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  • What’s at stake for commercial aviation amid the Middle East conflict

    Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

    Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

    Team Perspective

    George Dimitroff, Head of Valuations, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

    As the world tries to grasp the consequences of the escalating conflict in Iran and the wider Middle East, the following sets out Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s early thoughts.

    The conflict affects aviation in three ways:

    1. Airspace closures
    2. Rising fuel prices
    3. Potential for softer demand – both in the region and globally

    Airspace closures

    • These are already affecting the big three Gulf carriers severely (Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways) but there is risk they may extend to others such as Oman Air, Saudia or beyond
    • 20% of all passengers travelling between Europe and Asia-Pacific (incl. Australasia) in 2025 travelled on Middle Eastern carriers – that is 1 in 5 passengers
    • 10% of all US passengers travelling to Asia-Pacific go through the Middle East hubs.
    • Direct flights from Europe to Asia are also affected because they are now limited to just one narrow corridor over Georgia and Azerbaijan, or a longer southern route around Saudi Arabia which adds flight time and fuel burn
    • If Azerbaijan airspace were to close it would put even greater pressure on long-haul flights between Europe and Asia-Pacific, except for those airlines that can overfly Russian airspace (Chinese and Indian carriers, for example)
    • A significant portion of passenger traffic that passes through ME hubs may now decide to avoid the risk of connecting there and book direct flights to their destinations. This could have a positive uplift for European and Asian carriers and could increase demand for long range widebody aircraft especially Airbus A350s, and Boeing 777s and 787s. However, such upside may not materialise if European and Asian economies suffer as a result of higher energy costs and overall demand for travel is affected

    Rising fuel prices

    • The price of a barrel of oil spiked from $60 in January to already exceed $100 – a more than 50% increase
    • While peace negotiations could lead to Brent crude oil prices easing modestly in April, energy information provider ICIS anticipates a “gradually declining but persistent risk premium to remain embedded in prices for the remainder of the year, reflecting continued uncertainty around regional stability”
    • Crack spreads are increasing, meaning Jet A1 fuel is affected even more
    • US airlines are completely unhedged when it comes to fuel price. Southwest Airlines was one of the last to abandon its hedging programme a year ago (March 2025)
    • European and Asian airlines are much better hedged – many have between 45% and 85% of their needs for at least H1 2026 hedged at around $60/bbl or less, some even until the end of the year:
      • Hedged airlines include (but not limited to) Air France-KLM, Air New Zealand, Cathay Pacific, China Eastern, EasyJet, Finnair, Icelandair, Lufthansa, Norwegian, Qantas, Ryanair, Singapore Airlines, Virgin Australia and Wizz Air
      • Hedged airlines will be much less exposed to fuel price increases, while US carriers likely to be impacted harder
      • Some carriers hedge against crude, others Jet A – crude hedges still leave partial exposure to crack spread
    • Cirium analysis and modelling shows that the global airline industry stops making profit (i.e. breaks even) somewhere between $72 and $76 per barrel (sustained, longer term), depending on assumptions. Above that fuel price the industry starts to make losses
    • With higher fuel prices there are two implications to demand for aircraft
      • A greater push for newer-generation, more fuel-efficient aircraft
      • Increased reluctance for airlines to extend leases for previous-generation aircraft or to retain owned aircraft in service for longer
      • In some cases, the increased fuel costs may pressure airlines to offer less in lease rental especially for out-of-production aircraft

    Potential for softer demand

    • There is currently a serious risk of Asian, and to a lesser extent European economies, being affected by both higher energy costs and possibly fuel shortages if the Strait of Hormuz remains de facto closed for longer, and stockpiles run dry
    • For the past few years, we have considered many scenarios that are focussed on aircraft supply increasing to meet demand. For the first time in a while, we must consider the risk of a drop in demand as something increasingly plausible, potentially occurring sooner than expected. This could be especially critical as the manufacturers are making their biggest ramp-up in production over the next three years or so
    • If the conflict extends beyond the next month or two, the risk of an impact on air-travel demand becomes exponentially greater, and could firstly start to impact aircraft lease rates, and eventually aircraft values with previous-generation, out-of-production types being more vulnerable
    • Airlines operating older, less-fuel efficient widebodies on long-haul services would be worst affected, unless they are hedged at low levels

  • Aviation in 2026: A stable climb or turbulence ahead?

    Aviation enters 2026 with momentum, experiencing resilient demand, persistent supply‑side constraints and an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic environment.

    In The 2026 Aviation Market Outlook broadcast live on 4th February 2026, Stephen Burnside, Richard Evans and Daniel Hall explored the key factors shaping the sector to unpack what this means for airlines, lessors and the wider industry.

    Mixed macro signals leave less room for error

    From a macroeconomic perspective, the headline indicators point to an environment that supports air travel demand. Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) remain high, key economies are growing, and productivity metrics are rising sharply – all good news for the aviation industry. As Stephen Burnside noted, “PMIs are doing great… if it’s above 50%, we’re expanding,”

    However, consumer sentiment is weakening, and external shocks threaten to create abrupt economic corrections. “The US is central to our 2026 outlook… we like to keep a very close eye on the US because it does really drive the entire world economy” Stephen explained, adding that the impact of a US policy error impacting trade and undermining economic growth was the “number one risk for our outlook for 2026”. While aviation enters 2026 with momentum, the industry has less margin for error. With debt‑to‑GDP ratios elevated and geopolitical tensions unresolved, any shock could have a faster and more pronounced impact than in previous cycles.

    Demand and capacity appear balanced – regional divergence tells a different story

    After years of disruption and recovery, 2025 marked a return to more conventional aviation market dynamics. Globally, demand and capacity were closely aligned, with only marginal changes in load factors. “If you just stood above, if you didn’t know anything else, you’d say well demand and supply look fairly in balance,” observed Richard Evans, highlighting how far the industry has come since 2019.

    That balance, however, hides a widening gap between regions, markets and segments. Forward schedules show continued growth into 2026, but at a more measured pace, and with clear divergence by geography. Asia‑Pacific, the Middle East and Africa continue to see demand outpacing supply, while North America and Latin America experienced load factor declines earlier in the year.

    This unevenness is set to persist in 2026. International capacity is growing far faster than domestic, while some major markets are barely expanding at all. Airline performance will depend on “whether the market is growing strongly or not, but within that what the balance of competition is and the opportunities for yield expansion on the international side.”

    Aircraft and engine values stay elevated with widebodies scarce

    Tight supply conditions continued to support aircraft and engine values through 2025, with diverging dynamics between segments. After years of suppressed production, widebody availability is now extremely tight as international demand has fully recovered.

    By contrast, the single‑aisle market has moved into a more stable phase, with market values rising only modestly over the past year and lease rates largely unchanged, reflecting improving production visibility and a highly competitive lessor landscape despite ongoing engine‑related constraints.

    In the widebody market, Daniel Hall pointed to twelve months of growing market values, and lease rates rising by more than 14% on average last year. “If you speak to a lessor today and try and get your hands on a widebody under 15 or 20 years of age, I believe there are none available today.” This is pushing airlines to invest heavily in twin-aisle cabin refurbishments and sustaining pricing power for lessors and owners. While production rates are improving, they are not picking up fast enough to rebalance supply and demand in the next twelve months. “We expect similar this year, but maybe at a smaller magnitude; we have to look at the bigger picture” pointing to another year of lease rate growth.

    Watch the webinar on-demand

    To access the full presentation, including analysis of the impact of the GTF engine issues on single‑aisle capacity, fleet availability and lease‑rate dynamics, register to watch the webinar.

  • What Makes Guayaquil’s Olmedo Airport an Operational Leader?

    Isaac Pato, Senior Data Analyst, Cirium

    With an impressive on-time departure rate of 91.47% across 34,068 tracked flights, GYE demonstrated exceptional consistency while serving 19 routes. This achievement underscores the airport’s ability to deliver world-class performance in a category defined by airports handling between 5 million and 15 million seats annually.

    The qualification criteria for this award emphasize comprehensive flight operations and reliability, ensuring recognition for airports that balance regional connectivity with global service standards. GYE’s success is particularly notable given the operational challenges of 2025, including scheduled runway maintenance closures in September that required temporary suspension of all flight operations. These proactive infrastructure upgrades highlight the airport’s commitment to long-term safety and efficiency, even as it maintained industry-leading punctuality throughout the year.

    Small airports often face unique constraints, managing diverse route networks while maintaining reliability.

    GYE’s achievement reflects strategic coordination among airlines, ground handlers, and air traffic control, enabling seamless travel experiences despite seasonal disruptions.

    Its performance outpaced strong contenders such as El Salvador International Airport (SAL), which posted an on-time departure rate of 90.28% across 47,203 flights and 34 routes, and Rio de Janeiro’s Santos Dumont Airport (SDU), which achieved 89.67% punctuality with 58,303 flights and 7 routes. These results highlight the growing emphasis on reliability in Latin America, a region where operational resilience is increasingly critical.

    Beyond Latin America, airports like Stavanger (SVG) and Cape Town (CPT) also demonstrated competitive performance, signaling a global trend toward process optimization and technology-driven efficiency. For travelers and airlines alike, this translates into fewer delays, improved connectivity, and enhanced confidence in regional gateways. The top five airports in this category collectively illustrate how smaller hubs are leveraging innovation and disciplined operations to deliver world-class punctuality.

    Looking ahead, Guayaquil’s leadership in this category illustrates how smaller hubs can achieve excellence through strategic investment and operational rigor. As the aviation industry continues to navigate evolving challenges,

    GYE stands as a model of success, proving that size does not limit the ability to deliver superior performance.

  • FlySafair Leads Middle East & Africa Region in 2025

    Jonathan Robins, Aviation Reporter, Cirium

    Running an airline anywhere is a tricky undertaking, but doing so in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) brings its own unique challenges. Hot and harsh conditions result in vast maintenance requirements for engines and equipment. Aircraft often spend far longer on the ground than in more temperate regions. Then, this year at least, there has been vast geopolitical disruption. Meanwhile competition is fierce. But there are advantages too. The Middle East’s position at the centre of the world makes it an ideal transfer location for the Gulf carriers, who funnel vast numbers of people around the globe, particularly between Europe and Asia. Their stellar earnings since the pandemic are a testament to the success of this strategy. 

    Alongside this, the region is seeing an explosion in air travel demand to, from, and within it. The domestic Saudi Arabian route from Jeddah to Riyadh, for example, is set to become the busiest air corridor in the world by the end of the decade, industry insiders believe, and perhaps well before that. 

    IATA, notably, says that at $29, profit per passenger will be higher in the Middle East next year than anywhere else. That compares with just $7.90 globally. 

    Aviation in Africa lacks the scale of its Middle Eastern rivals. The continent’s airlines lament the extra costs of doing business which includes higher prices for leases, MRO, fuel and insurance. Then there are the wild swings of local currencies, stranded earnings, and problems in retaining skilled staff – many of whom are wooed by the deep pockets of the Gulf. Yet, as the rankings show, there are successes here too, underpinned by an emerging middle class that is seeing Africans fly at scale for the first time. 

    Topping this year’s OTP rankings is South Africa’s Safair. 

    Following closely are Aeromexico, Gol, Azul, and LATAM Airlines, reinforcing the region’s reputation for reliability and efficiency. 

    Long a leader in performance, Safair has developed a reputation for precise scheduling and rapid 30-minute turnarounds as befit its low-cost business model, with a heavy use of real-time data. Alongside this, built-in contingency planning enables them to bounce-back rapidly when disruption does occur. 

    It notes that its performance has been underpinned by “strategic investments” in advanced scheduling, as well as “data-driven decision-making, and fleet management practices.” 

    Meanwhile the use of a single aircraft type – the Boeing 737 – has helped to keep maintenance costs down and reduce complexity, enabling flexibility between crews and bolstering utilisation rates. This all filters through to its reliability.   

    Safair has also embedded OTP into its corporate culture, linking employee incentives to their achievements and making it a key performance indicator, meaning that all staff are focussed on getting flights out on time.  

    Close behind is Royal Jordanian. The carrier is undergoing a strategic shift towards inbound tourism and becoming the main player in the Levant region. “That’s obviously a market which we want to dominate in the future,” commercial chief Karim Makhlouf said in November.   

    It plans a fleet expansion from around 23 aircraft currently to 41 by 2028, amid a longer-term goal of 52 by 2032. Passenger numbers are targeted to grow from 3 million to 7.1 million by 2028.  

    Makhlouf added that amid a growth spurt and restructuring it is “super difficult” to make money, but that it had recently reported a nine-month sustainable profit of around $43 million, “which for an airline like Royal Jordanian is quite a significant achievement.” 

  • Latin America: A Rising Star in Global Aviation

    Luis Felipe de Oliveira, Executive Director and CEO, Exactly Consulting and Services SARL

    Beyond growth, Latin America is setting benchmarks in operational excellence. Aeromexico stands out globally, achieving the best On-Time Performance (OTP) among the Global Airline Category, a remarkable feat given its operations from the highly congested Mexico City International Airport. This achievement highlights resilience and world-class standards in a challenging environment. 

    Regionally, Copa Airlines continues to lead OTP rankings, building on its stellar 2024 performance. 

    Following closely are Aeromexico, Gol, Azul, and LATAM Airlines, reinforcing the region’s reputation for reliability and efficiency. 

    Airports mirror this success, demonstrating the strong correlation between airline and airport punctuality. Santiago Arturo Merino Benitez International Airport leads all Large Airports globally, while two other Latin American airports feature in the top 10 of this category. The Medium-sized Airport Category shines even brighter: Tocumen International Airport in Panama claims the top spot worldwide, with five regional airports among the global top 10. In the Small Airport category, Guayaquil Airport leads globally, supported by four Latin American airports in the top ten. 

    Congratulations to the winners. 

    These results are more than operational metrics, they are a testament to the region’s commitment to excellence and its role in driving social and economic development. With robust growth, outstanding efficiency, and unparalleled OTP achievements, Latin America is not just keeping pace with global aviation, it is setting new standards.

    The region’s vast and diverse landscape offers immense opportunities, and its aviation sector is poised to be a cornerstone of connectivity and progress for years to come.  

  • On-Time Performance as an Emissions Indicator

    Mike Malik, Chief Industry Officer, Cirium

    What the Research Actually Shows 

    Our team at Cirium spent months analyzing this relationship across three distance bands: short-haul routes under 1,500 kilometers, medium-haul between 1,500-3,999 kilometers, and long-haul over 4,000 kilometers. We compared July 2019 operations with July 2024. The Cirium EmeraldSky platform let us track 47 operational variables across more than 100,000 daily flights. Everything from gate times and runway waits to specific aircraft configurations and passenger loads. 

    The correlation was consistent where operational changes occurred.

    Routes with improved on-time performance showed measurable drops in flight times and emissions. 

    Routes with declining OTP showed the opposite: longer flights and higher emissions. The pattern held across different airlines and aircraft types. 

    Most emissions calculators rely on simple distance formulas. We’re tracking actual operational data. The factors that determine real fuel consumption. PwC independently verified the methodology to ISAE 3000 standards, which puts it among the most rigorous publicly available datasets on airline emissions. 

    Why Delays Create More Emissions 

    The mechanism is straightforward but often overlooked. Delayed aircraft burn fuel while accomplishing nothing productive. They sit on taxiways with engines running, waiting for clearance. They circle in holding patterns before landing. They take longer routes to dodge congestion. 

    Researchers Brueckner and Abreu quantified this over a 21-year study of 16 US airlines.

    Each percentage point increase in flights delayed more than 15 minutes correlated with a 0.3% jump in fuel consumption and emissions.

    In practice, an airline cutting its delay rate from 22% to 19% (just three percentage points) reduces fuel consumption by roughly 1%. The airlines in that study burned 13.7 billion gallons of jet fuel in 2015. At standard carbon pricing, a three-point improvement delivered $48 million in annual environmental benefits. It’s measurable impact from better operations. 

    Ground Operations Tell the Story 

    Much of the emissions penalty happens before takeoff. European air traffic management analysis (2015-2017) found that routing inefficiencies make flight paths 0.61-0.76% longer than optimal. That translated to 229,000 extra tonnes of fuel and 721,000 additional tonnes of CO₂. The equivalent of four full days of flying across the European Economic Area. 

    At London Heathrow during peak hours, about half the arriving aircraft enter holding patterns averaging six minutes each. During one January 2015 peak hour, those holding patterns alone produced 10 tonnes of CO₂ and 114 kilograms of nitrogen oxides. 

    The 20 most congested US airports generate 6 million metric tonnes of CO₂ annually just from aircraft taxiing. Research shows that eliminating taxi delays could cut overall flight fuel consumption by 1% on average, with some congested airports showing potential reductions up to 2%. 

    Solutions That Already Work 

    Continuous Descent Operations let aircraft descend smoothly with minimal engine thrust instead of the traditional step-down approach with level flight segments. 

    This saves an average of 51 kilograms of fuel per flight, with real-world operations achieving 3.6% fuel burn improvements.

    Full deployment across Europe could deliver 350,000 tonnes in annual fuel savings. 

    Airport Collaborative Decision-Making systems create transparent communication between airlines, ground handlers, and air traffic control. When 17 European airports put these platforms in place in 2016, they saw 7% reductions in taxi time, 10.3% drops in air traffic delays, and 102,700 tonnes of CO₂ saved. 

    The Gap Between Airlines 

    The airline industry improved its carbon output per passenger by 12% between 2013 and 2019. 

    Roughly 2% per year. The variation between carriers tells an interesting story. Our 2024 Flight Emissions Review shows low-cost carriers like Wizz Air (53.9 grams CO₂ per available seat-kilometer) and Frontier (54.4 g CO₂/ASK) substantially outperforming legacy carriers. 

    How they run their operations explains much of this gap. Low-cost carriers typically maintain higher load factors, operate uniform fleets, fly point-to-point networks, and refine procedures more rigorously. These same factors support both on-time performance and efficiency. 

    Why the 3% Matters Right Now 

    Getting aviation to net-zero by 2050 depends heavily on sustainable aviation fuels (65% of the solution) and new propulsion technologies (13%). Operational improvements? Just 3% of the long-term plan. 

    Sustainable fuel production won’t reach meaningful scale until the 2030s. Hydrogen and electric aircraft remain years away from commercial deployment. That makes the 3% from operational improvements the only immediate option for emissions reduction. 

    Better operations are the immediate option for emissions reduction. 

    No new technology required, just better execution of existing procedures. 

    When an airline publishes its on-time performance statistics, it’s revealing more than customer service quality. Those numbers provide a window into how well the airline runs, and that directly affects environmental impact. The data proves the connection. Better on-time performance means lower emissions per passenger. It’s something airlines can improve right now. 

    Report highlights

    If you haven’t read the complete 2024 EmeraldSky Flight Emissions Review, you can download it at the link below. We’re releasing the 2025 edition in early 2026. If you’d like early access when it’s available, scan the QR code below to register your interest and we’ll send it your way. 

    DOWNLOAD 2024 FLIGHT EMISSIONS REVIEW
    REGISTER FOR 2025 EARLY ACCESS

    Sources 

    Cirium EmeraldSky Study (2024): Short-haul route analysis comparing July 2019 to July 2024 operations, tracking 47 operational variables across 100,000+ daily flights. Methodology independently verified to ISAE 3000 standard by PricewaterhouseCoopers. 

    Brueckner, J.K., and Abreu, C. “Airline Fuel Usage and Carbon Emissions: Determining Factors.” Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 62 (2017), pp. 10-17. Study of 16 US airlines over 1995-2015 period. 

    EUROCONTROL Performance Review Reports (2015-2017): European air traffic management inefficiency analysis, horizontal flight efficiency data, and holding pattern emissions studies. 

    EUROCONTROL A-CDM Impact Assessment (2016): Analysis of 17 European airports implementing Airport Collaborative Decision Making systems. Study developed by Atlas Chase for EUROCONTROL. 

    Cirium Flight Emissions Review (2024): Global airline emissions rankings using flight-specific operational data. Published July 2025. 

    IATA Global Aviation Data (2013-2019): Historical carbon intensity trends for commercial aviation. 

    Air Transport Action Group (ATAG): Waypoint 2050 (2nd Edition, September 2021). Aviation industry net-zero pathway analysis and decarbonization scenarios. 

  • Tocumen Leads 2025 Medium Airport Rankings

    Jay Morgan, Director, Professional Data Services, Cirium

    Defining the Medium Airport Category 

    Medium airports, as classified in the Cirium OTP program, serve between 15 and 25 million seats per year and must meet stringent data coverage requirements. Only airports with at least 80% actual gate departure coverage and full award qualification are considered for the rankings, ensuring a level playing field and reliable benchmarking. 

    PTY’s Standout Performance 

    In 2025, PTY secured the number one spot in the medium airport category, achieving an impressive [93.34%] on-time departure rate. This figure is supported by a remarkable 99.49% tracked flight coverage, underscoring the reliability of the data and the airport’s operational discipline. PTY’s “B0%” metric—representing the share of departures with zero recorded delay—stood at 68.57%, further highlighting its commitment to punctuality. 

    The airport’s scale and connectivity are also notable. PTY served 95 routes across four regions, with 19 airlines operating a total of 148,065 flights during the period. Its total seat count for the year reached 24.46 million, placing it firmly within the medium airport band while maintaining broad international reach. 

    Context Among Peers 

    PTY’s closest competitors in the medium airport category included Brasília International Airport (BSB) and Johannesburg O.R. Tambo International Airport (JNB), with on-time departure rates of 88.36% and 86.22%, respectively. While these airports demonstrated strong performance, PTY’s margin of excellence was clear, driven by both high punctuality and comprehensive operational coverage. 

    Key Takeaways 

    The recognition of PTY’s outstanding performance, underscored by a 93.34% on-time departure rate, demonstrates the tangible benefits of operational discipline and strategic investment in reliable infrastructure. 

    Such consistent punctuality is not achieved by chance, but through a concerted effort across multiple facets of airport management—ranging from proactive maintenance and real-time resource allocation to close collaboration with airline partners and ground service providers. 

    Leveraging advanced analytics and comprehensive data coverage, PTY has been able to identify trends, anticipate operational bottlenecks, and implement timely interventions that prevent minor disruptions from escalating into significant delays. This data-driven approach fosters a culture of continuous improvement, where every success is examined for scalability and every setback becomes a lesson for future resilience. 

    Looking ahead, airports striving for similar results can draw on PTY’s example, recognizing that the pathway to excellence lies in combining technological innovation with human expertise. As global air travel continues its post-pandemic recovery and new challenges such as sustainability, passenger expectations, and fluctuating demand emerge, the ability to reliably deliver high standards of punctuality and service will become even more critical. By embracing best practices in data management, operational transparency, and stakeholder engagement, other airports can position themselves to not only match but surpass established benchmarks, ultimately enhancing the travel experience for millions of passengers worldwide. In this evolving landscape, PTY’s achievement stands as a testament to what is possible when vision, discipline, and adaptability come together in pursuit of operational excellence.  

  • Asia’s Carriers Take Turbulence Head‑On

    Ellis Taylor, Asia Editor, Cirium

    This year’s rankings have been dominated by full-service carriers, many of which have correlated strong on-time performance with robust financial performances, even as passenger yields broadly have stepped back from their post-pandemic highs. 

    Philippine Airlines has put in a strong showing to be the top performing carrier in 2025, with an impressive 83.12% of its flights arriving on-time across the year. That is impressive given its home base of Manila Ninoy Aquino International airport is prone to congestion. 

    It has been a significant year for the carrier, which has seen a transition of president and chief operating officers. Richard Nuttall was appointed president of the airline in late May, aided by Carlos Luis Fernandez as vice president and chief operating officer. 

    Just behind PAL, Air New Zealand delivered a significant improvement despite grappling with engine issues that have at times grounded up to six aircraft across its Airbus A320neo family and Boeing 787 fleets. It appears to have proactively managed those issues by adjusting its schedule, and keeping overall capacity flat, while also bringing in wet-leased capacity towards the end of the year. 

    Across the Tasman Sea, Virgin Australia re-enters the top 10 this year, just edging ahead of rival Qantas. Both carriers appear to have benefitted from adding new aircraft that has limited capacity growth but built in greater network resilience. In the case of Qantas, it has been growing back its international capacity as the last of its Airbus A380s re-entered service, while it, too, tapped wet-leased aircraft from Finnair. 

    IndiGo had a strong showing for most of the year, delivering 80% and higher on-time performance rates between June and October before falling back in November and December. That was largely driven by a change in flight crew duty regulations in early December which led to large scale delays and cancellations over successive days, forcing it at one point to cancel all flights from Delhi to reset its operations. That effort proved successful, though, and it quickly scaled its operations back up to over one thousand flights per day with minimal cancellations. 

    Japanese carriers continued their strong showing, albeit with some falls in the rankings. Japan Airlines ceded top place to PAL, falling to fifth, while All Nippon Airways fell from second to third place. Nonetheless, both carriers continued to display solid operational performances, and in the case of ANA that was with many of the fleet availability issues that Air New Zealand faced. 

    Cathay Pacific’s improvement in on-time performance may be partially attributed to the full opening of the three-runway system at its Hong Kong International airport hub. As one of the countries that was later to lift Covid restrictions, the carrier has not put fleet and pilot shortages behind it and has re-emerged as one of the key connecting carriers in Asia. 

    Similarly, Singapore Airlines on had a minor slip in on-time rate year-on-year, but continued to justify its reputation for sterling service while maximising the use of its fleet. 

  • Ascend Consultancy: Appraiser of the Year for the 11th time

    DUBLIN (Jan. 27, 2026) Cirium Ascend Consultancy has been named Appraiser of the Year 2026 in the Airline Economics Aviation 100 Global Leaders Awards, the team’s 11th title in 15 years. The Consultancy is a highly respected division of Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics.

    The Appraiser of the Year award recognizes the aircraft appraisal provider that has demonstrated the greatest contribution to the industry over the past year. The fourth consecutive win reflects the trust placed in the Ascend Consultancy team and their work by their industry peers.

    The Aviation 100 Global Leaders Awards celebrate the best companies, individuals and transactions in the aviation finance and leasing sector. Accolades are awarded based on an industry-wide survey and an expert panel of judges.

    “Receiving Appraiser of the Year for the 11th time is a meaningful endorsement of the institutional quality valuations capacities we have built over decades,” said Stephen Burnside, Global Head of Consultancy. “It reflects the trust our clients and industry partners place in our independent analysis, the quality of our data, and the dedication of our global team.

    “Over the last decade alone, we have captured more than 17,000 commercial aircraft and engine market data points, spanning pricing, lease rate, maintenance costs, and other value drivers that underpin thoroughly researched valuations. In a complex and rapidly evolving market, our focus remains on delivering insights the industry can rely on, year in and year out.”

    To learn how Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s appraisal and advisory capabilities support the insight and analysis of aviation investments, financial strategies and risk, visit: cirium.com/analytics-services/ascend-consultancy

    For Cirium media inquiries, please contact media@cirium.com.

    About Cirium Ascend Consultancy
    Cirium Ascend Consultancy, a division of Cirium, offers market-leading expertise to help inform and drive successful strategies in the commercial aviation industry. With a global team of seasoned consultants and analysts, Cirium Ascend Consultancy delivers comprehensive data, expert insights, and tailored services that directly impact strategic investments and open avenues for growth in aviation.

    About Cirium 
    Cirium® is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. The company delivers powerful data and cutting-edge analytics to empower a wide spectrum of industry players. It equips airlines, airports, travel enterprises, aircraft manufacturers, and financial entities with the clarity and intelligence they need to optimize their operations, make informed decisions, and accelerate revenue growth. 

    Cirium® is part of LexisNexis® Risk Solutions, a RELX business, which provides information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.  The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX. 

    For more information, follow Cirium® on LinkedIn or visit cirium.com.

  • Transforming investment strategy with granular aviation intelligence

    In an industry defined by high-value assets and complex operational variables, the difference between the certainty needed and the upside sought often lies in the depth of data available. While established financial analysis provides a baseline, it typically lacks the performance variables required to capitalize on market inefficiencies or model scenarios in asset performance accurately.

    For financial investors, navigating the current aviation landscape requires more than just capital; recent Cirium forecasts estimate 46,500 new aircraft worth $3.4 trillion will be delivered globally over the next 20 years. Such market scale amplifies the need for trusted, asset-level data that can be directly integrated into investment thesis. By leveraging Cirium’s proprietary analytics, investors gain a distinct advantage in deal structuring, risk management, scenario modeling, and portfolio optimization.

    Precision in deal origination and structuring

    For debt providers, structuring terms with relevant and granular deal specific data to gain an understanding of risk variables can be transformative. It removes the discomfort of relying on generalized market assumptions. Advanced analytics offer visibility into specific airlines, routes, and aircraft types, drilling down to exact aircraft and engine utilization.

    This level of detail allows for more accurate deal structuring. In place of relying on broad assumptions about asset depreciation, investors can manage investments by tracking performance on multi-level indicators – from airlines and micro- or macro-market dynamics through to exact asset utilization and understanding the CapEx on maintenance events.

    Cirium’s latest 20-year fleet forecast underscores the volume and value of deliveries. The magnitude of opportunity and risk for aviation financiers with single-aisle aircraft projected to account for 71% of the global fleet, understanding the nuances of these delivery patterns is critical for long-term financing.

    This precise data enables the customization of strategy to more accurately reflect the realized risk profile of the collateral. It moves the conversation from general market sentiment to empirical market and asset health overlain by your institutional view, reflecting the necessary pricing and lending covenants. Furthermore, private capital can utilize data-driven insights to facilitate faster and more accurate validation of investment theses, allowing focus on the highest-potential opportunities.

    Predictive power for risk mitigation

    Risk understanding in aviation finance does not yet embrace the anticipation of operational shifts that impact asset value. Hedge funds benefit significantly from predictive capabilities. By analyzing global fleet data, flight schedules, and historical utilization trends, investors (banks, Institutional Investors, NBFIs) can spot early warning signs that traditional financial analysis of creditworthiness might miss.

    The engine market challenge

    Today’s engine market presents unique risks and opportunities. While new-generation engines deliver greater fuel efficiency, they also bring higher fragility, maintenance costs and reliability challenges. Cirium data shows that maintenance costs for newer engine types are expected to remain above those for current-generation engines, despite ongoing advancements.

    As referenced in recent market observations, ongoing reliability issues have meant some airlines have parted-out relatively young aircraft to sustain fleet operations – a phenomenon driving up lease rates and values, especially for well-known engine types like the CFM56.

    For investors, this translates to:

    • Values spiking: Maintenance constraints and supply chain issues are escalating engine and part values.
    • Operational risk: Asset management now demands a nuanced approach, accounting for engine depreciation and secondary market volatility.

    With Cirium’s high-fidelity data, investors can now model and respond to these developments – adjusting exposure by scenario modeling adverse events impact on asset values. This predictive edge is especially critical for managing downside risk in illiquid environments.

    Operational value creation and exit timing

    The value of robust data and analytics extends well beyond the initial transaction. For asset managers and private equity firms, the post-acquisition phase is where returns are realized.

    Investors can track the operational KPIs of their investment in real-time and compare them against global benchmarks. This is crucial for identifying underperformance and implementing corrective strategies, whether it involves broadening the counterparties, ensuring lease agreements are market appropriate, or timing asset disposals and acquisitions to match market developments.

    Monitoring Demand Signals

    While recent fluctuations suggest softening US capacity growth, Cirium data confirms global demand remains solid, with scheduled Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs) growth holding between 4% and 6% throughout the year. This context is vital for portfolio positioning and ongoing investment in aviation.

    Regional disparities – such as the difference between US / Asia-Pacific / European markets – underscores the importance of up-to-date, granular data. Cirium’s schedules, aircraft utilization, traffic, valuations and sentiment insights support evidence-driven pricing and entry/exit timing, ensuring realized value accurately reflects expected investment returns.

    Bridging the gap between finance and operations

    Ultimately, the role of accurate aviation data is the bridge that connects financing requirements and operational or market realities. It is also the element that is often missing. Cirium’s data acts as this bridge, translating complex aviation metrics into actionable financial insights.

    This integration enables investors to move with greater agility and confidence, reducing reliance on anecdotal evidence and replacing it with a credible and independent source of truth that is respected across the industry. Whether deploying capital into infrastructure, managing a financial portfolio of aircraft, or trading aviation-backed securities, access to trusted data ensures that every decision is grounded in reality.

    By integrating Cirium’s intelligence and the latest sector-wide forecasts – including delivery pipelines, engine reliability trends, and global demand signals – financial investors are positioned not just to participate in the market, but to lead with clarity.

    Find out more about how Financial Investors use aviation data.

  • Avianca Scales Connectivity While Cutting Emissions

    In commercial aviation, growth and emissions usually move in the same direction. Airlines add more flights, burn more fuel, and produce more carbon. This pattern has held true for decades, which is why Avianca’s performance since 2019 is so striking.

    According to EmeraldSky data, Avianca stands apart from every other large carrier. During the past five years, the airline increased its overall capacity by more than eighteen percent (18.1%) while also reducing total carbon emissions by more than five percent (5.1%). This combination simply does not happen often.

    The natural question is how Avianca achieved something that most airlines still describe as a long-term aspiration rather than an immediate reality.

    A Fleet That Looks Very Different Today

    Every story about emissions begins with the fleet. Avianca made a series of bold and disciplined choices that reshaped the aircraft it flies. Nearly two thirds of its Airbus A319 aircraft left the operation along with its entire group of A321 aircraft. In their place the airline introduced a significantly larger number of A320neo aircraft and additional A320ceo aircraft.

    The long-haul operation changed as well. Older A330 aircraft departed while the Boeing 787 fleet grew. Avianca also left behind its regional jet and turboprop operations, choosing to simplify and focus on aircraft that deliver stronger fuel performance.

    One of the most important results is the increase in average aircraft size. The typical Avianca aircraft carried 144 seats in 2019. Today that figure is 181. This was achieved by reconfiguring all its fleet, both narrow and wide bodies airplanes. Although the average age of the fleet increased slightly to nine and a half years, which reflects global supply chain issues that affected all airlines, the overall efficiency of the fleet still improved meaningfully.

    More Seats and More Efficiency

    By 2024 Avianca had restored its flight activity to the same level it operated in 2019. The difference is that the airline generated far more capacity because it was flying larger aircraft and flying them slightly farther on average. The removal of turboprop flying also meant that flight time did not materially increase even as stage length grew.

    This resulted in an 18.1% increase in available seat kilometers. At the same time the shift toward newer and more efficient aircraft produced a reduction in absolute carbon emissions of 5.1%.

    When combined, these factors created a major improvement in carbon intensity. Avianca moved from 82.6 grams of carbon per available seat kilometer to 66.3 grams. This represents a reduction of nearly 20%, which very few global airlines have managed to achieve on this scale.

    A Model for Responsible Growth

    Avianca’s experience shows that it is possible to grow and still reduce the environmental impact of flying. It requires discipline in fleet planning, a willingness to retire older aircraft, and a long-term commitment to efficiency.

    The journey for the aviation industry is not finished, but Avianca has shown what is possible when strategy and execution come together with clarity of intent. The airline is not only growing. It is growing in a more responsible way, and that achievement deserves attention.

  • Istanbul Airport wins the 2025 Platinum Award

    Mike Malik, Chief Industry Officer, Cirium

    That infrastructure milestone, combined with sustained performance across the full year, has earned Istanbul Airport Cirium’s 2025 Platinum Award for the world’s best-performing airport. 

    Istanbul handles over 84 million passengers annually across 330 destinations through 116 airlines. Positioned at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, the airport manages dense connectivity patterns, complex wave structures, and high daily aircraft movements. At this intensity, minor disruptions propagate quickly across regions and time zones without active management. 

    In June 2025, ACI Europe’s Airport Industry Connectivity Report named Istanbul Airport the world’s most connected hub, overtaking Frankfurt after a 59% increase in global hub connectivity since 2019. The airport also leads Europe in direct connectivity. 

    The Platinum Award measures more than on-time departure percentages. Cirium’s analysis evaluates delay severity, the airport’s ability to limit prolonged disruption, and how effectively operations preserve schedule integrity across the wider network. Performance is assessed across the full calendar year, not isolated peak periods. 

    Istanbul distinguished itself through consistency across changing seasonal demand and varying congestion levels. The additional airside capacity reduced peak-period congestion and strengthened the airport’s ability to absorb disruption without allowing delays to escalate. 

    Large, complex airports inevitably face weather events, airspace constraints, and downstream delays. What separates strong operations from exceptional ones is the response when pressure builds. Istanbul’s 2025 performance reflected management that limited delay severity and reduced passenger disruption, even during peak demand. 

    The runway upgrade required coordination across multiple stakeholders. Airlines adjusted gate assignments and taxi procedures. Ground handlers modified turnaround sequencing. Air traffic control refined departure spacing. The capacity expansion delivered value because the airport’s operations adapted to use it effectively. 

    This achievement comes as airport performance faces increasing scrutiny. Passenger expectations continue rising, airline networks operate closer to capacity, and tolerance for disruption is diminishing. Airports now play a central role in safeguarding aviation system reliability, with their performance directly influencing airline outcomes and customer trust. 

    Cirium’s Platinum Airport Award provides an independent, data-driven benchmark for excellence. Using globally consistent methodologies and verified operational data, the award recognizes airports that deliver reliable performance at scale across an entire year. 

    By earning the 2025 Platinum Airport Award, Istanbul Airport demonstrates that scale and complexity can coexist with consistency and control. The combination of infrastructure investment and operational discipline sets a clear benchmark for major hub airports navigating sustained pressure on global aviation infrastructure. We congratulate Istanbul Airport’s management and operational teams for earning this prestigious distinction. 

  • Transforming SCL: Connecting Chile to the Globe

    Lydia Webb, Marketing Director – Americas & Strategic Programs, Cirium

    SCL has recently undergone significant modernization, including the opening of its new 248,400 m² international Terminal 2. This expansion more than doubled the airport’s annual passenger capacity from 16 million to 38 million, establishing it as one of South America’s most advanced aviation facilities. 

    SCL is a vital asset for Chile’s economy, connectivity, and infrastructure. It serves as Latin America’s gateway to Oceania, with routes to Sydney, Melbourne, Auckland, and Easter Island. The airport also serves as a long-haul hub for global carriers like Air France and British Airways. It also houses Chile’s major airlines, maintenance operations, and the Chilean Air Force’s 2nd Air Brigade.  

    An Economic Pillar for the Chilean Economy  

    Tourism is a major economic pillar for Chile, and SCL directly influences visitor inflows. Early 2025 saw the airport handle over five million passengers in just two months, a 4.4% increase compared to 2024. International arrivals surged—particularly from Brazil, Argentina, and Peru—reflecting growing demand for regional tourism and business travel.  By functioning as the primary entry point for international travelers, SCL directly feeds revenue into Chile’s national and local economies. 

    The airport is at the center of one of the largest infrastructure expansions in Chile’s history—a $4 billion program aimed at tripling capacity by 2050.  This longterm project will help reshape Chile’s role in global aviation and commerce by increasing operational capacity to 84 million passengers and 125 operations per hour, three times its current levels.  

    Commitment to OnTime Performance  

    Santiago Arturo Merino Benítez International Airport made significant strides in operational performance during 2024–2025, despite capacity pressures and ongoing modernization. As Chile’s busiest airport, SCL improved its on-time performance (OTP) to 87.04% in 2025, a 4.20% improvement from 2024, even while managing rapid growth in international travel.  

    Looking Ahead 

    SCL’s operational performance is projected to continue its upward trend. This will be driven by several strategic initiatives including the construction of a third runway and terminal and the introduction of a light rail for improved access.  

    SCL’s strategic investments underscore its commitment to operational excellence. This proactive approach not only addresses current demands but also solidifies its position as a forward-thinking, high-performing facility prepared to meet future challenges.  

  • North America Knows Resiliency:  Delta Air Lines is Proof

    Scott McCartney, Aviation Consultant and Adjunct Professor
    Duke University

    For airlines, the word of the year was resiliency. Carriers faced delays from telecommunications equipment failures in control towers at the busiest airports in the country, including Newark, Denver, Houston, Atlanta and Dallas-Fort Worth. In some cases, controllers couldn’t talk to pilots for terrifying minutes, forcing diversions and ground stops.  

    In all, the FAA said flight-delay minutes due to equipment issues were about 300% higher in 2025 than the average of 2010-2024. On top of that, a six-week U.S. government shutdown led to shortages of air-traffic controllers and widespread delays and schedule reductions. 

    Delta Air Lines remained #1 in North America in 2025, but its on-time arrival rate was down more than two percentage points from the previous year. United Airlines, hit hard by multiple telecommunication outages affecting its Newark International Airport hub, dropped from second-place in North America in 2024 to fourth place in 2025. 

    There were some improvements. Seattle-based Alaska Airlines, which was largely isolated from much of the FAA equipment failures, moved up to #2 from third-place the previous year. Even more remarkable was a major improvement by Spirit Airlines, achieved third-place despite a return to bankruptcy-court protection during the year. Spirit posted an on-time rate of 78.83%, up from about 76.05%, as employees clearly stayed focused on running the airline reliably even as its financial future was uncertain. 

    Canadian airlines also showed significant reliability improvement, with both WestJet and Air Canada posting roughly two-percentage-point increases in on-time performance. 

    American Airlines has been trying hard for years to improve its reliability and catch up to Delta and United. But American took a step backwards in 2025 with all the ATC outages, including a cut telecommunications cable near the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, its largest hub, that disrupted flights on a busy weekend. The FAA said a backup system failed along with the primary system. American was so frustrated that it issued a statement blasting the telecommunications provider for not responding to the problem with appropriate urgency. 

    For the year, American dropped to #6 from #4 as it got fewer than 77% of its flights to the gate on-time, down from just under 78% in 2024.