Commercial Aviation Monitor

Aviation insights by Cirium Ascend Consultancy

The Commercial Aviation Monitor leverages Cirium data and Ascend Consultancy analysis and insight, providing everything you need to know about the sector.

• Healthy delivery volumes for Airbus and Boeing commercial aircraft in September have prompted Cirium to increase its full-year estimate by 50 aircraft to 1,390 shipments. Cumulative 2025 deliveries hit 927 by end-September, 67% of the full-year projection. Ongoing supply-chain issues mean full-year targets remain challenging.
• Cirium forward schedule data still shows growth in most markets, with October up 4.8% year-on-year, a slight improvement on recent months. However, many domestic markets are weakening, with the schedules trailing October 2024 levels in India, Japan, and Mexico.
• This month’s focus: The US commercial aviation market. Domestic capacity recovered to 2019 levels before international capacity, in large part due to the reduction of China flight volumes. Within North America, US capacity to/from Mexico has increased, while capacity with Canada has stalled and is projected to decline – a longer-term trend that has accelerated in 2025.

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