Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, has announced a new partnership with Aerlytix. The collaboration will enhance the data analytics capabilities for financial service providers and lessors, powering broader insights and more readily accessible and faster asset and risk management scenario views and reporting.
With pressure mounting on the aviation industry to provide more frequent reports and make metrics more available for advantageous market solutions, this partnership, along with Cirium’s investments in analytics, is positioned to support these challenges through innovative and transparent data solutions. Cirium predicts that 2025 will be a pivotal year for transformative data analytics in aviation finance and digital platforms to assist in investment strategies and asset management.
Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO said: “Our Partnership with Aerlytix, combined with Cirium’s continued investment in data and analytics innovation, underscores our commitment to driving transformative advancements in aviation finance. The industry faces mounting pressures for more rigorous financial reporting, enhanced oversight and improved access to financing—key to modernising fleets and facilitating aircraft trading. Addressing these challenges requires greater efficiencies, transparency and data security. Cirium’s unique expertise in aviation data analytics empowers financial institutions to meet these demands and create smarter financial strategies.”
Cirium’s exclusive relationship with Dublin-based aviation technology company Aerlytix, provides aviation financiers with access to maintenance-adjusted valuations, scenario-based fly-forwards on a single aircraft as well as portfolio valuation reporting through Aerlytix’s advanced digital platform.
The new integrated service leverages the combined strengths of Cirium and Aerlytix by incorporating Cirium Ascend’s comprehensive data – covering fleets, values, maintenance costs, reserves and intervals- alongside Ascend Consultancy’s accredited aircraft valuations expertise, which will be integrated into the Aerlytix proprietary SaaS platform.
Alan Doyle, Aerlytix CEO said: “This integrated service empowers the aviation financial services market to digitize decision-making around asset portfolios, seamlessly embedding analytics into finance and technical workflows. We are delighted to partner with Cirium to drive innovation and set a new standard in portfolio valuations.”
Cirium’s dedication to helping drive the evolution in data analytics within the aviation finance market extends to its recent investments in innovative tools that enable tracking flight and ground activity of aircraft portfolios, monitoring and benchmarking key value and liquidity metrics by aircraft asset class and analyzing aircraft CO2 emissions. Additionally, Cirium is onboarding new technologies to provide businesses with seamless and innovative access to its comprehensive data, including a data warehouse available through platforms such as Snowflake Software.
About Aerlytix Aerlytix is transforming the aviation finance industry across the globe with its cutting-edge SaaS products. By harnessing the power of technology, data and advanced modelling, Aerlytix delivers major productivity wins and brings accuracy and clarity to aviation investment decision-making. Driven and continuously enhanced by its active userbase it is fast becoming the technology solution of choice for industry leading Lessors, Aviation Banks and Aircraft Investors worldwide.
For further information please follow Aerlytix on LinkedIn or visit aerlytix.com.
About Cirium Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth.
Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
In the first part of this Cirium Ascend Consultancy Team Perspective, we looked at the airlines with the largest order backlogs. The example of Emirates (and Norwegian) gave some indications as to how airlines sometimes misread the longer-term market, leading to a degree of double-counting of order backlog. Now we look at another market, this time primarily a point-to-point short-haul example, and then discuss some of the metrics and factors that can help understand the risk that may be present in any long-term future delivery stream. Again, all fleet figures refer to single-aisle and twin-aisle passenger aircraft, both in service and stored, operated by airlines.
Case Study – Southeast Asia
In 2014 the two largest order backlogs were held by the Lion Air and AirAsia groups. They still rank at 5th and 6th biggest today. Indeed, many of the aircraft that were ordered before 2014 remain on order today, having been deferred. Both groups planned to take advantage of ‘open skies’ liberalisation across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, which promised to spur rapid growth on international markets from 2015 onwards. Each has set up operations in multiple countries, although ownership rules have prevented a wholly-owned approach. Establishing cross-border brands not tied to a specific country aimed to follow the success of Easyjet and Ryanair in Europe.
This strategy appeared to be successful for a while, as Lion Air expanded into Malaysia and Thailand, establishing both low-cost and full-service airlines, and AirAsia launched in Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia.
AirAsia went further than Lion Air, in setting up airlines outside Southeast Asia, in Japan and India. AirAsia has also established a much larger medium/long-haul operation than Lion Air, with the AirAsia X brand, although both fly twin-aisle aircraft.
The chart below shows capacity (available seat kilometres, ASKs) flown within Southeast Asia, plus the combined market share for the two airline groups.
It can be seen there was remarkable growth in capacity between 2004-2014, with the overall Intra-Southeast Asia market expanding at 11.7% per annum. Notably, domestic markets had fed most of this growth, expanding by 13.5% per annum. However, international deregulation awaited.
This period coincided with AirAsia and Lion Air increasing market share from 10% to 40%, hence they saw growth of 25% and 32% per annum respectively. The huge orders placed likely assumed this would continue, as well as expanding the brands outside this market. However, a period of consolidation occurred from 2014-2019, primarily due to lack of profitability resulting from intense competition. The two carriers did not increase share further, so were reliant on natural growth in the region, which amounted to just 5.4% per annum. Then Covid hit, and the market was still well below 2019 levels in 2024.
So, what can the examples of Emirates and Air Asia/Lion Air tell us about the current order backlog? Firstly, markets don’t experience tremendous growth indefinitely. Secondly, market share, even for the best-run or lowest cost carrier, tends to plateau eventually. This is usually due to competition – either incumbent airlines learn how to compete better, or new competitors emerge to take advantage of market opportunities.
Looking at the airlines with the largest backlogs today, and those that have the highest backlog-to-fleet ratio, several stand out. The three Indian carriers (IndiGo, Air India and Akasa Air) obviously anticipate huge market growth over the next decade, and this cannot be ruled out, provided infrastructure, trained personnel, and maintenance services can be put in place quickly enough to support the growth.
VietJet Air has 270 aircraft on order, plus another 50 for its Thai offshoot. This places it in a similar position to AirAsia and Lion Air 10 years ago. It needs huge growth to continue, or it needs to gain market share, or both. Lion Air and AirAsia themselves still have over 800 orders in place, sufficient to replace all the current fleet, and grow another 40%. However, as each year goes past, the ratio will decline. They remain the largest airlines in a region with nearly 700 million people, and a very young demographic. The jury remains out on whether these airlines can absorb all these aircraft.
This brings us back to the Middle East, the location of several airlines with massive ambitions for growth.
This brings us back to the Middle East, the location of several airlines with massive ambitions for growth, and the backing of extremely wealthy governments. The region has seen rapid population growth, but much of this is outside the rich oil-producing states. Hence the past reliance on transfer traffic and future plans to develop inbound tourism.
Chart 2 shows the current fleets and firm backlog for key countries in the Middle East, and includes some others for reference, in particular the homes of the other airlines with large orderbooks.
Chart 2: 2024 Fleet & Backlog by Country
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, UN Population Estimates, Cirium Ascend Consultancy analysis
Here, we use the metric of number of aircraft per million head of population as a basis for comparison, and also as a proxy for the propensity to travel by air. If we look at the developed markets of the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany, the number of aircraft (current airline fleet) per million people is 15, 11 and six respectively.
Malaysia sticks out as a higher figure, particularly for the backlog, due to including all AirAsia Groups backlog here. However, even on this basis, the backlog per million people is only 12. For Indonesia, the figure is less than two aircraft per million people. This highlights the potential for growth in the country, which has nearly 300 million people today. Perhaps for countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, the backlog is justifiable, but maybe not in the timeframe currently scheduled for delivery?
India has a current fleet of around 775 aircraft, which is only just higher than the UK.
India has a current fleet of around 775 aircraft, which is only just higher than the UK, despite having 20 times the population. On this basis, the backlog of 2,000 aircraft could easily be absorbed into the market, and would still be only around 60% of the size of the Chinese fleet.
In terms of current fleet per head of population, unsurprisingly the UAE and Qatar are outliers. Their reliance on transfer traffic has allowed this. Some of their order backlog is for replacement. However, the prospect of more direct service by Indian carriers to Europe and North America, continued strong competition from Turkey and others, plus more capacity going into Saudi Arabia likely caps their growth to some extent.
Lastly, Saudi Arabia, with 34 million people, only has seven aircraft per million today. The current backlog implies an increase to around 12-15 per million. This is perhaps realistic for a wealthy advanced nation, but may require some market share capture from today’s incumbent transfer airlines.
Does every airline dream come true? Some already have, but the rate of expansion does not usually continue in a straight line forever. Some have turned to nightmares, often as a result of trying to change the business model from what made it successful. Think Norwegian or AirAsia. Some remain dreams which may still come true, but perhaps after a longer wait than anticipated.
The complimentary OTPAwardsAIhelps in the analysis of the Cirium 2024 On- Time Performance results
Users can analyse and review on-time performance scores, flights, completion factors, and uncover performance trends with ease
This is the first of several GenAI assistants that Cirium will be launching this year, with a OTP Improvement AI coming soon
Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, has unveiled the industry’s first generative AI assistant designed specifically for airline and airport on-time performance (OTP). OTP Awards AI is the first of Cirium’s generative AI assistants designed to supplement the analysis of Cirium’s 2024 On-Time Performance Review.
The AI assistant empowers anyone connected to aviation to dig deeper into the top performer results, review the on-time performance scores, tracked flights and completion factor insights, and uncover performance trends with ease. With this tool, users can query and compare their metrics with industry leaders to identify performance gaps.
“2025 will be a pivotal year for aviation as it seeks to enhance the use of analytics and automate workflows,” said Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO. “Cirium’s new AI assistants supports the growing need for data availability, which is essential for advanced, data- driven decision-making. The first of our assistants is designed to augment the analysis of the 2024 Cirium On-Time Performance Review and is the first of its kind in the market. This is only the beginning.”
Using the assistant, the user can uncover insights and identify airline and airport performance trends. The tool can show a carrier’s ability to recover from disruption and maintain a high level of on-time performance. One of the key features of the OTP Awards AI is its ability for airlines and airports to compare their performance with that of their peers. The OTP Awards AI is the first of several assistants that Cirium will be releasing to the market this year.
Cirium’s AI assistants are being created with a focus on accuracy and precision by connecting directly to Cirium’s industry leading data platform, which is considered to be the most comprehensive in the industry. Up next is the OTP Improvement AI, which is designed to take OTP analysis even further and pinpoint opportunities for operational efficiency, enhancing situational awareness and conducting deep disruption analysis.
Learn more about Cirium’s OTP Awards AI and to sign up to the OTP Improvement AI waitlist.
About Cirium Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth.
Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
As we commence 2025, the story is that every airline is desperate for new aircraft to meet growth or to replace older aircraft, or both. Many have very ambitious expansion plans. It seems an opportune moment, then, to consider how often airlines achieve goals for rapid expansion, and the factors that might help realise their dreams.
For this analysis, the fleet and backlog data includes passenger single-aisles and twin-aisles, from all manufacturers.
The airlines with the largest backlogs today are shown below, and then contrasted with the position a decade ago.
They are a mixture of the largest carriers, with a higher share of replacement demand, and airlines in fast-growing developing countries.
As at the end of 2024, there were 13,800 aircraft on order for airlines, compared to a total fleet of 23,600 passenger aircraft. Therefore the backlog-to-fleet ratio is around 0.58:1. Note that the order total includes just over 1,000 aircraft that are for unannounced airline customers, many of which are likely destined for Chinese carriers and lessors. Ten years ago, the fleet stood at 17,300, with a firm backlog of 10,300 aircraft. The ratio was therefore almost identical to today, at 0.59:1.
It is obvious that most of these airlines have backlog-to-fleet ratios well above the industry average, with several well above one. Thus, they have sufficient aircraft on order to replace the entire fleet in service today, or to support huge growth. Three of the listed carriers are based in India, which Cirium Ascend Consultancy expects to be the fastest growing market over the next 10-20 years, as discussed in previous thought leadership. Three are the major Chinese carriers, who have relatively small announced backlogs. The four largest US airlines are present, with quite modest backlog-to-fleet ratios between 0.28 and 0.69, plus low-cost carrier (LCC) Frontier Airlines, with a ratio of 1.19.
Wizz Air Group has the most ambitious plans, with a backlog-to-fleet ratio of 1.34.
Europe is represented by the three major LCCs, plus the Lufthansa Group. Within these, Wizz Air Group has the most ambitious plans, with a backlog-to-fleet ratio of 1.34. In contrast, Ryanair has a relatively small backlog, and is planning on slower growth over the next few years. Turkish Airlines, including its subsidiary Ajet, has the seventh largest backlog.
There are two Middle East carriers in the ranking. These are Emirates, and Saudia Group (including its LCC subsidiary Flyadeal). Although outside the top 20, the combined order backlogs for Qatar Airways, Riyadh Air, Flydubai, Air Arabia, Etihad and Flynas now amount to nearly 700 aircraft, leading to concerns about future overcapacity in the region.
The remaining three carriers are in Southeast Asia, and are primarily seen as LCCs. Their order backlogs have largely been in place since before Covid, and have seen several deferrals and order restructurings.
A review of these airlines and the history of the Gulf connector airlines may be useful to understand the context of airline ‘mega-orders’ and the nature of rapidly-growing markets.
The situation a decade ago was not altogether different to today. IndiGo is there, and has seen its fleet more than quadruple since 2014, from 88 to 382 aircraft. The four US Majors were listed, as were two of the Chinese ‘Big 3’, the Lufthansa Group, and Turkish Airlines. There were two airlines in Latin America, not represented today. This market has seen considerable upheaval and airline bankruptcies during Covid.
What stands out is Lion Air and AirAsia Groups had the largest backlog in 2014, in terms of aircraft units. They had backlog-to-fleet ratios of 3.54 and 2.03 respectively, in anticipation of huge market growth. Both companies, but especially AirAsia had plans to grow their brands across the region, using JVs or minority stakes in multiple countries.
The second highest ratio was Norwegian, which had similar ambition to break out of Norway to expand across Europe, and to launch long-haul services.
It is well-documented how the latter plan brought the airline down, but it also struggled to compete with the bigger players.
The three Gulf carriers were all present in the table in 2014. At the time, Emirates, Qatar and Etihad had a combined fleet of 450 aircraft, with 685 on backlog. Flydubai, since merged into the Emirates Group added a fleet of 88, with 127 on order. Thus, the combined backlog-to-fleet ratio was around 1.5, signifying how each carrier aimed to continue growing rapidly.
Case Study – Emirates
Emirates had a fleet of 219 passenger aircraft in 2014, being easily the largest of the Middle East airlines. It had grown rapidly, and its hub at Dubai International Airport (DXB) was seen as becoming full around 2015-2020. Dubai had announced plans for a massive new airport, now known as Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International (DWC) in 2005. Construction started in 2007, with the first freight service landing in 2010, and the passenger terminal in 2013.
The original DWC plan envisaged it becoming the hub for Emirates by 2018, with an eventual capacity of 150 million passengers and six runways.
This was to support plans to grow the airline to a fleet of 500-600 aircraft.
Things changed in 2011, however. It was decided to expand DXB to handle 90 million passengers. DWC growth was slowed, with it set to support Emirates switching its hub around 2025 instead. DXB handled 87 million passengers in 2023, and will exceed 100 million in 2025. However, DWC expansion is back on the rails, with the June 2024 announcement that it will replace the city’s existing gateway by 2034. All operations will move to the new airport, with plans for passenger facilities capable of handling 260 million passengers a year.
So, what has all this meant for Emirates and its competitors? The airline’s fleet has hardly grown since 2015, after having trebled in the preceding 10 years. Covid-19 had a major impact, with Emirates relying on long-haul international traffic. Airframer issues have impacted its plans too, with Airbus unwilling to further develop the A380, and Boeing suffering interminable delays on the 777X. It has been able to expand capacity somewhat, by use of larger aircraft.
Airlines often plan on the basis of growing faster than the market average. Airline A may plan on gaining market share, or capturing more transfer traffic. However, so might Airline B and Airline C. The Middle East has not seen rapid GDP growth over the past decade, and remains geo-politically unstable. However, collectively, airlines were successful in building transfer hubs and also stimulating some local traffic and inbound tourist visitors. The success of Dubai led to Qatar and Abu Dhabi aiming to replicate this, with Bahrain and Oman looking to expand too. Today, Saudi Arabia is investing heavily in promoting itself and its airlines seek to expand rapidly.
Back in 2013, as well as Emirates’ plan to double its fleet, Etihad wanted to triple its fleet by 2026, and Qatar was looking ahead to the 2022 World Cup. LCC competition was expanding from Air Arabia, and locally Flydubai was independent of Emirates.
Chart 4: Middle East Airline Fleet Expansion 2014-2024
Perhaps the biggest threat was to come from Turkish Airlines. It has a huge home market, offers shorter elapsed times from Europe to much of Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and was building airport capacity. Turkish Airlines had a fleet of 231 aircraft in 2013, and had just placed orders for 212 new aircraft. Its long-term plan was a fleet of 421 aircraft in 2021. It has largely achieved this. Despite some setbacks, it had a fleet of 440 by January 2024, when it outlined a Group plan to reach 950 aircraft by 2033.
Emirates has also seen growing competition from Indian and Chinese carriers on the Europe-Asia market, but has perhaps benefitted from capacity reductions from other Asian airlines, such as Thai, Malaysian, and Garuda.
This example shows how much can change in 10 years. External shocks and local economic upsets have played a part, but competition with other hubs, with other existing airlines, and the entry of new LCCs have all affected growth plans, with the result that many aircraft on order in 2013-14 have never been delivered. Plans must adapt, and Emirates has certainly been successful in doing this, including co-ordinating better with Flydubai. The Emirates Group delivered a solid profit in 2024, in contrast to many Middle East airlines, showing that rapid growth and shiny new planes do not necessarily go hand-in-hand with market success.
In the second part of this Team Perspective, we will discuss Southeast Asia, and consider what other factors influence order backlog developments.
Mexico’s flag carrier topped the global category, followed by Saudia, and Delta Air Lines
Regional Winners Include: Copa Airlines (Latin America), Delta Air Lines (North America), Iberia Express (Europe, and Low-Cost Airline), Japan Airlines (Asia-Pacific), and FlySafair (Middle East and Africa)
Riyadh King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, today announced the winners of its 2024 On-Time Performance Review, celebrating airlines and airports that excelled in on-time and operational performance.
Cirium’s Annual report is the gold standard for global airline and airport performance analytics. An on-time flight is defined as a flight that arrives within 14:59 minutes of the scheduled gate arrival time. Airports measure punctuality as departing flights within 14:59 minutes of their scheduled departure time.
Mexico’s Flag Carrier Tops Global Rankings
Aeromexico claimed the prestigious title of the most On-Time “Global Airline” in 2024, achieving an impressive On-Time performance rate of 86.70%. Saudia followed closely as the runner-up with 86.35%, while Delta Air Lines secured third place with 83.46%, continuing to showcase its operational reliability on the world stage.
Cirium’s Annual Review also acknowledges the operational excellence of airlines across the world, with five regional awards. Iberia Express, member of the International Airlines Group, had success as both the most On-Time airline in Europe, and the most On-Time Low-Cost airline globally. Japan Airlines ranked first within Asia-Pacific, just slightly ahead of All Nippon Airways.
Delta Air Lines continued its dominance in North America, while Copa Airlines achieved a landmark 10th win in Latin America. FlySafair also won most On-Time airline in the Middle East and Africa. The full tables of results by region and category are presented below.
Riyadh’s King Khalid Airport Takes Top Honors in the Global Airport Category
In the Airport categories, Riyadh King Khalid International Airport, the gateway to Saudi Arabia’s capital, claimed this year’s prestigious title of the most On-Time “Global Airport” with an impressive 86.65% of flights departing on time. The Middle Eastern hub further distinguished itself by securing victory in the ‘Large Airport’ category, outperforming top contenders from around the world.
Special Recognition of Operational Excellence: The Cirium Platinum Awards
Delta Air Lines topped the table for a fourth consecutive year, landing Cirium’s Platinum Award for global operational excellence. This prestigious accolade comes as the Atlanta-based airline continues to be praised for its unwavering commitment to operational performance.
The Platinum award considers the complexity of the carrier’s network, volume of flights, and the ability to limit the impact of flight disruptions on passengers over the entire year.
The airline was recognized for its on-time performance over the course of 2024 at 83.46%, on more than 1,712,529 total flights in 2024.
This year, Cirium also presented its first annual Platinum Award to a global airport, with El Dorado International Airport in Bogotá, Colombia receiving this prestigious award. The Airport Platinum Award considers a broader range of factors including the impact of delays on passengers, the duration of disruptions, operational complexity, and the airport’s appeal, with a particular focus on growth. This holistic approach highlights excellence across multiple dimensions, setting a new benchmark in airport performance evaluation.
Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO, said: “In an industry defined by operational complexity, we are extremely proud to be celebrating the airlines and airports who have provided customers the most on-time flights and best performance in 2024, acknowledging their operational excellence.”
“2024 was a difficult year for airlines, facing a large-scale IT outage, and unseasonable and severe weather patterns. Despite these challenges, these airlines and airports have worked tirelessly to ensure their customers have a smooth journey and reach their destination on-time.”
“We extend our congratulations to all the winners of this year’s On-Time Performance Review, each of whom has set new standards in operational excellence. A special recognition goes to Delta Air Lines for continuing their outstanding winning streak with Cirium’s Platinum Award for airlines, Copa Airlines for achieving its 10th title as Latin America’s most On-Time airline, Iberia Express for its consistent performance as Europe’s most On-Time airline, and Bogotá El Dorado Airport for securing Cirium’s first-ever Platinum Award for an airport.”
Now in its 16th year, the Cirium On-Time Performance Review remains the definitive benchmark for monitoring global airline operational performance. Powered by Cirium’s vast and impartial data—sourced from over 600 real-time feeds, including airlines, airports, global distribution systems, and civil aviation authorities—it offers a thorough and objective view of the industry. The program is further strengthened by the guidance of an independent advisory board composed of seasoned industry experts with decades of experience.
Notes to editors *An on-time flight is defined as a flight that arrives within 15 minutes of the scheduled gate arrival. For an airport, it is defined as departing within 15 minutes of its scheduled departure.
About Cirium Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth.
Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
According to Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, Santa Claus has again set the ultimate benchmark for operational excellence in aviation by orchestrating an unparalleled global itinerary this Christmas Eve. Covering approximately 1.6 billion homes in just 24 hours, he navigates a meticulously planned route, balancing speed, accuracy, and seasonal cheer. With an estimated cruising velocity of 2,900 kilometers per second—a pace far exceeding conventional aircraft—Santa’s sleigh transforms into a marvel of Christmas engineering. His system is further optimized by the 24-hour rotation of Earth, strategically leveraging 39 distinct time zones to tactically extend his delivery window for maximum efficiency. This precise synchronization ensures phenomenal on-time performance and operational excellence.
What powers this remarkable operation goes beyond mere speed; Santa’s sleigh is equipped with cutting-edge magical enhancements. Incorporating stardust propulsion and quantum temporal manipulation, his sleigh defies the barriers of time and physics. Meanwhile, his team of highly trained reindeer, led by the luminous Rudolph, ensures flawless navigation through unpredictable weather conditions. Cirium EmeraldSky’s calculations reveal that Santa’s sleigh operates with zero CO2 emissions. Through the seamless integration of age-old magic and visionary innovation, Santa maintains his legendary on-time performance, securing his title as the unrivaled titan of holiday aviation.
With that, we are excited to announce that for over 1,700 years running, Santa and his crew have once again achieved 100% On-Time Performance! Congratulations to the entire North Pole crew for everything you do to contribute to this remarkable achievement!
Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
The Virgin Australia Regional Airlines (VARA) order for eight Embraer E190-E2s in August represents a new turn in the Australian mining Fly-In Fly-Out (FIFO) market. For decades this market has relied on the use of older, used aircraft for low utilisation operations. These new aircraft will be used to replace its remaining Fokker 100s.
Western Australia is a key region for mineral extraction (including iron ore, nickel-copper and gold) and there are numerous mining sites in the outback, which rely on air connections to fly workers in and out, usually to Perth. An example is Christmas Creek Mine, which operates a Fokker 100 daily on a 1 hour 40min flight from and to Perth. Airstrips can have paved or unpaved runways with usually just an apron and minimal facilities.
These FIFO flights mainly use regional jets, with some Airbus A319/A320 and De Havilland Canada Dash 8 operations as well.
Large Passenger Regional Jet Fleet in Australia
Source: Cirium Core
The large-sized regional jet fleet in Australia has grown from around 80 a decade ago to over 100 today. They are used on a mix of scheduled services and regular FIFO charter contracts. The Fokker 100 has been the core of this fleet, operated by Alliance Airlines, Network Aviation as well as VARA. The fleet peaked at 56 during 2018 but is down to 43 now., mainly as VARA has reduced its fleet from 21 aircraft to seven. Network Aviation, owned by Qantas and operating as QantasLink on scheduled and charter routes, operates 14, alongside Airbuses and one E190.
Indeed, Australia has become an important market for used E190s.
Alliance, which uses 21 Fokker 100s and 10 Fokker 70s, has been active in building its E190 fleet, having acquired 67, first with ex American and Copa aircraft. It is in the process of taking 30 ex-JetBlue aircraft by mid-2026 from AerCap. Not all of these will enter service, as it has been selling some surplus airframes and engine cores, after harvesting for engines and spare parts. Alliance currently has 30 in service and operates both FIFO and for QantasLink, with Qantas having a part share in the carrier.
National Jet Express has also expanded its E190 fleet to seven, having replaced its BAe 146s.
The Australian market continues to provide opportunities for more E190s as Fokker 70/100 replacements, while the introduction of the E190-E2 may indicate a good long-term future for newer generation aircraft too.
The year 2024 has been noteworthy for air travel in the Asia-Pacific region, marked by significant developments in international routes. Which markets are emerging as top performers this year?
Source: Cirium FM Traffic, data filed Nov 4, 2024
In the first eight months of 2024, Japan remains one of the busiest destinations, with routes connecting to South Korea, China, and Taiwan ranking in the top three for passenger traffic. While passenger numbers on routes between Japan and South Korea, as well as Taiwan, have shown robust double-digit growth, traffic between China and Japan experienced a notable decline of 25%. This decrease is mirrored by a 21% reduction in seat capacity. Overall, China’s international seat capacity continues to lag behind pre-pandemic 2019 levels by 28%, posing ongoing challenges for passenger traffic, with reductions observed across all major routes connecting to China.
Japan remains one of the busiest destinations, while China’s international seat capacity continues to lag behind pre-pandemic 2019 levels by 28%.
Meanwhile, Vietnam-South Korea routes have demonstrated healthy growth, with passenger traffic increasing by 15%, supported by an 11% rise in seat capacity between January and August 2024, compared to 2019. This period saw the launch of five new routes, including Nha Trang–Cheongju, Da Lat–Busan, Phu Quoc Island–Cheongju, Phu Quoc Island–Busan, and Can Tho–Seoul. VietJet Air has emerged as the dominant player in this market, providing 1.1 million out of the 3.9 million total seats. Korean Air and Vietnam Airlines follow with 578,000 and 500,000 seats, respectively.
Another market that saw a similar growth phenomenon is India – United Arab Emirates, where traffic and capacity both grew by 15% between 2024 and 2019. This growth was powered by IndiGo’s (6E) and Air India Express’ (IX) capacity injection of +55% and 21% respectively, and the new entrance of Air Arabia Abu Dhabi (3L), which contributed another additional 407,000 seats from the UAE to India.
Source: Cirium SRS Analyser, data filed Nov 4, 2024
An analysis of the top 10 Asia-Pacific routes by scheduled seat capacity for the first quarter of 2025 reveals that most major markets have surpassed their pre-COVID levels and are now in a growth phase. Notably, routes such as South Korea–Vietnam and India–United Arab Emirates are maintaining strong upward momentum, with seat capacity increasing by 27% and 20%, respectively.
However, China stands as an exception to this trend. Major international routes to Thailand, South Korea, and Hong Kong remain significantly below 2019 levels, with traffic to Thailand still trailing by 22%. While recovery appears possible, it will be heavily influenced by a range of factors, from market demand and policy changes to broader economic conditions. Nevertheless, there is hope that with the right conditions, a gradual rebound could be on the horizon.
Major international routes from China remain significantly lower than 2019 levels, recovery is heavily dependent on the right conditions such as market demand, policy changes and broader economic conditions.
African aviation is experiencing remarkable growth, as detailed in Africa’s Skies in Focus, a new report released today by Cirium, the most trusted source of aviation analytics. Several factors have converged to fuel this rapid growth, including robust government support, increased investment, and a rising demand for air travel.
“African carriers and airports have among them global leaders, and that is not hyperbole. Look at the breadth and development of the Ethiopian Airlines network, or the operational excellence of Safair. That’s African aviation today, with more exciting developments on the way,” said Mike Malik, Chief Marketing Officer of Cirium.
Safair, the South African airline, excels at on-time performance, a key driver of customer satisfaction and a measure of overall operational performance. In 2024, the airline is the undisputed leader in the Middle East and Africa, and a strong performer among the global Low-Cost Carriers.
Passenger traffic in Africa surpassed pre-pandemic numbers in 2023 when total passenger traffic reached 161 million, compared to 144 million in 2019. The busiest airports on the continent are Cairo, Johannesburg, and Cape Town. African-flagged carriers maintain the lion’s share of capacity there, whose fleets are set to more than double by 2043, as detailed in the report.
About Cirium Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth.
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Richard Evans, Senior Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
Most of the largest airlines have reported their quarter three (Q3) results over the past few weeks. These numbers are, by definition, backward looking, but the commentary around the press releases is usually informative about the market environment in general, with some useful data on the near-term outlook.
A few words of explanation about the below chart. The airlines listed are the 10 largest in each region, by revenue, that issue quarterly or bi-annual results in a timely manner. The figures are operating margin (EBIT), with the colours showing the change in relation to the same period in 2023. At the bottom, there is a simple arithmetic average of the 10 airlines’ results, with the colour giving a rough guide to how healthy this profit level is. It is worth remembering that, historically, airlines have exhibited very slim profit margins. According to IATA, the best year for airline profits was 2015, with an operating margin of 8.5%. It forecasts 2024 to achieve 6% margin.
Latest Airline Financial Results Show a Mixed Picture
Source: Airline announcements, Cirium Core, Cirium Ascend Consultancy analysis. * unweighted Airlines: Green = better than same period last year, Red = worse, Amber = within +/- 1%. Regional averages: Green = >7%, Amber = 1-7%, Red = <1% or loss making
At first glance, the chart looks poor, with the majority of airlines being ‘red’. Several major airlines mentioned increased costs as being a contributory factor. In Asia, Singapore Airlines reminded that 2023 was an exceptional year, being the year of ‘rebound’ post-Covid, marked by very high passenger yields.
The US market generally saw lower margins than elsewhere, but there were major contrasts within the results.
In particular, the low-cost airlines struggled, with overcapacity and resultant yield pressures generally.
This trend has been brought to a head with the Chapter 11 filing for Spirit Airlines, which will remove some excess capacity – more of which later.
European airlines had also seen extremely high profitability in summer 2023. Things look worse this year, but the results are actually good when compared to historic averages. Note that SAS emerged from bankruptcy protection in August, and has not filed results for recent quarters.
In China, one might expect to see better profits, given the strong traffic recovery this year, and the recovery in international travel. However, the combined operating margin of the ‘Big 3’ state-owned airlines was just 1-2%. These airlines give no commentary on the market conditions in their stock exchange filings, but it is presumed that profitability is not their number one priority, with the rebuilding of capacity and networks being more of a driver. Anecdotally, it also appears they are poor at yield management and slow to react to market pressures.
Despite some headwinds in Q3, several airlines made more positive statements about the outlook for winter 2024-2025.
In Asia, several pointed to strong forward bookings, and the continued recovery in international traffic. European airlines also generally made upbeat comments on bookings and passenger demand. The story in the US is a little different, with airlines pointing to better capacity management, with several having lowered their capacity growth plans, or even decided to cut year-on-year seat kilometres (ASKs).
The second chart shows Cirium forward schedule data for the coming season, comparing the latest schedule to that in place back in July. The US market has been highlighted, where capacity plans have been cut significantly, led by the low-cost sector. This includes adjustments made at JetBlue, Southwest Airlines and Spirit. The latter had already announced the removal of 23 A320ceo family aircraft from the fleet in a deal with GA Telesis.
Airline Capacity Plans for Winter 2024-2025
Source: Cirium schedules data
Back in July, global capacity for Q4 was up 8.5% over 2023. This has now fallen to 6.5%, even though the July forward schedule still had some airlines with incomplete data. The US airlines have driven this change, as well as those in Latin America. US capacity in December 2024 was due to expand by 6.3% year-on-year, but this has now been cut by more than half, with the latest schedule only up 2.8% over 2023. The accompanying table summarises US airline capacity, by carrier. All carriers except Southwest and Allegiant have cut growth plans, but the absolute figures for December now show a marked contrast between the three largest airlines and the low-cost sector.
US Airline Capacity Growth (December 2024 vs. December 2023)
December 2024 ASKs (as at July)
December 2024 ASKs (as at November)
United
9.7%
6.0%
American
8.0%
4.1%
Delta
9.8%
6.3%
Southwest
-5.2%
-5.1%
Alaska
9.4%
2.9%
JetBlue
-0.7%
-1.3%
Spirit
-0.2%
-17.8%
Frontier
15.1%
2.1%
Allegiant
15.7%
16.2%
Slower capacity growth is undoubtedly a positive for airlines over the coming quarters. Some of this is due to the continued issues with Pratt & Whitney GTF-powered aircraft, where the stored fleet of over 600 A320/A321neos would add around 1.5% to global capacity if they were fully utilised. This, combined with a lack of new deliveries by Boeing, is certainly a factor in airlines’ plans at present, but may provide a bonus for airline investors as we enter 2025.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
In aviation, optimal “flight block time” is integral to ensuring smooth, timely and cost-effective airline operations. As competition heightens and passengers demand greater punctuality, airlines rely heavily on accurate block time calculations to optimize schedules and improve overall efficiency. But what exactly is flight block time, and how do airlines leverage it to drive operational success? Moreover, how do innovative analytics, such as those from Cirium, enable airlines to refine their approach?
What is Flight Block Time?
Flight block time refers to the total time an aircraft is *blocked*, or occupied, from the moment it leaves the gate at the departure airport to the moment it arrives at the gate of the destination airport. It consists of four key phases:
Taxi-out: Time spent from pushback to taking off.
Takeoff to touchdown: Time spent in the air, known as airborne time.
Taxi-in: Time spent taxiing to the gate after landing.
Additional variables: Includes delays, air traffic control (ATC) considerations and runway congestion, which can fluctuate and impact the total block time.
Accurate block time is crucial not just for efficient scheduling but also for delivering reliable and punctual services. Airlines need a fine balance—overestimating block times can cause inefficient scheduling, higher operational costs, and poor use of aircraft assets; while underestimating it can result in cascading flight delays and impact aircraft turn times that can result in customer dissatisfaction and increased penalties.
How Airlines Optimize Schedules Using Block Time
Airlines use flight block time to optimize flight schedules in numerous ways:
Precision in scheduling: By fine-tuning block times, airlines can better align their departure and arrival schedules, minimizing gaps and improving aircraft utilization. The goal is to ensure that flights operate within the allocated time, factoring real-life operational events reducing the chance of delay-induced disruption.
Resource management: Accurate block time calculations help airlines maximize resources, including aircraft, crew and ground personnel. This ensures seamless transitions between flights and reduces the likelihood of extended ground times.
Fuel efficiency and emission reduction: Block time directly affects fuel consumption. Precise planning reduces the need for extra fuel reserves carried and the added carrying weight, leading to more efficient fuel use, sustainable climate-friendly flights and lower operational costs.
On-Time Performance (OTP): Airlines are measured by individual OTP—how often scheduled departure and arrival times are met. Properly calculated block times help airlines maintain and/or improve OTP, thus enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty.
Minimizing Delays: By anticipating block time variability due to factors like weather or ATC delays, airlines can adjust schedules to mitigate the ripple effect of delays on subsequent flights.
How Cirium’s Analytic Solutions Empower Airlines
Given the myriads of variables affecting flight operations, airlines are turning to data analytics to improve the accuracy and reliability of block time calculations. This is where Cirium – the global leader and trusted source of aviation data and analytics- plays a transformative role.
Cirium provides a range of analytic solutions to enable airlines to make data-driven decisions, optimize block time and drive operational efficiency:
Flight status data: Cirium’s real-time flight status data allows airlines to monitor block time performance. By providing precise departure and arrival information, airlines can recalibrate schedules to prevent or minimize delays or disruptions from cascading across their network.
Historical data analysis: Cirium’s analytics leverage vast amounts of historical flight data so that airlines can model future schedules. This includes identifying patterns related to airport congestion, seasonal traffic, weather impacts and even route inefficiencies. Airlines use these insights to fine-tune block time estimates, reducing unnecessary buffers and improving OTP.
Predictive analytics: With predictive insights, airlines can anticipate irregularities like weather disruptions or ATC constraints, allowing for dynamic adjustments in block time. Cirium’s predictive tools enable airlines to build in contingency plans or react to anticipated disruptions without overcommitting resources, thereby maintaining both operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.
Benchmarking performance: Cirium’s analytics also provide benchmarking capabilities, allowing airlines to compare OTP and scheduling efficiency against themselves and competitors. This helps to pinpoint opportunities for improvement in block time planning.
Disruption management: When disruptions do occur, Cirium’s analytics can assist airlines to manage rerouting and scheduling adjustments quickly, ensuring minimal impact on operations and passenger experience.
Enhancing Airline Efficiency With Advanced Block Time Analytics
Accurate flight block time calculation is essential for airlines striving to operate efficiently in a highly competitive industry. Airlines must consider multiple dynamic factors when estimating block time, including airborne time, ground operations, weather and ATC delays. With the help of advanced analytics from Cirium, airlines can better predict, optimize and respond to fluctuations in block time, leading to improved punctuality, resource management, and customer satisfaction.
In an industry where time truly is money, solutions like Cirium’s provide airlines with the tools they need to not only optimize block time but also enhance their overall performance and remain competitive in the market. By embracing data-driven insights, airlines can ensure their flight schedules are as precise and efficient as possible, paving the way for more reliable and profitable operations.
As we race towards the end of the year, I’ve examined how values and lease rates for spare engines have evolved in 2024, and what has driven the significant movements in this market.
Overall, Market Values for engines that power narrowbody aircraft have risen by around 12.3% over the last five-year period (on a fleet-weighted average basis). With the demand for single-aisle passenger aircraft rebounding post the pandemic, coupled with expensive new materials and high inflation on OEM list pricing, new-generation engine values have strengthened. Further, as the engine shop visit turnaround times increased, attention has turned to the green time remaining on the previous-generation engines that could be deployed into service, thereby increasing the value of maintenance on these engines as well as the asset market value. Lease Rates have exhibited strong increases as well over the last five years.
Meanwhile, values for engines powering other asset classes such as regional jet, regional turboprop and widebody have not yet returned fully to pre-pandemic levels (on a fleet-weighted average basis).
In the regionals sector, demand has been slower to trickle through; and on the twin-aisle sector, OEMs tend to tie in list prices with comprehensive engine maintenance programmes, coupled with lower utilisation on twin-aisles meaning fewer spares are needed. Widebody engine Lease Rates, however, have risen over the last few years and surpassed their pre-pandemic levels.
Source: Cirium Core, Ascend Consultancy analysis
Looking more closely at the key single-aisle associated engines over the last year, we can observe the correlation between Values and Lease Rates for previous-generation powerplants (CFM56-5B, -7B, V2527) rising strongly on the back of more modest increases or stability in the Values and Lease Rates of the new-generation engines (PW1127G, Leap-1A and Leap-1B). A notable exception here is the PW1127G, where Lease Rates saw increases of up to 30% as a result of the scale of the powder-metal contamination issues resulting in the wide-scale aircraft grounding (564 A320neo family aircraft stored) and the removal of an average of around 1,100 engines throughout 2024.
Source: Cirium Core, Ascend Consultancy analysis
Turning to the twin-aisle sector, there is less correlation between the technology of the engines. Rather, the notable increases in both Market Value and Market Lease Rates have been on the engines that support the Airbus A330ceo or the Boeing 777-200LR/300ER platforms, both of which have seen substantial improvement in their values in 2024.
As long-haul traffic recovered in 2024, these workhorses of the twin-aisle segment have proven the preferred choice for airlines re-deploying this capacity.
In addition, both aircraft types offer conversion potential to freighter configuration, increasing the demand for spare engines. Of the A330 engine choices, although the GE CF6-80E1 has shown the largest increases this year, it trails behind both the Pratt & Whitney PW4168 and the Rolls-Royce Trent 772 when compared to pre-pandemic levels, with only the latter engine seeing its values and lease rates higher than pre-pandemic due to these engines typically having more green time available, with several examples still on their first run.
Source: Cirium Core, Ascend Consultancy analysis
The increase in the value of maintenance particularly, for the engines that power single-aisles, has led us to increase our expectations for their longer-term values as well. In fact, our analysis of the depreciation of the value of the engine overhaul and life-limited part stack has shown that these are falling less rapidly than before, and consequently we made several changes to how much we depreciate these into the future. For key single-aisle engine types such as the CFM56-5B, CFM56-7B, and the IAE V2500-A5, depreciation through their Phase 2 (stable phase) has been reduced to 4% per annum, resulting in stronger residual values for the Airbus A320ceo and Boeing 737NG platforms they power. Furthermore, engine OEMs have advised that the technological improvements that are in development currently are expected to be retrofittable. Therefore, such engines are now not expected to see their values decline prematurely due to replacement by a more efficient version of the same engine.
To find out more about how these affect aircraft values and lease rates, or to find a similar summary of our aircraft values, please join the Cirium Ascend Consultancy webinar on 12 December where I will be joined by Rob Morris and George Dimitroff to take stock of this year and look ahead to 2025. In the meantime, if you enjoyed this analysis, please take a moment to consider voting for us as your Appraiser of the Year; you can cast your vote here.
On the back of growth in global trade, especially the booming e-commerce, and continuing capacity constraints on maritime shipping, international cargo market is showing strong growth in 2024 again. According to IATA’s figures, demand for air freight rose by 11.4% in August, representing the ninth consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth, with overall levels reaching heights not seen since the record peaks of 2021. Just one month later, IATA’s figures shows that air freight rose again by 9.4% in September, representing the 14th consecutive month of growth.
According to Cirium’s tracked utilization data, in terms of tracked number of departing freighter aircraft, tracked aircraft number has increased by 32% globally between the first 10 months of 2024, over the same period of 2019.
For the top 10 ranking air freight markets, China’s growth leads the way with 85% growth, followed by United Arab Emirates at 48% and Hong Kong SAR at 45%. as shown in the below chart. The United States is still the largest air freight market with growth of 28%. The United Kingdom is the only country that has declined at -2% in the top 10 list.
Source: Cirium Core, commercial widebody & single aisle freighters
China as the global manufacturing centre, benefits hugely from the surge in e-commerce demand given the country’s dominating position in global trade and export, which therefore has led to the booming of its air freight sector. However, China’s current dedicated cargo fleet especially the widebody fleet seems to be lagging the pace in which international trade demand has been grown and appeared to be not matching the country’s status as a global manufacturing centre.
Various comments have gone around in the market recently, about that there are plenty of widebody freighter requests in Asia, especially in China/Hong Kong.
The logistics companies are eager to get more space, but the operators cannot offer enough capacity which has consequently driven up shipping prices.
To understand the magnitude of Chinese carriers’ freighter capacity supply shortfall towards the above mentioned situation, number of tracked outbound freighter aircraft from China by domestic carriers is assessed below, and is compared with number of tracked outbound freighter aircraft by foreign carriers from China.
Source: Cirium Core, commercial widebody & single aisle freighters
As shown in the above chart, number of tracked outbound freighter aircraft by domestic freight carriers has been more than doubled during the first 10 months of 2024, compared with the pre-pandemic level.
During this period, according to Cirium’s fleet data, China’s freighter fleet (including both narrowbody and widebody) has grown from just less than 160 aircraft in 2019 to around 230 in 2024, with widebody freighter fleet grown from less than 50 aircraft to around 90.
The growth of domestic freighter fleet seems to be fast but is such growth enough to fulfill the demand?
As shown in the below chart, when compared with the above chart, number of tracked outbound freighter aircraft from China by foreign freight carriers is 126% more than domestic freight carriers.
In addition, when compare with pre-pandemic level, number of tracked outbound freighter aircraft from China by foreign freight carriers has grown by 51% after the pandemic.
Source: Cirium Core, commercial widebody & single aisle freighters
In the short term, the outlook for air cargo market is positive, with businesses replenishing inventories in preparation for the year-end festive season. In the longer term, if China can withhold its position as the global manufacturing centre as well as sustaining the robust development momentum of its e-commerce sector, despite the challenges it also faces with ongoing geopolitical tensions with other countries and regions which may impact China’s export and international trading, the country will need to further expand its domestic freighter fleet power especially in the widebody category as a means to compete with foreign operators for dominance in the local market.
Nevertheless, persistent OEM delays and supply chain disruptions continue to pose challenges to carriers in acquiring either new freighters or converted freighters.
This requires domestic carriers to have a long-term strategic vision in terms of anticipating future growth needs, and decisively place orders with OEMs to lock in earlier future delivery slots before OEMs’ slots are filled by orders from other carriers.
Chinese carriers currently have around 10 remaining orders for the current generation 777 freighters, but no orders have been placed yet for the new A350F and 777-8F. The latter two types have a combined orderbook of well over 100 aircraft to date, and deliveries are expected to only begin after 2026 and 2028 respectively.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s recent webinar on the freighter market is available to view on demand. WATCH NOW.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Eric Tamang, Valuations Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
Towards the end of the year, the advanced air mobility (AAM) market reflected the changing seasons with a gradual cooling, influenced by spiking interest rates and the rising cost of capital. Yet, in the face of these headwinds, the number of commitments recorded in Cirium’s database increased to over 14,815 as of 11 October 2024, with over 900 secured since our last update in July 2024.
eVTOLs – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)
The eVTOL – UAM sector has generated the most activity in the market both in terms of the number of aircraft in development, and commitments received to date. Since the last update in July 2024, the sector has attracted 416 new order commitments. The space now has a total of slightly over 11,000 order commitments captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer. Eve Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to lead the sector with 2,900 and 1,550 commitments respectively.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 11th October 2024
The global market for eVTOLs shows a varied regional distribution, with strong order commitments in North America (4,686), Asia-Pacific (3,903) and Europe (1,938), driven by differing levels of technological advancement, regulatory backing and investment interest.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 11th October 2024
Certification Issues Delay Demonstration
There have been a number of exciting announcements where we hoped to see the AAM sector take off. One such instance was the Paris Olympics, where Volocopter intended to operate an air taxi service, but this did not happen due to delays in certification of the aircraft’s engines.
Another much anticipated event is the 2025 World Expo in Osaka, where there were plans to operate flying taxis.
However, all four operators (Japan Airlines, ANA Holdings, Marubeni and SkyDrive) have cancelled these plans due to safety certification delays, and the operators are still planning to conduct demonstration flights without passengers.
So What Are the Different Aspects That Need Certification?
Governing bodies like EASA, CAA and FAA collaborate with aircraft manufacturers to develop a set of regulations that guarantee the safety and airworthiness of an aircraft throughout its design, production, and modification phases. Manufacturers are required to carry out extensive testing programmes to demonstrate compliance with these standards.
eVTOLs are a new type of aircraft with technologies and concepts that have never been certificated before. As such, authorities are collaborating with manufacturers to write the rulebook on eVTOL certification.
According to David Solar, head of general aviation and vertical take-off and landing at EASA, the certification process for an eVTOL propeller differs from that of a conventional aircraft.
The design of the propeller is tailored to the specific aircraft configuration, considering factors such as the aircraft’s objectives and the transition from vertical to horizontal flight.
Manufacturers must evaluate loading conditions, perform fatigue tests, and demonstrate that the propeller is suitable for flight.
In addition, the different flight paths of cargo and passenger aircraft could result in different certification requirements. Cargo aircraft operating outside of cities can have lower security standards, but more stringent requirements could apply to passenger aircraft and cargo operations over congested areas.
Another aspect to certify is the use of modern electric powertrains. One major challenge is balancing battery energy density with payload capacity. The battery’s weight affects the propulsion required to keep the aircraft airborne, ultimately impacting range performance. Advances in battery weight-to-power ratio and aerodynamic efficiency are crucial for improving eVTOL performance.
Last but not least are certification of the infrastructure needed to support the operation of these aircraft such as the airspace and vertiports. With vertiports being scattered around the city, the impact of noise could be detrimental. As for airspace, these aircraft would utilise low attitude airspace which is already quite congested in certain cities with general aviation aircraft. Ensuring proper airspace management and separation could be a challenge.
Rolls-royce to Divest Electric Engine Division
Engines for eVTOLs will be provided by specialist engine manufacturers rather than the aircraft OEM, following the same model as traditional aircraft designs. In the market, there are several electric engine suppliers, including both traditional engine OEMs and new entrants.
Towards the end of 2023, Rolls-Royce, a high-profile engine OEM, announced that it was open to offers from prospective buyers for its Electrical engine division.
However, at the end of September 2024, Rolls-Royce made an announcement stating that it had elected to shut down its electrical propulsion unit called Rolls-Royce Electrical. This decision came after failing to find a buyer for the business, according to Aviation Week.
As a result of this development, UK-based Vertical Aerospace’s VX4 is now left searching for alternative options since Rolls-Royce was its chosen engine partner. Despite this setback, Vertical Aerospace insists that they are still on track to meet the CAA certification timeline which has been revised from 2024 to either 2025 or 2026.
According to Aerospace Global News reports, Rolls-Royce’s decision to divest from its electrical propulsion unit is “driven by their need to readdress their balance sheet and focus on investments with short- and medium-term returns”. This suggests that Rolls-Royce anticipates any returns in the electric space will be a long-term prospect, which begs questions such as –
Will there be a domino effect, with more similar announcements of divestment or changes in strategy, from other major players within the industry? Such announcements could have cascading effects on the overall landscape of electric aviation, including the eVTOL sector.
Will the announcement affect investor confidence in the electric aviation industry? Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in the growth and development of emerging industries, and any shifts in sentiment may have repercussions on funding and future investments.
Will this divestment announcement alter the competitive dynamics within the eVTOL industry? It could create gaps or opportunities that other companies or new entrants may seek to fill. New partnerships or collaborations could also emerge as companies reevaluate their strategies and seek alternative solutions.
Time will be the ultimate judge of how sentiments regarding this divestment will resonate across the eVTOL industry.
Business Electric – Multi-Engine
In the business electric sector, Electra’s eSTOL has received almost 1,350 order commitments, including from notable clients like the helicopter lessor Bristow Group. However, the identities of the majority of these order commitments remain undisclosed. Aura Aero’s ERA holds second place with 570 order commitments. Heart Aerospace’s ES-30 follows in third place with over 530 order commitments after the ES-19 programme was cancelled and switched to the ES-30.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 11th October 2024
The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us.
