The 2026 Middle East conflict shocked a well and long-established hub-and-spoke airline ecosystem. Since the beginning, Cirium has kept clients and global media abreast of developments, and we are well-suited to analyze the daily cancellation and schedule trends.
The Middle East Carriers Connect Continents
The Middle Eastern carriers and hubs are critical for long-haul passengers. The 2026 Middle East conflict has directly impacted intercontinental airline connectivity, and in particular, between Europe, Asia, and Australasia.
For instance, Cirium has analysed passenger share between continents, comparing 30 global international airlines. Emirates alone carries over 13% of Europe-to-Asia passengers and more than 31% between Europe and Australasia. Qatar Airways and Etihad further reinforce this concentration, meaning that on some of the world’s longest and most transfer-dependent routes, a small number of Gulf carriers collectively control a significant portion of capacity and passenger traffic.
5M Disrupted Passengers in the Early Weeks of the Conflict
A weeks-long conflict has disrupted the travel plans of leisure and business travelers alike. Our rough estimate suggests that around 5 million passengers were impacted by flight cancellations between February 28 and March 11, 2026 — though this remains a high-level approximation covering cancellations between the Middle East and destinations outside the region, excluding intra-Middle East flights. The estimate assumes an average load factor of 80% and roughly 242 seats per flight, recognizing that capacity varies significantly by aircraft type and route.
The Immediate Impact: Cancellations Peaked and a Return to (Semi) Normalcy
An Initial Shock
When the conflict began, Cirium data showed an immediate and severe shock to Middle East departures at the onset, tempered by a steady normalization. For instance, on February 28, around 37% of flights were cancelled or did not operate, but within the first days of the conflict, cancellation rates peaked above 65%, with more than 2,300 daily departures grounded. This early phase reflected a near-system-wide disruption, where airlines and airspace constraints combined to remove well over half of scheduled flying across the region.
Slow and Steady Recovery
From mid-March onward, a clear recovery trend emerged. Cancellation rates decline consistently week by week, falling into the 20-30% range, then into the teens by early April. As of April 6, the latest data we’ve analyzed at the time of writing, cancellations have dropped below 10-11%, with total daily cancellations under 250 flights. The region has moved from acute shock to gradual stabilization, with the exception of non-Middle Eastern carriers, who have generally not resumed service.
The table below reflects the cancellations or no-flies (flights that didn’t operate but were not officially canceled, from the Middle East, from February 28, 2026 to April 6, 2026):
| Date | Flights Scheduled | Cancelled or No Fly | Cancelled or No Fly % |
| 2026-02-28 | 3,759 | 1,395 | 37.11% |
| 2026-03-01 | 3,830 | 2,504 | 65.38% |
| 2026-03-02 | 3,584 | 2,330 | 65.01% |
| 2026-03-03 | 3,560 | 2,341 | 65.76% |
| 2026-03-04 | 3,663 | 2,238 | 61.10% |
| 2026-03-05 | 3,798 | 2,178 | 57.35% |
| 2026-03-06 | 3,646 | 2,073 | 56.86% |
| 2026-03-07 | 3,503 | 1,871 | 53.41% |
| 2026-03-08 | 3,572 | 2,020 | 56.55% |
| 2026-03-09 | 3,322 | 1,591 | 47.89% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3,199 | 1,458 | 45.58% |
| 2026-03-11 | 3,390 | 1,671 | 49.29% |
| 2026-03-12 | 3,242 | 1,508 | 46.51% |
| 2026-03-13 | 2,953 | 1,200 | 40.64% |
| 2026-03-14 | 2,987 | 1,173 | 39.27% |
| 2026-03-15 | 2,671 | 835 | 31.26% |
| 2026-03-16 | 2,550 | 864 | 33.88% |
| 2026-03-17 | 2,678 | 910 | 33.98% |
| 2026-03-18 | 2,898 | 1,000 | 34.51% |
| 2026-03-19 | 2,608 | 686 | 26.30% |
| 2026-03-20 | 2,493 | 557 | 22.34% |
| 2026-03-21 | 2,565 | 503 | 19.61% |
| 2026-03-22 | 2,615 | 554 | 21.19% |
| 2026-03-23 | 2,452 | 424 | 17.29% |
| 2026-03-24 | 2,459 | 448 | 18.22% |
| 2026-03-25 | 2,509 | 473 | 18.85% |
| 2026-03-26 | 2,508 | 438 | 17.46% |
| 2026-03-27 | 2,442 | 422 | 17.28% |
| 2026-03-28 | 2,489 | 356 | 14.30% |
| 2026-03-29 | 2,311 | 242 | 10.47% |
| 2026-03-30 | 2,291 | 270 | 11.79% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2,225 | 213 | 9.57% |
| 2026-04-01 | 2,443 | 311 | 12.73% |
| 2026-04-02 | 2,434 | 283 | 11.63% |
| 2026-04-03 | 2,323 | 270 | 11.62% |
| 2026-04-04 | 2,371 | 211 | 8.90% |
| 2026-04-05 | 2,313 | 189 | 8.17% |
| 2026-04-06 | 2,273 | 247 | 10.87% |
Impacted Airports in the Middle East
The impact of the conflict varies sharply by airport, with a divide between disrupted regional airports and slightly more resilient global hubs. The largest hubs, Dubai (DXB) and Abu Dhabi (AUH), maintained cancellation rates around 48-50%. In ordinary times, that counts as a severe disruption. However, Doha International Airport (DOH) had nearly 80% of its operations impacted. Tel Aviv (TLV) experienced extremely high disruption (around 86%), reflecting direct exposure to bombing threat.
The Airlines Adapt
On the part of the airlines, Qatar Airways saw very high disruption at around 77%, significantly worse than its competitors Emirates and Etihad, at 32% and 49% respectively.
Among major international carriers, the U.S. and European airlines halted operations aggressively: Major carriers including Delta Air Lines, United, American, and Air Canada have suspended operations. Carriers such as British Airways and Lufthansa maintained partial operations where operationally feasible. It is not possible to predict a return to normal operating schedules at this point. That lays squarely in the domain of the airlines themselves.
Schedule Reductions
The three major Gulf carriers (Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad) have drastically cut April capacity versus the pre-conflict schedule. In total, they have removed more than 5.4M seats and more than 18,000 flights for the month of April alone. The trend is likely to continue in the near term.
The table below shows recent changes on major city-pairs.
| Airline | City Pair | Pre-Conflict (Feb 27 snapshot) | Post-Conflict Flight Reductions (Apr 1 snapshot) |
| Emirates | Dubai – Singapore | High-frequency widebody (28+ weekly) | −15% to −25% |
| Emirates | Dubai – London Heathrow | Very high frequency | −5% to −10% |
| Qatar Airways | Doha – Bangkok | High-frequency | −20% to −35% |
| Qatar Airways | Doha – Paris CDG | Daily / multi-daily | −5% to −15% |
| Etihad | Abu Dhabi – Sydney | Daily long-haul | −30% to −40% |
| Etihad | Abu Dhabi – New York JFK | Daily | −10% to −20% |
| Emirates | Dubai – New York JFK | Multiple daily A380/777 | −10% to −20% |
| Qatar Airways | Doha – Kuala Lumpur | High-frequency | −20% to −30% |
| Emirates | Dubai – Melbourne | High-capacity long-haul | −25% to −35% |
| Etihad | Abu Dhabi – London Heathrow | Multiple daily | −5% to −10% |
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