, and Bogotá El Dorado Airport for securing Cirium’s first-ever Platinum Award for an airport.”
Now in its 16th year, the Cirium On-Time Performance Review remains the definitive benchmark for monitoring global airline operational performance. Powered by Cirium’s vast and impartial data—sourced from over 600 real-time feeds, including airlines, airports, global distribution systems, and civil aviation authorities—it offers a thorough and objective view of the industry. The program is further strengthened by the guidance of an independent advisory board composed of seasoned industry experts with decades of experience.
Notes to editors *An on-time flight is defined as a flight that arrives within 15 minutes of the scheduled gate arrival. For an airport, it is defined as departing within 15 minutes of its scheduled departure.
About Cirium Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth.
Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
According to Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, Santa Claus has again set the ultimate benchmark for operational excellence in aviation by orchestrating an unparalleled global itinerary this Christmas Eve. Covering approximately 1.6 billion homes in just 24 hours, he navigates a meticulously planned route, balancing speed, accuracy, and seasonal cheer. With an estimated cruising velocity of 2,900 kilometers per second—a pace far exceeding conventional aircraft—Santa’s sleigh transforms into a marvel of Christmas engineering. His system is further optimized by the 24-hour rotation of Earth, strategically leveraging 39 distinct time zones to tactically extend his delivery window for maximum efficiency. This precise synchronization ensures phenomenal on-time performance and operational excellence.
What powers this remarkable operation goes beyond mere speed; Santa’s sleigh is equipped with cutting-edge magical enhancements. Incorporating stardust propulsion and quantum temporal manipulation, his sleigh defies the barriers of time and physics. Meanwhile, his team of highly trained reindeer, led by the luminous Rudolph, ensures flawless navigation through unpredictable weather conditions. Cirium EmeraldSky’s calculations reveal that Santa’s sleigh operates with zero CO2 emissions. Through the seamless integration of age-old magic and visionary innovation, Santa maintains his legendary on-time performance, securing his title as the unrivaled titan of holiday aviation.
With that, we are excited to announce that for over 1,700 years running, Santa and his crew have once again achieved 100% On-Time Performance! Congratulations to the entire North Pole crew for everything you do to contribute to this remarkable achievement!
Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
The Virgin Australia Regional Airlines (VARA) order for eight Embraer E190-E2s in August represents a new turn in the Australian mining Fly-In Fly-Out (FIFO) market. For decades this market has relied on the use of older, used aircraft for low utilisation operations. These new aircraft will be used to replace its remaining Fokker 100s.
Western Australia is a key region for mineral extraction (including iron ore, nickel-copper and gold) and there are numerous mining sites in the outback, which rely on air connections to fly workers in and out, usually to Perth. An example is Christmas Creek Mine, which operates a Fokker 100 daily on a 1 hour 40min flight from and to Perth. Airstrips can have paved or unpaved runways with usually just an apron and minimal facilities.
These FIFO flights mainly use regional jets, with some Airbus A319/A320 and De Havilland Canada Dash 8 operations as well.
Large Passenger Regional Jet Fleet in Australia
Source: Cirium Core
The large-sized regional jet fleet in Australia has grown from around 80 a decade ago to over 100 today. They are used on a mix of scheduled services and regular FIFO charter contracts. The Fokker 100 has been the core of this fleet, operated by Alliance Airlines, Network Aviation as well as VARA. The fleet peaked at 56 during 2018 but is down to 43 now., mainly as VARA has reduced its fleet from 21 aircraft to seven. Network Aviation, owned by Qantas and operating as QantasLink on scheduled and charter routes, operates 14, alongside Airbuses and one E190.
Indeed, Australia has become an important market for used E190s.
Alliance, which uses 21 Fokker 100s and 10 Fokker 70s, has been active in building its E190 fleet, having acquired 67, first with ex American and Copa aircraft. It is in the process of taking 30 ex-JetBlue aircraft by mid-2026 from AerCap. Not all of these will enter service, as it has been selling some surplus airframes and engine cores, after harvesting for engines and spare parts. Alliance currently has 30 in service and operates both FIFO and for QantasLink, with Qantas having a part share in the carrier.
National Jet Express has also expanded its E190 fleet to seven, having replaced its BAe 146s.
The Australian market continues to provide opportunities for more E190s as Fokker 70/100 replacements, while the introduction of the E190-E2 may indicate a good long-term future for newer generation aircraft too.
African aviation is experiencing remarkable growth, as detailed in Africa’s Skies in Focus, a new report released today by Cirium, the most trusted source of aviation analytics. Several factors have converged to fuel this rapid growth, including robust government support, increased investment, and a rising demand for air travel.
“African carriers and airports have among them global leaders, and that is not hyperbole. Look at the breadth and development of the Ethiopian Airlines network, or the operational excellence of Safair. That’s African aviation today, with more exciting developments on the way,” said Mike Malik, Chief Marketing Officer of Cirium.
Safair, the South African airline, excels at on-time performance, a key driver of customer satisfaction and a measure of overall operational performance. In 2024, the airline is the undisputed leader in the Middle East and Africa, and a strong performer among the global Low-Cost Carriers.
Passenger traffic in Africa surpassed pre-pandemic numbers in 2023 when total passenger traffic reached 161 million, compared to 144 million in 2019. The busiest airports on the continent are Cairo, Johannesburg, and Cape Town. African-flagged carriers maintain the lion’s share of capacity there, whose fleets are set to more than double by 2043, as detailed in the report.
About Cirium Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth.
Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
Richard Evans, Senior Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
Most of the largest airlines have reported their quarter three (Q3) results over the past few weeks. These numbers are, by definition, backward looking, but the commentary around the press releases is usually informative about the market environment in general, with some useful data on the near-term outlook.
A few words of explanation about the below chart. The airlines listed are the 10 largest in each region, by revenue, that issue quarterly or bi-annual results in a timely manner. The figures are operating margin (EBIT), with the colours showing the change in relation to the same period in 2023. At the bottom, there is a simple arithmetic average of the 10 airlines’ results, with the colour giving a rough guide to how healthy this profit level is. It is worth remembering that, historically, airlines have exhibited very slim profit margins. According to IATA, the best year for airline profits was 2015, with an operating margin of 8.5%. It forecasts 2024 to achieve 6% margin.
Latest Airline Financial Results Show a Mixed Picture
Source: Airline announcements, Cirium Core, Cirium Ascend Consultancy analysis. * unweighted Airlines: Green = better than same period last year, Red = worse, Amber = within +/- 1%. Regional averages: Green = >7%, Amber = 1-7%, Red = <1% or loss making
At first glance, the chart looks poor, with the majority of airlines being ‘red’. Several major airlines mentioned increased costs as being a contributory factor. In Asia, Singapore Airlines reminded that 2023 was an exceptional year, being the year of ‘rebound’ post-Covid, marked by very high passenger yields.
The US market generally saw lower margins than elsewhere, but there were major contrasts within the results.
In particular, the low-cost airlines struggled, with overcapacity and resultant yield pressures generally.
This trend has been brought to a head with the Chapter 11 filing for Spirit Airlines, which will remove some excess capacity – more of which later.
European airlines had also seen extremely high profitability in summer 2023. Things look worse this year, but the results are actually good when compared to historic averages. Note that SAS emerged from bankruptcy protection in August, and has not filed results for recent quarters.
In China, one might expect to see better profits, given the strong traffic recovery this year, and the recovery in international travel. However, the combined operating margin of the ‘Big 3’ state-owned airlines was just 1-2%. These airlines give no commentary on the market conditions in their stock exchange filings, but it is presumed that profitability is not their number one priority, with the rebuilding of capacity and networks being more of a driver. Anecdotally, it also appears they are poor at yield management and slow to react to market pressures.
Despite some headwinds in Q3, several airlines made more positive statements about the outlook for winter 2024-2025.
In Asia, several pointed to strong forward bookings, and the continued recovery in international traffic. European airlines also generally made upbeat comments on bookings and passenger demand. The story in the US is a little different, with airlines pointing to better capacity management, with several having lowered their capacity growth plans, or even decided to cut year-on-year seat kilometres (ASKs).
The second chart shows Cirium forward schedule data for the coming season, comparing the latest schedule to that in place back in July. The US market has been highlighted, where capacity plans have been cut significantly, led by the low-cost sector. This includes adjustments made at JetBlue, Southwest Airlines and Spirit. The latter had already announced the removal of 23 A320ceo family aircraft from the fleet in a deal with GA Telesis.
Airline Capacity Plans for Winter 2024-2025
Source: Cirium schedules data
Back in July, global capacity for Q4 was up 8.5% over 2023. This has now fallen to 6.5%, even though the July forward schedule still had some airlines with incomplete data. The US airlines have driven this change, as well as those in Latin America. US capacity in December 2024 was due to expand by 6.3% year-on-year, but this has now been cut by more than half, with the latest schedule only up 2.8% over 2023. The accompanying table summarises US airline capacity, by carrier. All carriers except Southwest and Allegiant have cut growth plans, but the absolute figures for December now show a marked contrast between the three largest airlines and the low-cost sector.
US Airline Capacity Growth (December 2024 vs. December 2023)
December 2024 ASKs (as at July)
December 2024 ASKs (as at November)
United
9.7%
6.0%
American
8.0%
4.1%
Delta
9.8%
6.3%
Southwest
-5.2%
-5.1%
Alaska
9.4%
2.9%
JetBlue
-0.7%
-1.3%
Spirit
-0.2%
-17.8%
Frontier
15.1%
2.1%
Allegiant
15.7%
16.2%
Slower capacity growth is undoubtedly a positive for airlines over the coming quarters. Some of this is due to the continued issues with Pratt & Whitney GTF-powered aircraft, where the stored fleet of over 600 A320/A321neos would add around 1.5% to global capacity if they were fully utilised. This, combined with a lack of new deliveries by Boeing, is certainly a factor in airlines’ plans at present, but may provide a bonus for airline investors as we enter 2025.
