Mention “snowbirds” to a Floridian and most will think of Canadians. In South Florida, that long-standing seasonal migration is so familiar that some neighborhoods even bear French Canadian street names.
But economic headwinds and political uncertainty have begun to reshape one of the world’s busiest cross-border air markets. Canadian carriers, in particular, are adjusting their schedules — and Florida is feeling the impact. And, the bookings appear to be taking a hit.
U.S.–Canada: A Vital Transborder Corridor
The United States remains the top international destination for Canadian travelers, while Canada ranks just behind Mexico for U.S. outbound passengers, according to Cirium data. The transborder market connects nearly 190 city pairs, including high-frequency routes like Toronto to New York City, which alone sees roughly 4,000 daily seats.
Using Cirium’s Diio airline planning system, we reviewed airline schedule changes for April through June 2025. The analysis compares data as filed on January 31, 2025, with updated schedules from late March. And, using Cirium’s Diio Advance Bookings tool, we analyzed forward bookings — for which there are some very important caveats.
Scheduled Capacity Down Since January
Overall, carriers are offering 4.4% fewer seats between Canada and the U.S. for April–June 2025 than they were back in January. Canadian airlines, which operate the bulk of this capacity, have made steeper cuts — down 6.1% on average.
For example, in April alone, airlines initially scheduled 13,555 flights. That number has now dropped to 13,100 — a reduction of roughly 400 flights. Signs of this pullback first emerged in March and have since extended into the spring months.
April 2025 vs. April 2024
When comparing this April to the same month last year, scheduled capacity is generally lower. The Canadian dollar’s continued weakness and ongoing political tensions have likely played a role in these reductions.
Air Canada’s seats are down more than 9% year-over-year, with WestJet reducing capacity by nearly 5%. United, by contrast, is growing its presence in the market with an 8.5% increase in seats. Meanwhile, Porter Airlines, which has deployed its new Embraer E2-195 jets, is directing 23% of its available seat miles to U.S. destinations this April.
Airline
Apr-25
Apr-24
Diff
Percent Diff
Air Canada
623,461
686,644
-63,183
-9.20%
WestJet
244,032
255,989
-11,957
-4.67%
United Airlines
190,276
175,322
14,954
8.53%
Delta Air Lines
121,417
119,406
2,011
1.68%
Porter Airlines
119,292
83,736
35,556
42.46%
American Airlines
112,644
103,118
9,526
9.24%
Flair Airlines
40,446
63,049
-22,603
-35.85%
Alaska Airlines
32,092
29,517
2,575
8.72%
Air Transat
21,595
28,989
-7,394
-25.51%
JetBlue
4,770
4,860
-90
-1.85%
Florida: A Sharper Decline
Florida stands out. Traditionally a strong seasonal market for Canadian carriers — particularly in fall, winter, and spring — it’s now seeing significant pullbacks. Compared to January schedules, seat capacity for April through June is down more than 20% as of late March for destinations like Fort Lauderdale and Miami. The cuts are less severe in Orlando, but the overall trend points to caution among carriers.
Watching the Summer Booking Curve
When we talk about advance bookings data, it’s important to note that our insights come from online travel agencies—not direct airline bookings. And since most bookings still happen directly with the airlines, this means we’re looking at a sample, not the full picture. Some carriers don’t distribute through OTAs or GDS at all.
So while the data can point us in the right direction, it’s more directional than definitive.
We performed an analysis of bookings made between January and March 2025 for travel in April, May, and June, and compared them to the same period in 2024. The analysis focused on departures from Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary to key U.S. destinations—New York-area airports, Los Angeles, Chicago, Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, and Denver. It’s not the full picture, of course. But on third-party channels, bookings are down by about 20.5%. Only the airlines have the full view of what the actual decline looks like.
Despite current reductions and potential reductions in bookings, the U.S. remains a critical market for both Canadian and U.S. airlines. Canadian carriers, in particular, depend on robust transborder demand — whether for business, family connections, or leisure. Airlines on both sides of the border will be closely monitoring booking trends as the summer season approaches.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
There continues to be much talk about commercial aircraft deficits. Cirium Ascend Consultancy has explained before that in reality these amount to a deficit of new aircraft caused by the inability of Airbus and Boeing to increase production as rapidly as they would like, for a multitude of reasons. Last year they delivered 766 and 348 aircraft respectively across their commercial jet programmes, including a handful of aircraft for non-commercial roles. For 2025 Airbus has stated a delivery guidance of 820. Boeing has been silent, but we have a working estimate of 610 units.
As the first quarter closed on Monday, we now have initial estimates for March, and hence first quarter, deliveries. Cirium’s fleet data indicates that Airbus delivered 69 aircraft in the month, including 18 A320s, 33 A321s, 10 A220s, two A330-900s and six A350-900s. Consequently, first quarter shipments total 134. Looking at data for the past 15 years (2010-2024), Airbus has historically averaged 20% of total annual deliveries in the first quarter. Hence, this cumulative 134 Q1 total suggests a 2025 annual total of 660, significantly short of the 820 target.
However, Airbus was clear in its February briefing that we should expect lower deliveries in the early part of the year due to a relative shortage of engine deliveries, particularly CFM Leap for the A320 family. There is some evidence of this through analysis of aircraft backlog and production progress. Cirium data indicates that Airbus currently has 43 A320 family aircraft which have flown but not yet been delivered, whilst further research suggests there are at least 70 which have been rolled out of the respective final assembly lines but which have not yet flown. These include 43 aircraft which Cirium data indicates will be powered by Leap engines when finally delivered.
Hence, Airbus has potential to increase delivery rates in the second quarter (and beyond) as they work through these aircraft. There are also signs of increasing A320 production pace again, with 53 first flights detected in March (compared to 42 in February and only 38 in January; as an aside there were also three on 1 April), perhaps headed back towards the average close to 60 seen in the final quarter of 2024. Since Airbus stated an expectation of 820 deliveries this year only a few weeks ago, it seems likely that this slow progress was already expected and at present there is no reason to doubt that number.
Over at Boeing, Cirium estimates 41 deliveries in March including 33 737 Max, four 787s and four 777-200LRFs, taking the Q1 total to 130. The US OEM has historically delivered 24.5% of annual deliveries in the first quarter and hence there is an indication of 530 total, again relatively short of our 610 expectation for the year. However, we know that Boeing is working through a ramp-up on the 737 line and first flight data indicates 27 aircraft built in March, up from an average of 23 in the first two months of the year and as few as 10 in November 2024. Expectations of achieving the FAA-imposed cap of 38 per month by mid-year seem reasonable.
Boeing’s deliveries are also being augmented by inventory aircraft. In 2025 to date almost 25% of 737 Max deliveries have been aircraft that flew more than 90 days prior to delivery. Although the pace of delivery of such aircraft seems to have slowed in March, with only four amongst the 33 total, there are still some 34 737-8s in inventory which seem likely to be delivered this year. If 737-7 deliveries could begin in 2025 (post-certification) then there are a further 28 potential deliveries there. The upside opportunity is completed with the 787 programme, where Cirium data indicates 25 aircraft flown prior to 2025 yet to be delivered (including 13 specifically for Lufthansa which are delayed by seat supply issues).
In summary, provisional first quarter delivery data indicates that both Airbus and Boeing face significant challenges if they are to achieve 2025’s delivery targets. However, there are clear data arguments to suggest that we should see volumes increase in the coming months. Therefore, it seems premature to be revising those targets downwards yet.
As a postscript, what about Comac? Following 13 C919 deliveries in 2024, we have seen suggestions of around 30 in 2025. We have also very recently seen reports of the three major Chinese airlines – China Eastern, Air China and China Southern – expecting 10, 12 and 10 C919 deliveries respectively this year. Yet in the first quarter Cirium’s data records only a single unit delivered to Comac Express. I bear this slow progress in mind each time I hear comments about Comac’s potential to break the duopoly. The challenge in Shanghai is clearly at least as great as those faced by Airbus and Boeing.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
As the aviation industry continues to navigate supply chain disruptions and reliability concerns, the challenges surrounding new-generation engines remain a critical focal point. As of March 10, 2025more than 600 PW1100G-powered A320 family aircraft remain parked, accounting for 35% of the global fleet. While some suggest the worst may be over, caution is warranted. In contrast, the parked LEAP engine fleet is small and continues to decline in line with seasonal trend, signaling a more stable trajectory for its operational fleet.
RTX reported $1.1 billion in GTF engine compensation payments in 2024, with further projected payouts between $1.1 and $1.3 billion in 2025, underscoring the financial burden caused by ongoing groundings. These payments are issued as aircraft-on-ground (AOG) incidents occur, reflecting the sustained impact on airline operations.
Source: Cirium Core, 10 March 2025 (aircraft classified as parked following 7 continuous days of inactivity and therefore subject to restatement in near-term)
Engine Production and Delivery Constraints
RTX, the parent company of Pratt & Whitney, has signalled a 14% increase in large commercial engine production in 2025, with a slight increase in installations relative to additions to the spares pool. Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s analysis-driven 2025 delivery projections appear to show downside risk when compared to statements made by RTX as well as its competitor, in terms of supporting airframers to achieve their delivery targets for 2025.
While the powder metallurgy issue is expected to be largely resolved within the next 18–24 months, other technical and supply chain challenges persist. The uncertainty surrounding next-generation engine technologies through 2030 is prompting airlines to retain CFM56 and IAE-powered aircraft longer than initially planned. This trend suggests sustained demand for older-generation engines well into the 2030s, albeit at lower price points than currently.
Market Value Trends in Single-Aisle Aircraft
The following analysis of fleet-weighted market values for key single-aisle aircraft, indexed to December 2019 levels, highlights some notable trends:
Source: Cirium Core Current Market Values indexed to December 2019, on a fleet-weighted and constant-age basis
The A320ceo and 737-800 have shown the most significant value appreciation. Mid-life 737NG values saw an uptick in Q1 2025. The A320ceo family is currently under review, but both A320 and A321 are expected to show a stable trend alongside other mid-life narrowbody aircraft.
Older-generation aircraft values remain robust, supported by strong engine demand. Data indicates that lease extension levels are higher through 2023 and 2024 than in the latter years of the prior cycle. While demand for CFM56 and IAE engines remains solid over the next three years, supply constraints could ease once new production ramps up and more aircraft undergo part-out. A potential weakening in macroeconomic conditions and passenger demand could accelerate this timeline, but for now, the market remains resilient.
Despite production increases, PW1100G-related disruptions will likely persist for the rest of the decade, reinforcing the need for strategic fleet planning among airlines and lessors.
Cirium is proud to be the Official Data Analytics Partner of Aircraft Interiors Expo 2025.
James Mellon, Senior Aviation Data Research Analyst, Cirium
A large proportion of widebody-operated flights is accounted for by younger, more efficient aircraft types – the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 – but the 777 is still a core type for long-haul flying. Cirium schedules data shows that in the week commencing 7 April (the week of Aircraft Interiors Expo), 14% of widebody flights will be operated with a Boeing 777-300ER. There are 757 examples in service according to Cirium fleets data, so it is clear that the 777-300ER will continue to fly for many years to come. However, given the persisting issues affecting the industry, reliance on the 777-300ER (and other legacy aircraft types) may be greater than ever.
New widebodies are being manufactured and delivered at a slower pace than projected. Brand-new aircraft such as the 777X (the 777-300ER’s successor) have issues to resolve ahead of certification, delaying entry into service. New interior products also face certification issues, and the general supply-chain troubles continue to rumble on. This is causing airlines to reconsider how much longer they need to keep their current aircraft in service.
Production of the 777-300ER officially concluded in 2024, and with 97% of the airframes manufactured still in service or in storage, a significant number of these will operate through the 2030s and possibly into the early 2040s.
Several airlines have recently announced that their 777-300ERs will undergo cabin retrofits to bring new interior products on board, as a part of extending the service life of these airframes. In this analysis, we look at the fleets that have been retrofitted over the past few years and those likely to head into hangars soon.
Current and Completed Retrofits
Cirium’s Ground Events data capability shows that 98 Boeing 777-300ERs have been retrofitted with new cabins since the beginning of 2020. Even during the pandemic, work was undertaken to refresh the interiors of aircraft.
Between 2022 and 2024, Air France completed retrofits of 12 aircraft, the second sub-fleet of 777-300ERs to undergo such work. The changes resulted in a slight reduction in total seat count, from 381 to 369. What is notable is the 100% increase in premium-economy seat capacity, the cabin having doubled in size from 24 to 48 seats. The Recaro PL3530 seats of that cabin were installed together with CL3710s in economy, plus 48 Safran Cirrus business-class seats. Ground Events data shows that some retrofits were undertaken in-house with AFI KLM Engineering & Maintenance at Paris Orly, while others were outsourced to Sabena Technics, with aircraft visiting its Bordeaux facility.
Air France’s partner airline KLM has recently retrofitted its 777-300ER fleet. The modifications were undertaken in-house by KLM Engineering & Maintenance at Amsterdam Schiphol. Jamco Venture business-class seats have been installed, together with Collins MiQ seats, creating brand-new premium economy cabins. The Dutch carrier introduced premium economy in 2022, and it is now available on board 55 Boeing 777s and 787s.
Another airline to have recently introduced premium economy is Swiss, following the other Lufthansa Group airlines. Just like Lufthansa and Austrian, Swiss uses seats from ZIM. Ground Events data shows that Swiss’s 12 777-300ERs had retrofit events at Zurich between February and June 2022. In each, 24 ZIM PC-02 seats were installed by the airline’s in-house MRO provider.
During 2019, ANA took delivery of six brand-new 777-300ERs with new interior products, including ‘The Suite’ first class and ‘The Room’ business class. The Japanese airline’ ambitions to retrofit many of the older airframes with these new interiors were subsequently scaled back as a consequence of the pandemic. Cirium fleets data shows that 15 older examples were retired between December 2020 and December 2022, reducing the fleet of -300ERs 53%. So far, four of the 2009/10 vintage airframes have visited the ANA Base Maintenance Technics facility at Tokyo Narita or HAECO in Xiamen for their retrofits, according to Ground Events. Three 2015-build aircraft that still carry the old interiors have yet to undergo this work, assuming all will be retrofitted.
Cathay Pacific has embarked on a retrofit programme set to refresh most of its aircraft over the coming years. So far, three aircraft have emerged from HAECO in Xiamen with retrofitted interiors, Ground Events data indicates. The brand-new business-class ‘Aria Suites’ are manufactured by Collins Aerospace. Recaro is the supplier of new seats for an expanded premium-economy cabin, while the current Recaro seats in economy class are being refreshed with new covers.
The aircraft retrofitted so far have had some interesting changes to their capacity make-up. Premium economy capacity has increased 41%, from 34 to 48 seats, reflecting the wider recent trend of growth in such cabins. Meanwhile, the number of business-class seats has reduced from 53 to 45, bucking the trend, and the first-class cabins have been removed from these aircraft. Despite this, Cathay Pacific is not eliminating its first-class product entirely. Some of the four-class configured 777-300ERs will retain these cabins for the foreseeable future, until they are replaced by new first-class suites arriving on board the 777Xs Cathay expects to receive.
Premium Dynamics
The number of airlines offering first-class cabins has gradually reduced over time, but a handful of major carriers still do so.
When British Airways retrofitted 12 777-300ERs at its Cardiff maintenance facility, the first-class cabins were downsized from 14 to 8 seats. Conversely, the business-class cabins grew from 56 to 76 seats.
Qatar Airways intends to maintain its most premium offering by including first-class suites on some of its Boeing 777Xs. These aircraft are set to replace a fleet of 10 Airbus A380s, the only aircraft in the Qatar fleet that feature first class: eight seats per aircraft.
The latest airline to announce the elimination of first-class is American Airlines (albeit just from long-haul services). The 777-300ER is the only aircraft type in American’s widebody fleet to feature first. All 20 aircraft will be retrofitted, involving the removal of the eight first-class seats. The business-class cabin will grow from 52 to 70 seats, with Adient’s Ascent used to provide product commonality with the airline’s latest 787-9s and Airbus A321XLRs.
Korean Air will remove first class from 11 of their 777-300ERs, while launching premium economy when retrofits commence later in 2025. The introduction of premium economy is one element of the airline unveiling its new corporate identity. Safran will provide the premium economy seats, while new business class seats will be manufactured by Collins Aerospace.
The increasing size of premium-economy cabins highlights the growing popularity of the “sweet spot” cabin. The example of Air France doubling the capacity on board its 369-seat aircraft is probably the most extreme growth witnessed so far.
As passenger expectations of business class are rising, layouts have standardised on a 1-2-1 arrangement, providing passengers with direct aisle access.
Emirates has begun a mammoth retrofit programme to update 81 of its 777-300ERs with new cabins. With 15% of the global 777-300ER fleet, Emirates is the model’s largest operator. Older business-class seats arranged in a 2-3-2 configuration are being replaced with new seats arranged as 1-2-1. The Middle Eastern airline is also bringing premium economy to these aircraft, following the introduction of the new cabin class on board its A380s from 2021. Ground Events data shows that 19 777-300ERs have been retrofitted in-house by Emirates Engineering at Dubai, with an average downtime of 23 days.
Outlook
So which other airlines are planning to retrofit their aircraft? And how many are we expecting to see retrofitted in future?
Air France will introduce brand-new first-class suites, to be retrofitted onto their sub-fleet of 19 aircraft which contain a four-cabin configuration. Some of these airframes are the oldest examples within the 43-aircraft 777-300ER fleet, with an average age of 19 years old.
Tata-owned Air India is undergoing a major transformation, one element of which is its revitalising of aircraft interiors. The carrier will begin retrofits of its 787-8 this year, before it begins updating its legacy fleet of 777-300ERs and 777-200LRs.
Having ordered new seats from Collins Aerospace, Saudia will retrofit its 777-300ERs, planned for 2026 and 2027. The fleet of 35 aircraft comprises airframes delivered between 2012 and 2017.
Turkish Airlines has turned to Safran and Turkish Cabin Industries to provide a new business-class seat for its 36-aircraft strong fleet. Arranged in the standard 1-2-1 configuration, the “Crystal” business-class seats will replace the current 2-3-2 layout.
Thai Airways will overhaul the cabins of at least 14 aircraft in the coming years. In addition to new seats and IFE in the first, business and economy cabins, premium economy will be reintroduced, having featured on some of the airlines widebodies in the past.
Meanwhile, EVA Air, which pioneered premium economy, will retrofit 14 777-300ERs, around half of its fleet of the aircraft. Adient Aerospace, Recaro and Safran will reportedly be involved in the supply of seats, together with a new in-flight entertainment system from Panasonic.
Decision Time for Airlines?
With these airlines preparing to update their aircraft, plus aforementioned airlines part-way through cabin work programmes, we expect to see around 260 further 777-300ERs retrofitted through to the end of the decade. Whether other airlines operating the aircraft type should also commit to updating their airframes hinges on some crucial factors.
How long before new widebodies intended to replace existing aircraft are delivered? With new aircraft delivery lead-times increasing, the dependence on keeping legacy types active for longer grows accordingly. Retirements of existing aircraft will be delayed longer. By keeping them in service airlines avoid a potential capacity shortage before new aircraft arrive. This could justify the business case for cabin retrofit work, extending the service life of the aircraft. Planning ahead by combining this with other required maintenance work would reduce the amount of downtime too.
Securing slots with capacity constrained MRO facilities, and sourcing the new interior products required are additional challenges. With many retrofits already planned for 777-300ERs and other legacy aircraft types, amid increasing demand for resources required to perform the work, it’s decision time for the airlines that have not yet committed to their fleet of the future.
Contact our team to discover how to leverage the industry’s most advanced and complete data to understand when, where and why aircraft are undergoing retrofits and other maintenance events.
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Paul Hayes, Director – Safety and Insurance, Cirium
Fatal airline accidents, especially those that result in the deaths of passengers as well as crew, are rare. In 2024, there were four accidents in which passengers were killed, much the same as the annual average over the last five years of 3.6. This is less than half the number of these accident types for the most recent decade (2010-19), in which the average was 8.6 per year, and a quarter of the average the previous decade, of 14.7. In earlier years, we might have typically seen something between about 20 and 30 fatal accidents per year. Over the last 30 years the average number of airline accidents involving passenger fatalities worldwide has halved every 10 years.
Source: Cirium Fleets and Accidents data
The number of passengers killed in these accidents follows the same trend of roughly halving every 10 years. The number of passengers killed in 2024, at 238, was high compared with 2023, but most resulted from a single accident, the Jeju Air Boeing 737 crash of 29 December, which resulted in 175 passenger fatalities. Nevertheless, the annual average number of passengers killed over the last five years, at about 137, is still less than half the average for the period 2010-19 which was 304, and barely a fifth of the previous decade’s average, of 680. Prior to that, 1,000 passenger fatalities per year on average was typical.
Source: Cirium Fleets and Accidents data
The frequency of aircraft accident reports in the media shapes public views of airline safety. However, this does not take into account changes in exposure. The number of accidents in which there are passenger fatalities and the number of passenger fatalities have both reduced significantly over the last 25-30 years. Each figure is at roughly a fifth of its level in the 1990s. However, over this period, air travel has grown rapidly, and there are now far more passenger flights and passengers flying – an estimated 5 billion passengers were carried during 2024 compared with around 1.5 billion in 1990. So, the number of fatalities has fallen 80% despite a trebling in passenger numbers. Simplistically, the likelihood of being killed in an air crash is one-seventeenth what it was 30 years ago.
Source: Cirium Fleets and Accidents data
The annual average passenger fatality rate in the five years to the end of 2024 was one per 27 million passengers carried. This rate is more than twice as good as it was last decade (2010-19), when it was one per 12.9 million carried, and almost eight times better than in the 2000-09 decade of one per 3.5 million passengers carried. The passenger fatality rate in the 1990s was only one per 1.8 million carried.
Southwest carefully engineered transformation, redefining reliability, and showcasing the impact of strategic improvements and a commitment to sustained performance.
Two years ago, Southwest Airlines faced one of the toughest challenges in its history. A holiday meltdown in December 2022 left the airline scrambling, cancelling nearly 17,000 flights and disrupting travel for over 2 million passengers. Social media swarmed with frustrated posts, and trust in the airline hit rock bottom. The crisis wasn’t just weather-driven; it exposed deeper flaws, from outdated scheduling systems to operational vulnerabilities. Industry watchers wondered if Southwest could recover.
Fast forward to February 2025, and the airline is writing a very different story. With an impressive on-time arrival rate of 82.27%, Southwest Airlines has been named North America’s most on-time airline by aviation analytics leader Cirium. It’s not just a comeback; it’s a transformation that began long before Winter Storm Elliott.How did Southwest go from crisis to champion?
A Turning Point Built on Leadership
Southwest didn’t just “fix” its problems; it overhauled the way it operates, said Justin Jones, the airline’s Executive Vice President of Operations. Speaking with Scott McCartney recently on the Airlines Confidential podcast, Jones described the monumental effort it took for the airline’s leadership team to steer the airline out of rough skies.
“We knew we couldn’t just patch things up and move on. It required rethinking everything—from technology to teamwork to how we schedule flights,” he explained.
Southwest didn’t just “fix” its problems; it overhauled the way it operates, said Justin Jones, the airline’s Executive Vice President of Operations. Speaking with Scott McCartney recently on the Airlines Confidential podcast, Jones described the monumental effort it took for the airline’s leadership team to steer the airline out of rough skies.
“We knew we couldn’t just patch things up and move on. It required rethinking everything—from technology to teamwork to how we schedule flights,” he explained.
This leadership approach reassured both employees and customers that resilience was a key part of Southwest’s operations.
How Southwest Took Back Control
Southwest’s recovery wasn’t built on short-term solutions or lucky breaks. It was a carefully engineered transformation, focused on key areas where their previous systems had failed.
1. Preparing An Operation Ready For The Future
Southwest recognized the need for stronger, more adaptable technology to support its growing network. While already working to modernize the operation, the airline accelerated its efforts—investing $1.3 billion in more modern IT systems, including automated flight rescheduling tools and advanced decision-making platforms. These upgrades go beyond short-term fixes—they are designed to enhance efficiency, improve resilience, and ensure Southwest can operate smoothly even in the most challenging conditions.
2. Weather Resilience Strategies
Winter weather may be unpredictable, but its disruptive power can be anticipated. Southwest strengthened its defenses by expanding de-icing capabilities, boosting airport coordination, and adjusting staffing protocols during storms. These improvements meant fewer last-minute scrambles and more efficient operations during extreme conditions.
3. Smarter Scheduling, Fewer Delays
By aligning Network Planning and the Network Operations Center under a single leader, Southwest brought network thinking into how it manages the business every day, including aircraft routing, cancellation decisions, and coordination with all operating groups.
4. More Crew, Fewer Complications
Southwest also tackled one of the biggest contributors to operational chaos: staffing. By hiring more pilots, flight attendants, and ground crew members, the airline ensured resources were available even during high-stress moments. Crew shortages, once a critical weak link, were no longer a stumbling block in delivering reliable service.
5. Extra Aircraft for Extra Assurance
To add further stability, Southwest increased its fleet rotation by incorporating more spare aircraft. This allowed for quicker recoveries from unexpected mechanical issues or delays, minimizing disruptions for passengers. (Southwest didn’t add more spare aircraft per se; they added more late departing originators to give mechanics more time to work on the aircraft overnight. TechOps took numerous steps to further reduce aircraft downtime.)
A New Era for Southwest
By 2024, Southwest’s efforts were already showing results. The airline achieved a cancellation rate of just 0.62%, the lowest in the industry and well ahead of the 1.63% industry average. During the busy summer months, they flew a record-breaking 54 million passengers while improving on-time performance by two percentage points.
But the real breakthrough came in early 2025. With an A14 rate in the low-to-mid 80s (a measure of flights arriving within 14 minutes and 59 second of the scheduled time), Southwest ascended to the top of Cirium’s on-time rankings.
This achievement signaled a shift in an industry where Delta Air Lines has long set the standard for operational reliability.
Southwest’s climb to the #1 spot was more than just a comeback—it showcased the impact of strategic improvements and a commitment to sustained performance.
More Than Numbers
Behind the metrics is a story of persistence, innovation, and teamwork. Employees who worked tirelessly to restore faith in the airline. Passengers who began to take notice, moving from frustration to praise for the airline’s newfound reliability.
Leadership, too, played its part by inspiring confidence. Justin Jones credited the turnaround not to any single decision, but to the collective spirit of a company determined to win back trust.
“You can’t plan your way out of a crisis like this overnight,” he noted. “It takes consistent effort and a commitment to doing what’s right for passengers and our employees.”
Lessons in Transformation
Southwest’s rise to the top offers valuable lessons for the aviation industry and beyond. When faced with operational challenges, many companies opt for quick fixes. However, Southwest took a different approach—investing in core infrastructure, refining its network strategy, and strengthening its teams—demonstrating that resilience comes from deliberate action and long-term commitment.
For passengers, the message is clear as well. Even brands that falter can become reliable again with transparency, hard work, and a relentless focus on improvement.
The Flight Ahead
While Southwest’s success is worth celebrating, its team knows the job isn’t done. Consistency will depend on maintaining the momentum they’ve established and adapting as new challenges emerge.
Southwest is working to maintain this momentum even as the recently announced move to charge for checked luggage will likely result in more gate-checked bags that could threaten the hard-won reductions in turn times. The airline is adding technology at every gate to eliminate string tags, bolstering procedures to help gate agents manage volume, and installing equipment to get bags more efficiently from the gate to the ground.
But if the last two years have proven anything, it’s that Southwest Airlines is more than capable of weathering a storm and taking flight again.
More than a comeback, Southwest’s rise to the top shows that operational excellence is built on adaptability, strategy, and commitment.
London, 18 March 2025: Brisbane Airport (BNE), which serves as the major gateway to Queensland, has partnered with aviation analytics firm, Cirium, to become one of the first airports to integrate Cirium Sky Warehouse, a data-driven cloud platform, into its modernisation efforts.
Cirium’s advanced data and analytics will be seamlessly integrated with Brisbane Airport’s business systems. This integration will support enhanced capacity planning, resource allocation, and operations analysis.
Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO, commented: “We are delighted to support Brisbane Airport’s transformative investment to revolutionise its passenger experience and meet future travel demand.
“Integrating Cirium data and analytics through the Cirium Sky Warehouse will help the airport to consolidate and accelerate digitization, leading to improved decision-making and operational performance.
” Our data will be a crucial asset in driving efficiency and elevating the traveler experience at Brisbane Airport.”
Ryan Both, Brisbane Airport Executive General Manager Aviation said: “Accessing Cirium’s schedules data through Cirium Sky Warehouse enables advanced automation, marking a critical step in Brisbane Airport’s digital transformation project.”
“The schedules data plays a critical role in creating and executing more accurate flight schedules, planning for future events and fluctuations in air traffic, gaining more comprehensive insights, and making decisions for business growth. This will lead to numerous improvements around efficiency, sustainability and passenger experience.”
“Embracing a cloud-based data integration approach also means we will significantly reduce the time spent internally on data and ultimately drive cost efficiencies.”
Brisbane Airport is currently undergoing a transformation program known as Future BNE, which includes 150 projects over a 10-year period, focusing on upgrades to the airport’s domestic and international terminals, as well as planning for a third terminal, ahead of the city hosting the 2032 Olympics.
This first phase modernization will support an improved experience for the almost 25 million passengers currently passing through its terminals and the additional 10 million expected over the coming decade.
The Cirium Sky Warehouse delivers the highest quality aviation data and analytics in one accessible data cloud, aligning seamlessly with Brisbane Airport’s digital transformation objectives. While the airport will initially leverage schedules data, a wealth of other data can be accessed and integrated from Cirium Sky Warehouse including flight, traffic, fleet, fares, weather, and CO2 emissions.
By leveraging the power of Cirium’s data cloud, Brisbane Airport joins global major airlines, fuel supply companies, aviation financiers, and more in enhancing its planning, operational efficiency and growth opportunities.
To find out more about the Cirium Sky Warehouse, click here
About Cirium Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, delivering powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. Equipping airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities, the company provides the clarity and intelligence needed to optimise operations, make informed decisions and accelerate revenue growth.
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About Brisbane Airport BNE is the third-largest airport in Australia by passenger numbers, with 24 million passengers travelling through the airport annually. BNE contributes $4.7 billion GDP annually, with 1 in 70 Queensland jobs enabled by BNE and benefits provided range of key industries such as tourism, resources and international education. BNE is the largest airport in Australia by land size, covering 2,700 hectares of land used for aviation, property development and consumer businesses, which employ over 20,000 people. In 2025 it celebrates 100 years of operation.
This achievement is particularly significant for South African aviation, positioning the country as a leader in dependable air travel within the continent. South Africa’s advanced infrastructure and strategic location have long made it a key aviation hub, connecting intra-African routes and international markets. Beyond aviation, South Africa plays a vital role in the region culturally, economically, and geographically.
As a melting pot of diverse cultures and traditions, the country serves as a symbol of unity and richness in African heritage. Economically, South Africa is one of the continent’s largest economies, driving trade, innovation, and development across borders. Geographically, its position at the southern tip of the continent makes it a natural gateway between Africa and the rest of the world. FlySafair’s success not only enhances its own reputation but also reinforces South Africa’s role as a trailblazer in raising standards and fostering growth in the region on multiple fronts.
As South Africa’s largest low-cost airline, FlySafair’s commitment to punctuality is no accident with
FlySafair ranking as the most on-time regional carrier 11 out of 12-months in 2024 by Cirium.
Through investments in data-driven practices, advanced scheduling, and fleet management, the airline has minimized delays and reduced travel disruptions for passengers. Close collaboration with ground handling teams and air traffic management has further ensured seamless operations. Despite challenges such as rising operational costs, volatile jet fuel prices, and currency pressures, FlySafair has maintained its resilience through strategic initiatives. Refining its route network, optimizing fleet efficiency, and prioritizing operational excellence have been key factors in its success.
FlySafair’s leadership in on-time performance serves as a benchmark for the MEA region, where airlines face diverse challenges, including infrastructure gaps, regulatory complexities, and geopolitical instability.
By proving that precision and reliability are achievable even in demanding conditions, FlySafair inspires higher regional standards, benefiting passengers with more dependable travel experiences.
Being ranked number one in the MEA category is not just a recognition of FlySafair’s efforts—it’s a testament to its role in advancing aviation standards across the region. This success underscores the critical link between punctuality, customer trust, and innovation, inspiring progress throughout the industry while reinforcing FlySafair’s position as a leader in reliable air travel.
Report highlights
Delta Air Lines Secures Cirium’s Platinum Award for Operational Excellence for Fourth Year Running
Aeromexico Recognized as the Most On-Time Airline in the Global Category
Regional Leaders Announced: Delta Air Lines, Copa Airlines, Iberia Express, Japan Airlines, and FlySafair Take Top Honors
Bogotá El Dorado International Airport Earns Cirium’s Inaugural Airport Platinum Award
Riyadh King Khalid International Airport Named Most On-Time Global Airport for 2024
Singapore once again recently hosted the Aviation Festival Asia event, bringing together the leaders of several airlines, providing a pulse-check of the industry and a peek into the future.
World Travel and Tourism Council president and chief executive Julia Simpson highlighted how travel continues to grow, with a focus on business travel.”[IATA director general] Willie Walsh said business travel won’t come back until 2025. It actually came back last year and broke all records,” she says. “I know you have to look at it region-by-region, but business travel is definitely back.”
Similarly, during a panel discussion on the second day of the conference, Jetstar Asia chief executive John Simeone pointed out that travel has continued to grow.
“What we saw after Covid is that people are prioritising travel. There are impacts from cost of living [issues], geopolitical tensions, but people do prioritise travel,” he says.
Consolidating Data
The strong health of the airline industry does, however, create challenges around data and decision-making across the value chain.
During a presentation at the Festival, Cirium’s vice president product, Cirium SkyAndrew Shanks talked of how analysts in the aviation industry are real-time superheroes that combine multiple data sets with expertise to make decisions.
With the application of new technologies and data science, those superheroes are being given new tools that can assist with data processing and look further forward to predict future risks and opportunities.
“As the operational side of the airlines and airports move up that analytical curve from just understanding what’s happened through predictability into prescription, we’ve got some big, big opportunities.”
Added to that, by consolidating datasets, airlines can unlock deeper insights into not only their own performance and optimisation, but benchmark and compare against competitors. He uses block-time analysis as an example.
“It’s always been the case that we can understand our own block time analysis, but how do we feed that back into the scheduling side of the business? How do we have that consolidated information that also looks at our competitors and what they are doing in this particular area? So, it is really thinking about consolidating the data.”
AI? Yes, but It Needs to Show Results
Shanks and others also touched on the application of artificial intelligence across the aviation value chain, with several exhibitors focused on applications including customer service, revenue management and managing operational disruptions.
Air India Express chief executive Aloke Singh made the eloquent point that airlines are inherently a “giant optimisation problem”, and so using AI could help to break apart data silos within airlines to drive productivity could ultimately help lower their unit costs. “There are literally hundreds of areas I can think of [to apply AI]”.
Flyadeal chief executive Steven Greenway was more circumspect, comparing a lot of the “noise” around AI to “like Blockchain was 10 years ago” with many vendors promoting promising ideas, but few real case studies.
“It’s not that we don’t believe it, I’m sure in certain applications in certain areas and so forth, absolutely,” he says. “But a lot of it’s still vapourware in terms of practicality, in my mind, to be brutally honest.”
Tariffs? A Secondary Issue to Growth
As the conference was on, outside the chatter around US tariffs was hard to block out. Inside though, few speakers seemed worried about direct impacts in Asia Pacific, at least in the short term.
“Risk is something that we always keep a look out for. At this point in time, we don’t see any impact…But generally speaking we are watchful of what’s going around. The things that are closer to home which is something that concerns us more – taxation, fuel, airport tariffs,” says Air India Express chief executive Aloke Singh.
Cebu Pacific chief executive Mike Szucs saw some risk if tariffs impact on the movement of aircraft parts, but the bigger risk is the impact the macro environment.
“If [tariffs are] going to impact on economic growth in the Philippines or this region, then we will see an impact on travel,” he says.
India, Arise
Prominent in the keynotes were the heads of two of India’s budget carriers – SpiceJet chairman and managing director Ajay Singh and Air India Express’s Aloke Singh – and both were touting the strong growth of the Indian market.
Illustrating the point, SpiceJet’s Singh says: “You know build the road and the traffic will come? In India, you put a flight on, and the traffic is on, pretty much…So for us the challenge is not so much about finding destinations as it is about getting capacity.”
“From our perspective the growth drivers are really demographics, diaspora and GDP. These are very well placed to see us growing for the next decade and beyond,” says Air India Express chief Aloke Singh.
“There is a huge outbound opportunity that we see out of India. We see a lot of growth opportunities out of non-hub airports.”
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance (ACMI) leasing has become an increasingly essential strategy for airlines to address operational challenges. Factors such as delayed new aircraft deliveries, supply chain constraints leading to parts shortages, prolonged maintenance turnaround times, and overall operational limitations continue to drive demand for ACMI solutions. Under such circumstances, we have assessed which airlines have been heavily utilizing the fleet from specialist ACMI providers.
Below are the top ten airlines with the largest passenger fleet sourced from ACMI providers in July 2024 (Northern Hemisphere Summer). Note this does not include “traditional” airlines categorized as non-ACMI providers under Cirium Fleets Analyzer (e.g. Finnair wet-leasing their A330s to Qantas, or AirBaltic wet-leasing their A220s to Lufthansa Group).
Airlines
Jul-2024
Fleet from ACMI
1
Lufthansa Group
35
E190 E1/E2, CRJ1000, A320
2
THY (Ajet)
25
A320, A321, 737 Max 8
3
TUI Group
24
A320, 737-800, 737 Max 8
4
VivaAerobus
21
A320
5
SAS
20
CRJ900
6
Indigo
16
A320
7
Air France-KLM Group
13
E190 E1, A319, A320, A330-200
8
Condor
9
A320, A321
8
Wizz
9
A320, 737-800
10
Jet2
8
A320, A321
Others
118
TOTAL
298
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer
The above list reflects a diverse mix of airlines, including full-service carriers, low-cost carriers (LCCs), regional airlines and freighter operators.
In contrast, when examining the top ten airlines in January 2025 (Northern Hemisphere Winter), we observe shifts in rankings, with some airlines increasing or decreasing their fleet from specialist ACMI providers, while others have been completely removed from the list.
Airlines
Jan-2025
vs Jul-2024
1
VivaAerobus
24
3
2
Indigo
18
2
3
Lufthansa Group
23
-12
4
SAS
15
-5
5
THY (Ajet)
13
-12
6
Condor
7
-2
7
Air Peace
6
6
7
Air France-KLM Group
6
-7
9
Saudia
4
-1
9
Air Arabia
4
1
9
El Al
4
1
9
Azerbaijan Airlines
4
1
9
PSA Airlines
4
1
Others
76
-69
–
TUI Group
2
-22
–
Jet2
0
-8
–
SunExpress
0
-7
TOTAL
204
-94
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer
It is notable that while flag carriers such as Lufthansa Group, THY (through it’s subsidiary Ajet), Air France-KLM Group and SAS sees some reductions but continue to utilize ACMI provider’s fleet in January 2025, leisure and tour operators have significantly scaled down or completely phased out these fleets. The most striking example is TUI, which returned most of its 22 aircraft that were in operation in July 2024 by January 2025 to ACMI providers. Similarly, Jet2 and SunExpress, both of which had incorporated ACMI provider’s fleet in July 2024 (with eight and seven aircraft respectively), fully discontinued their ACMI provider’s fleet utilization by January 2025. This is understandable given the larger fluctuation in peak and off-peak demand for leisure and tour operators. In contrast, Indigo has maintained (or in fact slightly increased) their fleet from ACMI providers, primarily to compensate for ongoing groundings of its owned and leased aircraft due to Pratt and Whitney’s GTF engine issues.
Operator Region
Jul-2024
Jan-2025
Jan-2025 vs Jul-2024
Europe
199
87
44%
Africa
31
23
74%
Asia Pacific
26
32
123%
Latin America
24
35
146%
Middle East
13
20
154%
North America
5
7
140%
TOTAL
298
204
68%
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer
The above chart highlights that Europe remains the largest market for ACMI provider’s fleet utilization. It is interesting to see Africa ranks as the second-largest market, despite its relatively smaller aviation sector compared to other continents. A significant portion of ACMI demand in the Asia Pacific and Latin American markets is driven by Indigo and VivaAerobus; excluding the two airlines would result in a substantial reduction in ACMI provider’s fleet usage in these regions (Turkey is categorized as part of “Europe” under Cirium Fleets Analyzer). Furthermore, European airlines have significantly reduced their ACMI provider’s fleet utilization in January 2025, whereas other regions have shown an overall increase, with the exception of Africa, which experienced a slight reduction. This may be attributed to a combination of factors, including seasonal fluctuations in air traffic (including countries in the Southern Hemisphere), and non-seasonal challenges that necessitate ACMI use, as observed in IndiGo’s case).
As mentioned above it is important to note that this assessment does not completely capture the impact of the full wet-lease demand in the market as we have not assessed wet-lease provided by “traditional” airlines. However even within this scope, we can observe the distinct variations in airline requirements and/or operational strategies regarding ACMI utilization.
London, March 4, 2025: Cirium, the most trusted source of aviation analytics, has unveiled a new innovative tool, Asset Watch, designed to transform how aviation stakeholders monitor, manage, and optimize their portfolios.
With Asset Watch, users can configure aircraft portfolios and receive real-time updates on their flight and ground activity. The tool integrates aircraft utilization trends, CO₂ emissions benchmarking, maintenance events and flights, ensuring a holistic understanding of asset operations and risk.
The tool offers different benefits to a variety of key stakeholders, including:
Lessors: Gain precise insights into fleet performance and operator compliance, enabling smarter lease negotiations and asset placement strategies.
Banks: Monitor aviation investments with transparency, assessing asset utilization and condition for informed decision-making.
Insurers: Access real-time data on aircraft cycles, locations, and routes, streamlining underwriting processes and risk evaluations.
Aftermarket Service Providers: Anticipate maintenance demand and trends using detailed aircraft utilization metrics.
Airlines: Benchmark fleet performance against competitors and align with sustainability goals through advanced CO₂ emission analytics.
Jeremy Bowen, CEO of Cirium, said “Asset Watch represents a significant leap forward in aviation asset management. By providing stakeholders with actionable insights and a real-time pulse on their investments, we’re not only empowering better decision-making but also driving the industry towards greater transparency and efficiency,”
The tool is designed to offer quick insights, enabling aviation finance professionals to safeguard investments, meet regulatory requirements, and optimize their strategic planning processes. It makes workflows more efficient and offers unparalleled accuracy and actionable intelligence.
This announcement launching the new Asset Watch tool underscores Cirium’s commitment to delivering solutions that address the dynamic needs of the aviation sector while advancing sustainability and operational efficiency in the industry.
Find out more about Cirium’s Asset Watch and access a demonstration video of the tool.
At the centre of this aviation evolution is the United Arab Emirates, home to some of the world’s most prestigious airlines and airports. Leading the charge is Emirates Airline, a $29 billion enterprise with a fleet of over 250 aircraft connecting more than 140 destinations worldwide. Emirates has set the standard for passenger experience through cutting-edge technology, from in-flight entertainment to biometric security systems.
But Emirates is not alone. Saudia and Oman Air have also made remarkable strides in operational performance and service excellence. Saudia secured second place in Cirium’s Global Airline On-Time Performance (OTP) ranking for 2024, while Oman Air ranked second in the Middle East and Africa’s top 10 airlines.
Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport (RUH) also emerged as a leader, winning both the Global and Large Airport categories with an impressive on-time departure rate of 86.65% across nearly 241,000 flights in 2024 and 115 routes.
These airlines and airports have recognized the importance of adapting to changing customer needs and embracing sustainable practices to ensure long-term success. To that end, minimizing cancelled flights and delays is something everyone can agree is a positive step – in what has been a challenging year for aviation overall.
Cirium’s Middle East and Africa OTP Regional Update
In 2024, the top 10 on-time Middle East and Africa airlines operated 20% more flights compared to the top performers of 2023—a collective total of nearly 984,500 flights in 2024.
This surge in flights evidences the significant growth in the Middle East, alongside the passenger volumes in Saudia Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
In addition to the growth in flights, the Middle East and Africa airlines operated more efficiently, with the top performers achieving a collective on-time arrival of 83.08% in 2024 compared to 82.44% in 2023. The regions 2024 on-time arrival surpassed the on-time arrivals of the European, North American, Latin American and Asia-Pacific airlines.
These developments underscore the Middle East’s significant role in the global aviation industry, driven by strategic investments, economic diversification efforts and a robust recovery in travel demand.
The Middle East and Africa region saw some shifts in rankings and performance of the individual airlines in 2024, with notable improvements from airlines like Saudia and Kuwait Airways, while others like Etihad Airways and Emirates experienced slight declines. Saudia climbed from sixth place in 2023 to fourth place this year, with an OTP of 86.35%. With a remarkable 11-point increase over last year’s performance, Kuwait Airways moved from ninth place to fifth, with an OTP of 84.63%. Royal Jordanian remained in third place with a consistent on-time arrival of 87.05% in 2024. Meanwhile, Etihad Airways experienced a slight decline in OTP, dropping to eight place, with an OTP of 82.90% in 2023 to 76.91% this year. and Emirates experienced a decrease from 78.48% to 74.42%, moving to ninth place.
International airports in the Middle East showed huge improvement in their performance this year, Riyadh King Khalid International Airport (RJH) secured the top spot in the Global and Large airports categories, entering the top 20 ranking in 2024. Abu Dhabi Zayed International Airport (AUH) improved its ranking in 2024 with an on-time departure rate of 80.32%, up from 81.03% in 2023, also entering the top 20 Global airports.
Innovation Hubs Enable Collaboration
One of the most exciting developments in the region’s aviation industry is the emergence of innovation hubs like Emirate’s Ebdaa in Dubai. Ebdaa serves as a catalyst for creativity, collaboration, and sustainable energy. This state-of-the-art facility brings together the brightest minds from universities, technology suppliers, and startups to drive the development of cutting-edge solutions. From hydrogen-powered aircraft prototypes to advanced air traffic management systems, the groundbreaking projects emerging from Ebdaa are testament to the region’s commitment to shaping the future of aviation.
But innovation is not limited to the development of new technologies. The Middle East’s aviation industry is also pioneering new approaches to training and passenger experience.
Emirates, for example, has also embraced extended reality and immersive experiences to enhance the onboarding and training of its aircrew and employees. By providing realistic simulations of the working environment, these technologies are reducing training times and ensuring a smoother transition for new hires.
Similarly, Dubai International Airport, one of the world’s busiest, is leading the charge with its plans for a fully touchless, walk-through experience. Passengers will enjoy seamless check-in, security clearance, and boarding processes, thanks to advanced biometric technology. This initiative not only reduces wait times and enhances safety but also provides a more hygienic and convenient travel experience in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar advancements are being implemented across the region, revolutionizing the way passengers navigate airports and interact with airline staff.
However, the rapid growth and innovation in the Middle East’s aviation industry are not without challenges. The region faces a shortage of skilled labour, with estimates suggesting that the UAE alone will require around 22,000 pilots and crew members by 2033. To address this issue, countries in the region are investing in training and development programs, partnering with educational institutions to nurture the next generation of aviation professionals.
Another challenge is the need for sustainable practices in the face of climate change. While the Middle East’s airlines and airports have made significant strides in reducing their carbon footprint, there is still much work to be done. The adoption of sustainable aviation fuels, the development of more fuel-efficient aircraft, and the implementation of eco-friendly ground operations are all critical steps in ensuring the industry’s long-term sustainability. To this end airlines and airports across the region are investing heavily in eco-friendly initiatives, such as the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels, the development of fuel-efficient aircraft, and the implementation of green ground operations.
Etihad Airways, for example, has pledged to reduce its carbon emissions by 50% by 2035 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
These efforts are not limited to operational benefit but are also vital for securing the financial backing for the industry with many deals coming with “green strings attached”. Cirium has also invested heavily in this area and recently secured accreditation for EmeraldSky from the Rocky Mountain Institute for the first climate-aligned finance framework tailored for the aviation industry.
Despite these challenges, the mood in the Middle East’s aviation industry is one of optimism and determination.
The region’s leaders recognize the immense potential of the sector and are committed to investing in its future. From the ambitious plans of Saudi Arabia to the strategic partnerships being forged across the region, there is a sense of unity and purpose in driving the industry forward.
In the coming years, we can expect to see even more groundbreaking advancements emerging from the region. From the development of hydrogen-powered aircraft to the implementation of seamless, touchless travel experiences, the Middle East’s aviation industry is pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. As these innovations take flight, they will not only transform the way we travel but also inspire a new generation of entrepreneurs and innovators. The Middle East’s aviation success story is a testament to the power of vision, collaboration, and innovation. As the region continues to invest in its people, its infrastructure, and its technologies, it is laying the foundation for a brighter, more sustainable future. With its eyes fixed firmly on the horizon, the Middle East is ready to take the global aviation industry to new heights, one innovation at a time.
Panama City, Panama – Copa Airlines has cemented its place as Latin America’s undisputed leader in On-Time performance, achieving an unprecedented tenth year at the top. The airline celebrated this remarkable milestone on Friday, February 14th, 2025 at a special ceremony held at their Panama City Headquarters, Hangar 2, where they received the prestigious 2024 On-Time Performance Award from Cirium, the global leader in aviation analytics.
Presenting the award and leading the Cirum team was Jeremy Bowen, Chief Executive Officer of Cirium. Other members of the Cirium team included, Mike Malik, Chief Marketing Officer, Lydia Webb, Marketing Director – Americas & Strategic Programs and Daniela Arrebola, Business Development Manager. Accepting the award on behalf of Copa Airlines were Pedro Heilbron, Chief Executive Officer and three employees, representing different organizations within Copa, directly impacting on-time performance.
“Once again, Copa Airlines sets the standard for On-Time Performaance, securing its 10th award as the most on-time airline in Latin America. Achieving this level of consistency in an industry where so much is beyond our control is no small feat—it speaks to a well-run airline where every team member plays a role in delivering reliability day in and day out. Cirium is proud to recognize Copa’s achievement, and we extend our congratulations to everyone at Copa Airlines for their dedication and teamwork in making this possible”
Jeremy Bowen, CEO, Cirium
This decade of dominance underscores Copa’s unwavering commitment to operational excellence and passenger satisfaction. With an impressive on-time performance rate of 88.22% for 2024, Copa’s 125,445 flights saw a remarkable 98.73% completion rate. This achievement is particularly noteworthy in a year of high operational performance across Latin America, where airlines and airports ranked among the top performers globally. Copa consistently maintained high OTP scores throughout the year, even achieving top global rankings in February (91.66%) and May (90.24%).
“In a year of high operational performance in the Latin American region, Copa Airlines has once again soared to the top with an impressive on-time performance rate of 88.22% for 2024. Copa Airlines can now boast of a decade of continuous leadership and excellence in On-Time Performance in the region.”
Lydia Webb, Marketing Director – Americas & Strategic Programs, Cirium
This milestone reflects Copa Airlines’ commitment to providing a seamless and reliable travel experience. Their focus on operational efficiency, coupled with a dedicated team and strategic hub location, has solidified their position as the leading airline in Latin America for on-time performance. Copa’s contribution extends beyond aviation, connecting Panama, a country rich in cultural heritage and economic significance to the world.
Congratulations to the entire Copa Airlines team on this well-deserved recognition!
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Thomas Kaplan, Senior Valuations Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
The decade of the 2010s saw tremendous growth of the leased fleet size (~88% in total), but also the entrance of many new operating lessors, leading to fragmentation of the fleet. In 2010, two lessors, GECAS and ILFC accounted for nearly 40% of the leased fleet. By the end of the decade, eight lessors would share the 40%. The number of managers classified as operating lessors with at least one aircraft in service or stored increased from 143 to 186. 90% of the leased fleet went from being shared amongst 41 lessors to 63.
The pandemic put the brakes on lessor trading as aircraft values fell and later rising interest rates increased lessor cost of capital. With defaulting lessees and geopolitical shifts, the trend reversed towards more consolidation, at least on the level of the largest lessors. The chart below tracks consolidation of the lessor fleet. The difference between the green and black line shows the fragmentation and growth trend of the 2010’s. The red line, representing today’s fleet, is above the black line but the shift is mostly noticeable for the largest lessors. The largest consolidation that can be spotted from the chart intercepting the y-axis is AerCap’s 2021 acquisition of GECAS. However, for half a decade of trend, consolidation has not moved very quickly, particularly compared to the speed of change observed in the previous decade.
Lessor Fleet Distribution Over Time
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, Narrowbody and Widebody Jets, Commercial usage, excluding unconfirmed lessors. Note: Avolonacquisition of Castlelake portfolio accounted for in February 2025 data.
The yellow line, which is barely visible due to its overlap with today’s fleet, represents the picture at the very start of 2024. The past 13 months had a large “consolidation” event in the Avolon acquisition of a 106 aircraft portfolio from Castlelake. While it is significant in rearranging the size rankings of the two lessors in question, it does not do much to change the landscape. DAE Capital’s planned acquisition of Nordic Aviation Capital is a very significant consolidation event, but mostly involving regional aircraft so does not affect this analysis which focuses on narrowbody and widebody jets.
New entrant activity continued at a slow pace to dampen the consolidation trend. IAT Leasing took out an advertisement at Dublin Airport to catch the eye of those flying in to attend the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers conference in January 2025. They now have nine aircraft on lease including three A330-200s. Notable new entrants from earlier in the decade which have managed to grow beyond a 40 aircraft portfolio include AviLease, SKY Leasing, Griffin Global Asset Management and Vmo Aircraft Leasing. Gaining scale has been challenging, however, with only Avilease breaching the 100-jet mark following its 2023 acquisition of Standard Chartered’s aircraft leasing business.
Lessor fleet distribution change since 2024 has been minimal:
Will the consolidation trend pick up again in 2025? Cirium reported in an interview that Stratos chief Gary Fitzgerald, who contributed to the consolidation trend in 2023 with the acquisition of Magi Partners, believes the industry would benefit from consolidation as some leasing platforms have underperformed. Carlyle Aviation Partners’ Robert Korn also suggested that the recent strength of the US dollar should make for a good exit opportunity for some lessors. Carlyle was a driver of consolidation as well with its 2021 ACMK acquisition. Economies of scale do exist for aircraft leasing to a certain extent, which should favour some consolidation. Perhaps the lessors with the lowest cost of funding will take the opportunity to grow their scale – if they find a lessor willing to sell. While there are good reasons for consolidation to occur, it remains to be seen if conditions will finally warm to allow it.
