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  • Business Jet Deliveries Set for 11% Growth in 2025

    Daniel Hall
    Daniel Hall

    Daniel Hall, Senior Valuation Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    This piece follows analysis shared within our 14 May 2025 market update webinar: available to watch on-demand.

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy produces annual new delivery forecasts across the commercial, helicopter and business jet markets. In terms of new production, the helicopter and business sectors look to be entering growth mode once again, leaving supply chain woes behind us. For business jets, we believe some 8,700 new aircraft will be handed over in the following 10 years (2025-2034). This is driven by an 11% climb this year alone, driven by new types and product ramp-ups. The following analysis discusses this, and concludes with some thoughts on forecast risks.

    The below chart presents our annual forecast, split by market size segment/category.

    Chart 1: Cirium Ascend Consultancy forecast: new business jet deliveries 2025-2034

    Source: Cirium Ascend Consultancy forecast. Business turboprops not included.

    Here are some key takeaways from our latest forecast.

    Firstly, we expect new deliveries to increase by 11% this year. That is some growth, and we do admit that our forecast did not reach its target last year, owing to production strikes and a slow ramp-up of new products. But commentary from the OEMs suggests that supply chain issues are easing and with new product ramp-ups (such as Gulfstream’s G700 and Dassault’s Falcon 6X), and growth by Textron and Embraer, we feel confident that an 11% improvement will be achieved through 2025.

    Secondly, following this growth year, we forecast a flattish annual growth of approximately 1% thereafter.

    Comparing the next five years with the previous five translates to an overall 22% growth (equating to around 800 units), but almost half of this comes from the long-range category, which we forecast to grow deliveries by 31% alone.

    The light sectors are showing notably little growth over recent history. Honda’s in-development Echelon programme is a slight unknown in terms of production and market demand, but we would not expect Textron (and Embraer) to easily concede market share or units to this.

    Not only is the long-range sector contributing to growth, but it also underpins our forecast by units (29%), and value, at a notable 63% share.

    Chart 2: Forecast split by size sector: deliveries forecast by units and share

    Source: Cirium Ascend Consultancy forecast. Business Turboprops not included.

    Embraer is a growth OEM of note, and our forecast has this manufacturer moving into third position by units. Gulfstream and Dassault have notable product ramp-ups. Although the G650 will see production end this year, the Savannah-based OEM will be keen to get G700s out the door (which we forecast to be delivered at a rate of 3.5 for every G800 unit produced).

    But overall, towards the end of the 10-year period, it is clear that to unlock more production, we need labour to ease and new innovative products to enter the scene. Over 15% of the forecast will be driven by new or to-be-launched types. Delays to their development may shift our forecast to the right.

    The chart below adds our value of deliveries to the forecast. The impact of higher priced aircraft can clearly be seen in the large segment. Together, Gulfstream, Bombardier and Dassault alone are responsible for three-quarters of new delivery backlog value, in 2025 dollars at our Full-Life Base Values. Some $25 billion of business jet aircraft are expected to be delivered this year. That is quite a large financing need even in an industry where it is said that around half of new aircraft purchases are self-financed by cash.

    Chart 3: Forecast split by size sector: deliveries forecast by value and share

    Source: Cirium Ascend Consultancy forecast. Values are Full-Life Base Value. Business Turboprops not included.

    An Industry Facing Plateau or Structural Change?

    Why do we have lower forecast growth after 2025? We can look at the lack of new aircraft development after the Falcon 10X and Honda Echelon (both due in the 2027-2029 timeframe). We may have reached a development peak in terms of range, speed and cabin size, with current technology. Arguably a step change in new engine technology is needed to pivot the industry with something new. It could be said that with conventional technology, we may only see notable annual growth by other world regions taking more deliveries, particularly those underpinned by strong high net worth individual (HNWI) growth (e.g., India, China).

    Backlogs are likely to stay fairly flat through this year. The major manufacturers are currently reporting book-to-bill ratios of around 1:1 (meaning one order for each delivery). This maintains them at around two years of backlog, which we think manufacturers prefer for planning purposes. Most OEMs seem hesitant to increase production rates; of course we know some are capable of more production (based on past performance), but local labour constraints may be holding them back. Perhaps a structural change is in play, backlogs will be maintained, and we won’t move back to the days of highly competitive pricing and “white tail” risk.

    Forecast Risks, and 2025 So Far

    As of late May 2025, Q1 2025 new deliveries are 15% up on Q1 2024, which is impressive growth and looks supportive of our forecast projection. This has been driven by a range of factors, some discussed above (e.g., general product ramp-ups), but also by built and undelivered aircraft last year (G700 & Falcon 6X). Of interest were comments by Embraer that they are working to balance their delivery stream across the full year rather than their historically heavy weighting in Q4.

    There are risks, however. Tariffs have the ability to not only disrupt demand but also supply (of parts, raw materials). Many scenarios could play out, and the tariffs themselves are ever-changing. It may have been that a front-loading of deliveries helped a bump (before impacting an international transfer of an asset), but tariffs may later cause aircraft deferrals and we could see deliveries impacted in Q2 numbers.

    During the webinar, we discussed the growth of the fractional operator segment. This has undoubtedly benefitted the forecast for popular types in that segment, for instance, the Phenom 300, Citation Latitude, Challenger 3500 and Praetor series. Any curtailment of growth could impact the demand/supply balance for those models, impacting Bombardier, Cessna and Embraer. But likewise, brand loyalty is typically strong and higher-hours fractional users who want to go into full ownership are likely to stick with the same product they are used to experiencing, representing an opportunity for these OEMs.

    About Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s Business Jet Delivery Forecast

    • Our independent new delivery forecast is our opinion on business jet deliveries for the upcoming 20 years, broken down by manufacturer, type and size segment. We also provide the value of deliveries forecast.
    • The forecast can be bespoke, and go into greater levels of detail (including historical analysis, forecast methodology, commentary by size category/competitive landscape and OEM summary).
    • While the forecast above is for business jets only, we can offer services in the business turboprop marketplace.

    To request your copy of the Business Jet Delivery Forecast, enquire here.

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is available for expert advisory, aircraft, helicopter and engine valuations, as well as market commentaries across various asset classes. We have a team consisting of both ISTAT-certified and ASA-accredited appraisers spread across the globe with offices in North America, Europe and Asia. We are also able to provide ASA appraisals conforming to USPAP standards.

  • Cirium and AFRAA Partnership to Drive Growth in African Aviation

    London, 14 May 2025 – Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, has announced a strategic data partnership with the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) – the leading trade Association for African airlines. The partnership is aimed at enhancing analytical frameworks to be more comprehensive for the African air transport market and support growth across the sector in Africa.

    This collaboration comes at a pivotal time for African aviation. International passenger flights to and from Africa increased by 27% year-on-year in 2024, according to Cirium data, marking a significant recovery and expansion of regional connectivity. With access to Cirium’s scheduling, fleet, and market intelligence tools, AFRAA will enrich its data reporting to better support it’s  member airlines and drive sustainable growth across the continent.

    “International traffic to and from Africa is experiencing rapid growth, presenting a major opportunity for the continent’s airlines,” said Jeremy Bowen, CEO of Cirium. “By leveraging Cirium’s world-class data and AFRAA’s industry leadership, we’re enabling airlines to make smarter, faster, and more sustainable decisions that will shape the future of African aviation.”

    Cirium’s powerful analytics solutions, including Diio SRS Analyzer for strategic scheduling insights, Ascend Fleets Analyzer for fleet planning and sustainability initiatives, and the Cirium Dashboard for real-time market intelligence and expert analysis, will enhance AFRAA’s industry analysis and reporting. These insights enable airlines to operate more efficiently, respond quickly to market changes, and unlock new revenue opportunities.

    Speaking at the partnership announcement, AFRAA Secretary General, Mr. Abderahmane Berthé stated:

    “The use of data-driven tools is critical to providing intelligence to airlines, airports, governments, regulators and other industry stakeholders for decision-making that will sustain and boost aviation in Africa. Data is the cornerstone of decision-making. Partnering with Cirium accelerates our ability to meet data needs, ensuring we stay ahead in a rapidly evolving market.”

    This partnership aligns with AFRAA’s 2025 strategy to improve connectivity, reduce operational costs, boost sustainability, and drive digital transformation across Africa’s aviation sector.

    For Cirium media inquiries please contact media@cirium.com

    About Cirium
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, delivering powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial institutions. Cirium provides the clarity and intelligence needed to optimize operations, make informed decisions and accelerate revenue growth. Cirium is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business. For more information, visit www.cirium.com or follow Cirium on LinkedIn.

    About AFRAA
    The African Airlines Association (AFRAA) is the leading trade association of African airlines.  Founded in Accra, Ghana, in April 1968, and headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, AFRAA’s mission is to promote, serve African Airlines and champion Africa’s aviation industry. The Association envisions a sustainable, interconnected and affordable Air Transport industry in Africa where African Airlines become key players and drivers to African economic development. AFRAA membership cuts across the entire continent and includes all the major intercontinental African operators. The Association members represent over 85% of total international traffic carried by African airlines. Facebook, LinkedIn, X and YouTube.

    For more information, please contact: AFRAA: afraa@afraa.org

  • Saab 340A and B – the Tale of Two Lifecycles

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Eleni Maragkou, Valuations Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Same family, different tales. The Saab 340A and 340B, are at very different stages in their lifecycle. While the 340A is fading fast, the 340B powered by the General Electric CT7-9B engine continues to show signs of endurance in a tough regional market.  

    As of today, the in-service Saab 340 family fleet is around 160 aircraft, with approximately 180 having been retired. As shown in the graph below, the Saab 340B passenger fleet is almost evenly split between aircraft in-service and those in storage, highlighting that a sizable portion of the fleet is not in use. While the Saab 340A also has a significant portion of the fleet in storage, overall, it has a much smaller operational presence with only around 40 aircraft remaining in use. Although the proportion of retirements between the 340A and 340B are on a similar level, the 340Bs 85 retirements, are only 38% of its total fleet, however, given the large numbers of the 340B in storage, we would expect to see more of them retiring going forward.

    Figure 1. The current in service and storage fleet of Saab 340 (Fleets Analyzer, Cirium 2025)

    The Saab 340A is reaching the end of its useful life with only around ten passenger aircraft remaining in service. The challenge being there are very few CT7-5A engines left in the market. Engine shops do not prioritise that engine due to the lack of life limited parts and materials. With a limited operational future the variant is well within the sunset phase.

    But What Exactly is the “Sunset Phase”?

    For aircraft engines, it marks the final stage of an engine type’s life: declining demand, minimal parts support, higher maintenance costs, and a shrinking operator base marking the end of its commercial relevance. For the 340A, that time is the next two to three years.

    The CT7-9B engine on the other hand, remains operationally relevant, serving the Saab 340B Fleet exclusively. While the average age of the fleet for this type is 30 years old, the retirement trend for the Saab 340Bs is not yet substantial. Operators across North America and Canada continue to utilise the aircraft and the engines. The Half-Life Market Values for CT7-9B engines rose to over $600k in March 2025, with overhaul costs climbing to around $1m, driven by continued demand and availability constrains.

    Cargo conversions temporarily boosted interest in the -340B engine, though that trend has slowed according to multiple market sources. Viable conversion candidates are fewer, and some airframes require more maintenance than they are worth.

    The Verdict?

    Figure 2. A typical profile of the engine value life cycle (Cirium Ascend Methodology 2025)

    The graph in Figure 2.  shows the typical profile of the engine value life cycle,with the Saab 340A fleet reaching an average age close to 40 years old and few still in service, the CT7-5A is very much at the end of the retirement phase of the life cycle, sunsetting rapidly.

    On the other hand, the Saab 340B is still very much in the daylight, while not in the prime of its life it is far from obsolete. Considering recent value changes and fleet status of the 340B, this would place the CT7-9B in the secondary phase of the engine life cycle.

  • Data-Driven Operations Fuel Middle East Aviation Growth

    Navigating Disruption in a High-Growth Market

    The Middle East aviation sector faced significant operational disruptions in 2024, with severe weather events and geopolitical tensions leading to widespread delays and cancellations. Notably, Dubai International Airport was forced to cancel 31% of flights during historic flooding between April 15-17. The cost of these disruptions can be substantial, with the estimated cost of roughly 8% of airline revenues.

    Remarkable Passenger Growth

    Despite the disruptions that did occur in 2024, the region continued to grow at a remarkable rate.

    Air travel demand continued to soar for the Middle East, with passenger figures to the Middle East up 18% over 2019 and a 37% rise in revenues. 

    Major airports in Jeddah, Abu Dhabi, and Medinah saw the steepest rises, with traffic up 56% to King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah and up 65% to Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi.

    Operational Excellence and On-Time Performance

    Amid rising passenger volumes, a focus on operational excellence differentiated carriers like Oman Air, which led the region with an +90% on-time performance in 2024 arrivals. The airline has continued to operate with a high on-time arrival percentage even after it expanded its network and schedule.

    The Imperative for Data-Driven Operations

    Persistent disruption, particularly from unpredictable events like extreme weather, underscores the need for robust data analytics integration within airline and airport operations. Leveraging aviation data analytics enhances day-to-day situational awareness, aids disruption diagnosis, and streamlines workflows—from forecasting demand to optimizing staff and resource allocation. Airlines and airports using advanced analytics can respond faster and more effectively to disruptions, reducing costs, improving passengers’ experiences, and benchmarking their performance to inform future operational planning.

    The Road Ahead for Middle East Aviation

    As the Middle East region continues to invest in infrastructure and connectivity, digital transformation emerges as a critical strategy for sustaining growth and minimizing the cost of disruption. Adopting a data-driven approach allows organizations to optimize planning, drive efficiency, and ensure operational resilience.

    Industry professionals seeking actionable insights and strategies for leveraging data-driven aviation operations won’t want to miss Cirium’s Piyush Chawla in conversation with STR’s Sarah Duignan on the Global Stage at the Arabian Travel Market, Wednesday, April 30 2025 at 11:05 a.m.

  • Advanced Air Mobility – Snapshot April 2025

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    YIRU ZHANG
    Yuri Zhang

    Yiru Zhang, Senior Valuation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    The Cirium Ascend Consultancy team has seen continuing dynamic developments in the advanced air mobility sector since the beginning of the year. To date, the Cirium team has registered over 11,000 order commitments for 27 different eVTOL OEMs, reflecting a continued market interest despite the hurdles.

    Data coverage includes:

    MARKET GROUPINGMANUFACTURERTYPECOMMENT
    Regional Electric – SmallAura AeroERAProgram temporarily paused
    Regional Electric – SmallHeart AerospaceES-30
    Regional Electric – SmallLYTE AviationLA-44 Skybus
    Regional Electric – SmallMaeve AerospaceMaeve 01 
    Regional Electric – SmallJektaPHA-ZE 100
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAerofugiaAE200
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityARC Aero SystemsLinx P9 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityDufour AerospaceAero3
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityBETA TechnologiesALIA-250
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityManta AircraftANN2
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAscendance Flight TechnologiesAtea
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOverair IncButterfly
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityHorizon AircraftCavorite X7
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityPlanaCopterPlane CP-01
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityWisk Aero LLCCora
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityTCab TechE20 eVTOL
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityThe ePlane Companye200XNewly added
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEhangEH216
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEve Air MobilityEve
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityCrisalion MobilityIntegrity
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJaunt Air MobilityJourney
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityLilium GmbHLilium JetFiled for bankruptcy as of Feb 2025
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityArcher AviationMidnight
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOdys AviationOdys eVTOL
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAutoFlightProsperity 1
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJoby AviationS4
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySkyDriveSD-05
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySirius AviationSirius Jet
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityXTI Aircraft CompanyTriFan 600
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAMSL AeroVertiia
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloCityIn Insolvency proceeding as of Dec 2024
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloConnectIn Insolvency proceeding as of Dec 2024
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEhangVT-30
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVertical Aerospace Group LtdVX4
    eVTOL – UAV/UASBETA TechnologiesALIA-250c
    Business Electric – Single EngineVoltAeroCassio 330
    Business Electric – Single EngineBETA TechnologiesCX300
    Business Electric – Multi EngineEviationAlice
    Business Electric – Multi EngineBeyond AeroBYA-1Newly added
    Business Electric – Multi EngineBye AerospaceeFlyer 800
    Business Electric – Multi EngineElectraElectra eSTOL
    Business Electric – Multi EngineElectronElectron 5
    Business Electric – Multi EngineElflyNoemiNewly added
    Business Electric – Multi EngineAirflowM200
    Business Electric – Multi EngineMD AircraftMDA1 

    The eVTOL-Urban Air Mobility sector remains the most active segment of the market. The space now has a total of just under 11,000 order commitments and about 40 in-service EH216s captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer. The drop in total order commitments was largely caused by the cancellation of over 800 Lilium Jet and 140 VX4 order commitments. Eve Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to lead the sector with 2,950 and 1,400 commitments respectively.

    Source: Cirium fleets data

    The global market for eVTOLs shows a varied regional distribution. Since surpassing North America as the region with the most orders at the end of 2024, APAC remains its leading position, with a total of 3,777 order commitments, representing a 34% share.

    Source: Cirium fleets data

    Source: Cirium fleets data

    Latest Developments in Urban Air Mobility

    • Lilium filed for insolvency for the second time: ​In February 2025, German electric air taxi developer Lilium filed for insolvency for the second time, following a series of financial setbacks. The company’s German subsidiaries had in October 2024 entered insolvency after failing to obtain essential funding, including a €50 million loan guarantee from the Bavarian government.

    In January 2025, Lilium announced a new investor in Mobile Uplift – a consortium of investors from Europe and North America – which intended to acquire the operating assets of the subsidiaries Lilium GmbH and Lilium eAircraft GmbH. However, the acquisition failed and in February 2025, Lilium again filed for insolvency.

    Lilium GmbH was founded in 2015. The aircraft, the Lilium Jet, was powered by 36 electrical motors and was intended to accommodate six passengers and one pilot. The Lilium Jet’s entry into service was scheduled for 2026. Media reports indicate that the shutdown of operations affected around 750 employees.

    • Blade’s commuter helicopter service: In January 2025, Blade introduced a new commuter service offering $95 helicopter rides from Long Island and New Jersey to Manhattan’s West Side. This reflects the growing demand for urban air transport in major metropolitan areas such as New York City. Blade currently holds 50 order commitments for Beta Technologies’ ALIA-250 and Wisk Aero’s Cora. Additionally, Blade serves as a key target operator for numerous eVTOL OEMs and has established partnerships with several of them. The expansion of Blade’s routes could also provide benefits for the future adoption and operation of eVTOL aircraft.

    Multi-Engine Business Electric

    • Electra’s EL-2 Goldfinch hybrid-electric short takeoff and landing (eSTOL)continues to lead in this sector, with total order commitments of 1,348.
    • Aura Aero recentlypushed back its targeted entry into service for its ERA design from 2028 to “before 2030”. The ERA design is a hybrid using kerosene, rather than a fully electric aircraft.
    • Heart Aerospace successfully conducted initial ground tests of its ES-30 demonstrator in 2024’s third quarter. A maiden flight is scheduled for later this year. The ES-30 order backlog now stands at 532, reflecting continued interest in regional hybrid-electric aircraft solutions.
    • In February, Eviation Aircraft paused work on its nine-passenger Alice design as it sought new investment. The company has reportedly laid off 30 employees. Eviation chief executive Andre Stein told Geekwire that the temporary pause was necessary to focus on “identifying the right long-term partnerships to help us make electric commercial regional flight a reality”, adding: “We at Eviation are proud of what we have accomplished in advancing electric flight. This decision was not made lightly.”

    Source: Cirium fleets data

    Financial and regulatory challenges persist in the AAM sector, but the industry’s commitment to achieving commercial success remains strong. The next few years will be pivotal in identifying which OEMs can effectively overcome these obstacles and establish themselves as leaders in this rapidly evolving market.

    The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us.

    Sara Dhariwal

    Lead Appraiser – Helicopters & AAM

    Ascend analyst Tim Chun Hing Li
    Ascend analyst Tim Chun Hing Li

    Tim Chun-hing Li

    Aviation Analyst

    YIRU ZHANG
    YIRU ZHANG

    Yuri Zhang

    Senior Valuations Analyst

    Eric Tamang
    Eric Tamang

    Eric Tamang

    Valuations Analyst

  • How Trade Policy Shifts Are Shaping Global Aviation

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Joanna Lu
    Joanna Lu

    Joanna Lu, Head of Consultancy Asia, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Following the seismic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, which brought global travel to a near standstill, the industry is now facing a different kind of disruption — one with potentially longer-lasting consequences. The rise of trade protectionism and tariff actions in key economies is contributing to a broader shift in global dynamics that may reshape supply chains, travel patterns, and aviation strategies in the years ahead.

    Unlike Covid, which caused a sharp but time-bound crisis followed by a defined recovery path, the impact of trade-related policy shifts appears more gradual — and potentially more difficult to reverse. If these changes trigger a prolonged decoupling of global economies, they may leave a lasting mark on the structure of international aviation — from network strategies and passenger demand to fleet deployment and aircraft economics.

    The Legacy of Covid and a New Wave of Fragmentation

    In many ways, the current landscape is an extension of the lessons and adaptations triggered by Covid-19. The pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of overreliance on global systems. As a result, businesses and governments have become more cautious, and some of that caution is now being formalized into policy through tariffs, trade barriers, and revised sourcing strategies.

    This environment may be starting to create structural pressure points for aviation in two key areas:

    1. Passenger Travel: Premium Travel Redefined

    Corporate and traditional business travel continues to face scrutiny from cost-conscious companies. While premium travel demand overall has rebounded, much of this recovery appears to be driven by premium leisure rather than corporate activity — a trend noted by several airlines in the U.S. and Europe.

    However, real passenger traffic data from Cirium FM Traffic reveals that the share of passengers flying in premium cabins (First, Business, and Premium Economy) has not returned to pre-pandemic levels for most global network carriers — suggesting that corporate travel recovery remains uneven and fragile.

    Key observations:

    • Singapore Airlines (SQ) led the group in premium traffic share but peaked in 2022, with a decline through 2024.
    • Cathay Pacific (CX) saw a temporary bump in 2022, but premium share has returned to 2019 levels.
    • British Airways (BA) and Delta (DL) saw stable or declining shares, pointing to a structural shift in the premium travel mix.

    Chart: Premium Cabin Share of Total Traffic (2019–2024)

    Source: Cirium Core

    These trends suggest that while pricing and cabin revenue may have recovered, the volume of premium passengers remains below pre-Covid norms. This has important implications for network planning, cabin configuration, and loyalty program strategies.

    2. Air Cargo: A Shifting Geopolitical Footprint

    Air cargo demand is also evolving as global manufacturers reassess supply chains in light of geopolitical uncertainty. There is growing interest in “friendshoring” and “nearshoring” — particularly in the tech and automotive sectors — as companies seek to reduce overreliance on single-country sourcing models.

    For example, Apple’s expansion of manufacturing in India and Vietnam reflects a broader trend of diversifying away from China-centric production. While this has not yet resulted in major shifts in air cargo traffic flows, it signals a potential realignment of freight corridors toward new Asia–Asia and Asia–Middle East lanes.

    Gradual but Structural Change

    Structural changes such as these tend to unfold slowly, and their effects may only become fully visible in the data over time. However, early indicators — including shifts in premium travel composition and supply chain restructuring — suggest a gradual rebalancing of global aviation is already underway:

    • A pivot away from long-haul intercontinental traffic toward more regionalized operations
    • Increasing reliance on agile fleet strategies, particularly longer-range single-aisle aircraft
    • A growing need for scenario-based planning amid continued trade and policy fragmentation

    Chart: Average Stage Length (KM) – Scheduled Passenger vs. Cargo Flights (YE Apr 2019-2025)

    Source: Cirium Core

    Passenger flight distances are projected to increase modestly, reaching 1,480 km by YE April 2025 — slightly above 2019 levels. Cargo flights have shown more volatility but continue to maintain longer average stage lengths, indicating that major freight corridors remain active in the near term. These trends suggest that while the impact of tariff-driven fragmentation is still emerging, its eventual implications for route planning and aircraft deployment could be significant.

    Assessing Network Strategy: The Regional Pivot

    One way to observe strategic shifts in aviation is through changing network patterns. Cirium schedule data shows that several major carriers — including Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, and United Airlines — have increased the share of operations on routes under 5,000 km since 2021.

    This reflects a broader trend: in times of macro uncertainty, regional flying becomes a lower-risk, more manageable option. For Asia-based carriers especially, the data suggests a strategic pivot toward intra-Asia routes as a foundation for building resilience and capturing regional growth.

    For instance, Cathay Pacific reported a full-year profit of HK$9.9 billion in 2024, its second consecutive year in the black. A key factor was its strengthened focus on regional connectivity, particularly with mainland China and other parts of Asia. By increasing the proportion of flights under 5,000 km, Cathay improved operational efficiency and supported scalable recovery — even as long-haul markets remain volatile.

    Chart: Scheduled Regional Flights Share (<5000km) by Selected Network Airlines

    Source: Cirium Core

    This shift is not just tactical — it is strategic:

    • Regional routes allow airlines to adapt quickly to regulatory or demand changes
    • They come with lower operational costs
    • They align with the growth of intra-regional trade and tourism

    Low-cost and regional carriers may be best positioned to benefit, while long-haul carriers may face continued pressure to right-size networks and rethink fleet composition.

    Aircraft Implications: Deployment, Not Just Demand

    While it may take time for these shifts to be fully reflected in aircraft valuations, their operational implications are already emerging:

    • Single-aisle aircraft, especially long-range variants, are becoming increasingly relevant due to their flexibility across both domestic and regional international routes.
    • Widebody aircraft, particularly older models, may struggle to achieve consistent deployment without a clear long-haul recovery.

    Even in the absence of clear pricing trends, there is a growing need for conservative long-haul fleet planning and greater adaptability in deployment strategies.

    Looking Ahead: Key Questions for Industry Stakeholders

    The shift toward a more fragmented and regionalized world raises critical questions:

    • How diversified is your network strategy across regional and long-haul markets?
    • Are your fleet plans agile enough to adapt to a prolonged long-haul demand recovery?
    • How are trade policy shifts influencing your procurement, partnerships, and alliances?

    In an era of policy divergence and evolving alliances, the ability to adapt will increasingly define competitive advantage. Aviation strategies must reflect not only traveler behavior but also broader political and economic signals.

    At Cirium, we continue to track these evolving patterns through flights, schedule, and fleet data. While some trends will take time to fully materialize, the signals today point to a future where regional agility may matter more than global reach, and where strategic flexibility becomes a core competitive differentiator.

    We support our clients with scenario-based analysis and data-led insights to help them navigate uncertainty and plan with confidence.

  • Copenhagen Optimization, Azinq, & Cirium Advance Airport Ops

    London, 8 April 2025: Aviation analytics firm, Cirium, has entered into an integration partnership with two leading airport technology providers, Copenhagen Optimization and Azinq, to enable airport operations and border control to adopt enhanced data integration and automation, driving multiple operational efficiencies.

    This new agreement brings together Cirium’s advanced analytics with Copenhagen Optimization and Azinq’s leading technology to improve airport efficiency, leading to time and resource savings and an enhanced passenger experience.

    This out-of-the box solution enables airports and customs, border protection and security agencies to seamlessly integrate Cirium’s proprietary schedules, flight data and fleet information into their operating systems. By integrating the data, businesses can accelerate data-driven decision-making to ensure smooth airport operations, a more reliable service and suitable resource planning.

    Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO said, “We’re thrilled to be partnering with Copenhagen Optimization and Azinq, marking the first integration partnership of its kind for Cirium. Together, we will enable airports and customs and border control agencies to make more informed decisions at speed through the combination of innovative software and Cirium’s advanced analytics – saving valuable time for everyone involved”.

    Over the past few years, global airports have continued to implement innovative technologies and strategies across their infrastructures to enhance operations. The uptake and implementation of such technologies, however, has been slow, meaning airport operations will hugely benefit from this type of partnership.

    Airports that embrace this integrated and connected way of using data analytics can implement various solutions to more effectively manage operations – running passenger predictions, automating data for resource planning, monitoring airport-specific flight data to mitigate disruption and more. 

    The coming together of the three companies, expands upon the existing collaboration between Copenhagen Optimization and Azinq for airport flight schedule management and seasonal planning solutions.

    “Optimizing airport operations requires access to the most precise and timely data available,” said Kasper Hounsgaard, CoCEO and founder of Copenhagen Optimization.

    “By integrating Cirium’s trusted flight schedules into Better Airport®, we empower airports to make better decisions, reduce operational disruptions, and enhance the overall passenger experience. Together with Cirium and Azinq, we are committed to provide airports with an unparalleled level of forecasting accuracy and efficiency.”

    Chris Taylor, Azinq CEO said: “Our approach, through our Airport Hive ® suite, has always been to facilitate seamless integration, flexibility and scalability in airport operations. By collaborating with Cirium we can take this even further, delivering the industry’s leading analytics through our dynamic operational platform”. This builds on our already stronger partnership with Copenhagen Optimization and our strong emphasis on partnerships and integration.

    Copenhagen Optimization and Azinq will seamlessly integrate Cirium’s data and analytics into their software solutions through connecting to the Cirium Sky Warehouse and Cirium Sky APIs.

    To find out more about integrating Cirium analytics through data cloud and APIs visit: cirium.com/analytics-services/data-cloud-api/

    For Cirium media inquiries please contact media@cirium.com

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

    Copenhagen Optimization
    A global software-as-a-service platform with a passion for making airport operations simple and efficient. The software solution Better Airport® is a cloud-based solution that uses data and a combination of AI and advanced mathematical algorithms to bring clarity and confidence to plans, data, and complex decision-making, empowering airports to better predict, operate, and optimize. Better Airport is currently deployed and live in operations in more than 40 medium and large airports globally, spanning across USA, Canada, Europe, Asia, and now also Australia.

    Azinq
    Azinq’s “Airport Hive” is a cloud-based, modular SaaS suite of airport operational products designed to replace traditional Airport Operational Databases (AODB). Airport Hive modules offer rich functionality for managing flight schedules, operational flight information, fixed resources, reference data, reporting and aeronautical billing. Airport Hive is built using event driven microservices architecture.  Therefore, all data is available through real-time data streaming and REST APIs, enabling systems to connect and easily share data effortlessly.

  • Capacity Between Canada and the U.S.; Bookings Are Down

    Mike Malik, Chief Industry Officer, Cirium

    Mention “snowbirds” to a Floridian and most will think of Canadians. In South Florida, that long-standing seasonal migration is so familiar that some neighborhoods even bear French Canadian street names.

    But economic headwinds and political uncertainty have begun to reshape one of the world’s busiest cross-border air markets. Canadian carriers, in particular, are adjusting their schedules — and Florida is feeling the impact. And, the bookings appear to be taking a hit.

    U.S.–Canada: A Vital Transborder Corridor

    The United States remains the top international destination for Canadian travelers, while Canada ranks just behind Mexico for U.S. outbound passengers, according to Cirium data. The transborder market connects nearly 190 city pairs, including high-frequency routes like Toronto to New York City, which alone sees roughly 4,000 daily seats.

    Using Cirium’s Diio airline planning system, we reviewed airline schedule changes for April through June 2025. The analysis compares data as filed on January 31, 2025, with updated schedules from late March. And, using Cirium’s Diio Advance Bookings tool, we analyzed forward bookings — for which there are some very important caveats.

    Scheduled Capacity Down Since January

    Overall, carriers are offering 4.4% fewer seats between Canada and the U.S. for April–June 2025 than they were back in January. Canadian airlines, which operate the bulk of this capacity, have made steeper cuts — down 6.1% on average.

    For example, in April alone, airlines initially scheduled 13,555 flights. That number has now dropped to 13,100 — a reduction of roughly 400 flights. Signs of this pullback first emerged in March and have since extended into the spring months.

    April 2025 vs. April 2024

    When comparing this April to the same month last year, scheduled capacity is generally lower. The Canadian dollar’s continued weakness and ongoing political tensions have likely played a role in these reductions.

    Air Canada’s seats are down more than 9% year-over-year, with WestJet reducing capacity by nearly 5%. United, by contrast, is growing its presence in the market with an 8.5% increase in seats. Meanwhile, Porter Airlines, which has deployed its new Embraer E2-195 jets, is directing 23% of its available seat miles to U.S. destinations this April.

    AirlineApr-25Apr-24DiffPercent Diff
    Air Canada623,461686,644-63,183-9.20%
    WestJet244,032255,989-11,957-4.67%
    United Airlines190,276175,32214,9548.53%
    Delta Air Lines121,417119,4062,0111.68%
    Porter Airlines119,29283,73635,55642.46%
    American Airlines112,644103,1189,5269.24%
    Flair Airlines40,44663,049-22,603-35.85%
    Alaska Airlines32,09229,5172,5758.72%
    Air Transat21,59528,989-7,394-25.51%
    JetBlue4,7704,860-90-1.85%

    Florida: A Sharper Decline

    Florida stands out. Traditionally a strong seasonal market for Canadian carriers — particularly in fall, winter, and spring — it’s now seeing significant pullbacks. Compared to January schedules, seat capacity for April through June is down more than 20% as of late March for destinations like Fort Lauderdale and Miami. The cuts are less severe in Orlando, but the overall trend points to caution among carriers.

    Watching the Summer Booking Curve

    When we talk about advance bookings data, it’s important to note that our insights come from online travel agencies—not direct airline bookings. And since most bookings still happen directly with the airlines, this means we’re looking at a sample, not the full picture. Some carriers don’t distribute through OTAs or GDS at all.

    So while the data can point us in the right direction, it’s more directional than definitive.

    We performed an analysis of bookings made between January and March 2025 for travel in April, May, and June, and compared them to the same period in 2024. The analysis focused on departures from Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary to key U.S. destinations—New York-area airports, Los Angeles, Chicago, Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, and Denver. It’s not the full picture, of course. But on third-party channels, bookings are down by about 20.5%. Only the airlines have the full view of what the actual decline looks like.

    Despite current reductions and potential reductions in bookings, the U.S. remains a critical market for both Canadian and U.S. airlines. Canadian carriers, in particular, depend on robust transborder demand — whether for business, family connections, or leisure. Airlines on both sides of the border will be closely monitoring booking trends as the summer season approaches.

  • Slow Start to Commercial Aircraft Deliveries in 2025

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    RobMorris Cirium
    RobMorris Cirium

    Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    There continues to be much talk about commercial aircraft deficits. Cirium Ascend Consultancy has explained before that in reality these amount to a deficit of new aircraft caused by the inability of Airbus and Boeing to increase production as rapidly as they would like, for a multitude of reasons. Last year they delivered 766 and 348 aircraft respectively across their commercial jet programmes, including a handful of aircraft for non-commercial roles. For 2025 Airbus has stated a delivery guidance of 820. Boeing has been silent, but we have a working estimate of 610 units.

    As the first quarter closed on Monday, we now have initial estimates for March, and hence first quarter, deliveries. Cirium’s fleet data indicates that Airbus delivered 69 aircraft in the month, including 18 A320s, 33 A321s, 10 A220s, two A330-900s and six A350-900s. Consequently, first quarter shipments total 134. Looking at data for the past 15 years (2010-2024), Airbus has historically averaged 20% of total annual deliveries in the first quarter. Hence, this cumulative 134 Q1 total suggests a 2025 annual total of 660, significantly short of the 820 target.

    However, Airbus was clear in its February briefing that we should expect lower deliveries in the early part of the year due to a relative shortage of engine deliveries, particularly CFM Leap for the A320 family. There is some evidence of this through analysis of aircraft backlog and production progress. Cirium data indicates that Airbus currently has 43 A320 family aircraft which have flown but not yet been delivered, whilst further research suggests there are at least 70 which have been rolled out of the respective final assembly lines but which have not yet flown. These include 43 aircraft which Cirium data indicates will be powered by Leap engines when finally delivered.

    Hence, Airbus has potential to increase delivery rates in the second quarter (and beyond) as they work through these aircraft. There are also signs of increasing A320 production pace again, with 53 first flights detected in March (compared to 42 in February and only 38 in January; as an aside there were also three on 1 April), perhaps headed back towards the average close to 60 seen in the final quarter of 2024. Since Airbus stated an expectation of 820 deliveries this year only a few weeks ago, it seems likely that this slow progress was already expected and at present there is no reason to doubt that number.

    Over at Boeing, Cirium estimates 41 deliveries in March including 33 737 Max, four 787s and four 777-200LRFs, taking the Q1 total to 130. The US OEM has historically delivered 24.5% of annual deliveries in the first quarter and hence there is an indication of 530 total, again relatively short of our 610 expectation for the year. However, we know that Boeing is working through a ramp-up on the 737 line and first flight data indicates 27 aircraft built in March, up from an average of 23 in the first two months of the year and as few as 10 in November 2024. Expectations of achieving the FAA-imposed cap of 38 per month by mid-year seem reasonable.

    Boeing’s deliveries are also being augmented by inventory aircraft. In 2025 to date almost 25% of 737 Max deliveries have been aircraft that flew more than 90 days prior to delivery. Although the pace of delivery of such aircraft seems to have slowed in March, with only four amongst the 33 total, there are still some 34 737-8s in inventory which seem likely to be delivered this year. If 737-7 deliveries could begin in 2025 (post-certification) then there are a further 28 potential deliveries there. The upside opportunity is completed with the 787 programme, where Cirium data indicates 25 aircraft flown prior to 2025 yet to be delivered (including 13 specifically for Lufthansa which are delayed by seat supply issues).

    In summary, provisional first quarter delivery data indicates that both Airbus and Boeing face significant challenges if they are to achieve 2025’s delivery targets. However, there are clear data arguments to suggest that we should see volumes increase in the coming months. Therefore, it seems premature to be revising those targets downwards yet.

    As a postscript, what about Comac? Following 13 C919 deliveries in 2024, we have seen suggestions of around 30 in 2025. We have also very recently seen reports of the three major Chinese airlines – China Eastern, Air China and China Southern – expecting 10, 12 and 10 C919 deliveries respectively this year. Yet in the first quarter Cirium’s data records only a single unit delivered to Comac Express. I bear this slow progress in mind each time I hear comments about Comac’s potential to break the duopoly. The challenge in Shanghai is clearly at least as great as those faced by Airbus and Boeing.

  • The Next-Gen Engine Challenges

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    YIRU ZHANG
    Yuri Zhang

    Yiru Zhang, Senior Valuation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Persistent Challenges in the PW1100G Fleet

    As the aviation industry continues to navigate supply chain disruptions and reliability concerns, the challenges surrounding new-generation engines remain a critical focal point. As of March 10, 2025more than 600 PW1100G-powered A320 family aircraft remain parked, accounting for 35% of the global fleet. While some suggest the worst may be over, caution is warranted. In contrast, the parked LEAP engine fleet is small and continues to decline in line with seasonal trend, signaling a more stable trajectory for its operational fleet.

    RTX reported $1.1 billion in GTF engine compensation payments in 2024, with further projected payouts between $1.1 and $1.3 billion in 2025, underscoring the financial burden caused by ongoing groundings. These payments are issued as aircraft-on-ground (AOG) incidents occur, reflecting the sustained impact on airline operations.

    Source: Cirium Core, 10 March 2025 (aircraft classified as parked following 7 continuous days of inactivity and therefore subject to restatement in near-term)

    Engine Production and Delivery Constraints

    RTX, the parent company of Pratt & Whitney, has signalled a 14% increase in large commercial engine production in 2025, with a slight increase in installations relative to additions to the spares pool. Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s analysis-driven 2025 delivery projections appear to show downside risk when compared to statements made by RTX as well as its competitor, in terms of supporting airframers to achieve their delivery targets for 2025.

    While the powder metallurgy issue is expected to be largely resolved within the next 18–24 months, other technical and supply chain challenges persist. The uncertainty surrounding next-generation engine technologies through 2030 is prompting airlines to retain CFM56 and IAE-powered aircraft longer than initially planned. This trend suggests sustained demand for older-generation engines well into the 2030s, albeit at lower price points than currently.

    The following analysis of fleet-weighted market values for key single-aisle aircraft, indexed to December 2019 levels, highlights some notable trends:

    Source: Cirium Core Current Market Values indexed to December 2019, on a fleet-weighted and constant-age basis

    The A320ceo and 737-800 have shown the most significant value appreciation. Mid-life 737NG values saw an uptick in Q1 2025. The A320ceo family is currently under review, but both A320 and A321 are expected to show a stable trend alongside other mid-life narrowbody aircraft.

    Older-generation aircraft values remain robust, supported by strong engine demand. Data indicates that lease extension levels are higher through 2023 and 2024 than in the latter years of the prior cycle. While demand for CFM56 and IAE engines remains solid over the next three years, supply constraints could ease once new production ramps up and more aircraft undergo part-out. A potential weakening in macroeconomic conditions and passenger demand could accelerate this timeline, but for now, the market remains resilient.

    Despite production increases, PW1100G-related disruptions will likely persist for the rest of the decade, reinforcing the need for strategic fleet planning among airlines and lessors.

  • Chasing the “Sweet Spot” Cabin With Boeing 777-300ER Retrofits

    Cirium is proud to be the Official Data Analytics Partner of Aircraft Interiors Expo 2025.

    James Mellon, Senior Aviation Data Research Analyst, Cirium

    A large proportion of widebody-operated flights is accounted for by younger, more efficient aircraft types – the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 – but the 777 is still a core type for long-haul flying. Cirium schedules data shows that in the week commencing 7 April (the week of Aircraft Interiors Expo), 14% of widebody flights will be operated with a Boeing 777-300ER. There are 757 examples in service according to Cirium fleets data, so it is clear that the 777-300ER will continue to fly for many years to come. However, given the persisting issues affecting the industry, reliance on the 777-300ER (and other legacy aircraft types) may be greater than ever. 

    New widebodies are being manufactured and delivered at a slower pace than projected. Brand-new aircraft such as the 777X (the 777-300ER’s successor) have issues to resolve ahead of certification, delaying entry into service. New interior products also face certification issues, and the general supply-chain troubles continue to rumble on. This is causing airlines to reconsider how much longer they need to keep their current aircraft in service. 

    Production of the 777-300ER officially concluded in 2024, and with 97% of the airframes manufactured still in service or in storage, a significant number of these will operate through the 2030s and possibly into the early 2040s. 

    Several airlines have recently announced that their 777-300ERs will undergo cabin retrofits to bring new interior products on board, as a part of extending the service life of these airframes. In this analysis, we look at the fleets that have been retrofitted over the past few years and those likely to head into hangars soon. 

    Current and Completed Retrofits 

    Cirium’s Ground Events data capability shows that 98 Boeing 777-300ERs have been retrofitted with new cabins since the beginning of 2020. Even during the pandemic, work was undertaken to refresh the interiors of aircraft. 

    January 2020 – March 2023 

    Source: Cirium Ascend Ground Events, Boeing 777 cabin retrofit events by registration, operator, event type, MRO provider & tracked ground duration. 

    April 2023 – March 2025 

    Source: Cirium Ascend Ground Events, Boeing 777 cabin retrofit events by registration, operator, event type, MRO provider & tracked ground duration. 

    Between 2022 and 2024, Air France completed retrofits of 12 aircraft, the second sub-fleet of 777-300ERs to undergo such work. The changes resulted in a slight reduction in total seat count, from 381 to 369. What is notable is the 100% increase in premium-economy seat capacity, the cabin having doubled in size from 24 to 48 seats. The Recaro PL3530 seats of that cabin were installed together with CL3710s in economy, plus 48 Safran Cirrus business-class seats. Ground Events data shows that some retrofits were undertaken in-house with AFI KLM Engineering & Maintenance at Paris Orly, while others were outsourced to Sabena Technics, with aircraft visiting its Bordeaux facility. 

    Air France’s partner airline KLM has recently retrofitted its 777-300ER fleet. The modifications were undertaken in-house by KLM Engineering & Maintenance at Amsterdam Schiphol. Jamco Venture business-class seats have been installed, together with Collins MiQ seats, creating brand-new premium economy cabins. The Dutch carrier introduced premium economy in 2022, and it is now available on board 55 Boeing 777s and 787s. 

    Another airline to have recently introduced premium economy is Swiss, following the other Lufthansa Group airlines. Just like Lufthansa and Austrian, Swiss uses seats from ZIM. Ground Events data shows that Swiss’s 12 777-300ERs had retrofit events at Zurich between February and June 2022. In each, 24 ZIM PC-02 seats were installed by the airline’s in-house MRO provider. 

    During 2019, ANA took delivery of six brand-new 777-300ERs with new interior products, including ‘The Suite’ first class and ‘The Room’ business class. The Japanese airline’ ambitions to retrofit many of the older airframes with these new interiors were subsequently scaled back as a consequence of the pandemic. Cirium fleets data shows that 15 older examples were retired between December 2020 and December 2022, reducing the fleet of -300ERs 53%. So far, four of the 2009/10 vintage airframes have visited the ANA Base Maintenance Technics facility at Tokyo Narita or HAECO in Xiamen for their retrofits, according to Ground Events. Three 2015-build aircraft that still carry the old interiors have yet to undergo this work, assuming all will be retrofitted. 

    Cathay Pacific has embarked on a retrofit programme set to refresh most of its aircraft over the coming years. So far, three aircraft have emerged from HAECO in Xiamen with retrofitted interiors, Ground Events data indicates. The brand-new business-class ‘Aria Suites’ are manufactured by Collins Aerospace. Recaro is the supplier of new seats for an expanded premium-economy cabin, while the current Recaro seats in economy class are being refreshed with new covers. 

    The aircraft retrofitted so far have had some interesting changes to their capacity make-up. Premium economy capacity has increased 41%, from 34 to 48 seats, reflecting the wider recent trend of growth in such cabins. Meanwhile, the number of business-class seats has reduced from 53 to 45, bucking the trend, and the first-class cabins have been removed from these aircraft. Despite this, Cathay Pacific is not eliminating its first-class product entirely. Some of the four-class configured 777-300ERs will retain these cabins for the foreseeable future, until they are replaced by new first-class suites arriving on board the 777Xs Cathay expects to receive. 

    Premium Dynamics 

    The number of airlines offering first-class cabins has gradually reduced over time, but a handful of major carriers still do so.  

    When British Airways retrofitted 12 777-300ERs at its Cardiff maintenance facility, the first-class cabins were downsized from 14 to 8 seats. Conversely, the business-class cabins grew from 56 to 76 seats. 

    Qatar Airways intends to maintain its most premium offering by including first-class suites on some of its Boeing 777Xs. These aircraft are set to replace a fleet of 10 Airbus A380s, the only aircraft in the Qatar fleet that feature first class: eight seats per aircraft.  

    The latest airline to announce the elimination of first-class is American Airlines (albeit just from long-haul services). The 777-300ER is the only aircraft type in American’s widebody fleet to feature first. All 20 aircraft will be retrofitted, involving the removal of the eight first-class seats. The business-class cabin will grow from 52 to 70 seats, with Adient’s Ascent used to provide product commonality with the airline’s latest 787-9s and Airbus A321XLRs. 

    Korean Air will remove first class from 11 of their 777-300ERs, while launching premium economy when retrofits commence later in 2025. The introduction of premium economy is one element of the airline unveiling its new corporate identity. Safran will provide the premium economy seats, while new business class seats will be manufactured by Collins Aerospace. 

    The increasing size of premium-economy cabins highlights the growing popularity of the “sweet spot” cabin. The example of Air France doubling the capacity on board its 369-seat aircraft is probably the most extreme growth witnessed so far. 

    As passenger expectations of business class are rising, layouts have standardised on a 1-2-1 arrangement, providing passengers with direct aisle access. 

    Emirates has begun a mammoth retrofit programme to update 81 of its 777-300ERs with new cabins. With 15% of the global 777-300ER fleet, Emirates is the model’s largest operator. Older business-class seats arranged in a 2-3-2 configuration are being replaced with new seats arranged as 1-2-1. The Middle Eastern airline is also bringing premium economy to these aircraft, following the introduction of the new cabin class on board its A380s from 2021. Ground Events data shows that 19 777-300ERs have been retrofitted in-house by Emirates Engineering at Dubai, with an average downtime of 23 days. 

    Outlook 

    So which other airlines are planning to retrofit their aircraft? And how many are we expecting to see retrofitted in future? 

    Air France will introduce brand-new first-class suites, to be retrofitted onto their sub-fleet of 19 aircraft which contain a four-cabin configuration. Some of these airframes are the oldest examples within the 43-aircraft 777-300ER fleet, with an average age of 19 years old. 

    Tata-owned Air India is undergoing a major transformation, one element of which is its revitalising of aircraft interiors. The carrier will begin retrofits of its 787-8 this year, before it begins updating its legacy fleet of 777-300ERs and 777-200LRs. 

    Having ordered new seats from Collins Aerospace, Saudia will retrofit its 777-300ERs, planned for 2026 and 2027. The fleet of 35 aircraft comprises airframes delivered between 2012 and 2017. 

    Turkish Airlines has turned to Safran and Turkish Cabin Industries to provide a new business-class seat for its 36-aircraft strong fleet. Arranged in the standard 1-2-1 configuration, the “Crystal” business-class seats will replace the current 2-3-2 layout. 

    Thai Airways will overhaul the cabins of at least 14 aircraft in the coming years. In addition to new seats and IFE in the first, business and economy cabins, premium economy will be reintroduced, having featured on some of the airlines widebodies in the past. 

    Meanwhile, EVA Air, which pioneered premium economy, will retrofit 14 777-300ERs, around half of its fleet of the aircraft. Adient Aerospace, Recaro and Safran will reportedly be involved in the supply of seats, together with a new in-flight entertainment system from Panasonic. 

    Decision Time for Airlines? 

    With these airlines preparing to update their aircraft, plus aforementioned airlines part-way through cabin work programmes, we expect to see around 260 further 777-300ERs retrofitted through to the end of the decade. Whether other airlines operating the aircraft type should also commit to updating their airframes hinges on some crucial factors. 

    How long before new widebodies intended to replace existing aircraft are delivered? With new aircraft delivery lead-times increasing, the dependence on keeping legacy types active for longer grows accordingly. Retirements of existing aircraft will be delayed longer. By keeping them in service airlines avoid a potential capacity shortage before new aircraft arrive. This could justify the business case for cabin retrofit work, extending the service life of the aircraft. Planning ahead by combining this with other required maintenance work would reduce the amount of downtime too. 

    Securing slots with capacity constrained MRO facilities, and sourcing the new interior products required are additional challenges. With many retrofits already planned for 777-300ERs and other legacy aircraft types, amid increasing demand for resources required to perform the work, it’s decision time for the airlines that have not yet committed to their fleet of the future. 

    Contact our team to discover how to leverage the industry’s most advanced and complete data to understand when, where and why aircraft are undergoing retrofits and other maintenance events. 

    Attending AIX Hamburg? Book a meeting with the Cirium team. 

  • Flying Safer Than Ever: The Evolution of Aviation Safety

    Paul Hayes, Director – Safety and Insurance, Cirium

    Fatal airline accidents, especially those that result in the deaths of passengers as well as crew, are rare. In 2024, there were four accidents in which passengers were killed, much the same as the annual average over the last five years of 3.6. This is less than half the number of these accident types for the most recent decade (2010-19), in which the average was 8.6 per year, and a quarter of the average the previous decade, of 14.7. In earlier years, we might have typically seen something between about 20 and 30 fatal accidents per year. Over the last 30 years the average number of airline accidents involving passenger fatalities worldwide has halved every 10 years.

    Source: Cirium Fleets and Accidents data

    The number of passengers killed in these accidents follows the same trend of roughly halving every 10 years. The number of passengers killed in 2024, at 238, was high compared with 2023, but most resulted from a single accident, the Jeju Air Boeing 737 crash of 29 December, which resulted in 175 passenger fatalities. Nevertheless, the annual average number of passengers killed over the last five years, at about 137, is still less than half the average for the period 2010-19 which was 304, and barely a fifth of the previous decade’s average, of 680. Prior to that, 1,000 passenger fatalities per year on average was typical.

    Source: Cirium Fleets and Accidents data

    The frequency of aircraft accident reports in the media shapes public views of airline safety. However, this does not take into account changes in exposure. The number of accidents in which there are passenger fatalities and the number of passenger fatalities have both reduced significantly over the last 25-30 years. Each figure is at roughly a fifth of its level in the 1990s. However, over this period, air travel has grown rapidly, and there  are now far more passenger flights and passengers flying – an estimated 5 billion passengers were carried during 2024 compared with around 1.5 billion in 1990. So, the number of fatalities has fallen 80% despite a trebling in passenger numbers. Simplistically, the likelihood of being killed in an air crash is one-seventeenth what it was 30 years ago.

    Source: Cirium Fleets and Accidents data

    The annual average passenger fatality rate in the five years to the end of 2024 was one per 27 million passengers carried. This rate is more than twice as good as it was last decade (2010-19), when it was one per 12.9 million carried, and almost eight times better than in the 2000-09 decade of one per 3.5 million passengers carried. The passenger fatality rate in the 1990s was only one per 1.8 million carried.

    An extensive statistical review of airline accidents is available for free in Cirium’s Airline Safety & Losses Review 2024.

  • How Southwest Became North America’s Most On-Time Airline

    Mike Malik, Chief Industry Officer, Cirium

    Southwest carefully engineered transformation, redefining reliability, and showcasing the impact of strategic improvements and a commitment to sustained performance.

    Two years ago, Southwest Airlines faced one of the toughest challenges in its history. A holiday meltdown in December 2022 left the airline scrambling, cancelling nearly 17,000 flights and disrupting travel for over 2 million passengers. Social media swarmed with frustrated posts, and trust in the airline hit rock bottom. The crisis wasn’t just weather-driven; it exposed deeper flaws, from outdated scheduling systems to operational vulnerabilities. Industry watchers wondered if Southwest could recover.  

    Fast forward to February 2025, and the airline is writing a very different story. With an impressive on-time arrival rate of 82.27%, Southwest Airlines has been named North America’s most on-time airline by aviation analytics leader Cirium. It’s not just a comeback; it’s a transformation that began long before Winter Storm Elliott. How did Southwest go from crisis to champion?  

    A Turning Point Built on Leadership  

    Justin Jones

    Southwest didn’t just “fix” its problems; it overhauled the way it operates, said Justin Jones, the airline’s Executive Vice President of Operations. Speaking with Scott McCartney recently on the Airlines Confidential podcast, Jones described the monumental effort it took for the airline’s leadership team to steer the airline out of rough skies.

    “We knew we couldn’t just patch things up and move on. It required rethinking everything—from technology to teamwork to how we schedule flights,” he explained.  

    Southwest didn’t just “fix” its problems; it overhauled the way it operates, said Justin Jones, the airline’s Executive Vice President of Operations. Speaking with Scott McCartney recently on the Airlines Confidential podcast, Jones described the monumental effort it took for the airline’s leadership team to steer the airline out of rough skies.  

    “We knew we couldn’t just patch things up and move on. It required rethinking everything—from technology to teamwork to how we schedule flights,” he explained.  

    This leadership approach reassured both employees and customers that resilience was a key part of Southwest’s operations. 

    How Southwest Took Back Control  

    Southwest’s recovery wasn’t built on short-term solutions or lucky breaks. It was a carefully engineered transformation, focused on key areas where their previous systems had failed.  

    1. Preparing An Operation Ready For The Future  

    Southwest recognized the need for stronger, more adaptable technology to support its growing network. While already working to modernize the operation, the airline accelerated its efforts—investing $1.3 billion in more modern IT systems, including automated flight rescheduling tools and advanced decision-making platforms. These upgrades go beyond short-term fixes—they are designed to enhance efficiency, improve resilience, and ensure Southwest can operate smoothly even in the most challenging conditions. 

    2. Weather Resilience Strategies  

    Winter weather may be unpredictable, but its disruptive power can be anticipated. Southwest strengthened its defenses by expanding de-icing capabilities, boosting airport coordination, and adjusting staffing protocols during storms. These improvements meant fewer last-minute scrambles and more efficient operations during extreme conditions.  

    3. Smarter Scheduling, Fewer Delays  

    By aligning Network Planning and the Network Operations Center under a single leader, Southwest brought network thinking into how it manages the business every day, including aircraft routing, cancellation decisions, and coordination with all operating groups. 

    4. More Crew, Fewer Complications  

    Southwest also tackled one of the biggest contributors to operational chaos: staffing. By hiring more pilots, flight attendants, and ground crew members, the airline ensured resources were available even during high-stress moments. Crew shortages, once a critical weak link, were no longer a stumbling block in delivering reliable service.  

    5. Extra Aircraft for Extra Assurance  

    To add further stability, Southwest increased its fleet rotation by incorporating more spare aircraft. This allowed for quicker recoveries from unexpected mechanical issues or delays, minimizing disruptions for passengers. (Southwest didn’t add more spare aircraft per se; they added more late departing originators to give mechanics more time to work on the aircraft overnight. TechOps took numerous steps to further reduce aircraft downtime.) 

    A New Era for Southwest  

    By 2024, Southwest’s efforts were already showing results. The airline achieved a cancellation rate of just 0.62%, the lowest in the industry and well ahead of the 1.63% industry average. During the busy summer months, they flew a record-breaking 54 million passengers while improving on-time performance by two percentage points.  

    But the real breakthrough came in early 2025. With an A14 rate in the low-to-mid 80s (a measure of flights arriving within 14 minutes and 59 second of the scheduled time), Southwest ascended to the top of Cirium’s on-time rankings.  

    This achievement signaled a shift in an industry where Delta Air Lines has long set the standard for operational reliability.

    Southwest’s climb to the #1 spot was more than just a comeback—it showcased the impact of strategic improvements and a commitment to sustained performance. 

    More Than Numbers  

    Behind the metrics is a story of persistence, innovation, and teamwork. Employees who worked tirelessly to restore faith in the airline. Passengers who began to take notice, moving from frustration to praise for the airline’s newfound reliability.  

    Leadership, too, played its part by inspiring confidence. Justin Jones credited the turnaround not to any single decision, but to the collective spirit of a company determined to win back trust.

    “You can’t plan your way out of a crisis like this overnight,” he noted. “It takes consistent effort and a commitment to doing what’s right for passengers and our employees.”  

    Lessons in Transformation  

    Southwest’s rise to the top offers valuable lessons for the aviation industry and beyond. When faced with operational challenges, many companies opt for quick fixes. However, Southwest took a different approach—investing in core infrastructure, refining its network strategy, and strengthening its teams—demonstrating that resilience comes from deliberate action and long-term commitment. 

    For passengers, the message is clear as well. Even brands that falter can become reliable again with transparency, hard work, and a relentless focus on improvement.  

    The Flight Ahead  

    While Southwest’s success is worth celebrating, its team knows the job isn’t done. Consistency will depend on maintaining the momentum they’ve established and adapting as new challenges emerge. 

    Southwest is working to maintain this momentum even as the recently announced move to charge for checked luggage will likely result in more gate-checked bags that could threaten the hard-won reductions in turn times. The airline is adding technology at every gate to eliminate string tags, bolstering procedures to help gate agents manage volume, and installing equipment to get bags more efficiently from the gate to the ground. 

    But if the last two years have proven anything, it’s that Southwest Airlines is more than capable of weathering a storm and taking flight again.  

    More than a comeback, Southwest’s rise to the top shows that operational excellence is built on adaptability, strategy, and commitment.  

  • Brisbane Airport Uses Sky Warehouse for Advanced Analytics

    London, 18 March 2025: Brisbane Airport (BNE), which serves as the major gateway to Queensland, has partnered with aviation analytics firm, Cirium, to become one of the first airports to integrate Cirium Sky Warehouse, a data-driven cloud platform, into its modernisation efforts.

    Cirium’s advanced data and analytics will be seamlessly integrated with Brisbane Airport’s business systems. This integration will support enhanced capacity planning, resource allocation, and operations analysis.

    Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO, commented: “We are delighted to support Brisbane Airport’s transformative investment to revolutionise its passenger experience and meet future travel demand.

    “Integrating Cirium data and analytics through the Cirium Sky Warehouse will help the airport to consolidate and accelerate digitization, leading to improved decision-making and operational performance.

    ” Our data will be a crucial asset in driving efficiency and elevating the traveler experience at Brisbane Airport.”

    Ryan Both, Brisbane Airport Executive General Manager Aviation said: “Accessing Cirium’s schedules data through Cirium Sky Warehouse enables advanced automation, marking a critical step in Brisbane Airport’s digital transformation project.”

    “The schedules data plays a critical role in creating and executing more accurate flight schedules, planning for future events and fluctuations in air traffic, gaining more comprehensive insights, and making decisions for business growth. This will lead to numerous improvements around efficiency, sustainability and passenger experience.”

    “Embracing a cloud-based data integration approach also means we will significantly reduce the time spent internally on data and ultimately drive cost efficiencies.”

    Brisbane Airport is currently undergoing a transformation program known as Future BNE, which includes 150 projects over a 10-year period, focusing on upgrades to the airport’s domestic and international terminals, as well as planning for a third terminal, ahead of the city hosting the 2032 Olympics.

    This first phase modernization will support an improved experience for the almost 25 million passengers currently passing through its terminals and the additional 10 million expected over the coming decade.

    The Cirium Sky Warehouse delivers the highest quality aviation data and analytics in one accessible data cloud, aligning seamlessly with Brisbane Airport’s digital transformation objectives. While the airport will initially leverage schedules data, a wealth of other data can be accessed and integrated from Cirium Sky Warehouse including flight, traffic, fleet, fares, weather, and CO2 emissions.

    By leveraging the power of Cirium’s data cloud, Brisbane Airport joins global major airlines, fuel supply companies, aviation financiers, and more in enhancing its planning, operational efficiency and growth opportunities.

    To find out more about the Cirium Sky Warehouse, click here

    For Cirium media inquiries please contact media@cirium.com

    About Cirium
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, delivering powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. Equipping airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities, the company provides the clarity and intelligence needed to optimise operations, make informed decisions and accelerate revenue growth.

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.

    For further information please follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

    About Brisbane Airport
    BNE is the third-largest airport in Australia by passenger numbers, with 24 million passengers travelling through the airport annually. BNE contributes $4.7 billion GDP annually, with 1 in 70 Queensland jobs enabled by BNE and benefits provided range of key industries such as tourism, resources and international education. BNE is the largest airport in Australia by land size, covering 2,700 hectares of land used for aviation, property development and consumer businesses, which employ over 20,000 people. In 2025 it celebrates 100 years of operation.