Plan future aircraft engine demand with fewer assumptions
Gain an independent 10-year view of future engine performance restoration demand to support capacity, commercial, asset and investment decisions with Cirium’s Engine Shop Visit Forecast
Forecasting future engine maintenance demand is difficult to time
Long-term engine decisions are being made in a market where maintenance demand is shaped by changing fleet composition, aircraft utilization, operating environments, engine-specific performance and the transition between mature and new-generation engine programs.
MROs, OEMs, suppliers, airlines, lessors and financial institutions need to understand not only how the engine fleet will evolve, but how that fleet will be flown and what that means for future performance restoration demand. Organizations face critical questions:
- How many performance restoration shop visits will future fleets require?
- Which engine programs will drive future demand?
- Where and when will that demand emerge?
- How will the aftermarket opportunity shift between mature and new-generation engines?
- What capacity workforce and inventory will be needed to support it?
- What assumptions should underpin commercial, asset and investment decisions?
Without a trusted view of future shop visit demand, organizations risk relying on broad fleet averages, fragmented data and assumptions that do not adequately reflect how individual aircraft are operated.
Cirium Engine Shop Visit Forecast brings fleet, utilization and maintenance demand together to provide a more defensible view of where engine maintenance demand is heading.
Make engine decisions with a more defensible view of future demand
Plan MRO capacity with greater confidence. Anticipate future shop visit volumes by engine program and geography to inform facility, slot, workforce and capability planning.
Size aftermarket and revenue opportunities. Understand required shop visit volumes and estimated value to support market sizing, revenue planning and commercial prioritization.
Inform production and inventory decisions. See how demand could shift across mature and new-generation engine programs to guide materials, component and inventory planning.
Strengthen financial and asset decisions. Benchmark maintenance exposure and engine demand to support reserves, valuations, portfolio strategy, investment cases and risk analysis.
Why Cirium’s Engine Shop Visit Forecast?
Engine shop-visit forecasts ultimately depend on the assumptions that sit underneath them.
Cirium Engine Shop Visit Forecast is built aircraft by aircraft, combining observed utilization with market-calibrated maintenance intervals and specialist engine expertise to provide a consistent, independent view of future engine maintenance demand.
With Engine Shop Visit Forecast, you can access:
- Aircraft-level modelling based on observed utilization, using tracked hours, cycles, and average stage length rather than applying a fleet average
- Maintenance intervals modelled with market evidence, with time-on-wing curves calibrated against real market datapoints gathered through Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s work with operators, lessors and MROs.
- Real-world operating conditions, recognizing that environmental conditions can change maintenance intervals between regions.
- Connected Cirium intelligence, bringing together fleet, firm orders, retirements, utilization and forecast data using consistent nomenclature.
- An independent market perspective, providing an external benchmark against internal and other market assumptions.
- Specialist review, with the forecast reviewed by Cirium engine specialists and tested against known shop visit volumes.
What do you get with Engine Shop Visit Forecast?
Access the industry’s independent 10-year view of future engine restoration demand, built one aircraft at a time, not from a fleet average.
Understand the outlook
- Expert interpretation of changes across major engine programs
- Understand what is driving changes in future maintenance demand
- Clear explanation of the underlying assumptions and methodology
Explore the forecast
- Interactive dashboard to explore future shop visit demand
- Filter by engine series, sub series, geography, operator and year
- Investigate different engine programs and markets
Work with the raw data
- Access the published forecast data for deeper analysis
- Incorporate outputs into capacity, revenue, inventory, investment, reserve and valuation models
- Analyze flying hours, flight cycles, aircraft in service, required shop visits and estimated shop visit value
See where engine maintenance demand is heading
Understand future engine shop visit demand, size the opportunity and strengthen the assumptions behind capacity, commercial, asset and investment decisions.