London, March 4, 2025: Cirium, the most trusted source of aviation analytics, has unveiled a new innovative tool, Asset Watch, designed to transform how aviation stakeholders monitor, manage, and optimize their portfolios.
With Asset Watch, users can configure aircraft portfolios and receive real-time updates on their flight and ground activity. The tool integrates aircraft utilization trends, CO₂ emissions benchmarking, maintenance events and flights, ensuring a holistic understanding of asset operations and risk.
The tool offers different benefits to a variety of key stakeholders, including:
Lessors: Gain precise insights into fleet performance and operator compliance, enabling smarter lease negotiations and asset placement strategies.
Banks: Monitor aviation investments with transparency, assessing asset utilization and condition for informed decision-making.
Insurers: Access real-time data on aircraft cycles, locations, and routes, streamlining underwriting processes and risk evaluations.
Aftermarket Service Providers: Anticipate maintenance demand and trends using detailed aircraft utilization metrics.
Airlines: Benchmark fleet performance against competitors and align with sustainability goals through advanced CO₂ emission analytics.
Jeremy Bowen, CEO of Cirium, said “Asset Watch represents a significant leap forward in aviation asset management. By providing stakeholders with actionable insights and a real-time pulse on their investments, we’re not only empowering better decision-making but also driving the industry towards greater transparency and efficiency,”
The tool is designed to offer quick insights, enabling aviation finance professionals to safeguard investments, meet regulatory requirements, and optimize their strategic planning processes. It makes workflows more efficient and offers unparalleled accuracy and actionable intelligence.
This announcement launching the new Asset Watch tool underscores Cirium’s commitment to delivering solutions that address the dynamic needs of the aviation sector while advancing sustainability and operational efficiency in the industry.
Find out more about Cirium’s Asset Watch and access a demonstration video of the tool.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Thomas Kaplan, Senior Valuations Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
The decade of the 2010s saw tremendous growth of the leased fleet size (~88% in total), but also the entrance of many new operating lessors, leading to fragmentation of the fleet. In 2010, two lessors, GECAS and ILFC accounted for nearly 40% of the leased fleet. By the end of the decade, eight lessors would share the 40%. The number of managers classified as operating lessors with at least one aircraft in service or stored increased from 143 to 186. 90% of the leased fleet went from being shared amongst 41 lessors to 63.
The pandemic put the brakes on lessor trading as aircraft values fell and later rising interest rates increased lessor cost of capital. With defaulting lessees and geopolitical shifts, the trend reversed towards more consolidation, at least on the level of the largest lessors. The chart below tracks consolidation of the lessor fleet. The difference between the green and black line shows the fragmentation and growth trend of the 2010’s. The red line, representing today’s fleet, is above the black line but the shift is mostly noticeable for the largest lessors. The largest consolidation that can be spotted from the chart intercepting the y-axis is AerCap’s 2021 acquisition of GECAS. However, for half a decade of trend, consolidation has not moved very quickly, particularly compared to the speed of change observed in the previous decade.
Lessor Fleet Distribution Over Time
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, Narrowbody and Widebody Jets, Commercial usage, excluding unconfirmed lessors. Note: Avolonacquisition of Castlelake portfolio accounted for in February 2025 data.
The yellow line, which is barely visible due to its overlap with today’s fleet, represents the picture at the very start of 2024. The past 13 months had a large “consolidation” event in the Avolon acquisition of a 106 aircraft portfolio from Castlelake. While it is significant in rearranging the size rankings of the two lessors in question, it does not do much to change the landscape. DAE Capital’s planned acquisition of Nordic Aviation Capital is a very significant consolidation event, but mostly involving regional aircraft so does not affect this analysis which focuses on narrowbody and widebody jets.
New entrant activity continued at a slow pace to dampen the consolidation trend. IAT Leasing took out an advertisement at Dublin Airport to catch the eye of those flying in to attend the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers conference in January 2025. They now have nine aircraft on lease including three A330-200s. Notable new entrants from earlier in the decade which have managed to grow beyond a 40 aircraft portfolio include AviLease, SKY Leasing, Griffin Global Asset Management and Vmo Aircraft Leasing. Gaining scale has been challenging, however, with only Avilease breaching the 100-jet mark following its 2023 acquisition of Standard Chartered’s aircraft leasing business.
Lessor fleet distribution change since 2024 has been minimal:
Will the consolidation trend pick up again in 2025? Cirium reported in an interview that Stratos chief Gary Fitzgerald, who contributed to the consolidation trend in 2023 with the acquisition of Magi Partners, believes the industry would benefit from consolidation as some leasing platforms have underperformed. Carlyle Aviation Partners’ Robert Korn also suggested that the recent strength of the US dollar should make for a good exit opportunity for some lessors. Carlyle was a driver of consolidation as well with its 2021 ACMK acquisition. Economies of scale do exist for aircraft leasing to a certain extent, which should favour some consolidation. Perhaps the lessors with the lowest cost of funding will take the opportunity to grow their scale – if they find a lessor willing to sell. While there are good reasons for consolidation to occur, it remains to be seen if conditions will finally warm to allow it.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Herman Tse, Valuations Manager, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
On 1 February 2025, the Trump administration announced three Executive Orders that will significantly affect tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. The modifications regarding tariffs on goods from China and Hong Kong took effect on 4 February while those related to Canadian and Mexican imports are set to be paused until March 2025. Although similar measures were first introduced in 2018 during Trump’s first term as President, the 2025 tariffs are anticipated to exert a more substantial impact on the air cargo sector due to their broader scope.
With these stringent tariffs in place, what are the implications for the aviation market, particularly in the air cargo sector and freighters?
When the initial tariffs on steel and aluminium imports were implemented in March 2018, followed by several rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods, air cargo demand began to slow. While full-year air cargo demand growth in 2018 remained positive at 3.5%, it was significantly lower than the 9.0% and 9.8% seen in 2017 and 2016, respectively. In 2019, air cargo demand subsequently declined by 3.9%.
The new tariffs introduced in 2025 include a “de minimis” provision, which applies to packages valued under $800. This provision, previously exempted in 2018, has been extensively utilised by online retail giants from China, such as Shein and Temu, enabling them to offer goods at remarkably low prices and contributing to their growing popularity. In 2023, approximately 30% of U.S. online shoppers reported purchasing items from China. While specific data on the percentage of total imports falling under the de minimis threshold is not readily available, it is estimated that a significant portion of low value e-commerce shipments will be affected by these new tariffs.
Despite the decline in air cargo demand in 2019, the global freighter fleet experienced growth. According to Cirium data, the number of widebody and narrowbody freighters in service increased by 4% and 5% respectively in 2019, while their average daily utilisation rose by 2% and 5%. This suggests that the tariffs imposed in 2018 did not significantly hinder freighter operations. In fact, the rising demand for domestic consumption in both China and the U.S. may have positively influenced narrowbody freighters. This trend is evidenced by global capacity (available cargo ton kilometres), which recorded consistent year-on-year monthly increases throughout 2019, culminating in a moderate 2.1% rise for the full year.
However, the combination of declining demand and increasing supply resulted in a 2.6% decrease in load factor, negatively impacting the profitability of freighter operators, particularly in less efficient international operations. The data indicates that the tariffs enacted in 2018 introduced some challenges, underscoring the complex dynamics of the global trade environment, but there were not insurmountable.
The Fleet of Narrowbody and Widebody Freighters
Source: Cirium Core
The effectiveness of the new tariffs in significantly reducing the US deficit and improving economic conditions remains uncertain. However, one certainty is that air cargo demand may be expected to decline. The extent of this decline will depend on the scope and coverage of the tariffs. Despite the potential short-term turbulence in specific markets, such as China and the US, demand for freighters seems unlikely to be significantly affected. Air cargo demand is projected to continue growing in the long term. However, small widebody freighter operators with a focus on the China-US market may face challenges if the tariffs are prolonged. These operators, with their smaller fleet sizes, might struggle financially under extended tariff implementations.
Many questions remain as a consequence of early policy initiatives from the new US administration, but it is clear that the aviation market will need to closely monitor developments and adapt accordingly to maintain efficiency and competitiveness in a rapidly evolving geo-political environment.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
As 2025 opened, the team at Cirium Ascend Consultancy brought together its collective intelligence and insight to estimate how many commercial passenger jets Airbus and Boeing would deliver to customers in 2025 and beyond. Based upon our Cirium Fleet Forecast, plus many years of collective experience, we concluded that Airbus could ship as many as 900 units whilst Boeing might show a strong recovery this year to deliver around 550 passenger aircraft amongst an overall total of 610 commercial jets.
Projecting annual deliveries has become increasingly difficult over the past few years, driven initially by the demand uncertainty induced in the early days of the pandemic but then exacerbated more recently by supply-side uncertainty arising from supply-chain delays and other disruptions at the airframe OEMs. Prime amongst those supply-chain delays have been the engine OEMs. Most specifically, issues within the new-generation CFM Leap and Pratt & Whitney PW1000G programmes have reportedly paced single-aisle deliveries (along of course with Boeing’s own self-induced 737 Max challenges) have caused fewer than expected deliveries from both OEMs.
As a consequence, Airbus delivered 674 single-aisle aircraft last year (599 A320 family and 75 A220s) and Boeing managed only 258. Within our projection of 2025 deliveries, we include an expectation of around 680 A320 family, 100 A220 and 450 737 Max. If these forecasts are to be achieved, and by the way our projections require Airbus to improve 2025 output by around 20% over 2024 and Boeing to increase by 80%, the respective supply chains become pivotal. Both GE and RTX (P&W) have made forward-looking statements in the past 10 days, so we can potentially use those to work out if our projections are credible.
GE noted that it delivered 1,407 Leap engines and expects to increase production by between 15% and 20% in 2025. RTX itself was silent on the number of engines produced but did say it expected to increase large commercial engine output by around 14% whilst at the same time seeing a “modest tilt towards more installs”, indicating airframe OEMs may expect to see slightly more of the 2025 output than they did in 2024. What do these numbers mean?
If GE achieves the mid-point of its planned increase, that would imply around 1,650 engine deliveries in 2025. If we assume that around 20% of these are spare engines, higher than our typical spares assumption but maybe consistent with market demand given Leap is just now starting to see higher volume of first shop visit, then that would yield around 690 shipsets for airframe OEM installation.
At P&W it is a little harder, but we saw around 350 Airbus aircraft deliveries with PW1000G engines in 2024, equating to 700 installed engines. If we assume spares were around 20%, then that implies 840 total engine deliveries last year. Increase by 14% takes us to around 960. Then assume 15% spares this year and we have around 830 engines or 415 installed shipsets.
The overall total of 1,105 engine shipsets is low when compared to the 1,230 deliveries projected above. Of course, Boeing started 2025 with more than 100 737 Max in inventory, including 34 which have already been delivered this year and another 52 737-8/9 variants which almost certainly will be. Those bring the 1,105 total to 1,190, but that is still some 40 aircraft lower than our demand-driven projections. Max volumes could increase further if the 737-7 is certificated this year, with 27 of those in inventory. But that remains highly uncertain for now.
In summary, most recent outlook statements by engine OEMs do suggest that our 2025 delivery projections have downside risk. Last year, we opened with an expectation of more than 1,500 deliveries between Airbus and Boeing, a projection that was iteratively reduced through the year until we arrived at the final much lower totals. It does seem that we may see a similar experience this year, albeit the shortfall looks potentially much smaller given the numbers above.
Finally and with all this in mind, how does January look? I am writing this on the final day of the month and as we stand today (and recognising data lag), initial experience doesn’t look promising. Cirium’s fleet researchers have to date captured details of only two A220, 15 A320 family and 38 737 Max deliveries in January 2025. The first month of the year always features low delivery volumes. Airbus’s January A320 output has ranged between 15 and 32 on an annual basis since 2018, but last year it shipped 26 aircraft so 2025 looks to be lagging that. Boeing typically does a bit better in January and, as already noted, this month’s total to date of 38 does include a vast majority of aircraft which flew for the first time last year or earlier.
Hence, January doesn’t tell us too much other than it is going to be another challenging year both for OEMs and for those of us who love to make short-term forecasts.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
In the previous Cirium Ascend Consultancy Team Perspective, I looked at some examples of airline order backlogs, and how they can easily change over time, see deferrals, or even disappear altogether. This week, I look at the opposite viewpoint. In other words, which airlines are likely to place additional orders in the near future? Have these carriers played it clever, exhibiting sound fleet management, or have they missed the boat in terms of securing fuel-efficient next generation replacements?
Again, all fleet figures refer to single-aisle and twin-aisle passenger aircraft, both in service and stored, operated by airlines.
Current Order Status
The concept of being ‘underordered’ is not that simple. Backlog-to-fleet ratio is a good measure, and if this is above 1.0, clearly the airline is either planning to grow rapidly, or it plans to replace all its current fleet. If the ratio is 0.4 or 0.5, this could well be sufficient for medium-term planning. Variables include market growth rate, the age distribution of the current fleet, as well as the competitive position of the airline. It is necessary to consider the airline group, rather than individual operators or brands, to get the full picture.
The chart below includes airlines or airline groups that have at least 100 aircraft in service today, and have backlog-to-fleet ratios below 0.4. The average age of the current fleet varies widely, between 8-16 years.
Eight of the 22 airlines shown are major network carriers in North America and Europe. They are in slow-growing mature markets, generally own rather than lease their fleets, and also tend to keep aircraft until final removal from service and retirement. Within these, all but Alaska Airlines have average fleet ages above 12 years. Delta and American have the oldest fleets, at 15.5 and 13.8 years respectively. Even allowing for slower growth and older retirement policy, clearly some of these, particularly Air France/KLM Group and IAG, could readily use additional new-generation aircraft. These would cut fuel costs and help airlines reduce their emissions in-line with commitments to Net Zero.
ANA is in a similar situation, with just 59 aircraft on order, and a backlog-to-fleet ratio of just 0.24. However, it does have a younger fleet age profile.
Ryanair has comparatively few aircraft on backlog. After taking delivery of its remaining 38 737 Max 8-200s, it has a backlog of 150 Max 10s. However, in its investor update, it does state it has 300 Max 10 aircraft on order, implying its Letter of Intent (LoI) for another 150 units is almost certainly to be converted to a firm order soon.
Several airlines in Latin America have smaller backlogs at present. However, many in the region have gone through restructuring process, and are traditionally reliant on leasing, so it may be expected some of their shortfall in orders will be met from lessor backlogs.
What About China?
The lack of backlog for Chinese airlines is very apparent. This is a market that grew at 13.3% per annum between 2009 and 2019, and took delivery of 2,900 jets in the decade. Fleets Analyzer data shows just 550 Airbus and Boeing aircraft on order for Chinese airlines today, plus another 475 C919s. Even including the COMAC aircraft, this gives a backlog-to-fleet of just 0.25.
However, there are 1,100 Airbus and Boeing aircraft recorded as being on order for ‘unannounced commercial customers’. Several hundred of these are likely to be for Chinese airlines and leasing companies. The actual destination of these often only becomes apparent at delivery. At this point Boeing unveils ‘unidentified customers identified at delivery’. For example, in its December 2024 data Boeing listed three aircraft delivered to Chinese airlines that were ordered in 2014 and 2016, having lain as unannounced customers for a decade!
In summary, the real backlog for Chinese airlines is higher than 1,025 units, but even so, the country’s airlines will require more aircraft. The obvious conclusion is that they will rely on COMAC to fill the gap, in order to obtain the 400 new aircraft per annum that are called for in the latest Cirium Fleet Forecast.
Lessor Backlog
Chinese operating lessors currently have 495 C919s on order that are not allocated to a specific airline. This highlights an alternative source of new aircraft for airlines that are late to the current order cycle. There are just over 1,400 Airbus and Boeing aircraft on order with lessors with unknown lessees. Obviously some of these will already have been placed with airlines, but they have not been made public yet. Thus it is possible that some of the airlines highlighted as being ‘underordered’ may already have sourced some additional aircraft from the lessor backlog.
For any of the airlines with low backlog-to-fleet ratios that are looking to acquire new aircraft via lessors, they will still have to get in line for a delivery slot. The A320neo and 737 Max families are now sold-out for several years, but even unplaced lessor slots are limited in the next two years as shown in the slide.
Earlier, we highlighted how some airlines have placed huge orders that don’t always come to 100% fruition, for multiple reasons. However, there are currently several large airlines or airline groups that could be considered to be underordered, especially considering the long lead-times required from an order placed in 2025 to delivery.
The first available OEM slots for 737 Max and A320neo family types, as well as twin-aisle 787s and A350s, are now likely to be in the early 2030s, so airlines may have to consider alternative sources of supply. One is via lessors, but how many of their 1,400 unplaced aircraft are really available? There is some earlier OEM availability on the A220 and A330neo, so we may see more interest in these types. It also seems clear that China will look towards the C919 programme to help fill its lack of backlog for Airbus and Boeing single-aisles.
History teaches us that opportunities sometimes arise to reallocate aircraft from airlines that have ordered too many aircraft, or those that find themselves in financial problems. Price escalation is also an issue for some orders placed many years ago, such that an airline may seek to renegotiate its order backlog.
However, deals such as these cannot be done without the full agreement of the aircraft manufacturers themselves, as they retain ownership of the delivery slots. Boeing has recently undertaken a major exercise to find homes for 737 Max aircraft that were originally destined for China. Many have been delivered to India, helping that fast-growing market obtain earlier capacity. In the past, well-capitalised airlines in the US and Europe have obtained slots that have been deferred by airlines during economic downturns. Might we see nearer-term slots at overordered airlines in Southeast Asia become available, or even backlogs transferred to lessors?
In conclusion, some airlines may wish they had placed orders earlier in the post-Covid recovery cycle, but there are always ways that enable a win-win for both airframer and airline when the latter is seen as a ‘strategic customer’.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Max Kingsley-Jones, Head of Advisory, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
Delivery volume for the mainline commercial aircraft types in 2024 was down over 10% year-on-year, amid production issues that blighted Boeing from early January. A deeper dive into the 2024 numbers in context with recent years highlights how OEM market share was impacted. It is also interesting to scrutinise how the geographical distribution of shipments compared last year, and how engine OEM delivery share has been evolving on the A320 family.
Cirium data shows that a total of 1,094 Airbus and Boeing commercial passenger and freighter aircraft were delivered in 2024 (to airline and financial customers), compared with 1,233 in 2023. At the start of last year, our expectations were that the two OEMs’ combined shipment volume could be up 20% above 2023 (i.e. ~1,500 aircraft). Airbus had originally intended to deliver 800 aircraft but in June reduced its forecast to 770 amid ongoing supply-chain snags. Toulouse ultimately achieved a total of 766 deliveries (761 if non-commercial variants and customers are excluded).
Boeing refrained from providing any delivery guidance throughout 2024 as it grappled first with the repercussions on its production rate of the Alaska 737 Max accident and subsequently the machinists’ strike. In the end, Boeing shipped 333 commercial aircraft, a third less than 2023. As the chart below shows, Boeing’s share of deliveries versus Airbus plummeted last year to only 30% – its lowest since the 2019-2020 period when Max deliveries were suspended.
Ahead of any OEM guidance for 2025, Cirium is projecting deliveries will reach the 1,500-mark originally expected in 2024. Airbus could see its deliveries rise by up to 15% or more, while Boeing is expected to recover its shipments volume and move back towards a share of around 40%. But much will depend on supply-chain and regulatory progress this year.
Airbus/Boeing Commercial Aircraft Deliveries and Market Share – 2018-2025*
Source: Cirium Core; note: passenger/freighter deliveries to commercial operators/financial institutions; *2025F is Cirium estimate prior to any OEM guidance
From a geographical perspective, airlines across the entire Asia-Pacific region took the largest number of deliveries in 2024 (384 aircraft), although with China split out, Europe is elevated to the top slot with 317 shipments.
The chart below illustrates the total 2024 volumes by region and the share they accounted for of each OEM’s deliveries. European airlines took the largest chunk of Airbus’s deliveries, while North America was the biggest market for Boeing (29% of its shipments). The revival of 737 Max deliveries to China in 2024 after an almost five-year hiatus ensured Boeing’s volumes to this crucial market made a solid return. The 737 accounted for 47 of the US OEM’s 53 shipments to China last year, with the total representing a fifth of all Boeing’s 2024 deliveries.
Airbus/Boeing 2024 Delivery Volume and Share by Region
Source: Cirium Core; note: passenger/freighter deliveries to airline operators only
Pratt & Whitney has been under intense pressure as it sought to tackle the well-documented GTF issues. CFM has also had to address issues which have impacted production. So it is interesting to assess how the two rivals’ share of the A320 market has been evolving since before Covid when deliveries of the GTF/A320neo were still in their early days.
A320 Family Deliveries by Engine OEM and Market Share – 2018-2024
Source: Cirium Core; note: deliveries to commercial operators/financial institutions
Although A320neo family deliveries increased 5% last year, the number powered by the PW1100G actually reduced slightly, while CFM’s share rose significantly. As shown in the chart, engine OEM delivery share shifted from parity in 2023 to CFM taking a 54% last year. 2023 marked the high-/water mark for P&W’s share of A320 deliveries in recent times.
In overall terms, P&W’s share versus CFM of single-aisle aircraft deliveries rose in 2024 to 37%, from 34% in 2023, as CFM volumes were affected by declining 737 Max shipments and P&W saw more A220 deliveries. P&W also powered an additional 47 commercial deliveries in the regional jet sector last year – the PW1900G-powered E-Jet E2.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Sara Dhariwal, Senior Aviation Analyst, Lead Appraiser – Helicopters & AAM, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
The year 2024 was a mixed bag for the Advanced Air Mobility industry. Whilst some great advances were made by China’s EHang, the European OEMs faced challenges leading to the first high profile insolvency filings. To date, the Cirium team has registered order commitments for 26 different eVTOL OEMs. There are undoubtedly more out there. Consolidation among the vast number of competing companies appears inevitable, as they strive to position themselves as a frontrunner to operate in civil capacity.
Data coverage includes:
eVTOLs – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)
The eVTOL – UAM sector has generated the most activity in the market both in terms of the number of aircraft in development, and commitments received to date. Since the last update in October 2024, the sector has attracted 711 new order commitments. The space now has a total of just under 12,000 order commitments captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer. Eve Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to lead the sector with 2,950 and 1,552 commitments respectively.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 31st December 2024. *Volocopter filed for insolvency 26th December 2024
The global market for eVTOLs shows a varied regional distribution. Between the last update in October 2024 and 31st December 2024, APAC surpassed North America as the region with the most orders at a total of 3,914 taking a 32% share.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 31st December 2024
European eVTOL OEMs Face Challenges
Early 2024, the eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) industry gained momentum when Chinese company EHang reported successful completion of the first series of passenger carrying commercial demonstration flights by its EH-216S pilotless electric aircraft. The aircraft achieved certification by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), in quarter four of 2023. The company continued to make progress throughout the year and in November 2024, the OEM reported it had also completed debut passenger flights in Thailand.
Cirium Fleets Analyzer has registered 42 deliveries of the EH216 – 27 to Wencheng County Transportation Development Group, ten to Xishan Tourism and five to Shenzen Boling Holding Group – all for Sightseeing/Tourist usage.
Meanwhile, the European eVTOL industry faced some turbulence primarily linked to certification and funding challenges –
Volocopter – In June 2023, German-based Volocopter, along with Paris Airport operator Groupe ADP and the French Civil Aviation Authority, had announced their plan to offer eVTOL services to the general public during the 2024 Summer Olympics. It would make Paris the first European city to embrace this novel mode of transportation and was greatly anticipated right up until the event. However, certification issues hindered the plans, resulting in only demonstration flights taking place.
In a major blow, Volocopter filed for insolvency proceedings in Germany on December 26, 2024.
Rolls Royce – In November 2023, renowned UK-based engine OEM Rolls-Royce had announced its electric flight division was up for sale, as the company prioritized improving profits in its established jet engine business. A year later, in October 2024, Rolls-Royce declared the closure of its electrical business after failing to secure a buyer.
Vertical Aerospace – Following the divestment of Rolls-Royce’s electric flight division, UK-based Vertical Aerospace faced the challenge of finding a new engine partner. Despite this setback, the company remains determined and insists that they are on track, with ambitions remaining high. As reported on Cirium Dashboard in November 2024, under a new plan dubbed ‘Flightpath 2030’, Vertical intends to deliver at least 150 aircraft to customers by 2029 and break even in cash terms in 2030.
The OEM reportedly reached a rescue deal in 2024, with its biggest creditor, US-based Mudrick Capital, obtaining a 70% stake in the business.
At the start of January 2025, Vertical Aerospace announced it had become “the second company in the world” to achieve piloted thrustborne flight maneuvers with a full-scale vectored thrust eVTOL aircraft.
Lilium – Lilium stood out among eVTOL OEMs for debuting on US stock exchanges after merging with special purpose acquisition companies (SPAC), also known as “blank check companies.”
The OEM secured substantial commitments and funding, with some reports claiming a valuation at $3.3 billion at its peak. In July 2024, the OEM announced one of the largest commitments in the eVTOL sector—an agreement with Saudia Group in July 2024 to acquire up to 100 eVTOLs.
However, in November 2024, following an unsuccessful bid to secure a further loan of EUR100 million from the German Government, Lilium’s principal German subsidiaries applied for self-administration proceedings. On Christmas Eve 2024, the OEM announced they had secured a buyer by a little-known entity called the Mobile Uplift Consortium, reportedly from Europe and North America. This acquisition preserves almost 80% of Lilium’s workforce.
While setbacks and challenges have plagued European eVTOL manufacturers, the industry as a whole continues to evolve.
However, undoubtedly the eVTOL industry will continue to face significant hurdles primarily relating to certification and funding, but also market positioning and scale of manufacturing.
In addition, many eVTOL OEMs rely heavily on government funding, which could be affected by geopolitical uncertainty as countries prioritize higher budgets for defense, potentially impacting incentives for electric aircraft.
The BBC raised the following question in an article published 15th November: “Given all the uncertainty and expense, you may wonder why investors put money into new electric aircraft in the first place”. Bjorn Fehrm, with a background in aeronautical engineering and ex-combat pilot for the Swedish Air Force, replied: “No one wanted to miss out on the next Tesla.”
Business Electric – Multi-Engine
In the business electric sector, there was a little less turbulence.
Electra’s EL-2 Goldfinch hybrid-electric short takeoff and landing (eSTOL) marked the first flight of an electric aircraft with a pilot onboard at NASA’s Langley Research Centre in July 2024. The eSTOL has received almost 1,350 order commitments, including from notable clients like the helicopter lessor Bristow Group. However, the identities of the majority of the source of order commitments remain undisclosed.
Aura Aero’s ERA have the second most order commitments at a total of 570. The OEM signed a co-operation agreement with Airbus Protect in May 2024. According to the OEM’s press release, by committing to the PAC, “Aura Aero will receive technical advice services from EASA, whilst helping to draft the generic elements to set the foundations of the future formal product certification basis”.
Meanwhile, Sweden’s Heart Aerospace unveiled its first full-scale X1 demonstrator of the company’s regional 30-passenger ES-30 aircraft and will fly this in 2025. The ES-30design has been revised into a hybrid-electric aircraft. The ES-30 has just over 530 order commitments.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 31st December 2024
The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us.
London, 14 January 2025: Cirium Ascend Consultancy, part of the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, Cirium, has once again landed Airline Economics’ prestigious title of ‘Appraiser of the Year’ at an award ceremony last night.
This marks the tenth win for Cirium Ascend Consultancy, demonstrating its unparalleled expertise within aviation consultancy and underlining its unwavering commitment to excellence, transparency and accuracy.
The annual award was presented to Rob Morris, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, at the Airline Economics Aviation 100 Global Leaders Awards 2025 in Dublin, Ireland, which celebrates the best companies, individuals and transactions in the aviation finance and leasing sector.
2025’s landmark win makes it the first time a single firm has won the title 10 times, recognising Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s invaluable insights that have shaped the strategies of key players in the industry.
Voters of this year’s award praised Cirium’s accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals that have provided the valuations and analysis needed to understand market outlook, evaluate risks, and identify opportunities.
Rob Morris, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “As we start 2025, we are humbled to have been named ‘Appraiser of the Year’ for the tenth time, reaching an impressive milestone in our history. Winning this prestigious accolade not only symbolises the trust and confidence our industry has in us, but is a tribute to the Ascend Consultancy team’s dedication and commitment throughout 2024. We have continued to strive for excellence, offering clients independent and transparent insights in a volatile year for OEMs, lessors, and the wider supply chain.”
Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s contributions extend beyond appraisals, encompassing various aspects of aviation analytics such as risk management, asset tracking, and sustainability evaluations. The firm’s innovative solutions, including CO2 emissions benchmarking and fuel consumption analysis, reflect its commitment to supporting the industry’s transition towards a more sustainable future.
With worldwide teams, and the industry’s largest team of ISTAT/ASA certified appraisers, Cirium Ascend Consultancy is poised to further drive industry analysis and improvement in 2025.
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As we commence 2025, the story is that every airline is desperate for new aircraft to meet growth or to replace older aircraft, or both. Many have very ambitious expansion plans. It seems an opportune moment, then, to consider how often airlines achieve goals for rapid expansion, and the factors that might help realise their dreams.
For this analysis, the fleet and backlog data includes passenger single-aisles and twin-aisles, from all manufacturers.
The airlines with the largest backlogs today are shown below, and then contrasted with the position a decade ago.
They are a mixture of the largest carriers, with a higher share of replacement demand, and airlines in fast-growing developing countries.
As at the end of 2024, there were 13,800 aircraft on order for airlines, compared to a total fleet of 23,600 passenger aircraft. Therefore the backlog-to-fleet ratio is around 0.58:1. Note that the order total includes just over 1,000 aircraft that are for unannounced airline customers, many of which are likely destined for Chinese carriers and lessors. Ten years ago, the fleet stood at 17,300, with a firm backlog of 10,300 aircraft. The ratio was therefore almost identical to today, at 0.59:1.
It is obvious that most of these airlines have backlog-to-fleet ratios well above the industry average, with several well above one. Thus, they have sufficient aircraft on order to replace the entire fleet in service today, or to support huge growth. Three of the listed carriers are based in India, which Cirium Ascend Consultancy expects to be the fastest growing market over the next 10-20 years, as discussed in previous thought leadership. Three are the major Chinese carriers, who have relatively small announced backlogs. The four largest US airlines are present, with quite modest backlog-to-fleet ratios between 0.28 and 0.69, plus low-cost carrier (LCC) Frontier Airlines, with a ratio of 1.19.
Wizz Air Group has the most ambitious plans, with a backlog-to-fleet ratio of 1.34.
Europe is represented by the three major LCCs, plus the Lufthansa Group. Within these, Wizz Air Group has the most ambitious plans, with a backlog-to-fleet ratio of 1.34. In contrast, Ryanair has a relatively small backlog, and is planning on slower growth over the next few years. Turkish Airlines, including its subsidiary Ajet, has the seventh largest backlog.
There are two Middle East carriers in the ranking. These are Emirates, and Saudia Group (including its LCC subsidiary Flyadeal). Although outside the top 20, the combined order backlogs for Qatar Airways, Riyadh Air, Flydubai, Air Arabia, Etihad and Flynas now amount to nearly 700 aircraft, leading to concerns about future overcapacity in the region.
The remaining three carriers are in Southeast Asia, and are primarily seen as LCCs. Their order backlogs have largely been in place since before Covid, and have seen several deferrals and order restructurings.
A review of these airlines and the history of the Gulf connector airlines may be useful to understand the context of airline ‘mega-orders’ and the nature of rapidly-growing markets.
The situation a decade ago was not altogether different to today. IndiGo is there, and has seen its fleet more than quadruple since 2014, from 88 to 382 aircraft. The four US Majors were listed, as were two of the Chinese ‘Big 3’, the Lufthansa Group, and Turkish Airlines. There were two airlines in Latin America, not represented today. This market has seen considerable upheaval and airline bankruptcies during Covid.
What stands out is Lion Air and AirAsia Groups had the largest backlog in 2014, in terms of aircraft units. They had backlog-to-fleet ratios of 3.54 and 2.03 respectively, in anticipation of huge market growth. Both companies, but especially AirAsia had plans to grow their brands across the region, using JVs or minority stakes in multiple countries.
The second highest ratio was Norwegian, which had similar ambition to break out of Norway to expand across Europe, and to launch long-haul services.
It is well-documented how the latter plan brought the airline down, but it also struggled to compete with the bigger players.
The three Gulf carriers were all present in the table in 2014. At the time, Emirates, Qatar and Etihad had a combined fleet of 450 aircraft, with 685 on backlog. Flydubai, since merged into the Emirates Group added a fleet of 88, with 127 on order. Thus, the combined backlog-to-fleet ratio was around 1.5, signifying how each carrier aimed to continue growing rapidly.
Case Study – Emirates
Emirates had a fleet of 219 passenger aircraft in 2014, being easily the largest of the Middle East airlines. It had grown rapidly, and its hub at Dubai International Airport (DXB) was seen as becoming full around 2015-2020. Dubai had announced plans for a massive new airport, now known as Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International (DWC) in 2005. Construction started in 2007, with the first freight service landing in 2010, and the passenger terminal in 2013.
The original DWC plan envisaged it becoming the hub for Emirates by 2018, with an eventual capacity of 150 million passengers and six runways.
This was to support plans to grow the airline to a fleet of 500-600 aircraft.
Things changed in 2011, however. It was decided to expand DXB to handle 90 million passengers. DWC growth was slowed, with it set to support Emirates switching its hub around 2025 instead. DXB handled 87 million passengers in 2023, and will exceed 100 million in 2025. However, DWC expansion is back on the rails, with the June 2024 announcement that it will replace the city’s existing gateway by 2034. All operations will move to the new airport, with plans for passenger facilities capable of handling 260 million passengers a year.
So, what has all this meant for Emirates and its competitors? The airline’s fleet has hardly grown since 2015, after having trebled in the preceding 10 years. Covid-19 had a major impact, with Emirates relying on long-haul international traffic. Airframer issues have impacted its plans too, with Airbus unwilling to further develop the A380, and Boeing suffering interminable delays on the 777X. It has been able to expand capacity somewhat, by use of larger aircraft.
Airlines often plan on the basis of growing faster than the market average. Airline A may plan on gaining market share, or capturing more transfer traffic. However, so might Airline B and Airline C. The Middle East has not seen rapid GDP growth over the past decade, and remains geo-politically unstable. However, collectively, airlines were successful in building transfer hubs and also stimulating some local traffic and inbound tourist visitors. The success of Dubai led to Qatar and Abu Dhabi aiming to replicate this, with Bahrain and Oman looking to expand too. Today, Saudi Arabia is investing heavily in promoting itself and its airlines seek to expand rapidly.
Back in 2013, as well as Emirates’ plan to double its fleet, Etihad wanted to triple its fleet by 2026, and Qatar was looking ahead to the 2022 World Cup. LCC competition was expanding from Air Arabia, and locally Flydubai was independent of Emirates.
Chart 4: Middle East Airline Fleet Expansion 2014-2024
Perhaps the biggest threat was to come from Turkish Airlines. It has a huge home market, offers shorter elapsed times from Europe to much of Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and was building airport capacity. Turkish Airlines had a fleet of 231 aircraft in 2013, and had just placed orders for 212 new aircraft. Its long-term plan was a fleet of 421 aircraft in 2021. It has largely achieved this. Despite some setbacks, it had a fleet of 440 by January 2024, when it outlined a Group plan to reach 950 aircraft by 2033.
Emirates has also seen growing competition from Indian and Chinese carriers on the Europe-Asia market, but has perhaps benefitted from capacity reductions from other Asian airlines, such as Thai, Malaysian, and Garuda.
This example shows how much can change in 10 years. External shocks and local economic upsets have played a part, but competition with other hubs, with other existing airlines, and the entry of new LCCs have all affected growth plans, with the result that many aircraft on order in 2013-14 have never been delivered. Plans must adapt, and Emirates has certainly been successful in doing this, including co-ordinating better with Flydubai. The Emirates Group delivered a solid profit in 2024, in contrast to many Middle East airlines, showing that rapid growth and shiny new planes do not necessarily go hand-in-hand with market success.
In the second part of this Team Perspective, we will discuss Southeast Asia, and consider what other factors influence order backlog developments.
Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
The Virgin Australia Regional Airlines (VARA) order for eight Embraer E190-E2s in August represents a new turn in the Australian mining Fly-In Fly-Out (FIFO) market. For decades this market has relied on the use of older, used aircraft for low utilisation operations. These new aircraft will be used to replace its remaining Fokker 100s.
Western Australia is a key region for mineral extraction (including iron ore, nickel-copper and gold) and there are numerous mining sites in the outback, which rely on air connections to fly workers in and out, usually to Perth. An example is Christmas Creek Mine, which operates a Fokker 100 daily on a 1 hour 40min flight from and to Perth. Airstrips can have paved or unpaved runways with usually just an apron and minimal facilities.
These FIFO flights mainly use regional jets, with some Airbus A319/A320 and De Havilland Canada Dash 8 operations as well.
Large Passenger Regional Jet Fleet in Australia
Source: Cirium Core
The large-sized regional jet fleet in Australia has grown from around 80 a decade ago to over 100 today. They are used on a mix of scheduled services and regular FIFO charter contracts. The Fokker 100 has been the core of this fleet, operated by Alliance Airlines, Network Aviation as well as VARA. The fleet peaked at 56 during 2018 but is down to 43 now., mainly as VARA has reduced its fleet from 21 aircraft to seven. Network Aviation, owned by Qantas and operating as QantasLink on scheduled and charter routes, operates 14, alongside Airbuses and one E190.
Indeed, Australia has become an important market for used E190s.
Alliance, which uses 21 Fokker 100s and 10 Fokker 70s, has been active in building its E190 fleet, having acquired 67, first with ex American and Copa aircraft. It is in the process of taking 30 ex-JetBlue aircraft by mid-2026 from AerCap. Not all of these will enter service, as it has been selling some surplus airframes and engine cores, after harvesting for engines and spare parts. Alliance currently has 30 in service and operates both FIFO and for QantasLink, with Qantas having a part share in the carrier.
National Jet Express has also expanded its E190 fleet to seven, having replaced its BAe 146s.
The Australian market continues to provide opportunities for more E190s as Fokker 70/100 replacements, while the introduction of the E190-E2 may indicate a good long-term future for newer generation aircraft too.
Richard Evans, Senior Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
Most of the largest airlines have reported their quarter three (Q3) results over the past few weeks. These numbers are, by definition, backward looking, but the commentary around the press releases is usually informative about the market environment in general, with some useful data on the near-term outlook.
A few words of explanation about the below chart. The airlines listed are the 10 largest in each region, by revenue, that issue quarterly or bi-annual results in a timely manner. The figures are operating margin (EBIT), with the colours showing the change in relation to the same period in 2023. At the bottom, there is a simple arithmetic average of the 10 airlines’ results, with the colour giving a rough guide to how healthy this profit level is. It is worth remembering that, historically, airlines have exhibited very slim profit margins. According to IATA, the best year for airline profits was 2015, with an operating margin of 8.5%. It forecasts 2024 to achieve 6% margin.
Latest Airline Financial Results Show a Mixed Picture
Source: Airline announcements, Cirium Core, Cirium Ascend Consultancy analysis. * unweighted Airlines: Green = better than same period last year, Red = worse, Amber = within +/- 1%. Regional averages: Green = >7%, Amber = 1-7%, Red = <1% or loss making
At first glance, the chart looks poor, with the majority of airlines being ‘red’. Several major airlines mentioned increased costs as being a contributory factor. In Asia, Singapore Airlines reminded that 2023 was an exceptional year, being the year of ‘rebound’ post-Covid, marked by very high passenger yields.
The US market generally saw lower margins than elsewhere, but there were major contrasts within the results.
In particular, the low-cost airlines struggled, with overcapacity and resultant yield pressures generally.
This trend has been brought to a head with the Chapter 11 filing for Spirit Airlines, which will remove some excess capacity – more of which later.
European airlines had also seen extremely high profitability in summer 2023. Things look worse this year, but the results are actually good when compared to historic averages. Note that SAS emerged from bankruptcy protection in August, and has not filed results for recent quarters.
In China, one might expect to see better profits, given the strong traffic recovery this year, and the recovery in international travel. However, the combined operating margin of the ‘Big 3’ state-owned airlines was just 1-2%. These airlines give no commentary on the market conditions in their stock exchange filings, but it is presumed that profitability is not their number one priority, with the rebuilding of capacity and networks being more of a driver. Anecdotally, it also appears they are poor at yield management and slow to react to market pressures.
Despite some headwinds in Q3, several airlines made more positive statements about the outlook for winter 2024-2025.
In Asia, several pointed to strong forward bookings, and the continued recovery in international traffic. European airlines also generally made upbeat comments on bookings and passenger demand. The story in the US is a little different, with airlines pointing to better capacity management, with several having lowered their capacity growth plans, or even decided to cut year-on-year seat kilometres (ASKs).
The second chart shows Cirium forward schedule data for the coming season, comparing the latest schedule to that in place back in July. The US market has been highlighted, where capacity plans have been cut significantly, led by the low-cost sector. This includes adjustments made at JetBlue, Southwest Airlines and Spirit. The latter had already announced the removal of 23 A320ceo family aircraft from the fleet in a deal with GA Telesis.
Airline Capacity Plans for Winter 2024-2025
Source: Cirium schedules data
Back in July, global capacity for Q4 was up 8.5% over 2023. This has now fallen to 6.5%, even though the July forward schedule still had some airlines with incomplete data. The US airlines have driven this change, as well as those in Latin America. US capacity in December 2024 was due to expand by 6.3% year-on-year, but this has now been cut by more than half, with the latest schedule only up 2.8% over 2023. The accompanying table summarises US airline capacity, by carrier. All carriers except Southwest and Allegiant have cut growth plans, but the absolute figures for December now show a marked contrast between the three largest airlines and the low-cost sector.
US Airline Capacity Growth (December 2024 vs. December 2023)
December 2024 ASKs (as at July)
December 2024 ASKs (as at November)
United
9.7%
6.0%
American
8.0%
4.1%
Delta
9.8%
6.3%
Southwest
-5.2%
-5.1%
Alaska
9.4%
2.9%
JetBlue
-0.7%
-1.3%
Spirit
-0.2%
-17.8%
Frontier
15.1%
2.1%
Allegiant
15.7%
16.2%
Slower capacity growth is undoubtedly a positive for airlines over the coming quarters. Some of this is due to the continued issues with Pratt & Whitney GTF-powered aircraft, where the stored fleet of over 600 A320/A321neos would add around 1.5% to global capacity if they were fully utilised. This, combined with a lack of new deliveries by Boeing, is certainly a factor in airlines’ plans at present, but may provide a bonus for airline investors as we enter 2025.
As we race towards the end of the year, I’ve examined how values and lease rates for spare engines have evolved in 2024, and what has driven the significant movements in this market.
Overall, Market Values for engines that power narrowbody aircraft have risen by around 12.3% over the last five-year period (on a fleet-weighted average basis). With the demand for single-aisle passenger aircraft rebounding post the pandemic, coupled with expensive new materials and high inflation on OEM list pricing, new-generation engine values have strengthened. Further, as the engine shop visit turnaround times increased, attention has turned to the green time remaining on the previous-generation engines that could be deployed into service, thereby increasing the value of maintenance on these engines as well as the asset market value. Lease Rates have exhibited strong increases as well over the last five years.
Meanwhile, values for engines powering other asset classes such as regional jet, regional turboprop and widebody have not yet returned fully to pre-pandemic levels (on a fleet-weighted average basis).
In the regionals sector, demand has been slower to trickle through; and on the twin-aisle sector, OEMs tend to tie in list prices with comprehensive engine maintenance programmes, coupled with lower utilisation on twin-aisles meaning fewer spares are needed. Widebody engine Lease Rates, however, have risen over the last few years and surpassed their pre-pandemic levels.
Source: Cirium Core, Ascend Consultancy analysis
Looking more closely at the key single-aisle associated engines over the last year, we can observe the correlation between Values and Lease Rates for previous-generation powerplants (CFM56-5B, -7B, V2527) rising strongly on the back of more modest increases or stability in the Values and Lease Rates of the new-generation engines (PW1127G, Leap-1A and Leap-1B). A notable exception here is the PW1127G, where Lease Rates saw increases of up to 30% as a result of the scale of the powder-metal contamination issues resulting in the wide-scale aircraft grounding (564 A320neo family aircraft stored) and the removal of an average of around 1,100 engines throughout 2024.
Source: Cirium Core, Ascend Consultancy analysis
Turning to the twin-aisle sector, there is less correlation between the technology of the engines. Rather, the notable increases in both Market Value and Market Lease Rates have been on the engines that support the Airbus A330ceo or the Boeing 777-200LR/300ER platforms, both of which have seen substantial improvement in their values in 2024.
As long-haul traffic recovered in 2024, these workhorses of the twin-aisle segment have proven the preferred choice for airlines re-deploying this capacity.
In addition, both aircraft types offer conversion potential to freighter configuration, increasing the demand for spare engines. Of the A330 engine choices, although the GE CF6-80E1 has shown the largest increases this year, it trails behind both the Pratt & Whitney PW4168 and the Rolls-Royce Trent 772 when compared to pre-pandemic levels, with only the latter engine seeing its values and lease rates higher than pre-pandemic due to these engines typically having more green time available, with several examples still on their first run.
Source: Cirium Core, Ascend Consultancy analysis
The increase in the value of maintenance particularly, for the engines that power single-aisles, has led us to increase our expectations for their longer-term values as well. In fact, our analysis of the depreciation of the value of the engine overhaul and life-limited part stack has shown that these are falling less rapidly than before, and consequently we made several changes to how much we depreciate these into the future. For key single-aisle engine types such as the CFM56-5B, CFM56-7B, and the IAE V2500-A5, depreciation through their Phase 2 (stable phase) has been reduced to 4% per annum, resulting in stronger residual values for the Airbus A320ceo and Boeing 737NG platforms they power. Furthermore, engine OEMs have advised that the technological improvements that are in development currently are expected to be retrofittable. Therefore, such engines are now not expected to see their values decline prematurely due to replacement by a more efficient version of the same engine.
To find out more about how these affect aircraft values and lease rates, or to find a similar summary of our aircraft values, please join the Cirium Ascend Consultancy webinar on 12 December where I will be joined by Rob Morris and George Dimitroff to take stock of this year and look ahead to 2025. In the meantime, if you enjoyed this analysis, please take a moment to consider voting for us as your Appraiser of the Year; you can cast your vote here.
On the back of growth in global trade, especially the booming e-commerce, and continuing capacity constraints on maritime shipping, international cargo market is showing strong growth in 2024 again. According to IATA’s figures, demand for air freight rose by 11.4% in August, representing the ninth consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth, with overall levels reaching heights not seen since the record peaks of 2021. Just one month later, IATA’s figures shows that air freight rose again by 9.4% in September, representing the 14th consecutive month of growth.
According to Cirium’s tracked utilization data, in terms of tracked number of departing freighter aircraft, tracked aircraft number has increased by 32% globally between the first 10 months of 2024, over the same period of 2019.
For the top 10 ranking air freight markets, China’s growth leads the way with 85% growth, followed by United Arab Emirates at 48% and Hong Kong SAR at 45%. as shown in the below chart. The United States is still the largest air freight market with growth of 28%. The United Kingdom is the only country that has declined at -2% in the top 10 list.
Source: Cirium Core, commercial widebody & single aisle freighters
China as the global manufacturing centre, benefits hugely from the surge in e-commerce demand given the country’s dominating position in global trade and export, which therefore has led to the booming of its air freight sector. However, China’s current dedicated cargo fleet especially the widebody fleet seems to be lagging the pace in which international trade demand has been grown and appeared to be not matching the country’s status as a global manufacturing centre.
Various comments have gone around in the market recently, about that there are plenty of widebody freighter requests in Asia, especially in China/Hong Kong.
The logistics companies are eager to get more space, but the operators cannot offer enough capacity which has consequently driven up shipping prices.
To understand the magnitude of Chinese carriers’ freighter capacity supply shortfall towards the above mentioned situation, number of tracked outbound freighter aircraft from China by domestic carriers is assessed below, and is compared with number of tracked outbound freighter aircraft by foreign carriers from China.
Source: Cirium Core, commercial widebody & single aisle freighters
As shown in the above chart, number of tracked outbound freighter aircraft by domestic freight carriers has been more than doubled during the first 10 months of 2024, compared with the pre-pandemic level.
During this period, according to Cirium’s fleet data, China’s freighter fleet (including both narrowbody and widebody) has grown from just less than 160 aircraft in 2019 to around 230 in 2024, with widebody freighter fleet grown from less than 50 aircraft to around 90.
The growth of domestic freighter fleet seems to be fast but is such growth enough to fulfill the demand?
As shown in the below chart, when compared with the above chart, number of tracked outbound freighter aircraft from China by foreign freight carriers is 126% more than domestic freight carriers.
In addition, when compare with pre-pandemic level, number of tracked outbound freighter aircraft from China by foreign freight carriers has grown by 51% after the pandemic.
Source: Cirium Core, commercial widebody & single aisle freighters
In the short term, the outlook for air cargo market is positive, with businesses replenishing inventories in preparation for the year-end festive season. In the longer term, if China can withhold its position as the global manufacturing centre as well as sustaining the robust development momentum of its e-commerce sector, despite the challenges it also faces with ongoing geopolitical tensions with other countries and regions which may impact China’s export and international trading, the country will need to further expand its domestic freighter fleet power especially in the widebody category as a means to compete with foreign operators for dominance in the local market.
Nevertheless, persistent OEM delays and supply chain disruptions continue to pose challenges to carriers in acquiring either new freighters or converted freighters.
This requires domestic carriers to have a long-term strategic vision in terms of anticipating future growth needs, and decisively place orders with OEMs to lock in earlier future delivery slots before OEMs’ slots are filled by orders from other carriers.
Chinese carriers currently have around 10 remaining orders for the current generation 777 freighters, but no orders have been placed yet for the new A350F and 777-8F. The latter two types have a combined orderbook of well over 100 aircraft to date, and deliveries are expected to only begin after 2026 and 2028 respectively.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s recent webinar on the freighter market is available to view on demand. WATCH NOW.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy is trusted by clients across the aviation industry to provide accurate, timely, and insightful aircraft appraisals. The team provides the valuations and analysis the industry relies on to understand the market outlook, evaluate risks and identify opportunities.
Eric Tamang, Valuations Analyst, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
Towards the end of the year, the advanced air mobility (AAM) market reflected the changing seasons with a gradual cooling, influenced by spiking interest rates and the rising cost of capital. Yet, in the face of these headwinds, the number of commitments recorded in Cirium’s database increased to over 14,815 as of 11 October 2024, with over 900 secured since our last update in July 2024.
eVTOLs – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)
The eVTOL – UAM sector has generated the most activity in the market both in terms of the number of aircraft in development, and commitments received to date. Since the last update in July 2024, the sector has attracted 416 new order commitments. The space now has a total of slightly over 11,000 order commitments captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer. Eve Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to lead the sector with 2,900 and 1,550 commitments respectively.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 11th October 2024
The global market for eVTOLs shows a varied regional distribution, with strong order commitments in North America (4,686), Asia-Pacific (3,903) and Europe (1,938), driven by differing levels of technological advancement, regulatory backing and investment interest.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 11th October 2024
Certification Issues Delay Demonstration
There have been a number of exciting announcements where we hoped to see the AAM sector take off. One such instance was the Paris Olympics, where Volocopter intended to operate an air taxi service, but this did not happen due to delays in certification of the aircraft’s engines.
Another much anticipated event is the 2025 World Expo in Osaka, where there were plans to operate flying taxis.
However, all four operators (Japan Airlines, ANA Holdings, Marubeni and SkyDrive) have cancelled these plans due to safety certification delays, and the operators are still planning to conduct demonstration flights without passengers.
So What Are the Different Aspects That Need Certification?
Governing bodies like EASA, CAA and FAA collaborate with aircraft manufacturers to develop a set of regulations that guarantee the safety and airworthiness of an aircraft throughout its design, production, and modification phases. Manufacturers are required to carry out extensive testing programmes to demonstrate compliance with these standards.
eVTOLs are a new type of aircraft with technologies and concepts that have never been certificated before. As such, authorities are collaborating with manufacturers to write the rulebook on eVTOL certification.
According to David Solar, head of general aviation and vertical take-off and landing at EASA, the certification process for an eVTOL propeller differs from that of a conventional aircraft.
The design of the propeller is tailored to the specific aircraft configuration, considering factors such as the aircraft’s objectives and the transition from vertical to horizontal flight.
Manufacturers must evaluate loading conditions, perform fatigue tests, and demonstrate that the propeller is suitable for flight.
In addition, the different flight paths of cargo and passenger aircraft could result in different certification requirements. Cargo aircraft operating outside of cities can have lower security standards, but more stringent requirements could apply to passenger aircraft and cargo operations over congested areas.
Another aspect to certify is the use of modern electric powertrains. One major challenge is balancing battery energy density with payload capacity. The battery’s weight affects the propulsion required to keep the aircraft airborne, ultimately impacting range performance. Advances in battery weight-to-power ratio and aerodynamic efficiency are crucial for improving eVTOL performance.
Last but not least are certification of the infrastructure needed to support the operation of these aircraft such as the airspace and vertiports. With vertiports being scattered around the city, the impact of noise could be detrimental. As for airspace, these aircraft would utilise low attitude airspace which is already quite congested in certain cities with general aviation aircraft. Ensuring proper airspace management and separation could be a challenge.
Rolls-royce to Divest Electric Engine Division
Engines for eVTOLs will be provided by specialist engine manufacturers rather than the aircraft OEM, following the same model as traditional aircraft designs. In the market, there are several electric engine suppliers, including both traditional engine OEMs and new entrants.
Towards the end of 2023, Rolls-Royce, a high-profile engine OEM, announced that it was open to offers from prospective buyers for its Electrical engine division.
However, at the end of September 2024, Rolls-Royce made an announcement stating that it had elected to shut down its electrical propulsion unit called Rolls-Royce Electrical. This decision came after failing to find a buyer for the business, according to Aviation Week.
As a result of this development, UK-based Vertical Aerospace’s VX4 is now left searching for alternative options since Rolls-Royce was its chosen engine partner. Despite this setback, Vertical Aerospace insists that they are still on track to meet the CAA certification timeline which has been revised from 2024 to either 2025 or 2026.
According to Aerospace Global News reports, Rolls-Royce’s decision to divest from its electrical propulsion unit is “driven by their need to readdress their balance sheet and focus on investments with short- and medium-term returns”. This suggests that Rolls-Royce anticipates any returns in the electric space will be a long-term prospect, which begs questions such as –
Will there be a domino effect, with more similar announcements of divestment or changes in strategy, from other major players within the industry? Such announcements could have cascading effects on the overall landscape of electric aviation, including the eVTOL sector.
Will the announcement affect investor confidence in the electric aviation industry? Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in the growth and development of emerging industries, and any shifts in sentiment may have repercussions on funding and future investments.
Will this divestment announcement alter the competitive dynamics within the eVTOL industry? It could create gaps or opportunities that other companies or new entrants may seek to fill. New partnerships or collaborations could also emerge as companies reevaluate their strategies and seek alternative solutions.
Time will be the ultimate judge of how sentiments regarding this divestment will resonate across the eVTOL industry.
Business Electric – Multi-Engine
In the business electric sector, Electra’s eSTOL has received almost 1,350 order commitments, including from notable clients like the helicopter lessor Bristow Group. However, the identities of the majority of these order commitments remain undisclosed. Aura Aero’s ERA holds second place with 570 order commitments. Heart Aerospace’s ES-30 follows in third place with over 530 order commitments after the ES-19 programme was cancelled and switched to the ES-30.
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 11th October 2024
The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us.
