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  • Middle East Aviation: Key Market Insights From Latest Outlook

    The Middle East aviation sector continues to outpace global growth trajectories, with compelling data revealing the region’s expanding influence on international aviation markets. Recent analysis of regional performance metrics demonstrates sustained momentum across multiple indicators, positioning Middle Eastern carriers as significant drivers of global aviation recovery and future expansion.

    Watch the Middle East Market Outlook

    Market Share and Growth Trajectory

    The Middle East represents approximately 6% of the global aviation market by multiple measures. According to Cirium’s global Schedules data, the region accounts for 6.1% of total global scheduled capacity, while the passenger fleet in service represents 6.2% of the worldwide total.

    However, the region’s growth rate significantly outpaces global averages. Since 2010, Middle Eastern capacity has grown at 5.7% compound annually, compared to the global rate of 4%. This growth momentum continues into 2025, with Middle East international traffic expanding at 6% for the first five months of the year, ahead of the total market’s 5.8% growth.

    Fleet Development and Investment Pipeline

    The region’s fleet expansion tells a particularly compelling story. Middle Eastern single-aisle fleet development has surged more than 35% since July 2019, dramatically outperforming the global development rate of approximately 15%. Twin-aisle passenger fleets have similarly outperformed, growing nearly 3% above 2019 levels while global twin-aisle fleets remain around 2% lower.

    Three major markets – UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar – each maintain aircraft backlogs exceeding 100% of their current installed fleets. The total regional backlog encompasses approximately 1,615 aircraft scheduled for delivery through 2035, representing roughly $200 billion in 2025 economic conditions.

    Financial Performance Strength

    Middle Eastern airlines have demonstrated exceptional profitability recovery. While representing 6% of global fleet capacity, the region contributes more than 12% of total global airline profits. IATA projects the region will generate $5-6 billion of the estimated $36 billion in global airline net profits for 2025.

    This financial strength has enhanced the region’s creditworthiness with lessors. Operating lessors manage approximately 50% of single-aisle aircraft and 40% of twin-aisle aircraft in the region, with the higher twin-aisle leasing percentage indicating lessor confidence in Middle Eastern airline credit quality.

    Environmental Considerations

    The region faces sustainability challenges that require attention. Despite representing 6% of the global fleet, Middle Eastern airlines generate approximately 10% of global aviation emissions, primarily from twin-aisle operations. This intensity reflects the region’s role as a major connecting hub for long-haul international travel.

    As the industry moves toward net-zero commitments, replacing current-generation aircraft with more fuel-efficient models like the 777-9, 787, A350, and A320neo family will be crucial for reducing the region’s emissions intensity.

    Looking Ahead

    Cirium’s Schedules data projects Middle Eastern regional capacity growth between 5-10% on a year-over-year basis through the remainder of 2025, maintaining the region’s position above global growth trends. This projection aligns with the substantial aircraft delivery pipeline required to absorb the significant backlog.

    The region has also established itself as a growing center for aircraft leasing, with two companies now ranking among the world’s 25 largest lessors by fleet value. This development reflects recognition of operating leasing as an efficient aircraft financing method and suggests continued growth in this sector.

    These insights underscore the region’s continuing evolution as a critical global aviation hub, supported by strong financial performance, significant investment commitments, and strategic positioning in international connectivity markets.

    Watch the Middle East Market Outlook in full.

  • Emerging Freighter Market Dynamics in H1 2025

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Yinan-Qin

    Yinan Qin, Senior Aviation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Traffic and Yields

    Based on Cirium’s year-to-date cargo flight data for 2025 across the major cargo traffic lanes, we observed a sharp decline in flight activity around February, coinciding with the announcement of new US tariffs. However, flights rebounded quickly as carriers employed front-loading strategies to mitigate tariff impacts before the initially announced effective date in May 2025. The latest data indicates that routes connecting to North America have been the most significantly affected. Unlike passenger flights, cargo operations are more flexible and responsive to market changes. As such, we anticipate continued in-time adjustments in cargo flight schedules in response to tariff developments. However, when and how future tariff issues will be resolved is still unclear at present.

    Note: (narrowbody/widebody freighters) * total = all Asia-Pacific and Europe to North America, and Asia-Pacific to Europe
    Source: Cirium Core

    Global air cargo yields, which are also highly sensitive to market dynamics, were volatile from 2020 to 2022 but have stabilised since late 2023, staying about 33% above pre-Covid levels. On major long-haul routes like Europe-North America, rates are back to pre-pandemic levels, while Asia-Europe and Asia-North America rates remain elevated due to capacity constraints and geopolitical tensions. While the full impact of US tariffs on yields remains to be seen, a return to pre-Covid pricing levels appears unlikely in the near term.

    Freighter Fleet Overview

    The global freighter fleet has grown steadily over the past two decades. As of mid-2025, there were over 1,400 widebody and more than 800 narrowbody freighters in service. Growth in widebody freighters has been driven by new factory-built freighters, Passenger-to-Freighter (P2F) conversions, and reactivations of aging widebody freighters during the pandemic. Narrowbody freighters also surged in popularity but now face an oversupply issue, with roughly 26% in storage compared to 13% for widebodies — both figures remain above pre-pandemic levels.

    A closer examination of the stored fleet reveals that a higher proportion of inactive narrowbody freighters, particularly the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A321, are owned by lessors compared with widebody freighters. Many of the parked narrowbody freighters are awaiting conversion or struggling to secure lessees that would be willing to pay a rent premium for the high feedstock and conversion costs. Additionally, the overheating engine leasing market may also encourage lessors to lease engines out separately to obtain better premiums than leasing the entire freighter.

    Note: Widebody and Narrowbody Freighters only
    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

    P2F conversion activity slowed significantly this year, especially for the Boeing 737-800, with only 15 conversions completed. About 48 aircraft, mostly widebody freighters, are scheduled for conversion in 2025. The conversion backlog has dropped to around 320 units, mainly comprising the Boeing 737-800, Airbus A321, Airbus A330 and Boeing 777-300ER. However, some backlog aircraft may return to passenger service due to rising conversion costs, weakening freighter demand, and supplemental type certificate (STC) approval delays.

    Note: Widebody and Narrowbody Freighters only
    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

    On the factory-built freighter side, about 25 new freighter orders have been placed so far in 2025, mostly for the Airbus A350F and Boeing 777-200LRF. Qatar Airways has placed the largest order for the upcoming 777-8F, while the Airbus A350F has attracted a broader customer base, including lessors. With production of the Boeing 767 and 777 set to end in 2027 and current order slots likely sold out, the market may face a potential supply shortage. Ongoing OEM delivery delays and uncertainty surrounding Boeing 777X certification could further contribute to the anticipated production gap in the short to medium term.

    Source: Cirium Core; Press Release

    An analysis of Cirium Market Values of selected key 20-year-old freighters indicates that Market Values have remained resilient over time, particularly for widebody freighters. The only exception has been the Boeing 747-400F, whose decline in value is largely due to its Market Value now being primarily driven by engine. A similar trend is observed in the leasing market. Lease Rates have remained generally robust following the volatility experienced during the pandemic.

    The sustained demand for widebody freighters, combined with continued delays in the delivery of new factory-built freighter, slow progress in the certification of the Boeing 777 P2F conversion programme, rising maintenance costs, and limited MRO slots are all contributing to the resilience of current Market Values. These factors are expected to continue placing upward pressure on freighter valuations until supply-side constraints ease. As such, we anticipate that Market Values will likely remain robust in the near term.

    Note: Value as of June 2025
    Source: Cirium Valuation Analyzer

    In conclusion, the global air cargo market is expected to remain supply-constrained in the near future, especially for widebody capacity. Despite North America’s status as a key air cargo market segment, routes to North America face the most immediate uncertainty due to tariffs, broader structural factors – including limited production capacity, slowing P2F conversions and elevated yield levels – suggesting a prolonged period of moderate demand and a mix of continued tight supply (widebodies) and gradually decreasing oversupply in the short-to-medium term.

  • AI in Travel Tech: Insights From Cirium’s First Networking Event

    As artificial intelligence and automation reshape how we experience travel, industry leaders are gathering to share insights, forge connections, and chart the path forward. Cirium recently hosted its first travel tech networking event, bringing together key voices from across the sector to explore how AI is transforming the traveler experience.

    Held strategically after the Business Travel Show at ExCeL London, this inaugural event created the perfect opportunity for meaningful dialogue between industry peers. The evening combined networking with substantive discussion, featuring an expert panel that dove deep into AI’s current applications and future potential in aviation and travel.

    Setting the Stage for Innovation

    Leanne Mehmet, Sales Manager for Cirium’s Traveller Services Europe, opened the evening by emphasizing the importance of bringing together industry leaders to share knowledge and build relationships. The timing couldn’t have been more relevant, with AI adoption accelerating across every aspect of travel operations.

    The event’s format balanced structured learning with organic networking, allowing attendees to engage with both formal presentations and informal conversations. This approach reflected a broader industry trend toward collaborative problem-solving, where companies share insights to advance the entire sector.

    The AI Panel: Real-world Applications and Future Vision

    The evening’s centerpiece was a panel discussion moderated by Cirium Account Manager Poorva Baderia. The conversation featured three industry experts: Alex Lawrence from Collinson, Micha Van Eijk from Emburse, and Kevin O’Toole from Cirium. Each brought unique perspectives on how AI is currently being implemented and where the technology is heading.

    Making Travel Seamless Through Automation

    Micha Van Eijk delivered what many considered the evening’s most memorable insight: “Automation is all about taking friction from the travellers.” He expanded on this concept by noting, “When you don’t know things went wrong, that is when automation has succeeded.”

    This perspective captures the essence of effective AI implementation in travel. The goal isn’t just to automate processes, but to create such smooth operations that travelers never experience the problems that automation prevents. When flights are rerouted seamlessly, when rebooking happens automatically, and when compensation is processed without traveler intervention, AI has achieved its purpose.

    This approach represents a fundamental shift from reactive customer service to proactive problem prevention. Rather than waiting for travelers to report issues, AI systems can identify and resolve problems before they impact the passenger experience.

    Data-driven Decision Making Without Human Intervention

    Alex Lawrence from Collinson provided concrete examples of how companies are operationalizing AI insights. He explained how Collinson “ingests Cirium’s data in order to push benefits to customers” when disruptions occur, whether through delays or irregular operations.

    Lawrence emphasized that effective automation creates “the environment where we make data driven decisions without having to get involved.” This hands-off approach allows companies to respond to disruptions at scale, processing thousands of flight changes and passenger impacts simultaneously.

    The key to this success lies in the quality and integration of data sources. When systems can access real-time flight information, passenger preferences, and available alternatives, they can make optimal decisions faster than any human operator could manage.

    The Foundation: Unified Data Infrastructure

    Kevin O’Toole from Cirium addressed the fundamental challenge that makes AI necessary in aviation: data fragmentation. His observation that “If the data was already joined up together, then we wouldn’t be here” highlights the core problem that AI solutions are designed to solve.

    O’Toole used this point to showcase Cirium’s Sky Warehouse, which he described as “automation in aviation absolutely personified.” This platform unifies schedules, flight status, CO₂ emissions data, fleet information, fares, weather, and more into a single, standardized, time-aligned resource.

    This unified approach represents the infrastructure layer that enables effective AI applications. Without clean, integrated data, AI systems cannot make reliable decisions or provide consistent user experiences. Sky Warehouse demonstrates how technology companies are solving this foundational challenge.

    Current State of AI Adoption

    The panel discussion revealed that AI in travel technology has moved well beyond experimental phases. Companies are actively using AI for:

    Disruption Management: Automatically rerouting passengers, rebooking flights, and arranging compensation when irregularities occur.

    Predictive Analytics: Using historical data and real-time information to anticipate problems before they affect travelers.

    Personalized Service Delivery: Tailoring offers, communications, and support based on individual traveler profiles and preferences.

    Operational Efficiency: Streamlining internal processes to reduce costs and improve service delivery speed.

    These applications demonstrate that AI has become integral to competitive operations rather than a future possibility.

    Looking Ahead: The Evolution of Travel Experience

    The insights shared point to several key trends shaping the future of travel technology:

    Invisible Automation: The most successful AI implementations will be those that travelers never notice because problems are prevented rather than solved after they occur.

    Integrated Ecosystems: Companies that can provide unified data and seamless system integration will enable better AI applications across the entire travel experience.

    Proactive Service Models: The industry is shifting from reactive customer service to predictive problem prevention, fundamentally changing how companies interact with travelers.

    Collaborative Innovation: Partnerships between data providers, technology companies, and service providers are becoming essential for delivering comprehensive AI solutions.

    The Path Forward for Travel Technology

    The focus on removing friction from the traveler experience, combined with the emphasis on data-driven decision making, shows how companies are balancing technological capability with user needs.

    As AI continues to evolve, conversations like this will play an increasingly important role in shaping industry standards and best practices. The insights shared by experts like Van Eijk, Lawrence, and O’Toole provide a roadmap for companies looking to implement AI solutions effectively.

    The future of travel technology lies not just in individual company innovations, but in the collaborative efforts of an entire industry working together to create better experiences for travelers worldwide.

    For Cirium, this event marked a strategic commitment to fostering meaningful connections across the travel tech landscape. These relationships enable the knowledge sharing and collaboration that drive industry-wide innovation. the traveler experience and optimise travel management.

  • Five Things We Learnt From the 2025 Paris Air Show

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Max Kingsley-Jones Valuations Manager, Cirium Ascend Consultancy


    As ever, there was a lot going on around the Le Bourget chalets and halls, but here are some key takeaways:

    Airbus’s home run: The “home” OEM made the most noise as is usually the case, announcing some 400 orders and commitments during the show. Boeing, which has traditionally played down its participation in the so-called air-show “order race”, was intentionally quiet this time amid the Air India 787 tragedy which occurred just prior to Le Bourget. Despite Boeing’s low-key approach, total announcements at the show for commercial aircraft amounted to almost 600 orders and commitments.  The show sales tally might have been even higher had anticipated announcements materialised from AirAsia (for “100” small single-aisles – A220s or perhaps E-Jet E2s) and Turkish Airlines (long-expected large order for 737s and Boeing twin-aisles).

    Paris 2025 Commercial Aircraft Orders and Commitments

    Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer/OEMs (*ANA order, not announced by Boeing; ** two DHC orders)

    Power play: The CFM RISE open-fan powerplant mock-up was a crowd pleaser on Safran’s stand in Le Bourget’s main exhibition hall. The concept is in the news as a potential front-runner to propel Airbus’s proposed next-generation single-aisle. With Airbus saying it aims to launch the new aircraft by the end of this decade, the open-fan architecture of RISE alongside is under evaluation alongside advanced shrouded-fan design concepts from rival engine OEMs. To that point, Pratt & Whitney outlined the progress of its work with fellow RTX company Collins to ground-test and then fly a hybrid-electric version of the A320neo’s PW1100G. Meanwhile the P&W Canada division disclosed that it is working closely with Airbus’s regional arm ATR to study a hybrid-electric powered turboprop derivative, in what is effectively a reboot of the regional aircraft OEM’s Evo project. This reduced-emissions design had previously been slated for a 2030 debut, but the target now is around 2035.

    Big twin: The A350-1000 had a particularly strong show, securing a total of 35 orders and 25 commitments from two clients – Riyadh Air and Starlux Airlines. Sales of the largest A350 variant have been solid this year to date, with the 62 announced so far accounting for two-thirds of the type’s 2025 tally. The variant now holds for almost 40% of the firm backlog for A350 passenger models, which totals around 700 orders. Talk of an A350 stretch has restarted, after previously being mooted a decade ago as the “A350-2000”. A larger derivative of the R-R Trent XWB-powered twinjet, which would pitch Airbus’s biggest aircraft directly at the 777-9, could open the door to an alternative engine option. This could perhaps be an advanced derivative of the Trent, or even a solution from Cincinnati. But would GE have the appetite to support a rival to the GE9X-powered Boeing?

    Regional resurgence: ATR and Embraer announced almost 160 orders and commitments between them. US-based public charter operator JSX placed commitments with ATR for 15 firm and 10 options in a deal touted as a potential signal of a turboprop revival in the USA. But there have already been several false dawns in that regard. Meanwhile Embraer’s ongoing success with its E175 was underlined by a deal from SkyWest Airlines for up to 110 aircraft. The OEM has secured 150 orders since the start of last year for the GE CF34-powered variant and said it expected this market would “continue for many years”. But Embraer was extremely disappointed to lose out to Airbus in a crucial campaign at LOT for small single-aisles, which signed for up to 84 A220s to replace its E-Jet E1s. The Brazilian OEM hinted that “geopolitics” may have helped sway the decision away from the E-Jet E2 in Toulouse’s favour.

    Supply snags: Despite deliveries being 5% down year-on-year in the first five months of 2025 (243 vs 258), Airbus restated its intention to raise shipments this year by around 50 aircraft to at least 820 units. Commercial chief Christian Scherer pointed to “almost 40 gliders” among the A320neo family production system where aircraft have been rolled out but are awaiting powerplants – specifically CFM Leap-1As. “Were it not for those engineless aircraft our delivery performance would be slightly above plan right now,” he said. In the widebody production system, cabin-equipment supply “remains a little bit of a bottleneck”, added Scherer. Meanwhile, the OEM is gearing up to implement the take-over of former Spirit AeroSystems production sites as part of the US primary supplier’s restructuring and merger with Boeing.

  • Cirium Introduces First AI-Powered Solution for On-Time Performance Analysis

    Jeremy Bowen, Chief Executive Officer, Cirium

    London, 24 June 2025: Cirium, the global leader in aviation analytics, has launched OTP AI, a groundbreaking generative AI-powered solution designed to transform how airlines and airports analyze and enhance their On-Time Performance (OTP). This innovative tool addresses long-standing challenges in operational efficiency and disruption management, offering faster, smarter, and more proactive decision-making capabilities.

    OTP AI sets itself apart by addressing the specific challenges airlines and airports face, such as the time-intensive nature of traditional OTP analysis and the struggle to manage cascading delays caused by factors like weather or technical issues. By using advanced generative AI, the platform transforms complex data into precise insights, enabling operators to identify trends, streamline resources, and make swift decisions that minimize delays and improve the overall passenger experience.

    “Operational disruptions, whether caused by weather, strikes, or unforeseen technical issues, can create a ripple effect across the air travel system,” said Jeremy Bowen, CEO of Cirium. “With OTP AI, we’re equipping the industry with the tools to anticipate these challenges, take swift action, and ultimately deliver a better experience for passengers.”

    A New Standard in Operational Efficiency

    This cutting-edge platform enables aviation stakeholders to move beyond reactive problem-solving to predictive decision-making. Airlines and airports can analyze delay propagation, monitor block times, and assess unplanned disruptions with ease. The tool also supports scenario planning, benchmark analysis, and performance reviews, creating a 360-degree view of operational dynamics.

    For example, an airline experiencing cascading delays due to severe weather can use OTP AI to test and identify possible alternative solutions, minimizing passenger impact and operational costs. Airports could similarly optimize resource allocation, ensuring better alignment with real-time conditions.

    By connecting directly to Cirium Core which includes the OTP data, the solution sets a new standard for accuracy and insight across the aviation value chain.

    Driving Results Across the Aviation Industry

    The launch of OTP AI underscores Cirium’s commitment to driving digital transformation in aviation. Through AI-driven insights, the platform aims to enhance situational awareness, improve operational performance, and support industry players in meeting rising demands for agility and efficiency.

    “Many operational teams today lack the tools to anticipate and mitigate disruptions before they escalate,” Bowen added. “Cirium’s latest solution empowers these teams with data-driven intelligence, enabling them to stay ahead of challenges, reduce delays, and improve decision-making across the board.”

    For more information on Cirium’s OTP AI, visit Cirium.com/OTPAI

    For Cirium media inquiries please contact media@cirium.com

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

  • China Aviation: Airbus & COMAC Rise, Boeing on the Back Foot

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Yuanfei Zhao (Scott) Aviation Analyst
    Yuanfei Zhao (Scott) Aviation Analyst

    Yuanfei Zhao (Scott), Principal Aviation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy


    Ongoing geopolitical tensions between China and the United States – exacerbated by sanctions, trade tariffs, and escalating diplomatic frictions – have significantly impacted Boeing’s commercial aircraft business in China. These macro-level challenges, compounded by internal setbacks such as the prolonged 737 Max issues, have severely restricted Boeing’s ability to deliver new jets and secure fresh orders from Chinese carriers.

    Against this backdrop, 2019 marked a pivotal turning point in the Chinese aviation market: for the first time, the number of single-aisle and twin-aisle Airbus aircraft surpassed that of Boeing in the region. This lead has continued to grow in subsequent years, reflecting not only evolving commercial preferences but also broader geopolitical shifts influencing airline procurement strategies.

    Chart: Chinese airlines’ in-service and stored fleet trend

    Source: Cirium Core. Data includes in-service and stored single-aisle and twin-aisle passenger and freighter jets

    In early June 2025, reports emerged suggesting that China is preparing to place a major aircraft order with Airbus. While some sources anticipate a commitment of around 300 aircraft, others speculate the total could range between 200 and 500 units, comprising a mix of single-aisle and twin-aisle models. These developments align with an upcoming high-level diplomatic visit to China by key European leaders in July. Industry observers widely expect that a formal purchase agreement may be announced during or shortly after the visit, further reinforcing Europe’s expanding aviation partnership with China.

    If this potential order comes to fruition, it will further widen the market share gap between Airbus and Boeing in China, solidifying Airbus’s position as the leading commercial aircraft supplier in the region.

    The accompanying chart below offers a high-level overview of the evolving fleet composition and market dynamics in China, with projected market share changes based on the assumption that all on-order aircraft are delivered. It illustrates three scenarios:

    1. The current in-service and stored fleet operated by Chinese airlines;
    2. The current fleet combined with existing firm aircraft orders; and
    3. The fleet from scenario 2 plus an assumed new Airbus order of 300 single-aisle and 100 twin-aisle aircraft – an average drawn from prevailing market speculation.

    Chart: Chinese fleet share by OEM: scenarios 1, 2 and 3

    Source: Cirium Core. Data includes in-service, stored, and firm orders by airlines for single-aisle and twin-aisle passenger and freighter jets

    It is important to note that this analysis includes only firm orders placed directly by Chinese airlines, excluding those from lessors. The destination and placement of lessor-owned aircraft often fluctuate, making their inclusion uncertain. Additionally, Chinese airlines also have orders that are for unidentified customers by Airbus and Boeing, and these will be additional to this analysis.

    Lessor orders for COMAC aircraft are largely concentrated among Chinese lessors and are expected to be primarily allocated to Chinese airlines in the future. This trend suggests that COMAC’s long-term market share could increase further – alongside anticipated gains for Airbus. Consequently, Boeing’s proportional market share may continue to decline unless there are substantial improvements in its standing within the Chinese market.

    These developments highlight not only a shifting commercial landscape but also the increasingly strategic role that aviation plays in global geopolitics – where aircraft procurement decisions are shaped as much by diplomacy and international alliances as by operational needs and economic considerations.

  • Development of Yuan-Denominated Aircraft Financing Outside China

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Johnny Yung
    Johnny Yung

    Johnny Yung, Senior Aviation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy


    Aircraft are capital-intensive assets and airlines typically employ a range of financing instruments, including debt issuance, finance leases, and operating leases, to fund their fleet requirements. Recently some operators have begun exploring offshore yuan-denominated financing as an alternative to the conventional US Dollar-based structures. However, adoption outside of China remains limited, with only a few carriers—such as Turkish Airlines and Korean Air—reportedly engaging in such arrangements with AVIC Leasing, CCB Leasing, ICBC Leasing and BOCOM Leasing. Broader uptake among major international airlines is expected to take time.

    What are the strategic and financial motivations behind Turkish Airlines and Korean Air adopting yuan-denominated financing?

    The interest rate associated with a specific financing arrangement is typically composed of two components: the risk-free rate and the borrower’s risk premium. While the risk premium remains consistent across different financing currencies, the risk-free rate varies depending on the loan tenor and, more critically, the benchmark rate of the chosen currency. When comparing the US Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) with the People’s Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (LPR), it becomes evident why yuan-denominated financing may offer comparatively lower interest rates.

    Chart 1: The trend of SOFR and 5-Year LPR

    Sources: FOMC, PBOC

    While yuan-denominated financing offers the advantage of lower interest costs, it also introduces potential foreign exchange risk since debt repayments are denominated in yuan, typically not the domestic currency of the airline. Airlines can mitigate this risk by generating yuan revenues.

    According to Cirium FM Traffic data, Korean Air derived approximately USD 470 million for the routes related to China in FY2024. This amount seems adequate to service the debt associated with its yuan-denominated financing for one A350 and one A321neo aircraft. As per Cirium valuations and assuming a 75% loan-to-value, the assets financing requirement here is around USD 162 million.  

    In contrast, Turkish Airlines generated an estimated USD 364 million for China-related routes in FY2024. Although this figure is relatively modest, the airline’s decision to pursue yuan financing for three A350 aircraft is part of a broader strategy to diversify funding sources across multiple currencies. In addition to yuan, Turkish Airlines has secured financing in four other currencies, underscoring its commitment to managing currency risk through diversification.

    Is there potential for increased adoption of yuan-denominated financing in the future?

    Interest rate trend

    According to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) most recent projection released in March 2025, the Federal Funds Rate is expected to decline gradually from the current 4.25% to around 3.1% by 2027. As the cost of U.S. dollar funding trends downward, the relative appeal of yuan-denominated financing may diminish, given the narrowing differential in potential interest cost savings. However, if Chinese interest rates were to follow a similar forward trend then interest might sustain.

    China traffic recovery

    As international air traffic to and from China continues to recover, airlines are positioned to generate increased yuan-denominated revenue. The chart below illustrates the gradual restoration of capacity to China by non-Chinese carriers.

    Chart 2: Capacity to/ from China of non-Chinese carriers

    Source: Cirium Core, Schedule

    Beyond serving as a natural hedge against currency risk, the regulatory challenges associated with repatriating yuan – such as the need for official approvals – further incentivise the use of yuan-denominated financing.

    Next potential candidate?

    From a revenue composition perspective, airlines with higher ticket sales originating from China will potentially be the next candidate as it offers natural hedging and lower interest cost, for example Cathay Pacific, which has already entered the offshore yuan bond market with its debut issuance in 2021. In addition, several Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian carriers have expressed interest in exploring yuan-denominated financing, reflecting growing regional engagement with yuan-based funding solutions.

  • Business Jet Deliveries Set for 11% Growth in 2025

    Daniel Hall
    Daniel Hall

    Daniel Hall, Senior Valuation Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    This piece follows analysis shared within our 14 May 2025 market update webinar: available to watch on-demand.

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy produces annual new delivery forecasts across the commercial, helicopter and business jet markets. In terms of new production, the helicopter and business sectors look to be entering growth mode once again, leaving supply chain woes behind us. For business jets, we believe some 8,700 new aircraft will be handed over in the following 10 years (2025-2034). This is driven by an 11% climb this year alone, driven by new types and product ramp-ups. The following analysis discusses this, and concludes with some thoughts on forecast risks.

    The below chart presents our annual forecast, split by market size segment/category.

    Chart 1: Cirium Ascend Consultancy forecast: new business jet deliveries 2025-2034

    Source: Cirium Ascend Consultancy forecast. Business turboprops not included.

    Here are some key takeaways from our latest forecast.

    Firstly, we expect new deliveries to increase by 11% this year. That is some growth, and we do admit that our forecast did not reach its target last year, owing to production strikes and a slow ramp-up of new products. But commentary from the OEMs suggests that supply chain issues are easing and with new product ramp-ups (such as Gulfstream’s G700 and Dassault’s Falcon 6X), and growth by Textron and Embraer, we feel confident that an 11% improvement will be achieved through 2025.

    Secondly, following this growth year, we forecast a flattish annual growth of approximately 1% thereafter.

    Comparing the next five years with the previous five translates to an overall 22% growth (equating to around 800 units), but almost half of this comes from the long-range category, which we forecast to grow deliveries by 31% alone.

    The light sectors are showing notably little growth over recent history. Honda’s in-development Echelon programme is a slight unknown in terms of production and market demand, but we would not expect Textron (and Embraer) to easily concede market share or units to this.

    Not only is the long-range sector contributing to growth, but it also underpins our forecast by units (29%), and value, at a notable 63% share.

    Chart 2: Forecast split by size sector: deliveries forecast by units and share

    Source: Cirium Ascend Consultancy forecast. Business Turboprops not included.

    Embraer is a growth OEM of note, and our forecast has this manufacturer moving into third position by units. Gulfstream and Dassault have notable product ramp-ups. Although the G650 will see production end this year, the Savannah-based OEM will be keen to get G700s out the door (which we forecast to be delivered at a rate of 3.5 for every G800 unit produced).

    But overall, towards the end of the 10-year period, it is clear that to unlock more production, we need labour to ease and new innovative products to enter the scene. Over 15% of the forecast will be driven by new or to-be-launched types. Delays to their development may shift our forecast to the right.

    The chart below adds our value of deliveries to the forecast. The impact of higher priced aircraft can clearly be seen in the large segment. Together, Gulfstream, Bombardier and Dassault alone are responsible for three-quarters of new delivery backlog value, in 2025 dollars at our Full-Life Base Values. Some $25 billion of business jet aircraft are expected to be delivered this year. That is quite a large financing need even in an industry where it is said that around half of new aircraft purchases are self-financed by cash.

    Chart 3: Forecast split by size sector: deliveries forecast by value and share

    Source: Cirium Ascend Consultancy forecast. Values are Full-Life Base Value. Business Turboprops not included.

    An Industry Facing Plateau or Structural Change?

    Why do we have lower forecast growth after 2025? We can look at the lack of new aircraft development after the Falcon 10X and Honda Echelon (both due in the 2027-2029 timeframe). We may have reached a development peak in terms of range, speed and cabin size, with current technology. Arguably a step change in new engine technology is needed to pivot the industry with something new. It could be said that with conventional technology, we may only see notable annual growth by other world regions taking more deliveries, particularly those underpinned by strong high net worth individual (HNWI) growth (e.g., India, China).

    Backlogs are likely to stay fairly flat through this year. The major manufacturers are currently reporting book-to-bill ratios of around 1:1 (meaning one order for each delivery). This maintains them at around two years of backlog, which we think manufacturers prefer for planning purposes. Most OEMs seem hesitant to increase production rates; of course we know some are capable of more production (based on past performance), but local labour constraints may be holding them back. Perhaps a structural change is in play, backlogs will be maintained, and we won’t move back to the days of highly competitive pricing and “white tail” risk.

    Forecast Risks, and 2025 So Far

    As of late May 2025, Q1 2025 new deliveries are 15% up on Q1 2024, which is impressive growth and looks supportive of our forecast projection. This has been driven by a range of factors, some discussed above (e.g., general product ramp-ups), but also by built and undelivered aircraft last year (G700 & Falcon 6X). Of interest were comments by Embraer that they are working to balance their delivery stream across the full year rather than their historically heavy weighting in Q4.

    There are risks, however. Tariffs have the ability to not only disrupt demand but also supply (of parts, raw materials). Many scenarios could play out, and the tariffs themselves are ever-changing. It may have been that a front-loading of deliveries helped a bump (before impacting an international transfer of an asset), but tariffs may later cause aircraft deferrals and we could see deliveries impacted in Q2 numbers.

    During the webinar, we discussed the growth of the fractional operator segment. This has undoubtedly benefitted the forecast for popular types in that segment, for instance, the Phenom 300, Citation Latitude, Challenger 3500 and Praetor series. Any curtailment of growth could impact the demand/supply balance for those models, impacting Bombardier, Cessna and Embraer. But likewise, brand loyalty is typically strong and higher-hours fractional users who want to go into full ownership are likely to stick with the same product they are used to experiencing, representing an opportunity for these OEMs.

    About Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s Business Jet Delivery Forecast

    • Our independent new delivery forecast is our opinion on business jet deliveries for the upcoming 20 years, broken down by manufacturer, type and size segment. We also provide the value of deliveries forecast.
    • The forecast can be bespoke, and go into greater levels of detail (including historical analysis, forecast methodology, commentary by size category/competitive landscape and OEM summary).
    • While the forecast above is for business jets only, we can offer services in the business turboprop marketplace.

    To request your copy of the Business Jet Delivery Forecast, enquire here.

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is available for expert advisory, aircraft, helicopter and engine valuations, as well as market commentaries across various asset classes. We have a team consisting of both ISTAT-certified and ASA-accredited appraisers spread across the globe with offices in North America, Europe and Asia. We are also able to provide ASA appraisals conforming to USPAP standards.

  • Cirium and AFRAA Partnership to Drive Growth in African Aviation

    London, 14 May 2025 – Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, has announced a strategic data partnership with the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) – the leading trade Association for African airlines. The partnership is aimed at enhancing analytical frameworks to be more comprehensive for the African air transport market and support growth across the sector in Africa.

    This collaboration comes at a pivotal time for African aviation. International passenger flights to and from Africa increased by 27% year-on-year in 2024, according to Cirium data, marking a significant recovery and expansion of regional connectivity. With access to Cirium’s scheduling, fleet, and market intelligence tools, AFRAA will enrich its data reporting to better support it’s  member airlines and drive sustainable growth across the continent.

    “International traffic to and from Africa is experiencing rapid growth, presenting a major opportunity for the continent’s airlines,” said Jeremy Bowen, CEO of Cirium. “By leveraging Cirium’s world-class data and AFRAA’s industry leadership, we’re enabling airlines to make smarter, faster, and more sustainable decisions that will shape the future of African aviation.”

    Cirium’s powerful analytics solutions, including Diio SRS Analyzer for strategic scheduling insights, Ascend Fleets Analyzer for fleet planning and sustainability initiatives, and the Cirium Dashboard for real-time market intelligence and expert analysis, will enhance AFRAA’s industry analysis and reporting. These insights enable airlines to operate more efficiently, respond quickly to market changes, and unlock new revenue opportunities.

    Speaking at the partnership announcement, AFRAA Secretary General, Mr. Abderahmane Berthé stated:

    “The use of data-driven tools is critical to providing intelligence to airlines, airports, governments, regulators and other industry stakeholders for decision-making that will sustain and boost aviation in Africa. Data is the cornerstone of decision-making. Partnering with Cirium accelerates our ability to meet data needs, ensuring we stay ahead in a rapidly evolving market.”

    This partnership aligns with AFRAA’s 2025 strategy to improve connectivity, reduce operational costs, boost sustainability, and drive digital transformation across Africa’s aviation sector.

    For Cirium media inquiries please contact media@cirium.com

    About Cirium
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, delivering powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial institutions. Cirium provides the clarity and intelligence needed to optimize operations, make informed decisions and accelerate revenue growth. Cirium is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business. For more information, visit www.cirium.com or follow Cirium on LinkedIn.

    About AFRAA
    The African Airlines Association (AFRAA) is the leading trade association of African airlines.  Founded in Accra, Ghana, in April 1968, and headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, AFRAA’s mission is to promote, serve African Airlines and champion Africa’s aviation industry. The Association envisions a sustainable, interconnected and affordable Air Transport industry in Africa where African Airlines become key players and drivers to African economic development. AFRAA membership cuts across the entire continent and includes all the major intercontinental African operators. The Association members represent over 85% of total international traffic carried by African airlines. Facebook, LinkedIn, X and YouTube.

    For more information, please contact: AFRAA: afraa@afraa.org

  • Saab 340A and B – the Tale of Two Lifecycles

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Eleni Maragkou, Valuations Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Same family, different tales. The Saab 340A and 340B, are at very different stages in their lifecycle. While the 340A is fading fast, the 340B powered by the General Electric CT7-9B engine continues to show signs of endurance in a tough regional market.  

    As of today, the in-service Saab 340 family fleet is around 160 aircraft, with approximately 180 having been retired. As shown in the graph below, the Saab 340B passenger fleet is almost evenly split between aircraft in-service and those in storage, highlighting that a sizable portion of the fleet is not in use. While the Saab 340A also has a significant portion of the fleet in storage, overall, it has a much smaller operational presence with only around 40 aircraft remaining in use. Although the proportion of retirements between the 340A and 340B are on a similar level, the 340Bs 85 retirements, are only 38% of its total fleet, however, given the large numbers of the 340B in storage, we would expect to see more of them retiring going forward.

    Figure 1. The current in service and storage fleet of Saab 340 (Fleets Analyzer, Cirium 2025)

    The Saab 340A is reaching the end of its useful life with only around ten passenger aircraft remaining in service. The challenge being there are very few CT7-5A engines left in the market. Engine shops do not prioritise that engine due to the lack of life limited parts and materials. With a limited operational future the variant is well within the sunset phase.

    But What Exactly is the “Sunset Phase”?

    For aircraft engines, it marks the final stage of an engine type’s life: declining demand, minimal parts support, higher maintenance costs, and a shrinking operator base marking the end of its commercial relevance. For the 340A, that time is the next two to three years.

    The CT7-9B engine on the other hand, remains operationally relevant, serving the Saab 340B Fleet exclusively. While the average age of the fleet for this type is 30 years old, the retirement trend for the Saab 340Bs is not yet substantial. Operators across North America and Canada continue to utilise the aircraft and the engines. The Half-Life Market Values for CT7-9B engines rose to over $600k in March 2025, with overhaul costs climbing to around $1m, driven by continued demand and availability constrains.

    Cargo conversions temporarily boosted interest in the -340B engine, though that trend has slowed according to multiple market sources. Viable conversion candidates are fewer, and some airframes require more maintenance than they are worth.

    The Verdict?

    Figure 2. A typical profile of the engine value life cycle (Cirium Ascend Methodology 2025)

    The graph in Figure 2.  shows the typical profile of the engine value life cycle,with the Saab 340A fleet reaching an average age close to 40 years old and few still in service, the CT7-5A is very much at the end of the retirement phase of the life cycle, sunsetting rapidly.

    On the other hand, the Saab 340B is still very much in the daylight, while not in the prime of its life it is far from obsolete. Considering recent value changes and fleet status of the 340B, this would place the CT7-9B in the secondary phase of the engine life cycle.

  • Data-Driven Operations Fuel Middle East Aviation Growth

    Navigating Disruption in a High-Growth Market

    The Middle East aviation sector faced significant operational disruptions in 2024, with severe weather events and geopolitical tensions leading to widespread delays and cancellations. Notably, Dubai International Airport was forced to cancel 31% of flights during historic flooding between April 15-17. The cost of these disruptions can be substantial, with the estimated cost of roughly 8% of airline revenues.

    Remarkable Passenger Growth

    Despite the disruptions that did occur in 2024, the region continued to grow at a remarkable rate.

    Air travel demand continued to soar for the Middle East, with passenger figures to the Middle East up 18% over 2019 and a 37% rise in revenues. 

    Major airports in Jeddah, Abu Dhabi, and Medinah saw the steepest rises, with traffic up 56% to King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah and up 65% to Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi.

    Operational Excellence and On-Time Performance

    Amid rising passenger volumes, a focus on operational excellence differentiated carriers like Oman Air, which led the region with an +90% on-time performance in 2024 arrivals. The airline has continued to operate with a high on-time arrival percentage even after it expanded its network and schedule.

    The Imperative for Data-Driven Operations

    Persistent disruption, particularly from unpredictable events like extreme weather, underscores the need for robust data analytics integration within airline and airport operations. Leveraging aviation data analytics enhances day-to-day situational awareness, aids disruption diagnosis, and streamlines workflows—from forecasting demand to optimizing staff and resource allocation. Airlines and airports using advanced analytics can respond faster and more effectively to disruptions, reducing costs, improving passengers’ experiences, and benchmarking their performance to inform future operational planning.

    The Road Ahead for Middle East Aviation

    As the Middle East region continues to invest in infrastructure and connectivity, digital transformation emerges as a critical strategy for sustaining growth and minimizing the cost of disruption. Adopting a data-driven approach allows organizations to optimize planning, drive efficiency, and ensure operational resilience.

    Industry professionals seeking actionable insights and strategies for leveraging data-driven aviation operations won’t want to miss Cirium’s Piyush Chawla in conversation with STR’s Sarah Duignan on the Global Stage at the Arabian Travel Market, Wednesday, April 30 at 11:05.

    Digital transformation is the path to aviation success. The future belongs to those who transform. 

  • Advanced Air Mobility – Snapshot April 2025

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    YIRU ZHANG
    Yuri Zhang

    Yiru Zhang, Senior Valuation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    The Cirium Ascend Consultancy team has seen continuing dynamic developments in the advanced air mobility sector since the beginning of the year. To date, the Cirium team has registered over 11,000 order commitments for 27 different eVTOL OEMs, reflecting a continued market interest despite the hurdles.

    Data coverage includes:

    MARKET GROUPINGMANUFACTURERTYPECOMMENT
    Regional Electric – SmallAura AeroERAProgram temporarily paused
    Regional Electric – SmallHeart AerospaceES-30
    Regional Electric – SmallLYTE AviationLA-44 Skybus
    Regional Electric – SmallMaeve AerospaceMaeve 01 
    Regional Electric – SmallJektaPHA-ZE 100
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAerofugiaAE200
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityARC Aero SystemsLinx P9 
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityDufour AerospaceAero3
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityBETA TechnologiesALIA-250
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityManta AircraftANN2
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAscendance Flight TechnologiesAtea
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOverair IncButterfly
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityHorizon AircraftCavorite X7
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityPlanaCopterPlane CP-01
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityWisk Aero LLCCora
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityTCab TechE20 eVTOL
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityThe ePlane Companye200XNewly added
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEhangEH216
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEve Air MobilityEve
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityCrisalion MobilityIntegrity
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJaunt Air MobilityJourney
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityLilium GmbHLilium JetFiled for bankruptcy as of Feb 2025
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityArcher AviationMidnight
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityOdys AviationOdys eVTOL
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAutoFlightProsperity 1
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityJoby AviationS4
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySkyDriveSD-05
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilitySirius AviationSirius Jet
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityXTI Aircraft CompanyTriFan 600
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityAMSL AeroVertiia
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloCityIn Insolvency proceeding as of Dec 2024
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVolocopter GmbHVoloConnectIn Insolvency proceeding as of Dec 2024
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityEhangVT-30
    eVTOL – Urban Air MobilityVertical Aerospace Group LtdVX4
    eVTOL – UAV/UASBETA TechnologiesALIA-250c
    Business Electric – Single EngineVoltAeroCassio 330
    Business Electric – Single EngineBETA TechnologiesCX300
    Business Electric – Multi EngineEviationAlice
    Business Electric – Multi EngineBeyond AeroBYA-1Newly added
    Business Electric – Multi EngineBye AerospaceeFlyer 800
    Business Electric – Multi EngineElectraElectra eSTOL
    Business Electric – Multi EngineElectronElectron 5
    Business Electric – Multi EngineElflyNoemiNewly added
    Business Electric – Multi EngineAirflowM200
    Business Electric – Multi EngineMD AircraftMDA1 

    The eVTOL-Urban Air Mobility sector remains the most active segment of the market. The space now has a total of just under 11,000 order commitments and about 40 in-service EH216s captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer. The drop in total order commitments was largely caused by the cancellation of over 800 Lilium Jet and 140 VX4 order commitments. Eve Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to lead the sector with 2,950 and 1,400 commitments respectively.

    Source: Cirium fleets data

    The global market for eVTOLs shows a varied regional distribution. Since surpassing North America as the region with the most orders at the end of 2024, APAC remains its leading position, with a total of 3,777 order commitments, representing a 34% share.

    Source: Cirium fleets data

    Source: Cirium fleets data

    Latest Developments in Urban Air Mobility

    • Lilium filed for insolvency for the second time: ​In February 2025, German electric air taxi developer Lilium filed for insolvency for the second time, following a series of financial setbacks. The company’s German subsidiaries had in October 2024 entered insolvency after failing to obtain essential funding, including a €50 million loan guarantee from the Bavarian government.

    In January 2025, Lilium announced a new investor in Mobile Uplift – a consortium of investors from Europe and North America – which intended to acquire the operating assets of the subsidiaries Lilium GmbH and Lilium eAircraft GmbH. However, the acquisition failed and in February 2025, Lilium again filed for insolvency.

    Lilium GmbH was founded in 2015. The aircraft, the Lilium Jet, was powered by 36 electrical motors and was intended to accommodate six passengers and one pilot. The Lilium Jet’s entry into service was scheduled for 2026. Media reports indicate that the shutdown of operations affected around 750 employees.

    • Blade’s commuter helicopter service: In January 2025, Blade introduced a new commuter service offering $95 helicopter rides from Long Island and New Jersey to Manhattan’s West Side. This reflects the growing demand for urban air transport in major metropolitan areas such as New York City. Blade currently holds 50 order commitments for Beta Technologies’ ALIA-250 and Wisk Aero’s Cora. Additionally, Blade serves as a key target operator for numerous eVTOL OEMs and has established partnerships with several of them. The expansion of Blade’s routes could also provide benefits for the future adoption and operation of eVTOL aircraft.

    Multi-Engine Business Electric

    • Electra’s EL-2 Goldfinch hybrid-electric short takeoff and landing (eSTOL)continues to lead in this sector, with total order commitments of 1,348.
    • Aura Aero recentlypushed back its targeted entry into service for its ERA design from 2028 to “before 2030”. The ERA design is a hybrid using kerosene, rather than a fully electric aircraft.
    • Heart Aerospace successfully conducted initial ground tests of its ES-30 demonstrator in 2024’s third quarter. A maiden flight is scheduled for later this year. The ES-30 order backlog now stands at 532, reflecting continued interest in regional hybrid-electric aircraft solutions.
    • In February, Eviation Aircraft paused work on its nine-passenger Alice design as it sought new investment. The company has reportedly laid off 30 employees. Eviation chief executive Andre Stein told Geekwire that the temporary pause was necessary to focus on “identifying the right long-term partnerships to help us make electric commercial regional flight a reality”, adding: “We at Eviation are proud of what we have accomplished in advancing electric flight. This decision was not made lightly.”

    Source: Cirium fleets data

    Financial and regulatory challenges persist in the AAM sector, but the industry’s commitment to achieving commercial success remains strong. The next few years will be pivotal in identifying which OEMs can effectively overcome these obstacles and establish themselves as leaders in this rapidly evolving market.

    The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us.

    Sara Dhariwal

    Lead Appraiser – Helicopters & AAM

    Ascend analyst Tim Chun Hing Li
    Ascend analyst Tim Chun Hing Li

    Tim Chun-hing Li

    Aviation Analyst

    YIRU ZHANG
    YIRU ZHANG

    Yuri Zhang

    Senior Valuations Analyst

    Eric Tamang
    Eric Tamang

    Eric Tamang

    Valuations Analyst

  • How Trade Policy Shifts Are Shaping Global Aviation

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Joanna Lu
    Joanna Lu

    Joanna Lu, Head of Consultancy Asia, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    Following the seismic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, which brought global travel to a near standstill, the industry is now facing a different kind of disruption — one with potentially longer-lasting consequences. The rise of trade protectionism and tariff actions in key economies is contributing to a broader shift in global dynamics that may reshape supply chains, travel patterns, and aviation strategies in the years ahead.

    Unlike Covid, which caused a sharp but time-bound crisis followed by a defined recovery path, the impact of trade-related policy shifts appears more gradual — and potentially more difficult to reverse. If these changes trigger a prolonged decoupling of global economies, they may leave a lasting mark on the structure of international aviation — from network strategies and passenger demand to fleet deployment and aircraft economics.

    The Legacy of Covid and a New Wave of Fragmentation

    In many ways, the current landscape is an extension of the lessons and adaptations triggered by Covid-19. The pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of overreliance on global systems. As a result, businesses and governments have become more cautious, and some of that caution is now being formalized into policy through tariffs, trade barriers, and revised sourcing strategies.

    This environment may be starting to create structural pressure points for aviation in two key areas:

    1. Passenger Travel: Premium Travel Redefined

    Corporate and traditional business travel continues to face scrutiny from cost-conscious companies. While premium travel demand overall has rebounded, much of this recovery appears to be driven by premium leisure rather than corporate activity — a trend noted by several airlines in the U.S. and Europe.

    However, real passenger traffic data from Cirium FM Traffic reveals that the share of passengers flying in premium cabins (First, Business, and Premium Economy) has not returned to pre-pandemic levels for most global network carriers — suggesting that corporate travel recovery remains uneven and fragile.

    Key observations:

    • Singapore Airlines (SQ) led the group in premium traffic share but peaked in 2022, with a decline through 2024.
    • Cathay Pacific (CX) saw a temporary bump in 2022, but premium share has returned to 2019 levels.
    • British Airways (BA) and Delta (DL) saw stable or declining shares, pointing to a structural shift in the premium travel mix.

    Chart: Premium Cabin Share of Total Traffic (2019–2024)

    Source: Cirium Core

    These trends suggest that while pricing and cabin revenue may have recovered, the volume of premium passengers remains below pre-Covid norms. This has important implications for network planning, cabin configuration, and loyalty program strategies.

    2. Air Cargo: A Shifting Geopolitical Footprint

    Air cargo demand is also evolving as global manufacturers reassess supply chains in light of geopolitical uncertainty. There is growing interest in “friendshoring” and “nearshoring” — particularly in the tech and automotive sectors — as companies seek to reduce overreliance on single-country sourcing models.

    For example, Apple’s expansion of manufacturing in India and Vietnam reflects a broader trend of diversifying away from China-centric production. While this has not yet resulted in major shifts in air cargo traffic flows, it signals a potential realignment of freight corridors toward new Asia–Asia and Asia–Middle East lanes.

    Gradual but Structural Change

    Structural changes such as these tend to unfold slowly, and their effects may only become fully visible in the data over time. However, early indicators — including shifts in premium travel composition and supply chain restructuring — suggest a gradual rebalancing of global aviation is already underway:

    • A pivot away from long-haul intercontinental traffic toward more regionalized operations
    • Increasing reliance on agile fleet strategies, particularly longer-range single-aisle aircraft
    • A growing need for scenario-based planning amid continued trade and policy fragmentation

    Chart: Average Stage Length (KM) – Scheduled Passenger vs. Cargo Flights (YE Apr 2019-2025)

    Source: Cirium Core

    Passenger flight distances are projected to increase modestly, reaching 1,480 km by YE April 2025 — slightly above 2019 levels. Cargo flights have shown more volatility but continue to maintain longer average stage lengths, indicating that major freight corridors remain active in the near term. These trends suggest that while the impact of tariff-driven fragmentation is still emerging, its eventual implications for route planning and aircraft deployment could be significant.

    Assessing Network Strategy: The Regional Pivot

    One way to observe strategic shifts in aviation is through changing network patterns. Cirium schedule data shows that several major carriers — including Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, and United Airlines — have increased the share of operations on routes under 5,000 km since 2021.

    This reflects a broader trend: in times of macro uncertainty, regional flying becomes a lower-risk, more manageable option. For Asia-based carriers especially, the data suggests a strategic pivot toward intra-Asia routes as a foundation for building resilience and capturing regional growth.

    For instance, Cathay Pacific reported a full-year profit of HK$9.9 billion in 2024, its second consecutive year in the black. A key factor was its strengthened focus on regional connectivity, particularly with mainland China and other parts of Asia. By increasing the proportion of flights under 5,000 km, Cathay improved operational efficiency and supported scalable recovery — even as long-haul markets remain volatile.

    Chart: Scheduled Regional Flights Share (<5000km) by Selected Network Airlines

    Source: Cirium Core

    This shift is not just tactical — it is strategic:

    • Regional routes allow airlines to adapt quickly to regulatory or demand changes
    • They come with lower operational costs
    • They align with the growth of intra-regional trade and tourism

    Low-cost and regional carriers may be best positioned to benefit, while long-haul carriers may face continued pressure to right-size networks and rethink fleet composition.

    Aircraft Implications: Deployment, Not Just Demand

    While it may take time for these shifts to be fully reflected in aircraft valuations, their operational implications are already emerging:

    • Single-aisle aircraft, especially long-range variants, are becoming increasingly relevant due to their flexibility across both domestic and regional international routes.
    • Widebody aircraft, particularly older models, may struggle to achieve consistent deployment without a clear long-haul recovery.

    Even in the absence of clear pricing trends, there is a growing need for conservative long-haul fleet planning and greater adaptability in deployment strategies.

    Looking Ahead: Key Questions for Industry Stakeholders

    The shift toward a more fragmented and regionalized world raises critical questions:

    • How diversified is your network strategy across regional and long-haul markets?
    • Are your fleet plans agile enough to adapt to a prolonged long-haul demand recovery?
    • How are trade policy shifts influencing your procurement, partnerships, and alliances?

    In an era of policy divergence and evolving alliances, the ability to adapt will increasingly define competitive advantage. Aviation strategies must reflect not only traveler behavior but also broader political and economic signals.

    At Cirium, we continue to track these evolving patterns through flights, schedule, and fleet data. While some trends will take time to fully materialize, the signals today point to a future where regional agility may matter more than global reach, and where strategic flexibility becomes a core competitive differentiator.

    We support our clients with scenario-based analysis and data-led insights to help them navigate uncertainty and plan with confidence.

  • Copenhagen Optimization, Azinq, & Cirium Advance Airport Ops

    London, 8 April 2025: Aviation analytics firm, Cirium, has entered into an integration partnership with two leading airport technology providers, Copenhagen Optimization and Azinq, to enable airport operations and border control to adopt enhanced data integration and automation, driving multiple operational efficiencies.

    This new agreement brings together Cirium’s advanced analytics with Copenhagen Optimization and Azinq’s leading technology to improve airport efficiency, leading to time and resource savings and an enhanced passenger experience.

    This out-of-the box solution enables airports and customs, border protection and security agencies to seamlessly integrate Cirium’s proprietary schedules, flight data and fleet information into their operating systems. By integrating the data, businesses can accelerate data-driven decision-making to ensure smooth airport operations, a more reliable service and suitable resource planning.

    Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO said, “We’re thrilled to be partnering with Copenhagen Optimization and Azinq, marking the first integration partnership of its kind for Cirium. Together, we will enable airports and customs and border control agencies to make more informed decisions at speed through the combination of innovative software and Cirium’s advanced analytics – saving valuable time for everyone involved”.

    Over the past few years, global airports have continued to implement innovative technologies and strategies across their infrastructures to enhance operations. The uptake and implementation of such technologies, however, has been slow, meaning airport operations will hugely benefit from this type of partnership.

    Airports that embrace this integrated and connected way of using data analytics can implement various solutions to more effectively manage operations – running passenger predictions, automating data for resource planning, monitoring airport-specific flight data to mitigate disruption and more. 

    The coming together of the three companies, expands upon the existing collaboration between Copenhagen Optimization and Azinq for airport flight schedule management and seasonal planning solutions.

    “Optimizing airport operations requires access to the most precise and timely data available,” said Kasper Hounsgaard, CoCEO and founder of Copenhagen Optimization.

    “By integrating Cirium’s trusted flight schedules into Better Airport®, we empower airports to make better decisions, reduce operational disruptions, and enhance the overall passenger experience. Together with Cirium and Azinq, we are committed to provide airports with an unparalleled level of forecasting accuracy and efficiency.”

    Chris Taylor, Azinq CEO said: “Our approach, through our Airport Hive ® suite, has always been to facilitate seamless integration, flexibility and scalability in airport operations. By collaborating with Cirium we can take this even further, delivering the industry’s leading analytics through our dynamic operational platform”. This builds on our already stronger partnership with Copenhagen Optimization and our strong emphasis on partnerships and integration.

    Copenhagen Optimization and Azinq will seamlessly integrate Cirium’s data and analytics into their software solutions through connecting to the Cirium Sky Warehouse and Cirium Sky APIs.

    To find out more about integrating Cirium analytics through data cloud and APIs visit: cirium.com/analytics-services/data-cloud-api/

    For Cirium media inquiries please contact media@cirium.com

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

    Copenhagen Optimization
    A global software-as-a-service platform with a passion for making airport operations simple and efficient. The software solution Better Airport® is a cloud-based solution that uses data and a combination of AI and advanced mathematical algorithms to bring clarity and confidence to plans, data, and complex decision-making, empowering airports to better predict, operate, and optimize. Better Airport is currently deployed and live in operations in more than 40 medium and large airports globally, spanning across USA, Canada, Europe, Asia, and now also Australia.

    Azinq
    Azinq’s “Airport Hive” is a cloud-based, modular SaaS suite of airport operational products designed to replace traditional Airport Operational Databases (AODB). Airport Hive modules offer rich functionality for managing flight schedules, operational flight information, fixed resources, reference data, reporting and aeronautical billing. Airport Hive is built using event driven microservices architecture.  Therefore, all data is available through real-time data streaming and REST APIs, enabling systems to connect and easily share data effortlessly.