Category: Ascend Consultancy

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

There continues to be much talk about commercial aircraft deficits. Cirium Ascend Consultancy has explained before that in reality these amount to a deficit of new aircraft caused by the inability of Airbus and Boeing to increase production as rapidly as they would like, for a multitude of reasons. Last year they delivered 766 and 348 aircraft respectively across their commercial jet programmes, including a handful of aircraft for non-commercial roles. For 2025 Airbus has stated a delivery guidance of 820. Boeing has been silent, but we have a working estimate of 610 units.

As the first quarter closed on Monday, we now have initial estimates for March, and hence first quarter, deliveries. Cirium’s fleet data indicates that Airbus delivered 69 aircraft in the month, including 18 A320s, 33 A321s, 10 A220s, two A330-900s and six A350-900s. Consequently, first quarter shipments total 134. Looking at data for the past 15 years (2010-2024), Airbus has historically averaged 20% of total annual deliveries in the first quarter. Hence, this cumulative 134 Q1 total suggests a 2025 annual total of 660, significantly short of the 820 target.

However, Airbus was clear in its February briefing that we should expect lower deliveries in the early part of the year due to a relative shortage of engine deliveries, particularly CFM Leap for the A320 family. There is some evidence of this through analysis of aircraft backlog and production progress. Cirium data indicates that Airbus currently has 43 A320 family aircraft which have flown but not yet been delivered, whilst further research suggests there are at least 70 which have been rolled out of the respective final assembly lines but which have not yet flown. These include 43 aircraft which Cirium data indicates will be powered by Leap engines when finally delivered.

Hence, Airbus has potential to increase delivery rates in the second quarter (and beyond) as they work through these aircraft. There are also signs of increasing A320 production pace again, with 53 first flights detected in March (compared to 42 in February and only 38 in January; as an aside there were also three on 1 April), perhaps headed back towards the average close to 60 seen in the final quarter of 2024. Since Airbus stated an expectation of 820 deliveries this year only a few weeks ago, it seems likely that this slow progress was already expected and at present there is no reason to doubt that number.

Over at Boeing, Cirium estimates 41 deliveries in March including 33 737 Max, four 787s and four 777-200LRFs, taking the Q1 total to 130. The US OEM has historically delivered 24.5% of annual deliveries in the first quarter and hence there is an indication of 530 total, again relatively short of our 610 expectation for the year. However, we know that Boeing is working through a ramp-up on the 737 line and first flight data indicates 27 aircraft built in March, up from an average of 23 in the first two months of the year and as few as 10 in November 2024. Expectations of achieving the FAA-imposed cap of 38 per month by mid-year seem reasonable.

Boeing’s deliveries are also being augmented by inventory aircraft. In 2025 to date almost 25% of 737 Max deliveries have been aircraft that flew more than 90 days prior to delivery. Although the pace of delivery of such aircraft seems to have slowed in March, with only four amongst the 33 total, there are still some 34 737-8s in inventory which seem likely to be delivered this year. If 737-7 deliveries could begin in 2025 (post-certification) then there are a further 28 potential deliveries there. The upside opportunity is completed with the 787 programme, where Cirium data indicates 25 aircraft flown prior to 2025 yet to be delivered (including 13 specifically for Lufthansa which are delayed by seat supply issues).

In summary, provisional first quarter delivery data indicates that both Airbus and Boeing face significant challenges if they are to achieve 2025’s delivery targets. However, there are clear data arguments to suggest that we should see volumes increase in the coming months. Therefore, it seems premature to be revising those targets downwards yet.

As a postscript, what about Comac? Following 13 C919 deliveries in 2024, we have seen suggestions of around 30 in 2025. We have also very recently seen reports of the three major Chinese airlines – China Eastern, Air China and China Southern – expecting 10, 12 and 10 C919 deliveries respectively this year. Yet in the first quarter Cirium’s data records only a single unit delivered to Comac Express. I bear this slow progress in mind each time I hear comments about Comac’s potential to break the duopoly. The challenge in Shanghai is clearly at least as great as those faced by Airbus and Boeing.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Yiru Zhang, Senior Valuation Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

Persistent Challenges in the PW1100G Fleet

As the aviation industry continues to navigate supply chain disruptions and reliability concerns, the challenges surrounding new-generation engines remain a critical focal point. As of March 10, 2025more than 600 PW1100G-powered A320 family aircraft remain parked, accounting for 35% of the global fleet. While some suggest the worst may be over, caution is warranted. In contrast, the parked LEAP engine fleet is small and continues to decline in line with seasonal trend, signaling a more stable trajectory for its operational fleet.

RTX reported $1.1 billion in GTF engine compensation payments in 2024, with further projected payouts between $1.1 and $1.3 billion in 2025, underscoring the financial burden caused by ongoing groundings. These payments are issued as aircraft-on-ground (AOG) incidents occur, reflecting the sustained impact on airline operations.

Source: Cirium Core, 10 March 2025 (aircraft classified as parked following 7 continuous days of inactivity and therefore subject to restatement in near-term)

Engine Production and Delivery Constraints

RTX, the parent company of Pratt & Whitney, has signalled a 14% increase in large commercial engine production in 2025, with a slight increase in installations relative to additions to the spares pool. Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s analysis-driven 2025 delivery projections appear to show downside risk when compared to statements made by RTX as well as its competitor, in terms of supporting airframers to achieve their delivery targets for 2025.

While the powder metallurgy issue is expected to be largely resolved within the next 18–24 months, other technical and supply chain challenges persist. The uncertainty surrounding next-generation engine technologies through 2030 is prompting airlines to retain CFM56 and IAE-powered aircraft longer than initially planned. This trend suggests sustained demand for older-generation engines well into the 2030s, albeit at lower price points than currently.

Market Value Trends in Single-Aisle Aircraft

The following analysis of fleet-weighted market values for key single-aisle aircraft, indexed to December 2019 levels, highlights some notable trends:

Source: Cirium Core Current Market Values indexed to December 2019, on a fleet-weighted and constant-age basis

The A320ceo and 737-800 have shown the most significant value appreciation. Mid-life 737NG values saw an uptick in Q1 2025. The A320ceo family is currently under review, but both A320 and A321 are expected to show a stable trend alongside other mid-life narrowbody aircraft.

Older-generation aircraft values remain robust, supported by strong engine demand. Data indicates that lease extension levels are higher through 2023 and 2024 than in the latter years of the prior cycle. While demand for CFM56 and IAE engines remains solid over the next three years, supply constraints could ease once new production ramps up and more aircraft undergo part-out. A potential weakening in macroeconomic conditions and passenger demand could accelerate this timeline, but for now, the market remains resilient.

Despite production increases, PW1100G-related disruptions will likely persist for the rest of the decade, reinforcing the need for strategic fleet planning among airlines and lessors.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Toshimitsu Sogabe, Aviation Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance (ACMI) leasing has become an increasingly essential strategy for airlines to address operational challenges. Factors such as delayed new aircraft deliveries, supply chain constraints leading to parts shortages, prolonged maintenance turnaround times, and overall operational limitations continue to drive demand for ACMI solutions. Under such circumstances, we have assessed which airlines have been heavily utilizing the fleet from specialist ACMI providers.

Below are the top ten airlines with the largest passenger fleet sourced from ACMI providers in July 2024 (Northern Hemisphere Summer). Note this does not include “traditional” airlines categorized as non-ACMI providers under Cirium Fleets Analyzer (e.g. Finnair wet-leasing their A330s to Qantas, or AirBaltic wet-leasing their A220s to Lufthansa Group).

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

The above list reflects a diverse mix of airlines, including full-service carriers, low-cost carriers (LCCs), regional airlines and freighter operators.

In contrast, when examining the top ten airlines in January 2025 (Northern Hemisphere Winter), we observe shifts in rankings, with some airlines increasing or decreasing their fleet from specialist ACMI providers, while others have been completely removed from the list.

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

It is notable that while flag carriers such as Lufthansa Group, THY (through it’s subsidiary Ajet), Air France-KLM Group and SAS sees some reductions but continue to utilize ACMI provider’s fleet in January 2025, leisure and tour operators have significantly scaled down or completely phased out these fleets. The most striking example is TUI, which returned most of its 22 aircraft that were in operation in July 2024 by January 2025 to ACMI providers. Similarly, Jet2 and SunExpress, both of which had incorporated ACMI provider’s fleet in July 2024 (with eight and seven aircraft respectively), fully discontinued their ACMI provider’s fleet utilization by January 2025. This is understandable given the larger fluctuation in peak and off-peak demand for leisure and tour operators. In contrast, Indigo has maintained (or in fact slightly increased) their fleet from ACMI providers, primarily to compensate for ongoing groundings of its owned and leased aircraft due to Pratt and Whitney’s GTF engine issues.

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer

The above chart highlights that Europe remains the largest market for ACMI provider’s fleet utilization. It is interesting to see Africa ranks as the second-largest market, despite its relatively smaller aviation sector compared to other continents. A significant portion of ACMI demand in the Asia Pacific and Latin American markets is driven by Indigo and VivaAerobus; excluding the two airlines would result in a substantial reduction in ACMI provider’s fleet usage in these regions (Turkey is categorized as part of “Europe” under Cirium Fleets Analyzer). Furthermore, European airlines have significantly reduced their ACMI provider’s fleet utilization in January 2025, whereas other regions have shown an overall increase, with the exception of Africa, which experienced a slight reduction. This may be attributed to a combination of factors, including seasonal fluctuations in air traffic (including countries in the Southern Hemisphere), and non-seasonal challenges that necessitate ACMI use, as observed in IndiGo’s case).

As mentioned above it is important to note that this assessment does not completely capture the impact of the full wet-lease demand in the market as we have not assessed wet-lease provided by “traditional” airlines. However even within this scope, we can observe the distinct variations in airline requirements and/or operational strategies regarding ACMI utilization.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Thomas Kaplan, Senior Valuations Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

The decade of the 2010s saw tremendous growth of the leased fleet size (~88% in total), but also the entrance of many new operating lessors, leading to fragmentation of the fleet. In 2010, two lessors, GECAS and ILFC accounted for nearly 40% of the leased fleet. By the end of the decade, eight lessors would share the 40%. The number of managers classified as operating lessors with at least one aircraft in service or stored increased from 143 to 186. 90% of the leased fleet went from being shared amongst 41 lessors to 63.

The pandemic put the brakes on lessor trading as aircraft values fell and later rising interest rates increased lessor cost of capital. With defaulting lessees and geopolitical shifts, the trend reversed towards more consolidation, at least on the level of the largest lessors. The chart below tracks consolidation of the lessor fleet. The difference between the green and black line shows the fragmentation and growth trend of the 2010’s. The red line, representing today’s fleet, is above the black line but the shift is mostly noticeable for the largest lessors. The largest consolidation that can be spotted from the chart intercepting the y-axis is AerCap’s 2021 acquisition of GECAS.  However, for half a decade of trend, consolidation has not moved very quickly, particularly compared to the speed of change observed in the previous decade.

Lessor Fleet Distribution Over Time

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, Narrowbody and Widebody Jets, Commercial usage, excluding unconfirmed lessors. Note: Avolon acquisition of Castlelake portfolio accounted for in February 2025 data.

The yellow line, which is barely visible due to its overlap with today’s fleet, represents the picture at the very start of 2024. The past 13 months had a large “consolidation” event in the Avolon acquisition of a 106 aircraft portfolio from Castlelake. While it is significant in rearranging the size rankings of the two lessors in question, it does not do much to change the landscape. DAE Capital’s planned acquisition of Nordic Aviation Capital is a very significant consolidation event, but mostly involving regional aircraft so does not affect this analysis which focuses on narrowbody and widebody jets.

New entrant activity continued at a slow pace to dampen the consolidation trend. IAT Leasing took out an advertisement at Dublin Airport to catch the eye of those flying in to attend the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers conference in January 2025. They now have nine aircraft on lease including three A330-200s. Notable new entrants from earlier in the decade which have managed to grow beyond a 40 aircraft portfolio include AviLease, SKY Leasing, Griffin Global Asset Management and Vmo Aircraft Leasing. Gaining scale has been challenging, however, with only Avilease breaching the 100-jet mark following its 2023 acquisition of Standard Chartered’s aircraft leasing business.

Lessor fleet distribution change since 2024 has been minimal:

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, Narrowbody and Widebody jets, Commercial usage, in-service/stored fleet, excluding unconfirmed lessors

Will the consolidation trend pick up again in 2025? Cirium reported in an interview that Stratos chief Gary Fitzgerald, who contributed to the consolidation trend in 2023 with the acquisition of Magi Partners, believes the industry would benefit from consolidation as some leasing platforms have underperformed. Carlyle Aviation Partners’ Robert Korn also suggested that the recent strength of the US dollar should make for a good exit opportunity for some lessors. Carlyle was a driver of consolidation as well with its 2021 ACMK acquisition. Economies of scale do exist for aircraft leasing to a certain extent, which should favour some consolidation. Perhaps the lessors with the lowest cost of funding will take the opportunity to grow their scale – if they find a lessor willing to sell. While there are good reasons for consolidation to occur, it remains to be seen if conditions will finally warm to allow it.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Herman Tse, Valuations Manager, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

On 1 February 2025, the Trump administration announced three Executive Orders that will significantly affect tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. The modifications regarding tariffs on goods from China and Hong Kong took effect on 4 February while those related to Canadian and Mexican imports are set to be paused until March 2025. Although similar measures were first introduced in 2018 during Trump’s first term as President, the 2025 tariffs are anticipated to exert a more substantial impact on the air cargo sector due to their broader scope.

With these stringent tariffs in place, what are the implications for the aviation market, particularly in the air cargo sector and freighters?

When the initial tariffs on steel and aluminium imports were implemented in March 2018, followed by several rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods, air cargo demand began to slow. While full-year air cargo demand growth in 2018 remained positive at 3.5%, it was significantly lower than the 9.0% and 9.8% seen in 2017 and 2016, respectively. In 2019, air cargo demand subsequently declined by 3.9%.

The new tariffs introduced in 2025 include a “de minimis” provision, which applies to packages valued under $800. This provision, previously exempted in 2018, has been extensively utilised by online retail giants from China, such as Shein and Temu, enabling them to offer goods at remarkably low prices and contributing to their growing popularity. In 2023, approximately 30% of U.S. online shoppers reported purchasing items from China. While specific data on the percentage of total imports falling under the de minimis threshold is not readily available, it is estimated that a significant portion of low value e-commerce shipments will be affected by these new tariffs.

The Trend of Global Air Cargo Supply and Demand

Note: CTK: cargo-tonne-kilometre ACTK: available-tonne-kilometre
Source: IATA; Cirium Ascend Consultancy analysis

Despite the decline in air cargo demand in 2019, the global freighter fleet experienced growth. According to Cirium data, the number of widebody and narrowbody freighters in service increased by 4% and 5% respectively in 2019, while their average daily utilisation rose by 2% and 5%. This suggests that the tariffs imposed in 2018 did not significantly hinder freighter operations. In fact, the rising demand for domestic consumption in both China and the U.S. may have positively influenced narrowbody freighters. This trend is evidenced by global capacity (available cargo ton kilometres), which recorded consistent year-on-year monthly increases throughout 2019, culminating in a moderate 2.1% rise for the full year.

However, the combination of declining demand and increasing supply resulted in a 2.6% decrease in load factor, negatively impacting the profitability of freighter operators, particularly in less efficient international operations. The data indicates that the tariffs enacted in 2018 introduced some challenges, underscoring the complex dynamics of the global trade environment, but there were not insurmountable.

The Fleet of Narrowbody and Widebody Freighters

Source: Cirium Core

The effectiveness of the new tariffs in significantly reducing the US deficit and improving economic conditions remains uncertain. However, one certainty is that air cargo demand may be expected to decline. The extent of this decline will depend on the scope and coverage of the tariffs. Despite the potential short-term turbulence in specific markets, such as China and the US, demand for freighters seems unlikely to be significantly affected. Air cargo demand is projected to continue growing in the long term. However, small widebody freighter operators with a focus on the China-US market may face challenges if the tariffs are prolonged. These operators, with their smaller fleet sizes, might struggle financially under extended tariff implementations.

Many questions remain as a consequence of early policy initiatives from the new US administration, but it is clear that the aviation market will need to closely monitor developments and adapt accordingly to maintain efficiency and competitiveness in a rapidly evolving geo-political environment.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

As 2025 opened, the team at Cirium Ascend Consultancy brought together its collective intelligence and insight to estimate how many commercial passenger jets Airbus and Boeing would deliver to customers in 2025 and beyond. Based upon our Cirium Fleet Forecast, plus many years of collective experience, we concluded that Airbus could ship as many as 900 units whilst Boeing might show a strong recovery this year to deliver around 550 passenger aircraft amongst an overall total of 610 commercial jets.

Projecting annual deliveries has become increasingly difficult over the past few years, driven initially by the demand uncertainty induced in the early days of the pandemic but then exacerbated more recently by supply-side uncertainty arising from supply-chain delays and other disruptions at the airframe OEMs. Prime amongst those supply-chain delays have been the engine OEMs. Most specifically, issues within the new-generation CFM Leap and Pratt & Whitney PW1000G programmes have reportedly paced single-aisle deliveries (along of course with Boeing’s own self-induced 737 Max challenges) have caused fewer than expected deliveries from both OEMs.

As a consequence, Airbus delivered 674 single-aisle aircraft last year (599 A320 family and 75 A220s) and Boeing managed only 258. Within our projection of 2025 deliveries, we include an expectation of around 680 A320 family, 100 A220 and 450 737 Max. If these forecasts are to be achieved, and by the way our projections require Airbus to improve 2025 output by around 20% over 2024 and Boeing to increase by 80%, the respective supply chains become pivotal. Both GE and RTX (P&W) have made forward-looking statements in the past 10 days, so we can potentially use those to work out if our projections are credible.

GE noted that it delivered 1,407 Leap engines and expects to increase production by between 15% and 20% in 2025. RTX itself was silent on the number of engines produced but did say it expected to increase large commercial engine output by around 14% whilst at the same time seeing a “modest tilt towards more installs”, indicating airframe OEMs may expect to see slightly more of the 2025 output than they did in 2024. What do these numbers mean?

If GE achieves the mid-point of its planned increase, that would imply around 1,650 engine deliveries in 2025. If we assume that around 20% of these are spare engines, higher than our typical spares assumption but maybe consistent with market demand given Leap is just now starting to see higher volume of first shop visit, then that would yield around 690 shipsets for airframe OEM installation.

At P&W it is a little harder, but we saw around 350 Airbus aircraft deliveries with PW1000G engines in 2024, equating to 700 installed engines. If we assume spares were around 20%, then that implies 840 total engine deliveries last year. Increase by 14% takes us to around 960. Then assume 15% spares this year and we have around 830 engines or 415 installed shipsets.

The overall total of 1,105 engine shipsets is low when compared to the 1,230 deliveries projected above. Of course, Boeing started 2025 with more than 100 737 Max in inventory, including 34 which have already been delivered this year and another 52 737-8/9 variants which almost certainly will be. Those bring the 1,105 total to 1,190, but that is still some 40 aircraft lower than our demand-driven projections. Max volumes could increase further if the 737-7 is certificated this year, with 27 of those in inventory. But that remains highly uncertain for now.

In summary, most recent outlook statements by engine OEMs do suggest that our 2025 delivery projections have downside risk. Last year, we opened with an expectation of more than 1,500 deliveries between Airbus and Boeing, a projection that was iteratively reduced through the year until we arrived at the final much lower totals. It does seem that we may see a similar experience this year, albeit the shortfall looks potentially much smaller given the numbers above.

Finally and with all this in mind, how does January look? I am writing this on the final day of the month and as we stand today (and recognising data lag), initial experience doesn’t look promising. Cirium’s fleet researchers have to date captured details of only two A220, 15 A320 family and 38 737 Max deliveries in January 2025. The first month of the year always features low delivery volumes. Airbus’s January A320 output has ranged between 15 and 32 on an annual basis since 2018, but last year it shipped 26 aircraft so 2025 looks to be lagging that. Boeing typically does a bit better in January and, as already noted, this month’s total to date of 38 does include a vast majority of aircraft which flew for the first time last year or earlier.

Hence, January doesn’t tell us too much other than it is going to be another challenging year both for OEMs and for those of us who love to make short-term forecasts.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Richard Evans, Senior Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

Read Part One and Part Two of Do airline dreams come true?

In the previous Cirium Ascend Consultancy Team Perspective, I looked at some examples of airline order backlogs, and how they can easily change over time, see deferrals, or even disappear altogether. This week, I look at the opposite viewpoint. In other words, which airlines are likely to place additional orders in the near future? Have these carriers played it clever, exhibiting sound fleet management, or have they missed the boat in terms of securing fuel-efficient next generation replacements?

Again, all fleet figures refer to single-aisle and twin-aisle passenger aircraft, both in service and stored, operated by airlines.

Current Order Status

The concept of being ‘underordered’ is not that simple. Backlog-to-fleet ratio is a good measure, and if this is above 1.0, clearly the airline is either planning to grow rapidly, or it plans to replace all its current fleet. If the ratio is 0.4 or 0.5, this could well be sufficient for medium-term planning. Variables include market growth rate, the age distribution of the current fleet, as well as the competitive position of the airline. It is necessary to consider the airline group, rather than individual operators or brands, to get the full picture.

The chart below includes airlines or airline groups that have at least 100 aircraft in service today, and have backlog-to-fleet ratios below 0.4. The average age of the current fleet varies widely, between 8-16 years.

Chart 1: Largest ‘underordered’ airlines

Source: Cirium Schedules data, Cirium Ascend Consultancy analysis

Eight of the 22 airlines shown are major network carriers in North America and Europe. They are in slow-growing mature markets, generally own rather than lease their fleets, and also tend to keep aircraft until final removal from service and retirement. Within these, all but Alaska Airlines have average fleet ages above 12 years. Delta and American have the oldest fleets, at 15.5 and 13.8 years respectively. Even allowing for slower growth and older retirement policy, clearly some of these, particularly Air France/KLM Group and IAG, could readily use additional new-generation aircraft. These would cut fuel costs and help airlines reduce their emissions in-line with commitments to Net Zero.

ANA is in a similar situation, with just 59 aircraft on order, and a backlog-to-fleet ratio of just 0.24. However, it does have a younger fleet age profile.

Ryanair has comparatively few aircraft on backlog. After taking delivery of its remaining 38 737 Max 8-200s, it has a backlog of 150 Max 10s. However, in its investor update, it does state it has 300 Max 10 aircraft on order, implying its Letter of Intent (LoI) for another 150 units is almost certainly to be converted to a firm order soon.

Several airlines in Latin America have smaller backlogs at present. However, many in the region have gone through restructuring process, and are traditionally reliant on leasing, so it may be expected some of their shortfall in orders will be met from lessor backlogs.

What About China?

The lack of backlog for Chinese airlines is very apparent. This is a market that grew at 13.3% per annum between 2009 and 2019, and took delivery of 2,900 jets in the decade. Fleets Analyzer data shows just 550 Airbus and Boeing aircraft on order for Chinese airlines today, plus another 475 C919s. Even including the COMAC aircraft, this gives a backlog-to-fleet of just 0.25.

However, there are 1,100 Airbus and Boeing aircraft recorded as being on order for ‘unannounced commercial customers’. Several hundred of these are likely to be for Chinese airlines and leasing companies. The actual destination of these often only becomes apparent at delivery. At this point Boeing unveils ‘unidentified customers identified at delivery’. For example, in its December 2024 data Boeing listed three aircraft delivered to Chinese airlines that were ordered in 2014 and 2016, having lain as unannounced customers for a decade!

In summary, the real backlog for Chinese airlines is higher than 1,025 units, but even so, the country’s airlines will require more aircraft. The obvious conclusion is that they will rely on COMAC to fill the gap, in order to obtain the 400 new aircraft per annum that are called for in the latest Cirium Fleet Forecast.

Lessor Backlog

Chinese operating lessors currently have 495 C919s on order that are not allocated to a specific airline. This highlights an alternative source of new aircraft for airlines that are late to the current order cycle. There are just over 1,400 Airbus and Boeing aircraft on order with lessors with unknown lessees. Obviously some of these will already have been placed with airlines, but they have not been made public yet. Thus it is possible that some of the airlines highlighted as being ‘underordered’ may already have sourced some additional aircraft from the lessor backlog.

For any of the airlines with low backlog-to-fleet ratios that are looking to acquire new aircraft via lessors, they will still have to get in line for a delivery slot. The A320neo and 737 Max families are now sold-out for several years, but even unplaced lessor slots are limited in the next two years as shown in the slide.

Chart 2: Unplaced operating lessor backlog

Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, Cirium Ascend Consultancy analysis

Conclusions

Earlier, we highlighted how some airlines have placed huge orders that don’t always come to 100% fruition, for multiple reasons. However, there are currently several large airlines or airline groups that could be considered to be underordered, especially considering the long lead-times required from an order placed in 2025 to delivery.

The first available OEM slots for 737 Max and A320neo family types, as well as twin-aisle 787s and A350s, are now likely to be in the early 2030s, so airlines may have to consider alternative sources of supply. One is via lessors, but how many of their 1,400 unplaced aircraft are really available? There is some earlier OEM availability on the A220 and A330neo, so we may see more interest in these types. It also seems clear that China will look towards the C919 programme to help fill its lack of backlog for Airbus and Boeing single-aisles.

History teaches us that opportunities sometimes arise to reallocate aircraft from airlines that have ordered too many aircraft, or those that find themselves in financial problems. Price escalation is also an issue for some orders placed many years ago, such that an airline may seek to renegotiate its order backlog.

However, deals such as these cannot be done without the full agreement of the aircraft manufacturers themselves, as they retain ownership of the delivery slots. Boeing has recently undertaken a major exercise to find homes for 737 Max aircraft that were originally destined for China. Many have been delivered to India, helping that fast-growing market obtain earlier capacity. In the past, well-capitalised airlines in the US and Europe have obtained slots that have been deferred by airlines during economic downturns. Might we see nearer-term slots at overordered airlines in Southeast Asia become available, or even backlogs transferred to lessors?

In conclusion, some airlines may wish they had placed orders earlier in the post-Covid recovery cycle, but there are always ways that enable a win-win for both airframer and airline when the latter is seen as a ‘strategic customer’. 

Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.

Discover the team’s industry reports & market commentaries. Read their latest expert analysis, viewpoints and updates on Thought Cloud.

Max Kingsley-Jones, Head of Advisory, Cirium Ascend Consultancy

Delivery volume for the mainline commercial aircraft types in 2024 was down over 10% year-on-year, amid production issues that blighted Boeing from early January. A deeper dive into the 2024 numbers in context with recent years highlights how OEM market share was impacted. It is also interesting to scrutinise how the geographical distribution of shipments compared last year, and how engine OEM delivery share has been evolving on the A320 family.

Cirium data shows that a total of 1,094 Airbus and Boeing commercial passenger and freighter aircraft were delivered in 2024 (to airline and financial customers), compared with 1,233 in 2023. At the start of last year, our expectations were that the two OEMs’ combined shipment volume could be up 20% above 2023 (i.e. ~1,500 aircraft). Airbus had originally intended to deliver 800 aircraft but in June reduced its forecast to 770 amid ongoing supply-chain snags. Toulouse ultimately achieved a total of 766 deliveries (761 if non-commercial variants and customers are excluded).

Boeing refrained from providing any delivery guidance throughout 2024 as it grappled first with the repercussions on its production rate of the Alaska 737 Max accident and subsequently the machinists’ strike. In the end, Boeing shipped 333 commercial aircraft, a third less than 2023.  As the chart below shows, Boeing’s share of deliveries versus Airbus plummeted last year to only 30% – its lowest since the 2019-2020 period when Max deliveries were suspended.

Ahead of any OEM guidance for 2025, Cirium is projecting deliveries will reach the 1,500-mark originally expected in 2024. Airbus could see its deliveries rise by up to 15% or more, while Boeing is expected to recover its shipments volume and move back towards a share of around 40%. But much will depend on supply-chain and regulatory progress this year.

Airbus/Boeing Commercial Aircraft Deliveries and Market Share – 2018-2025*

Source: Cirium Core; note: passenger/freighter deliveries to commercial operators/financial institutions; *2025F is Cirium estimate prior to any OEM guidance

From a geographical perspective, airlines across the entire Asia-Pacific region took the largest number of deliveries in 2024 (384 aircraft), although with China split out, Europe is elevated to the top slot with 317 shipments.

The chart below illustrates the total 2024 volumes by region and the share they accounted for of each OEM’s deliveries. European airlines took the largest chunk of Airbus’s deliveries, while North America was the biggest market for Boeing (29% of its shipments).  The revival of 737 Max deliveries to China in 2024 after an almost five-year hiatus ensured Boeing’s volumes to this crucial market made a solid return. The 737 accounted for 47 of the US OEM’s 53 shipments to China last year, with the total representing a fifth of all Boeing’s 2024 deliveries.

Airbus/Boeing 2024 Delivery Volume and Share by Region

Source: Cirium Core; note: passenger/freighter deliveries to airline operators only

Pratt & Whitney has been under intense pressure as it sought to tackle the well-documented GTF issues. CFM has also had to address issues which have impacted production. So it is interesting to assess how the two rivals’ share of the A320 market has been evolving since before Covid when deliveries of the GTF/A320neo were still in their early days.

A320 Family Deliveries by Engine OEM and Market Share – 2018-2024

Source: Cirium Core; note: deliveries to commercial operators/financial institutions

Although A320neo family deliveries increased 5% last year, the number powered by the PW1100G actually reduced slightly, while CFM’s share rose significantly. As shown in the chart, engine OEM delivery share shifted from parity in 2023 to CFM taking a 54% last year. 2023 marked the high-/water mark for P&W’s share of A320 deliveries in recent times.

In overall terms, P&W’s share versus CFM of single-aisle aircraft deliveries rose in 2024 to 37%, from 34% in 2023, as CFM volumes were affected by declining 737 Max shipments and P&W saw more A220 deliveries. P&W also powered an additional 47 commercial deliveries in the regional jet sector last year – the PW1900G-powered E-Jet E2.