Category: Ascend Consultancy

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Thomas Kaplan, Senior Valuations Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

News that AirAsia had signed for up to 70 A321XLRs earlier this month certainly raised eyebrows. An airline that already has such a large backlog, and which is still emerging from restructuring, should not, on the face of it, be adding more orders. Reading beyond the headlines, however, the 70 A321XLRs are only commitments, not firm orders. AirAsia Group’s firm orderbook stands at 402 aircraft, all A321neos (including 20 XLRs) save for 15 A330neos. Its in-service passenger fleet comprises only 219 aircraft (mostly A320-family jets, plus 24 A330neos), which is still fewer than the 240+ it was operating in 2019.

In 2015, we prepared a slide deck showing the airlines in Asia-Pacific that had orderbooks far larger than their in-service fleets. Two airlines were outliers: Lion Air and AirAsia. Our message at the time was these airlines had managed double-digit growth rates in the past and it was theoretically possible for them to absorb their orderbooks if they managed to continue the same growth trend.

There were reasons to be optimistic about Southeast Asia’s air travel market. The 640 million people spread across islands and narrow peninsulas were getting richer and they’d sooner or later take a flight. Tourism was booming, and it seemed Chinese tourists would provide an endless source of demand. The ultra low-cost carrier (ULCC) model applied by AirAsia and Lion Air was seen as the best way to capture and drive that growth.

Ultimately, the story of fast-paced growth was not to last. Economic and geopolitical factors along with the competitive dynamics of a ULCC turf war all contributed to a decade of slowed growth.

The chart below shows the compound annual growth rate of the in-service narrowbody passenger jet fleet of Southeast Asian airlines with the largest orderbooks, compared with the region’s overall fleet growth. Looking at five-year periods (but shifting 2020 to 2019 in order to isolate pre-pandemic figures), we can see 2005-2015 was a time of very rapid growth for AirAsia and Lion Air with sustained periods of over 20% annual growth. The Southeast Asian fleet also grew at around 10% per year throughout that decade.

The period of 2015-2019 brought a marked reduction, to single-digit levels, with AirAsia’s narrowbody fleet growing at the same pace as the rest of the region’s fleets. VietJet, which was Vietnam’s ULCC, tripled in size from 24 to 76 aircraft, but added fewer aircraft than Lion Air did and only slightly more than AirAsia.

Since 2019, growth has been a struggle for all these players. Over the past six years, the Southeast Asian narrowbody jet fleet actually shrunk at a rate of 1% per year, and the highest ULCC compound annual growth rate was VietJet’s 3%, a far cry from the >20% the region’s high-flyers had achieved in the past.  

Filters: Narrowbody jets, passenger usage, years calculated as 1 July, company category Airlines. Southeast Asia is defined as: Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

The stalled growth raises questions about the remaining substantial orderbook. Southeast Asian Airlines have 1,366 narrowbody passenger jets on order, representing 144% of the current in-service fleet. By comparison, the world’s backlog share of in-service narrowbody fleet is only 66%.  Large Southeast Asian ULCCs’ backlog can be 180% to over 300% of their in-service fleets, which are about the same level as they were 10 years ago. The chart below shows this, while omitting the pandemic years in which the temporary parking of aircraft led to a small in-service fleet, artificially inflating orderbook share.

Filters: Narrowbody jets, passenger usage, years calculated as 1 July, company category Airlines. Southeast Asia is defined as: Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

Southeast Asian airlines are not taking deliveries fast enough to make a dent in their orderbooks and bring them back to stable levels. Supply chain issues that have been plaguing the industry are partially to blame, but the slowing fleet growth began before the pandemic and the Max grounding. Southeast Asia’s peak for passenger narrowbody jet deliveries was back in 2014 at 126. That is more than has been delivered since the start of 2020.

A replacement cycle rather than a growth cycle may finally drive deliveries, but there are problems with orders placed so far in the past. AirAsia placed a massive order for 200 A320neos back in 2011. To date, only 55 A320neo family aircraft have been delivered to the group. It may have received a good deal from Airbus at the time, but what does 14+ years of escalation do to delivery pricing? Orders were likely renegotiated during the pandemic as the group also went through general restructuring, but escalation continues to increase the eventual delivery pricing.

Southeast Asia is not the only place with a very large narrowbody jet orderbook as a share of in-service fleets. India, Saudi Arabia and Hungary (home to Wizz Air) stand out with orderbook shares at over 200%. It can be argued these have growth potential in different ways, but the ULCCs of Southeast Asia appear to have over-ordered given the trend of the last decade.

This does not risk causing global oversupply, as OEMs cannot deliver fast enough to meet the global demand in any case. However, the backlog increases the risk for those airlines with growing liabilities in terms of escalating delivery pricing in an ultra-competitive market which appears not to be growing as fast as their ambitions.

Commercial aviation faces a complex landscape in 2025, showing clear momentum while facing new challenges that hold the potential to reshape the sector’s trajectory.

In Commercial aviation in 2025: cruising or climbing?, MUFG’s Head of Aviation Research joined Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s Max Kingsley-Jones and Sofia Zoidou to explore the key factors shaping the industry’s path forward. In a lively and wide-ranging discussion, they shared data, insights and perspectives on commercial aviation’s outlook in the near-term and beyond.

Tariffs Create Industry-Wide Uncertainty

Trade tensions dominated much of the discussion, with tariffs emerging as a significant and wide-ranging risk factor. Max Kingsley-Jones emphasized that “tariffs pose a risk to all the parameters, be it demand, supply, and also to aircraft values.” He pointed to slowing demand for cargo already showing in tracking data, with international cargo flights demonstrating a sustained year-on-year decline since mid-May in markets touching North America.

On the risk to aircraft values, Max explained that new aircraft values are unlikely to increase due to the tariff themselves, as this ‘tax’ is not an intrinsic part of the asset’s value. However, if tariffs cause a reduction in new aircraft deliveries, that will further tighten supply and increase positive pressure on secondary market values and lease rates.

The ripple effects of tariffs will extend beyond manufacturers. Simon Finn highlighted aviation’s unique vulnerability, noting “it’s difficult to think of another industry that’s more globalised than aviation.” He pointed to how the industry’s interconnectedness leads tariff impacts to cascade throughout the supply chain, forcing manufacturers to determine what is passed onto the customer, and if they can’t, how to absorb the costs themselves.

Production Recovery Faces Continued Delays

Despite ongoing efforts to scale production, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) remain behind their pre-pandemic output levels. The industry continues to grapple with supply chain constraints that have pushed full recovery timelines from 2025 to 2026.

Current projections show the challenge ahead. Max noted that manufacturers “are still going to be behind in 2025,” compared to their stated targets, with much depending on supply chain. Cirium recently reduced its 2025 delivery projection by 3% as these issues persist, with only 40% of the revised target achieved during the first six months.

Airbus faces particular scrutiny in meeting delivery targets. The company delivered 232 A320neo family aircraft in the first half of 2025, representing about 38% of the full-year forecast. Engine availability remains a bottleneck, with approximately 40 additional aircraft ready for delivery once their CFM LEAP engines arrive.

Boeing’s recovery trajectory appears more promising, though both manufacturers must navigate ongoing supply chain complexities that continue to constrain industry-wide production capacity.

Engine Supply Chain Bottlenecks Persist

Engine availability has emerged as a critical constraint on aircraft deliveries. CFM’s LEAP engines power a significant portion of new aircraft, but supply limitations have created delivery delays across the industry.

The data reveals the scope of this challenge: about 40 aircraft remain as “gliders” awaiting their LEAP engines before delivery completion. CFM accounted for 54% of total A320neo family deliveries in the first half of 2025, highlighting both the engine’s market dominance and the bottleneck’s industry-wide impact.

These engine-related delays contribute to the broader production constraints facing manufacturers as they work to meet airline demand and fulfil existing order backlogs.

Future Aircraft Development Accelerates Despite Current Challenges

Looking ahead, the industry shows signs of preparation for the next generation of commercial aircraft. Both manufacturers and suppliers are advancing technologies that will define aviation’s future, even as current production faces constraints.

Airbus continues developing its next-generation single-aisle aircraft, targeting a launch by 2030 for delivery around 2038. The CFM RISE open-fan engine technology, showcased as a potential powerplant for this program, represents significant advancement in propulsion efficiency.

Simon expressed optimism about engine technology readiness, stating it’s “fair and reasonable to expect the engine manufacturers to push their technologies and have something ready for the early 2030s.”

Market dynamics also support future growth. Airbus and Boeing combined net orders in the first half of 2025 exceeded 1,000, approaching the full-year 2024 total of 1,171. This strong order momentum, boosted by 300 orders added in June alone, indicates sustained airline confidence in long-term demand recovery.

The emergence of new competitors adds another dimension to future market dynamics. Simon suggested China’s political will to produce an indigenous commercial aircraft may see Comac emerge as a major manufacturer in the long term. He pointed to favourable historic parallels with Airbus’s emergence, but cautioned this may take a decade or more to materialize. “Comac is in a powerful position, but there’s a lot of work to do”.

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Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Yinan Qin, Senior Aviation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

Traffic and Yields

Based on Cirium’s year-to-date cargo flight data for 2025 across the major cargo traffic lanes, we observed a sharp decline in flight activity around February, coinciding with the announcement of new US tariffs. However, flights rebounded quickly as carriers employed front-loading strategies to mitigate tariff impacts before the initially announced effective date in May 2025. The latest data indicates that routes connecting to North America have been the most significantly affected. Unlike passenger flights, cargo operations are more flexible and responsive to market changes. As such, we anticipate continued in-time adjustments in cargo flight schedules in response to tariff developments. However, when and how future tariff issues will be resolved is still unclear at present.

Note: (narrowbody/widebody freighters) * total = all Asia-Pacific and Europe to North America, and Asia-Pacific to Europe
Source: Cirium Core

Global air cargo yields, which are also highly sensitive to market dynamics, were volatile from 2020 to 2022 but have stabilised since late 2023, staying about 33% above pre-Covid levels. On major long-haul routes like Europe-North America, rates are back to pre-pandemic levels, while Asia-Europe and Asia-North America rates remain elevated due to capacity constraints and geopolitical tensions. While the full impact of US tariffs on yields remains to be seen, a return to pre-Covid pricing levels appears unlikely in the near term.

Freighter Fleet Overview

The global freighter fleet has grown steadily over the past two decades. As of mid-2025, there were over 1,400 widebody and more than 800 narrowbody freighters in service. Growth in widebody freighters has been driven by new factory-built freighters, Passenger-to-Freighter (P2F) conversions, and reactivations of aging widebody freighters during the pandemic. Narrowbody freighters also surged in popularity but now face an oversupply issue, with roughly 26% in storage compared to 13% for widebodies — both figures remain above pre-pandemic levels.

A closer examination of the stored fleet reveals that a higher proportion of inactive narrowbody freighters, particularly the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A321, are owned by lessors compared with widebody freighters. Many of the parked narrowbody freighters are awaiting conversion or struggling to secure lessees that would be willing to pay a rent premium for the high feedstock and conversion costs. Additionally, the overheating engine leasing market may also encourage lessors to lease engines out separately to obtain better premiums than leasing the entire freighter.

Note: Widebody and Narrowbody Freighters only
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

P2F conversion activity slowed significantly this year, especially for the Boeing 737-800, with only 15 conversions completed. About 48 aircraft, mostly widebody freighters, are scheduled for conversion in 2025. The conversion backlog has dropped to around 320 units, mainly comprising the Boeing 737-800, Airbus A321, Airbus A330 and Boeing 777-300ER. However, some backlog aircraft may return to passenger service due to rising conversion costs, weakening freighter demand, and supplemental type certificate (STC) approval delays.

Note: Widebody and Narrowbody Freighters only
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

On the factory-built freighter side, about 25 new freighter orders have been placed so far in 2025, mostly for the Airbus A350F and Boeing 777-200LRF. Qatar Airways has placed the largest order for the upcoming 777-8F, while the Airbus A350F has attracted a broader customer base, including lessors. With production of the Boeing 767 and 777 set to end in 2027 and current order slots likely sold out, the market may face a potential supply shortage. Ongoing OEM delivery delays and uncertainty surrounding Boeing 777X certification could further contribute to the anticipated production gap in the short to medium term.

Source: Cirium Core; Press Release

Freighter Valuation and Lease Rate trends

An analysis of Cirium Market Values of selected key 20-year-old freighters indicates that Market Values have remained resilient over time, particularly for widebody freighters. The only exception has been the Boeing 747-400F, whose decline in value is largely due to its Market Value now being primarily driven by engine. A similar trend is observed in the leasing market. Lease Rates have remained generally robust following the volatility experienced during the pandemic.

The sustained demand for widebody freighters, combined with continued delays in the delivery of new factory-built freighter, slow progress in the certification of the Boeing 777 P2F conversion programme, rising maintenance costs, and limited MRO slots are all contributing to the resilience of current Market Values. These factors are expected to continue placing upward pressure on freighter valuations until supply-side constraints ease. As such, we anticipate that Market Values will likely remain robust in the near term.

Note: Value as of June 2025
Source: Cirium Valuation Analyzer

In conclusion, the global air cargo market is expected to remain supply-constrained in the near future, especially for widebody capacity. Despite North America’s status as a key air cargo market segment, routes to North America face the most immediate uncertainty due to tariffs, broader structural factors – including limited production capacity, slowing P2F conversions and elevated yield levels – suggesting a prolonged period of moderate demand and a mix of continued tight supply (widebodies) and gradually decreasing oversupply in the short-to-medium term.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Max Kingsley-Jones Valuations Manager, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

As ever, there was a lot going on around the Le Bourget chalets and halls, but here are some key takeaways:

Airbus’s home run: The “home” OEM made the most noise as is usually the case, announcing some 400 orders and commitments during the show. Boeing, which has traditionally played down its participation in the so-called air-show “order race”, was intentionally quiet this time amid the Air India 787 tragedy which occurred just prior to Le Bourget. Despite Boeing’s low-key approach, total announcements at the show for commercial aircraft amounted to almost 600 orders and commitments.  The show sales tally might have been even higher had anticipated announcements materialised from AirAsia (for “100” small single-aisles – A220s or perhaps E-Jet E2s) and Turkish Airlines (long-expected large order for 737s and Boeing twin-aisles).

Paris 2025 Commercial Aircraft Orders and Commitments

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer/OEMs (*ANA order, not announced by Boeing; ** two DHC orders)

Power play: The CFM RISE open-fan powerplant mock-up was a crowd pleaser on Safran’s stand in Le Bourget’s main exhibition hall. The concept is in the news as a potential front-runner to propel Airbus’s proposed next-generation single-aisle. With Airbus saying it aims to launch the new aircraft by the end of this decade, the open-fan architecture of RISE alongside is under evaluation alongside advanced shrouded-fan design concepts from rival engine OEMs. To that point, Pratt & Whitney outlined the progress of its work with fellow RTX company Collins to ground-test and then fly a hybrid-electric version of the A320neo’s PW1100G. Meanwhile the P&W Canada division disclosed that it is working closely with Airbus’s regional arm ATR to study a hybrid-electric powered turboprop derivative, in what is effectively a reboot of the regional aircraft OEM’s Evo project. This reduced-emissions design had previously been slated for a 2030 debut, but the target now is around 2035.

Big twin: The A350-1000 had a particularly strong show, securing a total of 35 orders and 25 commitments from two clients – Riyadh Air and Starlux Airlines. Sales of the largest A350 variant have been solid this year to date, with the 62 announced so far accounting for two-thirds of the type’s 2025 tally. The variant now holds for almost 40% of the firm backlog for A350 passenger models, which totals around 700 orders. Talk of an A350 stretch has restarted, after previously being mooted a decade ago as the “A350-2000”. A larger derivative of the R-R Trent XWB-powered twinjet, which would pitch Airbus’s biggest aircraft directly at the 777-9, could open the door to an alternative engine option. This could perhaps be an advanced derivative of the Trent, or even a solution from Cincinnati. But would GE have the appetite to support a rival to the GE9X-powered Boeing?

Regional resurgence: ATR and Embraer announced almost 160 orders and commitments between them. US-based public charter operator JSX placed commitments with ATR for 15 firm and 10 options in a deal touted as a potential signal of a turboprop revival in the USA. But there have already been several false dawns in that regard. Meanwhile Embraer’s ongoing success with its E175 was underlined by a deal from SkyWest Airlines for up to 110 aircraft. The OEM has secured 150 orders since the start of last year for the GE CF34-powered variant and said it expected this market would “continue for many years”. But Embraer was extremely disappointed to lose out to Airbus in a crucial campaign at LOT for small single-aisles, which signed for up to 84 A220s to replace its E-Jet E1s. The Brazilian OEM hinted that “geopolitics” may have helped sway the decision away from the E-Jet E2 in Toulouse’s favour.

Supply snags: Despite deliveries being 5% down year-on-year in the first five months of 2025 (243 vs 258), Airbus restated its intention to raise shipments this year by around 50 aircraft to at least 820 units. Commercial chief Christian Scherer pointed to “almost 40 gliders” among the A320neo family production system where aircraft have been rolled out but are awaiting powerplants – specifically CFM Leap-1As. “Were it not for those engineless aircraft our delivery performance would be slightly above plan right now,” he said. In the widebody production system, cabin-equipment supply “remains a little bit of a bottleneck”, added Scherer. Meanwhile, the OEM is gearing up to implement the take-over of former Spirit AeroSystems production sites as part of the US primary supplier’s restructuring and merger with Boeing.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Johnny Yung, Senior Aviation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

Aircraft are capital-intensive assets and airlines typically employ a range of financing instruments, including debt issuance, finance leases, and operating leases, to fund their fleet requirements. Recently some operators have begun exploring offshore yuan-denominated financing as an alternative to the conventional US Dollar-based structures. However, adoption outside of China remains limited, with only a few carriers—such as Turkish Airlines and Korean Air—reportedly engaging in such arrangements with AVIC Leasing, CCB Leasing, ICBC Leasing and BOCOM Leasing. Broader uptake among major international airlines is expected to take time.

What are the strategic and financial motivations behind Turkish Airlines and Korean Air adopting yuan-denominated financing?

The interest rate associated with a specific financing arrangement is typically composed of two components: the risk-free rate and the borrower’s risk premium. While the risk premium remains consistent across different financing currencies, the risk-free rate varies depending on the loan tenor and, more critically, the benchmark rate of the chosen currency. When comparing the US Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) with the People’s Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (LPR), it becomes evident why yuan-denominated financing may offer comparatively lower interest rates.

Chart 1: The trend of SOFR and 5-Year LPR

Sources: FOMC, PBOC

While yuan-denominated financing offers the advantage of lower interest costs, it also introduces potential foreign exchange risk since debt repayments are denominated in yuan, typically not the domestic currency of the airline. Airlines can mitigate this risk by generating yuan revenues.

According to Cirium FM Traffic data, Korean Air derived approximately USD 470 million for the routes related to China in FY2024. This amount seems adequate to service the debt associated with its yuan-denominated financing for one A350 and one A321neo aircraft. As per Cirium valuations and assuming a 75% loan-to-value, the assets financing requirement here is around USD 162 million.  

In contrast, Turkish Airlines generated an estimated USD 364 million for China-related routes in FY2024. Although this figure is relatively modest, the airline’s decision to pursue yuan financing for three A350 aircraft is part of a broader strategy to diversify funding sources across multiple currencies. In addition to yuan, Turkish Airlines has secured financing in four other currencies, underscoring its commitment to managing currency risk through diversification.

Is there potential for increased adoption of yuan-denominated financing in the future?

Interest rate trend

According to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) most recent projection released in March 2025, the Federal Funds Rate is expected to decline gradually from the current 4.25% to around 3.1% by 2027. As the cost of U.S. dollar funding trends downward, the relative appeal of yuan-denominated financing may diminish, given the narrowing differential in potential interest cost savings. However, if Chinese interest rates were to follow a similar forward trend then interest might sustain.

China traffic recovery

As international air traffic to and from China continues to recover, airlines are positioned to generate increased yuan-denominated revenue. The chart below illustrates the gradual restoration of capacity to China by non-Chinese carriers.

Chart 2: Capacity to/ from China of non-Chinese carriers

Source: Cirium Core, Schedule

Beyond serving as a natural hedge against currency risk, the regulatory challenges associated with repatriating yuan – such as the need for official approvals – further incentivise the use of yuan-denominated financing.

Next potential candidate?

From a revenue composition perspective, airlines with higher ticket sales originating from China will potentially be the next candidate as it offers natural hedging and lower interest cost, for example Cathay Pacific, which has already entered the offshore yuan bond market with its debut issuance in 2021. In addition, several Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian carriers have expressed interest in exploring yuan-denominated financing, reflecting growing regional engagement with yuan-based funding solutions.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Eleni Maragkou, Valuations Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

Same family, different tales. The Saab 340A and 340B, are at very different stages in their lifecycle. While the 340A is fading fast, the 340B powered by the General Electric CT7-9B engine continues to show signs of endurance in a tough regional market.  

As of today, the in-service Saab 340 family fleet is around 160 aircraft, with approximately 180 having been retired. As shown in the graph below, the Saab 340B passenger fleet is almost evenly split between aircraft in-service and those in storage, highlighting that a sizable portion of the fleet is not in use. While the Saab 340A also has a significant portion of the fleet in storage, overall, it has a much smaller operational presence with only around 40 aircraft remaining in use. Although the proportion of retirements between the 340A and 340B are on a similar level, the 340Bs 85 retirements, are only 38% of its total fleet, however, given the large numbers of the 340B in storage, we would expect to see more of them retiring going forward.

Figure 1. The current in service and storage fleet of Saab 340 (Fleets Analyzer, Cirium 2025)

The Saab 340A is reaching the end of its useful life with only around ten passenger aircraft remaining in service. The challenge being there are very few CT7-5A engines left in the market. Engine shops do not prioritise that engine due to the lack of life limited parts and materials. With a limited operational future the variant is well within the sunset phase.

But What Exactly is the “Sunset Phase”?

For aircraft engines, it marks the final stage of an engine type’s life: declining demand, minimal parts support, higher maintenance costs, and a shrinking operator base marking the end of its commercial relevance. For the 340A, that time is the next two to three years.

The CT7-9B engine on the other hand, remains operationally relevant, serving the Saab 340B Fleet exclusively. While the average age of the fleet for this type is 30 years old, the retirement trend for the Saab 340Bs is not yet substantial. Operators across North America and Canada continue to utilise the aircraft and the engines. The Half-Life Market Values for CT7-9B engines rose to over $600k in March 2025, with overhaul costs climbing to around $1m, driven by continued demand and availability constrains.

Cargo conversions temporarily boosted interest in the -340B engine, though that trend has slowed according to multiple market sources. Viable conversion candidates are fewer, and some airframes require more maintenance than they are worth.

The Verdict?

Figure 2. A typical profile of the engine value life cycle (Cirium Ascend Methodology 2025)

The graph in Figure 2.  shows the typical profile of the engine value life cycle,with the Saab 340A fleet reaching an average age close to 40 years old and few still in service, the CT7-5A is very much at the end of the retirement phase of the life cycle, sunsetting rapidly.

On the other hand, the Saab 340B is still very much in the daylight, while not in the prime of its life it is far from obsolete. Considering recent value changes and fleet status of the 340B, this would place the CT7-9B in the secondary phase of the engine life cycle.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Yiru Zhang, Senior Valuation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

The Cirium Ascend Consultancy team has seen continuing dynamic developments in the advanced air mobility sector since the beginning of the year. To date, the Cirium team has registered over 11,000 order commitments for 27 different eVTOL OEMs, reflecting a continued market interest despite the hurdles.

Data coverage includes:

The eVTOL-Urban Air Mobility sector remains the most active segment of the market. The space now has a total of just under 11,000 order commitments and about 40 in-service EH216s captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer. The drop in total order commitments was largely caused by the cancellation of over 800 Lilium Jet and 140 VX4 order commitments. Eve Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to lead the sector with 2,950 and 1,400 commitments respectively.

Source: Cirium fleets data

The global market for eVTOLs shows a varied regional distribution. Since surpassing North America as the region with the most orders at the end of 2024, APAC remains its leading position, with a total of 3,777 order commitments, representing a 34% share.

Source: Cirium fleets data

Latest Developments in Urban Air Mobility

• Lilium filed for insolvency for the second time: ​In February 2025, German electric air taxi developer Lilium filed for insolvency for the second time, following a series of financial setbacks. The company’s German subsidiaries had in October 2024 entered insolvency after failing to obtain essential funding, including a €50 million loan guarantee from the Bavarian government.

In January 2025, Lilium announced a new investor in Mobile Uplift – a consortium of investors from Europe and North America – which intended to acquire the operating assets of the subsidiaries Lilium GmbH and Lilium eAircraft GmbH. However, the acquisition failed and in February 2025, Lilium again filed for insolvency.

Lilium GmbH was founded in 2015. The aircraft, the Lilium Jet, was powered by 36 electrical motors and was intended to accommodate six passengers and one pilot. The Lilium Jet’s entry into service was scheduled for 2026. Media reports indicate that the shutdown of operations affected around 750 employees.

• Blade’s commuter helicopter service: In January 2025, Blade introduced a new commuter service offering $95 helicopter rides from Long Island and New Jersey to Manhattan’s West Side. This reflects the growing demand for urban air transport in major metropolitan areas such as New York City. Blade currently holds 50 order commitments for Beta Technologies’ ALIA-250 and Wisk Aero’s Cora. Additionally, Blade serves as a key target operator for numerous eVTOL OEMs and has established partnerships with several of them. The expansion of Blade’s routes could also provide benefits for the future adoption and operation of eVTOL aircraft.

Multi-Engine Business Electric

• Electra’s EL-2 Goldfinch hybrid-electric short takeoff and landing (eSTOL)continues to lead in this sector, with total order commitments of 1,348.
• Aura Aero recentlypushed back its targeted entry into service for its ERA design from 2028 to “before 2030”. The ERA design is a hybrid using kerosene, rather than a fully electric aircraft.
• Heart Aerospace successfully conducted initial ground tests of its ES-30 demonstrator in 2024’s third quarter. A maiden flight is scheduled for later this year. The ES-30 order backlog now stands at 532, reflecting continued interest in regional hybrid-electric aircraft solutions.
• In February, Eviation Aircraft paused work on its nine-passenger Alice design as it sought new investment. The company has reportedly laid off 30 employees. Eviation chief executive Andre Stein told Geekwire that the temporary pause was necessary to focus on “identifying the right long-term partnerships to help us make electric commercial regional flight a reality”, adding: “We at Eviation are proud of what we have accomplished in advancing electric flight. This decision was not made lightly.”

Source: Cirium fleets data

Financial and regulatory challenges persist in the AAM sector, but the industry’s commitment to achieving commercial success remains strong. The next few years will be pivotal in identifying which OEMs can effectively overcome these obstacles and establish themselves as leaders in this rapidly evolving market.

The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us.

Sara Dhariwal

Lead Appraiser – Helicopters & AAM

Tim Chun-hing Li

Aviation Analyst

Yuri Zhang

Senior Valuations Analyst

Eric Tamang

Valuations Analyst

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

There continues to be much talk about commercial aircraft deficits. Cirium Ascend Consultancy has explained before that in reality these amount to a deficit of new aircraft caused by the inability of Airbus and Boeing to increase production as rapidly as they would like, for a multitude of reasons. Last year they delivered 766 and 348 aircraft respectively across their commercial jet programmes, including a handful of aircraft for non-commercial roles. For 2025 Airbus has stated a delivery guidance of 820. Boeing has been silent, but we have a working estimate of 610 units.

As the first quarter closed on Monday, we now have initial estimates for March, and hence first quarter, deliveries. Cirium’s fleet data indicates that Airbus delivered 69 aircraft in the month, including 18 A320s, 33 A321s, 10 A220s, two A330-900s and six A350-900s. Consequently, first quarter shipments total 134. Looking at data for the past 15 years (2010-2024), Airbus has historically averaged 20% of total annual deliveries in the first quarter. Hence, this cumulative 134 Q1 total suggests a 2025 annual total of 660, significantly short of the 820 target.

However, Airbus was clear in its February briefing that we should expect lower deliveries in the early part of the year due to a relative shortage of engine deliveries, particularly CFM Leap for the A320 family. There is some evidence of this through analysis of aircraft backlog and production progress. Cirium data indicates that Airbus currently has 43 A320 family aircraft which have flown but not yet been delivered, whilst further research suggests there are at least 70 which have been rolled out of the respective final assembly lines but which have not yet flown. These include 43 aircraft which Cirium data indicates will be powered by Leap engines when finally delivered.

Hence, Airbus has potential to increase delivery rates in the second quarter (and beyond) as they work through these aircraft. There are also signs of increasing A320 production pace again, with 53 first flights detected in March (compared to 42 in February and only 38 in January; as an aside there were also three on 1 April), perhaps headed back towards the average close to 60 seen in the final quarter of 2024. Since Airbus stated an expectation of 820 deliveries this year only a few weeks ago, it seems likely that this slow progress was already expected and at present there is no reason to doubt that number.

Over at Boeing, Cirium estimates 41 deliveries in March including 33 737 Max, four 787s and four 777-200LRFs, taking the Q1 total to 130. The US OEM has historically delivered 24.5% of annual deliveries in the first quarter and hence there is an indication of 530 total, again relatively short of our 610 expectation for the year. However, we know that Boeing is working through a ramp-up on the 737 line and first flight data indicates 27 aircraft built in March, up from an average of 23 in the first two months of the year and as few as 10 in November 2024. Expectations of achieving the FAA-imposed cap of 38 per month by mid-year seem reasonable.

Boeing’s deliveries are also being augmented by inventory aircraft. In 2025 to date almost 25% of 737 Max deliveries have been aircraft that flew more than 90 days prior to delivery. Although the pace of delivery of such aircraft seems to have slowed in March, with only four amongst the 33 total, there are still some 34 737-8s in inventory which seem likely to be delivered this year. If 737-7 deliveries could begin in 2025 (post-certification) then there are a further 28 potential deliveries there. The upside opportunity is completed with the 787 programme, where Cirium data indicates 25 aircraft flown prior to 2025 yet to be delivered (including 13 specifically for Lufthansa which are delayed by seat supply issues).

In summary, provisional first quarter delivery data indicates that both Airbus and Boeing face significant challenges if they are to achieve 2025’s delivery targets. However, there are clear data arguments to suggest that we should see volumes increase in the coming months. Therefore, it seems premature to be revising those targets downwards yet.

As a postscript, what about Comac? Following 13 C919 deliveries in 2024, we have seen suggestions of around 30 in 2025. We have also very recently seen reports of the three major Chinese airlines – China Eastern, Air China and China Southern – expecting 10, 12 and 10 C919 deliveries respectively this year. Yet in the first quarter Cirium’s data records only a single unit delivered to Comac Express. I bear this slow progress in mind each time I hear comments about Comac’s potential to break the duopoly. The challenge in Shanghai is clearly at least as great as those faced by Airbus and Boeing.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Yiru Zhang, Senior Valuation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

Persistent Challenges in the PW1100G Fleet

As the aviation industry continues to navigate supply chain disruptions and reliability concerns, the challenges surrounding new-generation engines remain a critical focal point. As of March 10, 2025more than 600 PW1100G-powered A320 family aircraft remain parked, accounting for 35% of the global fleet. While some suggest the worst may be over, caution is warranted. In contrast, the parked LEAP engine fleet is small and continues to decline in line with seasonal trend, signaling a more stable trajectory for its operational fleet.

RTX reported $1.1 billion in GTF engine compensation payments in 2024, with further projected payouts between $1.1 and $1.3 billion in 2025, underscoring the financial burden caused by ongoing groundings. These payments are issued as aircraft-on-ground (AOG) incidents occur, reflecting the sustained impact on airline operations.

Source: Cirium Core, 10 March 2025 (aircraft classified as parked following 7 continuous days of inactivity and therefore subject to restatement in near-term)

Engine Production and Delivery Constraints

RTX, the parent company of Pratt & Whitney, has signalled a 14% increase in large commercial engine production in 2025, with a slight increase in installations relative to additions to the spares pool. Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s analysis-driven 2025 delivery projections appear to show downside risk when compared to statements made by RTX as well as its competitor, in terms of supporting airframers to achieve their delivery targets for 2025.

While the powder metallurgy issue is expected to be largely resolved within the next 18–24 months, other technical and supply chain challenges persist. The uncertainty surrounding next-generation engine technologies through 2030 is prompting airlines to retain CFM56 and IAE-powered aircraft longer than initially planned. This trend suggests sustained demand for older-generation engines well into the 2030s, albeit at lower price points than currently.

Market Value Trends in Single-Aisle Aircraft

The following analysis of fleet-weighted market values for key single-aisle aircraft, indexed to December 2019 levels, highlights some notable trends:

Source: Cirium Core Current Market Values indexed to December 2019, on a fleet-weighted and constant-age basis

The A320ceo and 737-800 have shown the most significant value appreciation. Mid-life 737NG values saw an uptick in Q1 2025. The A320ceo family is currently under review, but both A320 and A321 are expected to show a stable trend alongside other mid-life narrowbody aircraft.

Older-generation aircraft values remain robust, supported by strong engine demand. Data indicates that lease extension levels are higher through 2023 and 2024 than in the latter years of the prior cycle. While demand for CFM56 and IAE engines remains solid over the next three years, supply constraints could ease once new production ramps up and more aircraft undergo part-out. A potential weakening in macroeconomic conditions and passenger demand could accelerate this timeline, but for now, the market remains resilient.

Despite production increases, PW1100G-related disruptions will likely persist for the rest of the decade, reinforcing the need for strategic fleet planning among airlines and lessors.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Toshimitsu Sogabe, Aviation Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance (ACMI) leasing has become an increasingly essential strategy for airlines to address operational challenges. Factors such as delayed new aircraft deliveries, supply chain constraints leading to parts shortages, prolonged maintenance turnaround times, and overall operational limitations continue to drive demand for ACMI solutions. Under such circumstances, we have assessed which airlines have been heavily utilizing the fleet from specialist ACMI providers.

Below are the top ten airlines with the largest passenger fleet sourced from ACMI providers in July 2024 (Northern Hemisphere Summer). Note this does not include “traditional” airlines categorized as non-ACMI providers under Cirium Fleets Analyzer (e.g. Finnair wet-leasing their A330s to Qantas, or AirBaltic wet-leasing their A220s to Lufthansa Group).

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

The above list reflects a diverse mix of airlines, including full-service carriers, low-cost carriers (LCCs), regional airlines and freighter operators.

In contrast, when examining the top ten airlines in January 2025 (Northern Hemisphere Winter), we observe shifts in rankings, with some airlines increasing or decreasing their fleet from specialist ACMI providers, while others have been completely removed from the list.

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

It is notable that while flag carriers such as Lufthansa Group, THY (through it’s subsidiary Ajet), Air France-KLM Group and SAS sees some reductions but continue to utilize ACMI provider’s fleet in January 2025, leisure and tour operators have significantly scaled down or completely phased out these fleets. The most striking example is TUI, which returned most of its 22 aircraft that were in operation in July 2024 by January 2025 to ACMI providers. Similarly, Jet2 and SunExpress, both of which had incorporated ACMI provider’s fleet in July 2024 (with eight and seven aircraft respectively), fully discontinued their ACMI provider’s fleet utilization by January 2025. This is understandable given the larger fluctuation in peak and off-peak demand for leisure and tour operators. In contrast, Indigo has maintained (or in fact slightly increased) their fleet from ACMI providers, primarily to compensate for ongoing groundings of its owned and leased aircraft due to Pratt and Whitney’s GTF engine issues.

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

The above chart highlights that Europe remains the largest market for ACMI provider’s fleet utilization. It is interesting to see Africa ranks as the second-largest market, despite its relatively smaller aviation sector compared to other continents. A significant portion of ACMI demand in the Asia Pacific and Latin American markets is driven by Indigo and VivaAerobus; excluding the two airlines would result in a substantial reduction in ACMI provider’s fleet usage in these regions (Turkey is categorized as part of “Europe” under Cirium Fleets Analyzer). Furthermore, European airlines have significantly reduced their ACMI provider’s fleet utilization in January 2025, whereas other regions have shown an overall increase, with the exception of Africa, which experienced a slight reduction. This may be attributed to a combination of factors, including seasonal fluctuations in air traffic (including countries in the Southern Hemisphere), and non-seasonal challenges that necessitate ACMI use, as observed in IndiGo’s case).

As mentioned above it is important to note that this assessment does not completely capture the impact of the full wet-lease demand in the market as we have not assessed wet-lease provided by “traditional” airlines. However even within this scope, we can observe the distinct variations in airline requirements and/or operational strategies regarding ACMI utilization.