By Sara Dhariwal, Valuations Manager at Ascend by Cirium
At the end of April 2022, Cirium revealed its new Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector dataset in the Fleets Analyzer platform. The initial launch includes known commitments for manned eVTOLs and electric/hybrid business and regional aircraft.
|Business Electric – Multi Engine||Alice|
|Business Electric – Multi Engine||eFlyer 800|
|Business Electric – Multi Engine||Electra eSTOL|
|Business Electric – Multi Engine||M200|
|eVTOL – UAV/UAS||ALIA-250C|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||Aero3|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||ALIA-250|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||Archer eVTOL|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||Butterfly|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||Cora|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||EH216|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||Eve|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||Lilium Jet|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||S4|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||VoloCity|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||VT-30|
|eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)||VX4|
|Regional Electric – Small||ERA|
|Regional Electric – Small||ES-19|
As the market develops, there will no doubt be further market groupings and types included.
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)
The eVTOL – UAM sector has generated the most activity in the market both in terms of number of aircraft in development, and commitments received to date. The space now has a total of just under 4,500 orders – likely a slightly outdated figure by the time this is published! The orders by type can be seen in the table below.
There are two clear top contenders in the sector so far – Embraer’s Eve Air Mobility’s “Eve” with 15 customers and 40% of the total commitments, and Vertical Aerospace’s “VX4” with six customers and a 30% share of the total commitments.
Range and payload seem to vary somewhat between the types, as does the number of motors which ranges from 6 to a whopping 36.
There have been commitments announced for eVTOLs from a total of 38 companies.
Avolon currently have a majority share at 11% of total commitments with the VX4, followed by American Airlines at 8% share also for the VX4 type. Azul is one out of two investors in the Lilium Jet and takes a 5% share of the total commitments. Bristow is the only customer that has commitments for multiple types, including the Butterfly, Eve, VX4 and the Electra eSTOL.
The types with the most commitments so far – Eve, Lilium Jet and VX4 – are all configured for 4+1 seat capacity.
Looking at the helicopter sector, Robinson’s R44 is by far the most popular type with a share of almost 50% of the total current fleet in the four seats and under category. The vast majority is in private or corporate use but they are also used for missions such as pilot training and utility. The type has a useful payload of approx. 820 lbs, a maximum range around 300nm and a price tag around the US$500,000 mark.
If the eVTOLs are intending on competing with existing technology, the comparison with the R44 brings some colour on the range and payload combination required, as well as the competitive price tag to aim for. We are yet to get an indication of the unit cost of any of the new concepts and so is a space to watch.
The Ascend by Cirum AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market.
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