In 2028, the Olympic Games will be held in Los Angeles. The LA28 committee is inviting the world to ‘Follow the sun on journey of sport and innovation.’

The 2024 Paris Olympics had a slogan of ‘Games Wide Open’ which included a vision to halve the carbon footprint compared to previous games. As part of the initiative, it was announced that electrical Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft would be used to provide air taxi services across the city. The chosen design was Volocopter’s Volocity eVTOL. If successful, it would have been the first time such a vehicle had been used in full-scale commercial operations.

However, obtaining certification proved a hurdle too great, leading only to demonstration flights being achieved at the event. Ultimately, it was “Game Closed” for Volocopter’s as they filed for insolvency proceedings in Germany on December 26, 2024.

In an announcement reminiscent to the one ahead of Paris 2024, the LA28 committee have revealed a partnership with Archer Aviation to offer a taxi service during the 2028 event.

Archer Aviation offers its Midnight eVTOL which is a four-passenger, piloted eVTOL with 12 propellers: six tilt props in the front of the wing for forward and VTOL flight and six aft propellers that are stationary for VTOL flight only. In a statement to the BBC, Archer’s CEO and Founder Adam Goldstein expressed a vision for Los Angeles:

“We want to transform the way people get around Los Angeles and leave a legacy that shapes the future of transportation in America. There’s no better time to do that than during the LA28 Games.“

The aviation industry has always been committed to engineering and solutions many once thought was not possible. Ongoing research and development efforts by aerospace companies, startups, finance community and government agencies are all aiming to address them.

Nevertheless, there are still substantial hurdles to overcome, and three years remain a tight deadline. Some of the key challenges include –

Infrastructure Development: Establishing adequate infrastructure such as vertiports for takeoff and landing, charging stations for electric aircraft, and integration with existing transportation systems is essential but complex.

Technological Advancements: Continued research and development are needed to enhance battery efficiency, flight range, and overall performance of eVTOL vehicles to meet commercial demands.

Regulations: Securing necessary certifications and approvals from aviation authorities can be a lengthy process that involves rigorous testing and compliance with safety standards.

Additional considerations include pilot licensing, air traffic control and management, airspace integration and emergency procedures.

Financial Viability: Ensuring that the air taxi service is economically sustainable requires significant investment in technology development while also creating a viable business model that attracts customers and compete with current technology. Part of that is achieving cost reductions through economies of scale in production. 

Looking to the helicopter sector the average growth in the sectors targeted by eVTOLs – Business/VIP, Private and Air Taxi sectors – have seen an average growth of around 300 helicopters year-on-year for the past 20 years. This is slowing to around 100, in the past decade.

Is such market sufficient to achieve economies of scale for the eVTOL OEMs?

Chart 1: Single engine piston and turbine helicopter fleet development – 20 years

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer
*All in service/storage western built civil single piston and turbine helicopters operating in Business/Sightseeing/VIP capacity

Public Acceptance – this is a crucial element that can significantly impact the success and widespread adoption of this innovative mode of transportation.

The chosen launch platform for the Archer eVTOL is one of the biggest sporting events in the calendar with a global reach of over 3 billion. A successful commercial introduction at the 2028 Olympics would indeed be a notable milestone in this ongoing marathon and go some way to win the approval of the public. A non-successful introduction would likely do much the opposite.

Will three years be enough to complete the development of an ecosystem able to support a viable financial proposition for the use of this new technology?

At the time of the announcement re Volocopter’s involvement in Paris 2024, Rob Morris, Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy remarked: “I suppose we don’t need to advance opinions about whether this will happen or not, because we will know soon enough if it’s realistic or idealistic.”

That remark still stands.

Until then and in the spirit of LA28 – “Follow the sun – don’t let those who doubt dull your shine”.

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